joto la jiwe
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- Sep 4, 2017
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[emoji1] [emoji1]Mauzo yao ya chai largest export yao huwa yanasua. Jubilee imewaweza...
Baada ya kuandika hayo si ungekua ulianza kuweka hizo takwimu... Unangoja nani akuwekeeKwanza ninakupongeza kwa kuona kwamba hesabu za GDP sio kitu cha kuimba sana, kuna vitu vinavyoingiza pesa zinazofanya hiyo GDP iwe kuwa, GDP ni economic prevalence while those tributaries of GDP are termed as economic incidences.
Sasa ni muhimu sana kuzizungumzia kwa undani hizi tributaries za uchumi kati ya hizi nchi mbili, hii itatusaidia kuona nani anafanya vizuri maeneo gani ili mwengine ajifunze, katika kupitia hizo tributaries ni lazima kuwe na takwimu zinazo support hivyo, tena data za karibuni ikiwezekana.
Sasa niwakaribishe wachangiaji wa kila pande wataje maeneo ambayo wanadhani ndiyo hasa yanachangia kukua kwa uchumi wa nchi yao ili tulinganishe na tuone hali ya uchumi unavyoelekea.
Hii Ambayo umeandika hapa ni simplification, yani kama summary vile hata supa computer haiwezi ikakubali swali kama Hilo...Huko nilishapitia, sikupata jibu, jana mimi na yeye tulipiga hesabu ili kuona hiyo namba ilifikiwaje tukashindwa kuipata, na yeye ni shahidi, kama wewe utakuwa na maelezo ya kutosha tusaidie, kwamba mwaka 2010, hizi nchi zilikuwa na GDP $40B kwa Kenya na uchumi umekua kwa wastani wa 5.5% kwa mwaka, ilipofika mwaka 2014 kulifanyika rebasing iliyopandisha uchumi kwa 25%. Tanzania, GDP $31B, mwaka 2010, uchumi umekua kwa wastani wa 7%, rebasing 2015 ilipandisha uchumi kwa 32%, piga hesabu hadi 2016, GDP za nchi hizi zitakua ngapi?, cha kushangaza kwa Tanzania hesabu zinakubaliana na GDP ya sasa, kwa Kenya haziendani, ukitaka ufafanuzi unapewa links ili ujitafutie mwenyewe, je kuna nini nyuma ya pazia?
Dangote investing in a cement factory that is pure FDI. I know for a fact when bonds begin to be utilzed the Kenyan currency stabilised... But what I have an issue here is commercial loans.... You have gone around the issue and reintroduced the same thing... The issue is very simple, I have shown you Kenya's FDI since 2010 is only $3B, I have also shown you that since 2013 we have taken loans amounting to a debt of $18Billion, Now according to what you are saying, Do you want to tell me that of this $18 billion, no project has been completed yet gor the $18B to be reflected in FDI? Cause between isuzu,Peugeot,VW, new international hotels in Nairobi , real estate projects ...you can literaly count that Kenya's FDI and subdivide the investment from news sources and they will add up to Kenya's FDI..Here is the thing, your mixing so many things until you forgot what your saying. Just refer to definition of FDI maybe even in Wikipedia.
In short, Kenyan dept and FDI somehow are two separate things but at the same time are connected. When the gov acquire a loan from foreign sources in order to stimulate the economy, that loan is part of foreign direct investment. But in order for that loan to appear on FDI index, the project has to be up and running. Loans and bonds are calculate in the beginning the moment the funds are secured, but FDI they have to wait until the assets are fully functional. This is where rebasing comes in. When Dangote build his cement factory we didn't put that on our FDI list straightaway, it was calculate after the factory was operation. Same as Kenya SGR loan, at moment you'll see it on the loans list but down the line when the project is fully functional, they will have to rebase the numbers and add those billions into the investment pot and hopefully expand the GDP.
Acha kuleta maneno mengi ya super computer wala nini, ukianzia 2010 kwa Kenya yenye $40B na wastani wa 5.5%, ukijumlisha hiyo hadi 2016 utapata $55.17B, na Tanzania iliyokuwa na $31B 2010 na ukuaji wa 7% itakuwa na $46.51, hapo sojaweka hesabu after rebase kwa nchi zote mbili.Hii Ambayo umeandika hapa ni simplification, yani kama summary vile hata supa computer haiwezi ikakubali swali kama Hilo...
Fungua hio hesabu, eka hesabu za kila mwaka kutoka 2010, year by year for Tz and for Kenya, from 2010,11,12,13.... Mpaka pale utakapo kwama ndo useme hapa nimeshindwa sijui au sielewi hesabu hii alafu hapo ndo uulize usaidizi, sio kila siku kungoja kufanyiwa hesabu yote alafu unaanza viswali... Fanya mwenyewe mpaka pale utashindwa
Sasa hii ndo unaita kupiga hesabu ... Onyesha hesabu imetoka wapi, usiniambie sijui ukijumlisha hesabu after rebase Tanzania inakua $55B...Acha kuleta maneno mengi ya super computer wala nini, ukianzia 2010 kwa Kenya yenye $40B na wastani wa 5.5%, ukijumlisha hiyo hadi 2016 utapata $55.17B, na Tanzania iliyokuwa na $31B 2010 na ukuaji wa 7% itakuwa na $46.51, hapo sojaweka hesabu after rebase kwa nchi zote mbili.
Ukitaka kujua kwamba hizi hesabu hasa ni sawa, angalia gap mwaka 2010 ni $9B, na hata mwaka 2016 imebaki $9, kwa sababu wastani kila mwaka nchi zote hizi zimekua zikiongeza kiwango sawa cha pesa, Kenya inaongeza wastani wa $2.2B na Tanzania 2.17B. ukijumlisha mahesabu after economy rebase, Tanzania GDP inakuwa $55B na Kenya $63B, gap inashuka hadi $8B kwa sababu Tanzania uchumi uliongezeka kwa 32% Na Kenya 25%.
Sasa ninaomba wewe utumie hiyo super computer ili unionyeshe hiyo $70B+ mwaka 2016 imepatikanaje kutoka $40B mwaka 2010, yaani ongezeko la $30B ndani ya miaka sita, ni wastani wa ongezeko la $5B kwa mwaka, wakati kwa sasa Kenya inaongeza $2.2B kwa mwaka, hiyo $5B ilianzia wapi na kuishia mwaka gani?
Sasa mbona wewe unataka mimi nikufanyie hesabu wakati wewe una super computer hutaki kuonyesha hiyo $70B+ imefikaje?, anyway kwenye ukweli uongo hujitenga, ninakuletea hizo hesabu hapa chiniSasa hii ndo unaita kupiga hesabu ... Onyesha hesabu imetoka wapi, usiniambie sijui ukijumlisha hesabu after rebase Tanzania inakua $55B...
Unajichanganya mwenyewe ukifanya summery mathematics, nimekwambia ufungue hesabu ... Unataka uonyeshwe hesabu inafika vipi $70B mwaka 2016, basi si angalau uonyeshe GDP ilikua ngapi in 2012,13,14,15 alafu ndo utaangalia mwenyewe hio $70B ilifikaje
Rebasing iko wapi mbona haujaingiza , Tena nani amekwambia utumie wastani wa 5.5% kwa kenya na 7% kwa Tanzania, Tumia wastani kamili ambao utapata ukitafuta avg ya growth rate kutoka 2011-2016 Ambayo ni Kenya 5.6% na Tanzania 6.8%Sasa mbona wewe unataka mimi nikufanyie hesabu wakati wewe una super computer hutaki kuonyesha hiyo $70B+ imefikaje?, anyway kwenye ukweli uongo hujitenga, ninakuletea hizo hesabu hapa chini
Tanzania
2010 $31B
2011 $33.17B
2012 $35.50
2013 $37.98
2014 $40.63
2015 $43.47
2016 $46.51
KENYA
2010 $40B
2011 $42.2
2012 $44.52
2013 $47.00
2014 $49.58
2015 $52.30
2016 $55.17
Ninakuomba wewe uniletee zakwako zinazoonyesha $70B ilifikajefikaje mwaka 2016
Mimi nimeshakupa hesabu kutokana na mwelekeo wangu, ninakuomba wewe ufanye kutokana na mwelekeo wako kisha weka hesabu zako tulinganishe, wewe tumia hiyo wastani unazotaka za 5.6% na 6.8%.Rebasing iko wapi mbona haujaingiza , Tena nani amekwambia utumie wastani wa 5.5% kwa kenya na 7% kwa Tanzania, Tumia wastani kamili ambao utapata ukitafuta avg ya growth rate kutoka 2011-2016 Ambayo ni Kenya 5.6% na Tanzania 6.8%
Kiingereza mingi tu kwa hawa mashemeji zetu, lakini kwengine huko hamnakitu zaidi ya sifa zilizopitiliza, hawataki kuishi kulingana na kipato chao halisi, kwa mkenya akiambiwa awe anasifiwa tu kazini, yaani jina lake liwe linatangazwa kwenye redio na magazeti kwamba ni tajiri, na asilipwe hata shilingi moja, au awe analipwa mamilioni ya pesa kwa sharti kwamba itatangazwa redioni kwamba yeye ni masikini hohe hahe, walio wengi watachagua sifa badala ya pesa.joto la jiwe
Nimejaribu ku compute kwa excel, nimeona mwaka 2021 ndiyo GDP ya Kenya itakuwa about
72.0836961 bila kufanya rebasing. Maana sijajua hiyo ilifanyika lini.
Mwaka huu 2016 ni kama ulivyosema 55.15371227.
No, Nataka ukipata jibu hata we mwenyewe ujielewe..... Mimi nilikua nataka kuona hiyo GDP ya kila mwaka baada ya kufanya rebasing, bado wewe unaniambia after rebasing ni $63B lakini haujaionyesha.... Lengo langu kubwaMimi nimeshakupa hesabu kutokana na mwelekeo wangu, ninakuomba wewe ufanye kutokana na mwelekeo wako kisha weka hesabu zako tulinganishe, wewe tumia hiyo wastani unazotaka za 5.6% na 6.8%.
Ninajua lengo lako ni kutafuta njia ya kutoroka huu mjadala, sitokupa nafasi hiyo, acha 5.6%, Mimi nimeamua kufanya uchumi wa Kenya umekua kwa 6%, here it reads;
Kenya (6%)
2010 $40B
2011 $42.5B
2012 $45.05B
2013 $47.75B
2014 $50.60B
2015 $53.63B
2016 $56.84B
If you include rebased dat
2016 $63B
Acha kuuliza maswali mengi, wewe lete data zako zenye mtiriiko kama huu zinazotufikisha $70B (2016).
Not so fast as long as tax payers money suffers to pay back the loan u can't call that FDI for God sake it is Foreign "Direct" Investment less than that is blah blah trying to force a loan be an FDI!Dangote investing in a cement factory that is pure FDI. I know for a fact when bonds begin to be utilzed the Kenyan currency stabilised... But what I have an issue here is commercial loans.... You have gone around the issue and reintroduced the same thing... The issue is very simple, I have shown you Kenya's FDI since 2010 is only $3B, I have also shown you that since 2013 we have taken loans amounting to a debt of $18Billion, Now according to what you are saying, Do you want to tell me that of this $18 billion, no project has been completed yet gor the $18B to be reflected in FDI? Cause between isuzu,Peugeot,VW, new international hotels in Nairobi , real estate projects ...you can literaly count that Kenya's FDI and subdivide the investment from news sources and they will add up to Kenya's FDI..
On the other hand their are a few big projects funded by Afdb,WB,EU,China, Japan that were completed and are currently in use that if you add the money invested, since 2010 it will definitely be more than the mere $3B.. E.g 2 geothermal plants have been built on loan from japan, one was $400Million, another one was $600M, there is the $400 Million Moyale-isiolo road completed, there is Nairobi easter,westers,southern bypass all completed for more than 100 million, Mombasa-Nairobi pipeline completed at $350M, Mombasa port upgrades and construction of additional berths from reclaimed land has already spent $1 Billion a big chunk of that money came from JICA,TMEA,AfDB, Kenya airways buying of 9 drealiners in a deal worth $1.5B of which $600m was a commercial loan from US Exim bank,Kenya power $700m loan for upgrading , expanding and stabilising the power grid of which $470m was borrowed in $ and 35Billion in ksh don't forget mega road projects like upgrading Nakuru malaba highway all done with help... Those are projects that come to mind offhead , they are all completed projects but they have never been reflected on FDI if you look at Kenya's FDI, exept for 2015 all the figures b4 that are less than 500 million , surely you can see than none of the completed projects built on loan are ever reflected in FDI and if they were to reflect them, kenya would be leading in FDI
Thats what I have been trying to say, That loans are not part of FDI data, thats the best explanation, CC;Mwanzi1Not so fast as long as tax payers money suffers to pay back the loan u can't call that FDI for God sake it is Foreign "Direct" Investment less than that is blah blah trying to force a loan be an FDI!
Wewe domo kubwa huna lolote zaidi ya kukimbia ukweli, ninajua ukweli unaujua na unaukimbia, mimi nimekuletea data zangu ninazoziamini, inawezekana nimekosea hesabu, au nimepatia lakini unapinga ukweli, wewe lete data zako ambazo utaingiza hiyo rebased information hapa jamvini watu wazioni, tunachotaka ni kuona hiyo $70B+ imefikiwaje mathematically, ukishindwa kuweka hesabu kama nilivyoweka mimi, basi itakuwa confirmed kwamba GDP yenu sio sahihi mliwadanganya IMF ambao nao wameshituka wanaanza kuwatilia mashaka juu ya uhalisia ya uchumi wa Kenya.No, Nataka ukipata jibu hata we mwenyewe ujielewe..... Mimi nilikua nataka kuona hiyo GDP ya kila mwaka baada ya kufanya rebasing, bado wewe unaniambia after rebasing ni $63B lakini haujaionyesha.... Lengo langu kubwa
Nilikua nakuuliza hivyo kwasababu nilikua nataka nione hiyo 25% increase after rebasing uliingiza mwaka gani na kulingana na hesabu gani... Manake (Sikiliza vizuri) Rebasing ilifanywa 2014 ambapo walitumia GDP data ya 2013... Wachana hata na hio 6$, ukitumia avg ya ukweli ya 5.6% kuanzia hapo 2010 ,2011,2013
Ukitumia 5.6%
2010 - $40B
2011 - $42.24B
2012 - $44.6B
2013 - $47.1B Hapa ndo kulifanywa rebasin, ngoja nipige pozi hapo...
Sasa wewe mwenyewe kulingana na hesabu zako 2013 ilikua GDP ni $47.5B, lakini ikija kwa kufanya rebasing , unarudi na kuruka hesabu yako mwenyewe unaanza kutumua data zinazopatikana kwa site kama hii ambayo inasema kabla rebasing Uchumi wa Kenya ulikua $42.6B na baada ya 25% increase (1.25*42.6) ukapanda hadi $53.4B
Alafu kuanzia hapo 2013 unaanza tena sasa kufanya hesabu yako ya kuongeza 6% ukitumia 53.4B kama GDP ya 2013
Hii ni hesabu ya hio 53.4B ukitumua 5.6% (x * 1.056)
2013 - $53.4B
2014 - $56.4B
2015 - $59.55B
2016 - $63B
Kufika hapo nimekuonyesha vile umefika kwa hesabu yako, nothing else....
Sasa kama ningekua jaji Maraga wa mahakama kuu, ningetupilia mbali hio karatasi au ningekua mwalimu wako wa hisababti au economics, ningekunyima marks manake umeintroduce new element ndani ya hesabu ambayo ulii anzisha mwenyewe....
Wewe mwenyewe ulijiamini na kujifanyia hesabu ya question 1(a) from scratch ukitumia variable mbili pekee ($40B na growth rate of 6% or in my case 5.6%) ulipifika 2013 ukawa na $47.5B lakini kwa ilipokuja qoustion 1(b) ukaaccha kuamini hesabu yako, ukairuka na kudakia hesabu ya jirani yako na ukatumia $42.6B kufanya rebasing....
From $47.75B to $42.6B , thats a $5Billion dollar difference!!!!!!!!
Kufika hapo nadhani unanifwatilizia??????
Je ni vipi?, nini kimefanyika hapo??Inakuaje Takwimu za Official data zote zinaonyesha kwamba kenya ilikua na $42.6B in 2013 kabla kufanya rebasing lakini we mwenyewe ukipiga hesabu hadi 2013 inakuaja $47.5B ambayo ni $5B more..... hizi $5Billion zilipotea wapi kutoka kwa official data????? inakuaje wanatumia $42.6B for 2013
Kufikia hapo sasa, unafaa urudi kwa comment ya kwanza niliweka ya kuonyesha GDP kutoka kwa WB
View attachment 595310
Unaona hapo juu imeandikwa GDP(Current US$) --- Hio inamaanisha hii ni GDP nominal, yaani, kila mwaka wanatumia current currency value, using current currency value of the dollar and local currency.
This year you could export $500Million worth of goods, next year you could export same products or even more but get less than $5ooMillion kwasababu kati ya shilingi na dollar kuna moja yaezakua depreciate au kupanda....... Ndio maana hapo unaona Kenya imepoteza $5B tu hivi hivi ukipiga hesabu ya juu juu kutumia formular ya kawaida hauwezi ukaelezea hizo $5Billion zilipotelea wapi....
Kabla sijaendelea, wacha nimalize ile hesabu ya kwanza yako ya kutumia 6%ila kuintroduce $53B
Ulipofika 2013 ulikua $47.75B
Sasa fanya rebasing kulingana na hesabu simple yako mwenyewe (iliyokupatia $47.75B 2013) ==== 125/100*47.75 =$59.69B
Hapa natumia data yako mwenywe kama source ya kufanya 25% rebasing ,,,,,kwahivyo
2013 - $59.69B
2014 - $63.27B
2015 - $67.06B
2016 - $71.0B
Sasa swali unafaa ujiulize kufikia hapa, ni kwanini official statistics zilitumia $42 kufanya rebasing hadi $53B hapo 2013....... Jibu ni kama nilivyokueleza hapo juu kuhusu currenct US$,Kila mwaka wanatumia current value ya pesa... haya hapa maelezo kutoka World Bank
What is the difference between current and constant data?
← Currencies
Data reported in current (or “nominal”) prices for each year are in the value of the currency for that particular year. For example, current price data shown for 1990 are based on 1990 prices, for 2000 are based on 2000 prices, and so on. Other series in World Development Indicators (WDI) show data in "constant" or "real" terms. Constant series show the data for each year in the value of a particular base year. Thus, for example, data reported in constant 2010 prices show data for 1990, 2000, and all other years in 2010 prices.
Current series are influenced by the effect of price inflation. Constant series are used to measure the true growth of a series, i.e. adjusting for the effects of price inflation. For example (using year one as the base year), suppose nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rises from 100 billion to 110 billion, and inflation is about 4%. In real prices, the second year GDP would be approximately 106 billion, reflecting its true growth of 6%.
Except for rare instances of deflation (i.e. negative inflation), a country's current price series on a local currency basis will be higher than its constant price series in the years succeeding the constant price base year. However, this relationship does not hold when the data are converted to a common currency such as U.S. dollars. Many countries have had large devaluations of their currency since 1995 (particularly since 1998), which may cause the current dollar series to be lower than the constant dollar series.
Please note that the term "real" has a different meaning when considering data in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms. While "nominal" GDP in the International Comparison Program does refer to the regular national accounts GDP in current prices, "real" GDP is considered to be the PPP GDP in current prices. We also show PPP GDP in constant prices by simply applying the regular national accounts growth rates for GDP to derive the series for PPP GDP in constant 2011 U.S. dollars.
What is the difference between current and constant data? – World Bank Data Help Desk
The exchange rate for $-TZS in 2013 was 1 USD = 1589.2845 TZS, i the exchange rate now 2017 is 1 USD = 2244.97 .. Thats a 40% change.
The exchange rate for $-KSH in 2013 was 1 USD = 85.3593 KES. The exchage rate now 2017 is 1USD = 103.2611
18 Thats a 20% change...
When you convert an equivalent amount of money from both countries to dollar value, one would get more or less dollars than the other..
A foreign product sold in dollars would be more expensive or cheaper when you buy with loval currency from the respective country....
I hope umeelewa vipi $70B inapatikana kulingana na GDP(nominal) ambayo inatumia dynamic data..
Kama unataka GDP inayotumia constant data yani kama zile hesabu ulikua unapiga, rudi hapo hapo kwa website ya WB, mkono wa kulia unaeza cheza na hizo data unaeza tafuta GDP constant na utumie mwaka flani kama base year utapata hesabu inayofanana na hio unayotaka ya USD63B
Mbona unaruka hesabu yako tena? Si umefanya mwenyewe na ukailewewa?Wewe domo kubwa huna lolote zaidi ya kukimbia ukweli, ninajua ukweli unaujua na unaukimbia, mimi nimekuletea data zangu ninazoziamini, inawezekana nimekosea hesabu, au nimepatia lakini unapinga ukweli, wewe lete data zako ambazo utaingiza hiyo rebased information hapa jamvini watu wazioni, tunachotaka ni kuona hiyo $70B+ imefikiwaje mathematically, ukishindwa kuweka hesabu kama nilivyoweka mimi, basi itakuwa confirmed kwamba GDP yenu sio sahihi mliwadanganya IMF ambao nao wameshituka wanaanza kuwatilia mashaka juu ya uhalisia ya uchumi wa Kenya.
Acha maneno mengi, onyesha mtiririko kutoka 2010 hadi 2016, achana na data zangu, usipoteze muda na data zangu, tuwekee zakwako watu wanasubiri kuona
Thank you very much, do the same calculation for Tanzania by including rebasing data on 2014, then compute the gap between those two countries which is the base of our discussion to see if is widening or closing.Mbona unaruka hesabu yako tena? Si umefanya mwenyewe na ukailewewa?
Haya lets make it very simple basi, Kama hutaki kuelewa explanation ya world bank ya tofauti kati ya gdp constant na current .. tutumie hesabu tu, alafu na ile 25% increase in 2013 ili uelewe watu walifikaje $70B.
Using 5.6% growth which is 100%+5.6% or 105.6% or x1.056
2010 - $40B
2011 - $42.24B
2012 - $44.61B
2013 - $47.10 ---Rebasing happens economy recalculated to include new industries, expands by 25%... Or x1.25 -->>> $47.1B*1.25 = $58.88B
So once again...
2013 - $58.88B
2014 - $62.18B
2015 - $65.66B
2016 - $69.34B (that's $70B give or take)
If you do that for Kenya you will find that average is 5.9%.. Instead of 5.6%.... You cant use the growth of 2010 since our calculation starts from 2010, so take the avg growth rates from 2011-2016 decide by 6Thank you very much, do the same calculation for Tanzania by including rebasing data on 2014, then compute the gap between those two countries which is the base of our discussion to see if is widening or closing.
One thing I must alert you is that, we are not using the most recent GDP, which yo are using for Tanzania which is 6,9%, For big part of the last 10 years, Tanzania economy was above 7%, when you take average it goes back to 7%, if you want to prove this, take Tanzania growth rate per each year from 2010 and calculate eaverage, I am doing for Kenya, will tell you average in a short while.
I do agree with you, what I want you to do is just to exactly do for Tanzania what you have done for Kenya, then get the difference between two countries, our aim is to see if gap is widening or closing. I don't agree with you that Kenya average will be 5.9%, please support your argument by providing growth rate of individual year, then lets calculate average.If you do that for Kenya you will find that average is 5.9%.. Instead of 5.6%.... You cant use the growth of 2010 since our calculation starts from 2010, so take the avg growth rates from 2011-2016 decide by 6
Please Kafrica, I would like to advice you to come openly after making some adjustment for Tanzania GDP the same as you have done for Kenya, people are waiting to know if the gap is increasing as always Kenyans think or is decreasing, this is very important, because I think this mentality of not thinking critically especially about economy, I think is one among very important reasons for declining of our EconomiesMbona unaruka hesabu yako tena? Si umefanya mwenyewe na ukailewewa?
Haya lets make it very simple basi, Kama hutaki kuelewa explanation ya world bank ya tofauti kati ya gdp constant na current .. tutumie hesabu tu, alafu na ile 25% increase in 2013 ili uelewe watu walifikaje $70B.
Using 5.6% growth which is 100%+5.6% or 105.6% or x1.056
2010 - $40B
2011 - $42.24B
2012 - $44.61B
2013 - $47.10 ---Rebasing happens economy recalculated to include new industries, expands by 25%... Or x1.25 -->>> $47.1B*1.25 = $58.88B
So once again...
2013 - $58.88B
2014 - $62.18B
2015 - $65.66B
2016 - $69.34B (that's $70B give or take)