Izack Mwanahapa
JF-Expert Member
- Apr 21, 2011
- 497
- 236
1. Introduction
Tanzania expects to have a general election in October 25 this year. Tanzania has managed to hold multiparty democratic general elections after every five years since 1995. The Tanzanian general election of 2015 will be the 5th election to be held since the restoration of a multi-party system in 1992. Voters will elect the President, Members of Parliament and Councilors. The current Tanzanian population is about 51 million people out of that 24 million people which are 47 percent of the total population are registered in voter?s book 2015 and they are expected to participate in General election in October.
2. Contesting political parties
Eight political parties succeeded to nominate the presidential candidates who are currently representing their parties for presidential post. The political parties which are participating in presidential race are CCM, ACT Wazalendo, CHADEMA, ADC, TLP, UDP, NRA AND CHAUMMA. In members of parliament election the ruling party CCM is leading by having a large number of candidates because they succeeded to nominate the candidates in all 265 constituencies, followed by ACT Wazalendo which succeeded to get candidates in 219 constituencies, Chadema got 130 candidates followed by other parties which have less than 50 candidates per part.
3. The Powerful rivals in Presidential seat
Even though eight political parties accomplished to nominate the presidential candidates to represent their parties but in fact the major rivals in presidential post are CCM and Chadema. CCM which is represented by Dr. John Pombe Magufuli and CHADEMA candidate who is supported by the coalition of political parties called (UKAWA) formed by four political parties Chadema, NCCR, CUF and NLD represented by the former Prime Minister of Tanzania Hon. Edward Ngoyai Lowassa. Another presidential candidate who appears to be at the third place in presidential race is Mama Anna Mughwira from ACT Wazalendo the only woman who is contesting for presidency in this election.
4. The Influence and Challenges of presidential Contenders
Both candidates especially the giant ones (Magufuli and Lowassa) seem to have great mass influence and they are succeeding to attract big number of people in their campaign meetings. Some of the citizens believe that the country is not going forward due to leaders? indecision, decision delay or doing wrong decisions in important matters but both CCM and CHADEMA/UKAWA candidates share one character in their history of public service and that is quick decision making in significant public matters, commonly known as ?Doing hard decisions? for public interest.
Even though all the candidates are popular but the nature of their popularity differs;
What makes John Magufuli (CCM candidate) popular is hardworking records in different Ministries he worked for the past 20 years, the history which portrays him as a man of action in people?s mind that is why even his campaign slogan is connected to his recent ministry of Works ?Hapa Kazi tu?. However he is facing some challenges because according to CCM constitution the President is must become a party leader (Party Chairperson) the people who challenge him within his party says that ?he has little experience in party leadership and machinery because he has no experience of leading the party from the local to national level.? (Prof. Mwandosya 2015).
Also opposition parties criticize Dr. Magufuli by involving himself in the decision to sell government quarters to civil servants when he was the Minister for Lands and Human Settlement during the third regime this decision which perceived by the people as a wrong decision as the government has to rent ? lease accommodation for civil servants.
Edward Lowassa popularity apart from hard working history in parliament and different ministries he worked for, he has some other issues which enriched his status. He contested for presidential party nomination (CCM) in 1995 and after failing ?he was a key architect of Kikwete?s landslide victory in 2005,? (S. Sibeko at Quartz) he had and currently has the name recognition, fundraising prowess and access to the party machine that his allies say makes him outstanding candidate.
He has a great degree of experience as a Prime Minister, including over twenty years in the house of parliament. He has the political credentials of a typical modern presidential candidate, thus he will not have to be trained for the job. But his resignation in 2008 after being implicated in an energy scandal (Richmond) made some people nervous that it might give his opponents an opening but this has now rallied behind the ex-PM Fedrick Sumaye who say ?the allegations against Lowassa were never proven.?
Also in his new party CHADEMA/UKAWA some people were not comfortable with his nomination for presidency hence two senior leaders Dr. Wilbroad Slaa who was the general secretary of Chadema and Prof. Lipumba who was the chairperson of CUF. who anticipated representing UKAWA for presidency from two political parties Chadema and CUF resigned their positions and quitted politics
5. The political situation within the political parties
Up to now the internal political situation in the major parties is not settled due to the scars left by opinion polls in different areas during the party?s interior nomination for presidential, Members of parliament and Councillors.
CCM was greatly divided during internal presidential nomination where some candidates blamed the NEC for unfair and unconstitutional decisions hence some of party members including the two former prime ministers and their followers decided to move from CCM and joining to the alliance of opposition parties, the issue of corruption dominated and damaged the Members of parliament and local government election party nomination.
CHADEMA/ UKAWA also is faced great internal problem because they agreed to have a unified nominees from Presidential, Members of parliament to local government level but in some areas the coalition political parties failed to reach agreement amicably so there are some constituencies where the fight for who should contest between coalition parties is unsolved.
In presidential nomination process also there was strong turbulence after the nomination of the former Prime Minister Edward Ngoyai Lowassa few days after joining the opposition coalition via Chadema and knocking out the previous UKAWA contestants Prof. Ibrahim Lipumba and Dr. Wilbroad Slaa. The decision forced Dr. Slaa and Prof. Lipumba to resign their party positions and they proclaim to retire from party politics.
The internal misunderstanding in CCM and CHADEMA/ UKAWA seem to be advantageous for the prosperity and promotion of the new party ACT Wazalendo because most of the contesters and members took it as an option after fierce battle in their previous parties.
6. Mp?s and Councilors battle
The Mp?s and Councilors battle is still tough for both parties hence the assessment of these leaders is easier and they are closer to the citizens compares to presidential candidates. The researches shows that 47% of the current Mps are at risk of being voted out because they failed to implement their promises and another big problem is that many citizens do not understand the formal duties of Mps or Councilors most of these leaders are blamed for the issues which are above their jurisdiction and some are blamed for poor response to personal requests.
When asked if they would vote their current MP back into parliament, almost half of all Tanzanians (47%) said they would not (Twaweza research 2014). The success of former Mps in this election will depend on their performance for the past 5 years.
7. The peoples opinion
The general election informal debate among the people in different communities is wider than ever before, it seems like everyone is interested in politics. The political consciousness is also stimulated by the role of social media through smart phones where the people are able to share the political news promptly from all over the country.
The debate is spread in all sectors from government offices, hotels, in public transports, in markets etc.
The people seem to be tired with leader?s empty promises, they argue that they still facing the same problem publicized by Mwalimu Nyerere about 50 years ago and that the common problems are: Poverty, health and education they wonder why the problems are unsolved. Most of the citizens promise to vote however some says they will vote for the party and others says they will vote for the right candidate.
8. International community views
The recent falling out between old political allies and the emergence of new alliances in Tanzania has set the stage for the most eagerly anticipated election in the country?s history. It is also an electoral contest that will be closely watched across the region.
The Chief Prosecutor of ICC Fatou Bensouda already said that ?The ICC is keenly watching and following closely what transpiring in Tanzania?s forthcoming General elections and as we did in countries like Kenya, Ivory Coast and Congo we shall expeditiously act with immediate effect on any cases of human rights violation.? (Aljezeera - Africa today segment; August 18, 2015)
9. What makes the 2015th election exceptional?
There are some issues which makes the 2015 general election exceptional compared to the past four general elections. In the past we have never witnessed a big number of officials from the ruling party contesting for party presidential nominee like in this year. The lack of few groomed incumbent and anointed successors running made the nomination a historically wide open race and had attracted an unprecedented 38 candidates looking to succeed President Jakaya Kikwete. In the eyes of community this action seen as a sign of poor preparation within the ruling party because it appeared that after Kikwetes CCM members took presidential post for granted.
The 2015 general election kills the myth that whoever fails in ruling party opinion polls must remain in his or her party silently furthermore the 2015 election kills the myth that whoever emerges as the ruling party?s nominee will be the favorite to be the next president of Tanzania. Some unusual things happened after CCM presidential nominee process the things which totally changed the political sphere in Tanzania
Tanzania's October 25 General Election will be the most tightly contested election in the country's history after hugely popular former Prime Minister, Edward Lowassa, defected from the ruling party to join the main opposition bloc. As nominee, Magufuli will need to unify his party heading into the general election after a divisive nomination fight.
After Lowassa?s defection, a number of key members of the ruling party including the former Prime Minister Fredrick Sumaye, the former minister of internal affairs Dr. Laurence Masha, Members of Parliament, councilors and regional officials followed him to Chadema/ukawa. The shift of powerful senior politicians from the ruling party to opposition has given the opposition a sense of momentum that has been on display at a number of rallies staged in several towns in recent weeks.
For the first time again in Tanzanian history, two former Prime Ministers are firmly in the opposition and they are giving as much as they get what with snippets how their former party is notorious for vote rigging, lacking in democracy and unwilling to hear the cry of the people. For the first time it seems like seriously the opposition Umoja wa Katiba ya Wananchi (Ukawa) alliance will be coming up against a political party machine in CCM that has long been regarded as one of the most disciplined and effective on the continent ? one that has not lost a presidential election since 1961.
10. What should be expected
It is obvious that by currently competitive battle we do not have an anointed candidate who seems to have popular vote in this election cycle, yet. This time however, there is neither a single charismatic candidate nor single powerful political figure, like Mwalimu Nyerere, that could influence the election outcome. The potentials and possibilities of who will be the next president will depend on how the on-going debate, whether on public forums, homes markets, farms and media will be based purely on issues or propaganda.
If the community motivation and involvement in politics will continue until the end of campaigns it appears that the number of voters will rise. For a long time most of the Tanzanians have been ignoring to vote for their leaders due to different reasons. In 2010 the number of registered voters was 20,137,303 but the number of people who appeared in voting was only 8,398,390 so simply 41% of registered voters participated in general election.
This year the number of registered voters is 24,200,000. It seems like things will be the same again in this election (low voters turnout) because even though the voters registration used new BVR system but still maintains the static status (Voting where you have registered), the law does not consider the daily migration of the people. The new registration system BVR did not change the voters ID functionality from static (Voting where you have registered) to dynamic (Voting wherever you are) the system only changed the ID outlook and physical material (From paper laminated ID to Plastic ID).
Looking at the big presidential rivals and members of parliament rallies it seems no one expect to fail. The unexpected unity of the political opposition with Lowassa poses an interesting challenge to the ruling party. At the same time, CCM also picked a candidate John Magufuli who has been distinguished throughout his career as a hard worker and who is not tainted by corruption. This has created an element of excitement and some uncertainty going into the election.
The people expect bigger developmental changes in the upcoming regime. No matter who wins this election, Tanzania?s election play field will no longer be the same.
By, Izack Mwanahapa
0756550005
Tanzania expects to have a general election in October 25 this year. Tanzania has managed to hold multiparty democratic general elections after every five years since 1995. The Tanzanian general election of 2015 will be the 5th election to be held since the restoration of a multi-party system in 1992. Voters will elect the President, Members of Parliament and Councilors. The current Tanzanian population is about 51 million people out of that 24 million people which are 47 percent of the total population are registered in voter?s book 2015 and they are expected to participate in General election in October.
2. Contesting political parties
Eight political parties succeeded to nominate the presidential candidates who are currently representing their parties for presidential post. The political parties which are participating in presidential race are CCM, ACT Wazalendo, CHADEMA, ADC, TLP, UDP, NRA AND CHAUMMA. In members of parliament election the ruling party CCM is leading by having a large number of candidates because they succeeded to nominate the candidates in all 265 constituencies, followed by ACT Wazalendo which succeeded to get candidates in 219 constituencies, Chadema got 130 candidates followed by other parties which have less than 50 candidates per part.
3. The Powerful rivals in Presidential seat
Even though eight political parties accomplished to nominate the presidential candidates to represent their parties but in fact the major rivals in presidential post are CCM and Chadema. CCM which is represented by Dr. John Pombe Magufuli and CHADEMA candidate who is supported by the coalition of political parties called (UKAWA) formed by four political parties Chadema, NCCR, CUF and NLD represented by the former Prime Minister of Tanzania Hon. Edward Ngoyai Lowassa. Another presidential candidate who appears to be at the third place in presidential race is Mama Anna Mughwira from ACT Wazalendo the only woman who is contesting for presidency in this election.
4. The Influence and Challenges of presidential Contenders
Both candidates especially the giant ones (Magufuli and Lowassa) seem to have great mass influence and they are succeeding to attract big number of people in their campaign meetings. Some of the citizens believe that the country is not going forward due to leaders? indecision, decision delay or doing wrong decisions in important matters but both CCM and CHADEMA/UKAWA candidates share one character in their history of public service and that is quick decision making in significant public matters, commonly known as ?Doing hard decisions? for public interest.
Even though all the candidates are popular but the nature of their popularity differs;
What makes John Magufuli (CCM candidate) popular is hardworking records in different Ministries he worked for the past 20 years, the history which portrays him as a man of action in people?s mind that is why even his campaign slogan is connected to his recent ministry of Works ?Hapa Kazi tu?. However he is facing some challenges because according to CCM constitution the President is must become a party leader (Party Chairperson) the people who challenge him within his party says that ?he has little experience in party leadership and machinery because he has no experience of leading the party from the local to national level.? (Prof. Mwandosya 2015).
Also opposition parties criticize Dr. Magufuli by involving himself in the decision to sell government quarters to civil servants when he was the Minister for Lands and Human Settlement during the third regime this decision which perceived by the people as a wrong decision as the government has to rent ? lease accommodation for civil servants.
Edward Lowassa popularity apart from hard working history in parliament and different ministries he worked for, he has some other issues which enriched his status. He contested for presidential party nomination (CCM) in 1995 and after failing ?he was a key architect of Kikwete?s landslide victory in 2005,? (S. Sibeko at Quartz) he had and currently has the name recognition, fundraising prowess and access to the party machine that his allies say makes him outstanding candidate.
He has a great degree of experience as a Prime Minister, including over twenty years in the house of parliament. He has the political credentials of a typical modern presidential candidate, thus he will not have to be trained for the job. But his resignation in 2008 after being implicated in an energy scandal (Richmond) made some people nervous that it might give his opponents an opening but this has now rallied behind the ex-PM Fedrick Sumaye who say ?the allegations against Lowassa were never proven.?
Also in his new party CHADEMA/UKAWA some people were not comfortable with his nomination for presidency hence two senior leaders Dr. Wilbroad Slaa who was the general secretary of Chadema and Prof. Lipumba who was the chairperson of CUF. who anticipated representing UKAWA for presidency from two political parties Chadema and CUF resigned their positions and quitted politics
5. The political situation within the political parties
Up to now the internal political situation in the major parties is not settled due to the scars left by opinion polls in different areas during the party?s interior nomination for presidential, Members of parliament and Councillors.
CCM was greatly divided during internal presidential nomination where some candidates blamed the NEC for unfair and unconstitutional decisions hence some of party members including the two former prime ministers and their followers decided to move from CCM and joining to the alliance of opposition parties, the issue of corruption dominated and damaged the Members of parliament and local government election party nomination.
CHADEMA/ UKAWA also is faced great internal problem because they agreed to have a unified nominees from Presidential, Members of parliament to local government level but in some areas the coalition political parties failed to reach agreement amicably so there are some constituencies where the fight for who should contest between coalition parties is unsolved.
In presidential nomination process also there was strong turbulence after the nomination of the former Prime Minister Edward Ngoyai Lowassa few days after joining the opposition coalition via Chadema and knocking out the previous UKAWA contestants Prof. Ibrahim Lipumba and Dr. Wilbroad Slaa. The decision forced Dr. Slaa and Prof. Lipumba to resign their party positions and they proclaim to retire from party politics.
The internal misunderstanding in CCM and CHADEMA/ UKAWA seem to be advantageous for the prosperity and promotion of the new party ACT Wazalendo because most of the contesters and members took it as an option after fierce battle in their previous parties.
6. Mp?s and Councilors battle
The Mp?s and Councilors battle is still tough for both parties hence the assessment of these leaders is easier and they are closer to the citizens compares to presidential candidates. The researches shows that 47% of the current Mps are at risk of being voted out because they failed to implement their promises and another big problem is that many citizens do not understand the formal duties of Mps or Councilors most of these leaders are blamed for the issues which are above their jurisdiction and some are blamed for poor response to personal requests.
When asked if they would vote their current MP back into parliament, almost half of all Tanzanians (47%) said they would not (Twaweza research 2014). The success of former Mps in this election will depend on their performance for the past 5 years.
7. The peoples opinion
The general election informal debate among the people in different communities is wider than ever before, it seems like everyone is interested in politics. The political consciousness is also stimulated by the role of social media through smart phones where the people are able to share the political news promptly from all over the country.
The debate is spread in all sectors from government offices, hotels, in public transports, in markets etc.
The people seem to be tired with leader?s empty promises, they argue that they still facing the same problem publicized by Mwalimu Nyerere about 50 years ago and that the common problems are: Poverty, health and education they wonder why the problems are unsolved. Most of the citizens promise to vote however some says they will vote for the party and others says they will vote for the right candidate.
8. International community views
The recent falling out between old political allies and the emergence of new alliances in Tanzania has set the stage for the most eagerly anticipated election in the country?s history. It is also an electoral contest that will be closely watched across the region.
The Chief Prosecutor of ICC Fatou Bensouda already said that ?The ICC is keenly watching and following closely what transpiring in Tanzania?s forthcoming General elections and as we did in countries like Kenya, Ivory Coast and Congo we shall expeditiously act with immediate effect on any cases of human rights violation.? (Aljezeera - Africa today segment; August 18, 2015)
9. What makes the 2015th election exceptional?
There are some issues which makes the 2015 general election exceptional compared to the past four general elections. In the past we have never witnessed a big number of officials from the ruling party contesting for party presidential nominee like in this year. The lack of few groomed incumbent and anointed successors running made the nomination a historically wide open race and had attracted an unprecedented 38 candidates looking to succeed President Jakaya Kikwete. In the eyes of community this action seen as a sign of poor preparation within the ruling party because it appeared that after Kikwetes CCM members took presidential post for granted.
The 2015 general election kills the myth that whoever fails in ruling party opinion polls must remain in his or her party silently furthermore the 2015 election kills the myth that whoever emerges as the ruling party?s nominee will be the favorite to be the next president of Tanzania. Some unusual things happened after CCM presidential nominee process the things which totally changed the political sphere in Tanzania
Tanzania's October 25 General Election will be the most tightly contested election in the country's history after hugely popular former Prime Minister, Edward Lowassa, defected from the ruling party to join the main opposition bloc. As nominee, Magufuli will need to unify his party heading into the general election after a divisive nomination fight.
After Lowassa?s defection, a number of key members of the ruling party including the former Prime Minister Fredrick Sumaye, the former minister of internal affairs Dr. Laurence Masha, Members of Parliament, councilors and regional officials followed him to Chadema/ukawa. The shift of powerful senior politicians from the ruling party to opposition has given the opposition a sense of momentum that has been on display at a number of rallies staged in several towns in recent weeks.
For the first time again in Tanzanian history, two former Prime Ministers are firmly in the opposition and they are giving as much as they get what with snippets how their former party is notorious for vote rigging, lacking in democracy and unwilling to hear the cry of the people. For the first time it seems like seriously the opposition Umoja wa Katiba ya Wananchi (Ukawa) alliance will be coming up against a political party machine in CCM that has long been regarded as one of the most disciplined and effective on the continent ? one that has not lost a presidential election since 1961.
10. What should be expected
It is obvious that by currently competitive battle we do not have an anointed candidate who seems to have popular vote in this election cycle, yet. This time however, there is neither a single charismatic candidate nor single powerful political figure, like Mwalimu Nyerere, that could influence the election outcome. The potentials and possibilities of who will be the next president will depend on how the on-going debate, whether on public forums, homes markets, farms and media will be based purely on issues or propaganda.
If the community motivation and involvement in politics will continue until the end of campaigns it appears that the number of voters will rise. For a long time most of the Tanzanians have been ignoring to vote for their leaders due to different reasons. In 2010 the number of registered voters was 20,137,303 but the number of people who appeared in voting was only 8,398,390 so simply 41% of registered voters participated in general election.
This year the number of registered voters is 24,200,000. It seems like things will be the same again in this election (low voters turnout) because even though the voters registration used new BVR system but still maintains the static status (Voting where you have registered), the law does not consider the daily migration of the people. The new registration system BVR did not change the voters ID functionality from static (Voting where you have registered) to dynamic (Voting wherever you are) the system only changed the ID outlook and physical material (From paper laminated ID to Plastic ID).
Looking at the big presidential rivals and members of parliament rallies it seems no one expect to fail. The unexpected unity of the political opposition with Lowassa poses an interesting challenge to the ruling party. At the same time, CCM also picked a candidate John Magufuli who has been distinguished throughout his career as a hard worker and who is not tainted by corruption. This has created an element of excitement and some uncertainty going into the election.
The people expect bigger developmental changes in the upcoming regime. No matter who wins this election, Tanzania?s election play field will no longer be the same.
By, Izack Mwanahapa
0756550005