Book Review: Defeating Dictators, George Ayyitey

[Roulette]

Book Review:

George B. N. Ayittey (2011) Defeating dictators: Fighting Tyranny in Africa and around the world, Palgrave MacMillan, Division of St. Martin Press LLC. New York.

About the Author: George B. N Ayittey was named one of the Foreign Policy's Top Global Thinker in 2009 and is the advisor to the Obama administration on forging new path for Africa [please note the year of publication] He is the author of Africa Unchained, Africa in Chaos ad Africa Betrayed, which won the H. L. Mencken Award for Best Book. Ayittey has written for the Wall Steet Journal, The Washington Post, and The Times (London), among others, and has appeared on such media as ABC's Nightime, PBS NewsHour, and CNN. He is also the founder and president of the Free Africa Foundation. The originator of the term Cheetah Generation, Ayittey hails from Ghana, where former President John Kufuor described him as "one of the architecht of democratic change".


Dear all,

I have just finished reading this book (285 pg). I will not share my review now. I just want to share with you this introduction to its seventh chapter that is a vivid description of the situation back home. Please read this extract in the context of our African countries and assess objectively whether our existing opposition parties, in which the population has placed so much hope, stand any chance of defeating the ruling parties that control our governments, very often for the benefit of a small ruling "elite". I am not talking about a particular country, just African countries in general, remember the book was written by an international author.

Extract:

Chapter 7: The Strategy

"We have done a lousy job in government. When Zanu-PF [rulling party] have used the last 21 months to refocus and reinvent themselves, we have lost our identity. Zanu-PF are as brutal and corrupt as before, but much richer. They've got an almost total grip on the marange diamonds […] and still control the media and security forces. They're much better organised than we are. The polls may still show us in the lead but almost half the electorate refuse to say how they will vote. There's likely to be massive apathy among MDC supporters. If we went to the polls now, I think we could lose. We got to start fighting." ~ A senior official of the Movement for Democratic Change in Zimbabwe [Opposition Party]

Opposition weaknesses

​

This part of the book has been difficult to write because, as we noted earlier, it would be callous and even cruel to suggest that freedom fighters who have been jailed and tortured for their courageous struggle for freedom should have done things differently and, thus, by inference, deserved the punishment or the fate they suffered. However, this is not the intention. As we saw in the previous chapter, not all revolutions are succeeded. Failed revolutions not only cost lives and resources but also set back the march to freedom. For every force in nature there is a counterforce.

A force dominates because a counterforce is either non-existent or weak. Democracy has suffered a steady decline for the fifth year in a row because the counterforce or the resistant-both domestic and international-has been weak or crumbling. With such weak resistance, tyrants triumph, dominate, and become smug. In too many places, the opposition iis hopelessly fragmented, disorganised, and prone to squabbling. The religion, ideology, tribalism, secessions and other sectarian issues. […]. African and Middle Eastern autocrats are masters at outsmarting their quarrelsome opponents and squashing protests.

For those of us in the struggle, for corrective steps to be taken critical self-appraisal and review of strategies are necessary. There have been too many cases where the opposition has blunted and squandered golden opportunities, allowing tyranny to become more entrenched. Here are a few examples […]

Too often, those who set out to liberate their countries from tyranny end up selling out,and sowing confusion and carnage. Some opposition leaders are themselves closet dictators, exhibiting the same tyrannical tendencies they so loudly denounce in the despots they hope to replace.

Too often in the past, many such "liberators" transformed themselves-in less than a year- into another bunch of vile despots or "crocodile liberators" far worse than the dictators they replaced. The opposition movement itself needs to be reformed. In too many countries, the leadership of the established political opposition is wooden, senile, and out of touch with domestic realities. Some have preached the same messages for decades without getting any traction. Others have spent decades in exile. Very few can be said to be techno-savvy. Many are not even capable of surfing the internet and sending text messages and e-mail to the youth.

When the established opposition becomes moribund, a third force emerges that shoves it aside. This third force may take the form of a rebel insurgency, in which rebel leaders take "to the bush" after losing faith in the ability of the opposition to effect political change. Or it may take the form of a youth movement to sweep the opposition away, as occurred in Tunisia, Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world in January 2011. […]

You are all invited to share your views on both the book (kwa walio kisoma) and/or this extract.
CC: AshaDii, Invisible, Gaijin, Zitto, Dr. Kiranga, The Boss, Bigirita, EMT, TIMING, Mkandara, seleman, zomba, jmushi1, Mzee Mwanakijiji Ab-Titchaz, ZeMarcopolo, Pasco, Magembe R. Malima
Mods, naomba tuiache hii huku kwa muda, later tutahamisha jukwaa la Elimu maana imekaa half siasa half elimu.

 

[ZeMarcopolo]

Kuna aspects mbili ambazo ni tofauti na Tanzania ambazo ni

1) Opposition leaders kushindwa kutumia internet na kutuma text messages. Kwa Tanzania opposition ndio uko active zaidi kwenye internet kuliko chama tawala.Ingawa kumekuwa na kauli kuhusu watu kulipwa kwa kupost kwenye internet lakini the truth ni kwamba CCM haina kitengo maalum cha IT na hakuna campeign agenda ya kutumia internet. Wakati wa uchaguzi mkuu wa 2010 walitokea "activists" walioemploy ICT kwenye kampeni za CCM, lakini baada ya uchaguzi "activists" hao waliondoka na "instruments" zao.

2) Upinzani kuharibiwa na vikundi vya waasi. Hili Tanzania halijajitokeza na mpaka sasa hakujaonekana dalili ya kujitokeza. Kikundi cha UAMSHO Zanzibar kwa mbali sana kingeweza kuwa mfano lakini hakuna tools tunazoweza kuzitumia kujua kama UAMSHO imeleta impact kwenye hali ya kisiasa Zanzibar so far.

Mengine yaliyosemwa kwa kiasi kikubwa ni ukweli na yanafanana na hali ilivyo Tanzania. Tatizo kubwa la wanasiasa wetu ni kwamba wanapigania njaa, hawapiganii ideals. Ndio maana unaweza kuona mwanasiasa ambaye anasema nchi iko mikononi mwa "mkoloni mweusi" lakini anakataa kugombea Urais mpaka ahakikishiwe malipo manono. hii ni ishara tosha kuwa huyu mtu haamini kuwa nchi iko kwa "mkoloni mweusi" ia yuko tu kwenye shughuli za kisiasa kama shughuli nyingine za kujipatia kipato.

Tunahitaji kuwa na wanasiasa ambao wanasimamia mambo na hawatetereki kwa sabau deeply wanaamini kile wanachokisema. ofcourse kutakuwa na mambo ambayo wanaflip now and then lakini katika masuala ya msingi kama sera ya uchumi (ukusanyaji kodi, njia za kuzalisha ajira), huduma za afya, ulinzi na usalama wawe wana fundamental principles ambazo zinawaongoza. Hawa wanasiasa ambao wakikosa nafasi ya kugombea chama hiki wanahamia chama kingine kwa kweli sio wa kuwaamini. Yaani leo alikuwa kwenye chama kinachoamini kuwa huduma za afya zinapaswa kutolewa bure kwa watu wote, kesho anahamia kwenye chama ambacho kinaamini kwamba kila mtu anapaswa kulipia huduma za afya kama jinsi anavyolipia huduma nyingine (chakula, malazi, mavazi etc). Wanasiasa wa namna hii kwanza ni rahisi kukata tamaa lakini pili wanarubunika kirahisi kwa kuahidiwa madaraka au luxuries kwa kugive up theirs bids. Lakini mbaya zaidi, wanasiasa wa namna hii hata wakifanikiwa kushika dola, hawana ari ya dhati ya kupigania yale waliyokuwa wanayaongea.

Siasa zetu ni siasa za characters na sio ideology. Ni siasa za "yule anaiba, mkinichagua mimi sitaiba". tunahitaji siasa za ideology. kije chama kiseme kuwa kutoa huduma za afya bure kutafanya huduma iendelee kuwa duni kwa sababu serikali haina uwezo wa kutoa huduma bure na duniani hakuna serikali iliyoweza kufanya hivyo. Kije chama kiseme hakitaruhusu nchi yoyote duniani kumuua mtanzania na nchi yoyote itakayofanya hivyo itakuwa adui wa watanzania wote (Sasa hivi watanzani wananyongwa China na hakuna anayejali). Kije chama kiseme kujiunga kwenye jumuiya kama sadc, eac, au ni kupoteza rasilimali na kusema serikali itajitoa kwenye jumuiya hizo zote au baadhi. Kije chama kiseme kiswahili lazima kitumike kufundishia mashuleni. Yaani tunahitaji options za ideaologies, sio kusema "yule fisadi, mkinipa mimi sitakuwa fisadi" jambo ambalo linasemwa na mtu ambaye maisha yake ya kila siku ni tofauti na kauli anayotoa.

Wale wanaojiua kwa mabomu ya kujitoa muhanga wanafanya hivyo kwa sabau ya ideology. Wanaamini kuwa wakifa wataenda peponi. Wanaamini kwa dhati kabisa kuwa its worth it kujiua kwa kujitoa muhanga kuliko kuishi katika mazingira yasiyokubalika. Kujiua kwa kujitoa muhanga si jambo zuri,lakini inatufunza kuwa tukiwa na wanasiasa wanaoamini ideology za vyama vyao tutaweza kupata upinzani firm, ulio tayari kukosa luxuries zote ili kufikia lengo la kukitoa chama kinachotetea ideology tofauti. sasa hivi vyama vyetu vyote vimecopy na kupaste ideology za TANU na ASP, ndip maana CCM inavumiliwa kuendelea kuwa madarakani...

 

[Roulette]

ZeMarcopolo nadhani kuna umuhimu wa leader mwenyewe kua techno-savvy. Kama anatuma watu waingie mtandaoni kujaza propaganda sio sawa na yeye mwenyewe kuingia na kujibu mijadala. Pia hiyo internet inatumika kwa lipi kama wanashindwa kuja na proper statistics ambazo hata my 8 years old daughter girl anaweza kupata? yani sometimes unajadili na leader of opposition (sio hapa TZ) hoja zake nyepesi sana hadi you feel embarassed for him.
the only thing they can do is to make the headlines. Yani kwao kuonekana magazetini (hata kwa ubaya) ni goal in itself.

Mara nyingi unakuta kuna argument kua "huo udini/ukabila mnauona kwetu tu? mbona rulling party wanafanya?" well, the answe is simple. if you do what the rulling party is doing then you are not an alternative, let the status quo continue. Kama mnataka kuchaguliwa lazima mje na irreproachable image. The book is good and provides good strategies on defeating regimes zinazo n'gang'ania madaraka. But kwa siasa/oppositions zetu huku nahisi itakua ngumu sana ku-apply.

However nimejaribu kusoma ile thread yako about CUF. Nimesoma pia thread ya Companero on NCCR. There are other opposition parties in Tanzania that are not (yet?) or have already gone through the intestine divisions. Could they be an alternative? Pia kumbuka chama kushinda uchaguzi sio tu kushinda uraisi (but this is ideal), inaweza kua kushinda jimbo or kulikamata bunge sawasawa.

 

[EMT]

Tatizo ambalo naliona kwenye vyama vya upinzani ni kwamba kwa muda mrefu wamekuwa wakifanya mambo yale yale huku wakitegemea matokeo tofauti.

Kama ilivyo kwa vyama tawala, integrity ya vyama vya upinzani, kwa maana ya umoja, demokrasia, uvumilivu utawala bora ndani ya hivyo vyama, nk inaleta mashaka.

Mantra ya vyama vya upinzani ni kuwa na demokrasia kwenye nchi zao. They preach it really well kwenye majukwaa. Lakini vyama hivi hivi-practice hiyo demokrasia internally.

Hii inaleta wasiwasi mkubwa kama hivi vyama vitafanikiwa kuingia madarakani na hata kama vikifanikiwa, whether things will be different.

Votes only count if the candidate can stand up and be counted. A candidate can only stand if the voters can count on him/her.

Otherwise, most African opposition parties will continue to wonder in the political wilderness, eternally.

 

[ZeMarcopolo]

"Mapinduzi si lelemama. Mapinduzi yanahitaji wakereketwa wa kijamii ambao msimamo wao kwa upande wa wavija jasho hautetereki" - Mwongozo wa CCM 1981.

Sasa hivi tuna wanasiasa wanaojinadi kuwa wanataka kuleta mabadiliko lakini at the same wanasema hawatashiriki kugombea uongozi mpaka wahakikishiwe maslahi yao kwanza. Wanasiasa wa namna hii wakikutana na vizingiti vinavyohatarisha maslahi yao hutokomea.

Vijana hawashiriki shughuli za chama mpaka waahidiwe posho. Kwahiyo process yenyewe ya kuingia madarakani inakuwa very expensive apart from ugumu wa kushindani na chama kilicho madarakani kisiasa. Lakini kama alivyosema EMT hapo juu, vijana hawako tayari kujitolea kwa sababu hawana matumaini kwamba kuingia kwa chama kingine madarakani kutaleta mabadiliko katika maisha yao ya kila siku.

 

[Sungurampole]

Roulette asante mkuu, umenichagiza nikitafute kitabu hiki nikisome. nimemfahamu Ayyiteh(nafikiri ni prof) kutokana na kuona clip yake kuhusu cheetah and hippo generations -aliitoa wakati wa mkutano wa TED- Ngurudoto mwaka 2007. nashauri ambao hawajaiona hii clip waitafute

 

[Kiranga]

Thanks Roulette

I simply have to look this book up. I met Prof. Ayittey through a talk he gave, hosted by some libertarian friends of mine he was vastly admired by.

He never disappointed. I did not know he won the Mencken though, that endears him even more. Mencken is a caustic figure I draw a lot from.

I will read this.

While on the subject of Africa, just sharing what I am currently reading.

Foreign Affairs - Africa's Economic Boom: Why the Pessimists and the Optimists Are Both Right .

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcfrbs/docs/FA_MayJune2013-Devarajan-Fengler-Africa.pdf

 

[Ndahani]

Most of the politicals opposition parties have failed to come up with brilliant ideas to overcome the challenges paused by the ruling parties which control security apparatus and other resources. They use means that will take them ages to make it peaceful to the power. And on the other hand, they don't come up with systems that they will live with standards they claim to be preaching

 

[Roulette]

Thanks Roulette

I simply have to look this book up. I met Prof. Ayittey through a talk he gave, hosted by some libertarian friends of mine he was vastly admired by.

He never disappointed. I did not know he won the Mencken though, that endears him even more. Mencken is a caustic figure I draw a lot from.

I will read this.

While on the subject of Africa, just sharing what I am currently reading.

Foreign Affairs - Africa's Economic Boom: Why the Pessimists and the Optimists Are Both Right .

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcfrbs/docs/FA_MayJune2013-Devarajan-Fengler-Africa.pdf

Vipi Kiranga, ulifanikiwa kukipitia hicho kitabu? It is even more pertinent now maana kila kukicha tunaona mapya. Musa na Firauni wote amateurs hapa Bongo!

 

[Kichuguu]

Hapana, jamaa huyu alichoshindwa kuona, na ambacho kimekosewa na nchi nyingi sana za kiafrika ikiwa ni pamoja na Tanzania (isipokuwa chache sana kama Zambia, Malawi na Kenya tena kwa sababu tofauti kabisa) ni kuwa:

(1) Ukombozi unaotakiwa leo siyo kama ule wa miaka ya hamsini na sitini ambapo adui alikuwa ni mtu wa nje-Mzungu. Ukombozi unaotakiwa leo ni ule wa kumwondoa mwafrika mwenzetu ambaye ni dikteta. Extended familyohood za kiafrika huchangia sana kufanya dikteta huyo asiwe adui wa watu wengi. Kuondoa dikteta wa namna huyo hakuwezi kufanyika kwa njia ya kumwaga damu akama ambavyo ilivyokuwa rahisi kufanya kwa kuondoa wazungu.


(2) Wapinzani hufanya hivyo kwa kupitia utaratibu uliowekwa na dikteta wanayetaka kumwondoa. Yaani kuomba kura kutoka kwa wananchi waliojanzwa ujinga na dikiteta wanayetaka kumwondoa bila kubadilisha uelewa wao wa mambo. Ndiyo maana mara kadhaa madikteta wamekuwa wanatumia muda wao kufanya uchaguzi uwe referendum dhidi ya wapinzani kuliko kuwa referendum ya chama kilichoko madarakani, na wakafanikiwa kirahisi. Ukombozi halisi unatakiwa kuanza kwenye ubongo wa raia, jambo ambalo wapinzani wengi wanashindwa kufanya. Kwa mfano sasa hivi ajenda kuu za uchaguzi Tanzania 2015 ni kuhusu CHADEMA na UKANDA na UDINI, na wanachi wajinga wanakubaliana kabisa na ajenda hizo badala ya ajenda kuwa TUTAKAKO na TUENDAKO kama taifa.


Cha kufanya: Elimisha watu, elimisha watu na elimisha watu tena; usiombe wakuchague bali waelimishea vya kutosha uwaache wajichagulie wenyewe. Tanzania tunasumbuliwa sana na ujinga wa watu wetu kwa vile watu wao hawajaelimishwa na wengi wanazidi kudumbukizwa kwenye rindi la ujinga kila siku.