Ambavyo Deni La Kenya litalipwa 30BN$ - CHINA

To determine if SGR debt is unsustainable I try
to figure out how much has to be payed
annually.
Semi concessional loan: $1.6 billion
Interest rate: 2% or $32 million (total $640
million)
Grace period: 2014-2021
Maturity: 2034
Annual payments 2014-2021: $32 million
(total $224 millions)
Annual payments 2022-2034: $155 million
(total $2.015 billions)
Commercial loan: $ 1.633 billions
Interest rate: 6 month-LIBOR+3.6%: $73.5
million (in total $1.1 billion)
Grace period: 2014-2019
Maturity: 2029
Annual payments at current 6 month LIBOR
(0.9%) 2014-2019: $73.5 million ($367.5
million)
Annual payments at current 6 month LIBOR
(0.9%) 2020-2029: $236.8 million ($2.368
billion in total)
Insurance for commercial loan: 6.93% -
Maturity 2017 - Annual payments 2014-2017:
$37.72 million (in total 113.17 million)
Total annual payments:
2014-2017 - $143.0 million (total: $429.66
million)
2018-2019 - $105.5 million (total: $211
million)
2020-2021 - $268.8 million (total: $537.6
million)
2022-2029 - $391.8 million (total: $3,134.4
million)
2030-2034 - $155.0 million (total: $775
million)
Total repayable sum 2014-2034: $5.1 billion.
Tax revenue 2014/2015: $10 billion
Annual payments as percentage of low-case
tax revenues:
2014-2017 - 1.43%
2018-2019 - 1.055%
2020-2021 - 2.688%
2022-2029 - 3.918%
2030-2034 - 1.55%
Conclusion: Even if growth of tax revenues
remains flat throughout the payment period
Kenya would never have to pay more then 4%
of its annual revenues to settle its outstanding
debt with China Eximbank. To me this looks
quite sustainable especially taken into
consideration that tax revenue grew 15%
annually between 2005 and 2015 .


KRA collects 18bn$ annually figure that could reach 25bn$ by 2023-2025


And 40bn$ annually by 2030 assuming ZERO MINERAL DISCOVERED ZERO TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENT AND ZERO INCREASE IN POPULATION GROWTH

siungeweka kenya forum?????????
au unaonaje???????

SGR has to be extended to Uganda to make economic sense.