NairobiWalker
JF-Expert Member
- Oct 31, 2012
- 14,267
- 14,890
That port already looks "white" pretty sure its also an elephant
Wanamatatizo ya kutokusoma small print za mikataba. SGR ilitakiwa iwe na knowledge transfer, sasa hivi na ripoti iliyotoka hilo swala ni ndoto. Na jinsi wachina wanavyotaja kutawala dunia, Kenya wajitaarishe kwa vita kubwa ya kumg'oa mchina lasivyo ukoloni mambo leo unarudi Kenya.Ukiangalia vizuri mambo mengi Kenya inafanya kwa kukurupuka mbio kwenda Uchina, kama baada ya kuskia Bagamoyo port Jamaa wakakurupuka kama SGR wasijue tinawaingiza mkenge!
Wenyewe wanadai waliwahi mkopo was Xi Jinping! Kisirisiri wakasaini mikataba wakaja kuzindua miradi Kwa mbwembwe.
Wasijue tuliwatega, tuka-cancel mkopo wa Mchina wa SGR yetu na pia financing ya Bagamoyo port! SGR tukaamua kujenga wenyewe wakati Bagamoyo port tukamuita Muomani na majadiliano yakaanza upya huku tukipanua bandari zetu tatu.
Hii analysis imeenda shule.Nakumbuka kuna ule wakati tukakosa ile dili ya bomba la mafuta na Uganda, mlianza kuimba wimbo huu huu mkifikiria lapsset imekufa (wakati uganda hata haiko kwa blueprint ya lapsset) ..
lapset si Lamu port tu, infact Lamu port ilikua ni ijengwe enzi za rais Moi ili kupunguza kazi ya Mombasa, Hata SGR pia ilikua ijengwe enzi hizo (hadi kisumu) lakini ufisadi na uongozi mbaya ikafanya hizi project proposal kutupwa kabatini... Kibaki alivyoingia mamlakani akaitisha funguo za kabati, baada ya kufungua na kuona hizo project proposals zote akaitisha kamati ya ma technocrats (akina Bitange ndemo) akawaambia wakague project zote alafu wazipackage kama document moja ambayo inawezwa fatwa kama blueprint.... Hapo ndo kukazaliwa Vision 2030, ambapo ndani kulikuwa na Konza city, Msa SGR, Lapsset. ..etc.... Project ya lapsset ilipangwa vile ili kuamsha North na north east of Kenya kwasababu wameachwa nyuma kabisa ilhali wako na potential... kwahivyo hio lapsset si ya Ethiopia wala South Sudan, mteja wa kwanza ni Wakenya, (thats why we will never agree to build a pipeline to anywhere but Lamu) Ethiopia as S.Sudan only make the project more vialble, lakini hata bila hao, we still need Lamu port....
ili kukuonyesha kwamba Lapsset lamu port is necessary wacha nikupe Takwimu
Hii ni historical data ya mizigo (import/export) inayopita bandarini Kenya...
Data is in (000, 000)
2010 - 18.934 million tonnes
2011 - 19.953 m
2012 - 21.92 m
2013 - 22.307 m
2014 - 24.875 m
2015 - 26.737m
2016 - 27.365 m tonnes
the average rate of increase for that period is 6.2%
the actual tonnage for 2017 is 30.2 million tonnes but if you use the 6.2% increase estimation x 2016 volume the results is 29.061 tonnes
So using the avg increase of 6.2% year on year, we can project the expectated volume for the near future....
2018 - 30.82 million tonnes
2019 - 32.8m
2020 - 34.81 m
(2020 is when the first berth of lamu port(out of 32) will be completed )
2021 - 36.97m
2022 - 39.26m
2023 - 41.7m
2024 - 44.28 m
2025 - 47.02 m
2026 - 49.94 m
2027 - 53.03m
2028 - 56.32m
2029 - 59.81 m
2030 - 63.53 m
2031 - 67.46 million tonnes of cargo...
2032 - 71.64 m
Lamu port inatarajiwa kukamilika 2030 ikiwa na 32 berths, Mombasa kwa sasa ina capacity ya exactly 30 million tonnes p.a au 1.5million TEUs na iko na 22 berths, the latest berth kuongezwa pale Mombasa ilikua ni juu ya reclaimed land from the sea kwasababu hakuna tena nafasi ya kufanya expansion. ... bado kufya phase 3 ya Mombasa port haijafanywa lakini ikishafanywa the most capacity Mombasa inawezwa fanya ni 2 million TEUs ama 40 million tonnes... hapo itakua imefika mwisho wa expansion kabisaa!
Tena kuna Dongo kundu FEZ/EPZ free trade area ambayo itaku kama ile ya Dubai free port ita strech capacity ya mombasa to the limit..
Hapo ndo Lamu itakuja kuiokoa Mombasa manake kulingana na projection by 2032 tutakua tumeongeza mizigo inayopitia bandarini hadi 71 million tonnes. .. Mombasa itachukua 40m na Lamu 30m au vice versa au wagawanyane sawa sawa ...
Kwavivyo ukiangalia hata bila Ethiopia, Lamu port itakua na atleast 30 million tonnes by 2030 itakapo kamilika.....
Sasa kama Kenya itakua inahitaji capacity ya 71m tonnes by 2030, unafikiri Ethiopia ambayo inakua kwa kasi zaidi ya Kenya itahitaji capacity gani?
Port ya Sudan is the slowest port in- africa mzigo unachukua 22 days, port ya Djibouti haitoshelezi Ethiopia n hawajatangaza mipango ya expansion , Eritrea wamesalimiana na Ethiopia leo lakini port yao ndo ni ndogo zaidi ya leo, hata Somaliland wako na kubwa kuwashinda, - Somaliland nao yao haina mazoea lakini wanamipango ya kuipanua na kupeana umiliki kwa kampuni ya kibinafsi, lakini hio dili itagarimu takriban 400m USD ambayo ni probaly 3 berths kama vile the firat 3 berths za Lamu zinagarimu $400m ... so bandari yao haitakua na capacity ya kutosheleza mahitaji ya 2025.... besides, lamu tayari iko mbele yao, barabara ya kuunganisha Lamu hadi Nairobi na hadi Ethiopia inakamilika mwaka ujao.. in short, hizo nchi nyengine zikifika tutakua tulishafika kitambo!
Your trying to make best out of bad job. Kenya came up with all these projects with neighbours in mind to ease up on cost. But if the neighbors where to turn away, Kenya will take much-much longer to get return of investment presuming there was plan B.Nakumbuka kuna ule wakati tukakosa ile dili ya bomba la mafuta na Uganda, mlianza kuimba wimbo huu huu mkifikiria lapsset imekufa (wakati uganda hata haiko kwa blueprint ya lapsset) ..
lapset si Lamu port tu, infact Lamu port ilikua ni ijengwe enzi za rais Moi ili kupunguza kazi ya Mombasa, Hata SGR pia ilikua ijengwe enzi hizo (hadi kisumu) lakini ufisadi na uongozi mbaya ikafanya hizi project proposal kutupwa kabatini... Kibaki alivyoingia mamlakani akaitisha funguo za kabati, baada ya kufungua na kuona hizo project proposals zote akaitisha kamati ya ma technocrats (akina Bitange ndemo) akawaambia wakague project zote alafu wazipackage kama document moja ambayo inawezwa fatwa kama blueprint.... Hapo ndo kukazaliwa Vision 2030, ambapo ndani kulikuwa na Konza city, Msa SGR, Lapsset. ..etc.... Project ya lapsset ilipangwa vile ili kuamsha North na north east of Kenya kwasababu wameachwa nyuma kabisa ilhali wako na potential... kwahivyo hio lapsset si ya Ethiopia wala South Sudan, mteja wa kwanza ni Wakenya, (thats why we will never agree to build a pipeline to anywhere but Lamu) Ethiopia as S.Sudan only make the project more vialble, lakini hata bila hao, we still need Lamu port....
ili kukuonyesha kwamba Lapsset lamu port is necessary wacha nikupe Takwimu
Hii ni historical data ya mizigo (import/export) inayopita bandarini Kenya...
Data is in (000, 000)
2010 - 18.934 million tonnes
2011 - 19.953 m
2012 - 21.92 m
2013 - 22.307 m
2014 - 24.875 m
2015 - 26.737m
2016 - 27.365 m tonnes
the average rate of increase for that period is 6.2%
the actual tonnage for 2017 is 30.2 million tonnes but if you use the 6.2% increase estimation x 2016 volume the results is 29.061 tonnes
So using the avg increase of 6.2% year on year, we can project the expectated volume for the near future....
2018 - 30.82 million tonnes
2019 - 32.8m
2020 - 34.81 m
(2020 is when the first berth of lamu port(out of 32) will be completed )
2021 - 36.97m
2022 - 39.26m
2023 - 41.7m
2024 - 44.28 m
2025 - 47.02 m
2026 - 49.94 m
2027 - 53.03m
2028 - 56.32m
2029 - 59.81 m
2030 - 63.53 m
2031 - 67.46 million tonnes of cargo...
2032 - 71.64 m
Lamu port inatarajiwa kukamilika 2030 ikiwa na 32 berths, Mombasa kwa sasa ina capacity ya exactly 30 million tonnes p.a au 1.5million TEUs na iko na 22 berths, the latest berth kuongezwa pale Mombasa ilikua ni juu ya reclaimed land from the sea kwasababu hakuna tena nafasi ya kufanya expansion. ... bado kufya phase 3 ya Mombasa port haijafanywa lakini ikishafanywa the most capacity Mombasa inawezwa fanya ni 2 million TEUs ama 40 million tonnes... hapo itakua imefika mwisho wa expansion kabisaa!
Tena kuna Dongo kundu FEZ/EPZ free trade area ambayo itaku kama ile ya Dubai free port ita strech capacity ya mombasa to the limit..
Hapo ndo Lamu itakuja kuiokoa Mombasa manake kulingana na projection by 2032 tutakua tumeongeza mizigo inayopitia bandarini hadi 71 million tonnes. .. Mombasa itachukua 40m na Lamu 30m au vice versa au wagawanyane sawa sawa ...
Kwavivyo ukiangalia hata bila Ethiopia, Lamu port itakua na atleast 30 million tonnes by 2030 itakapo kamilika.....
Sasa kama Kenya itakua inahitaji capacity ya 71m tonnes by 2030, unafikiri Ethiopia ambayo inakua kwa kasi zaidi ya Kenya itahitaji capacity gani?
Port ya Sudan is the slowest port in- africa mzigo unachukua 22 days, port ya Djibouti haitoshelezi Ethiopia n hawajatangaza mipango ya expansion , Eritrea wamesalimiana na Ethiopia leo lakini port yao ndo ni ndogo zaidi ya leo, hata Somaliland wako na kubwa kuwashinda, - Somaliland nao yao haina mazoea lakini wanamipango ya kuipanua na kupeana umiliki kwa kampuni ya kibinafsi, lakini hio dili itagarimu takriban 400m USD ambayo ni probaly 3 berths kama vile the firat 3 berths za Lamu zinagarimu $400m ... so bandari yao haitakua na capacity ya kutosheleza mahitaji ya 2025.... besides, lamu tayari iko mbele yao, barabara ya kuunganisha Lamu hadi Nairobi na hadi Ethiopia inakamilika mwaka ujao.. in short, hizo nchi nyengine zikifika tutakua tulishafika kitambo!
Have you factored in population increase in your analysis? You know nothing about economicsYour trying to make best out of bad job. Kenya came up with all these projects with neighbours in mind to ease up on cost. But if the neighbors where to turn away, Kenya will take much-much longer to get return of investment presuming there was plan B.
Hata hivyo, apart from Lokichar oil there is there is nothing to justify Lamu port, imagine taking cargo container from Lamu to Kisumu and vice versa.
Hizo port za Tanzania zikijengwa na mkoloni kila moja ikiwa na specific purpose. Leo hii huoni tunakimbilia kujenga port just because others have one. Kumbuka miradi mingi Kenya ilifanyiwa uwamuzi na watu waliokuwa wanajali kubeba 10% yao.Nyinyi wenyewe mko na ports tatu. Sisi tukijenga ya pili unasema eti ni mbaya. Shida yenu iko wapi? Mbona nyinyi mna ports tatu? Tuwache na amani jameni tujenge yetu ya pili. Mombasa port imekaa hapo miaka zaidi ya arubaini. Wacha angalau hata sisi tuwe na port mpya
Population increase doesn't necessarily mean people will move to those unpopulated areas, if that's was the chase you'll find people everywhere in China and India. Modern trend of urbanisation will not allow live whenever they like if there is no infrastructure in place. Good example is Kenya, were population are more in the south than in the north.Have you factored in population increase in your analysis? You know nothing about economics
Increase in population leads to increase consumption which leads to increase in currency flow in the economy thus more trade which cannot be efficiently sustained by only Mombasa port.Population increase doesn't necessarily mean people will move to those unpopulated areas, if that's was the chase you'll find people everywhere in China and India. Modern trend of urbanisation will not allow live whenever they like if there is no infrastructure in place. Good example is Kenya, were population are more in the south than in the north.
Do a study on chinas model of economic growth and why it was successful......for example population around sgr stations was very low but due to infrastructural development things change many business have sprung up and other private invesetments structures are coming up.The population in Lamu was very low but due to the ongoing construction the population Has increased thus more business which enhance development and creation of jobs.Population increase doesn't necessarily mean people will move to those unpopulated areas, if that's was the chase you'll find people everywhere in China and India. Modern trend of urbanisation will not allow live whenever they like if there is no infrastructure in place. Good example is Kenya, were population are more in the south than in the north.
People will always follow the jobs, but lets not forget that Ethiopia and South Sudan and Ugandan oil the key factor to justify the project. You can remind yourself with the link below.Do a study on chinas model of economic growth and why it was successful......for example population around sgr stations was very low but due to infrastructural development things change many business have sprung up and other private invesetments structures are coming up.The population in Lamu was very low but due to the ongoing construction the population Has increased thus more business which enhance development and creation of jobs.
I have told you that Kenya cannot survive with one port. It is crazy to expect an $80 billion economy to have just one port. For example accident ikifanyika Mombasa port, biashara itabidi ifungwe hadi hio accident itatuliwe. Ama Kenya tukienda War na nchi nyingine halafu hiyo nchi iamue kubomb Mombasa port, then that will be the end of us. So having two ports is not only for necessity reasons but also for tactical and strategic reasons during emergencies. Mtu mwenye ako na bank accounts mbili atakuwa bila wasiwasi ikiwa moja itafungwa, kwa sababu ako na nyingine. Don't have archaic thinking mentality eti the fewer the ports the better; that is not true. Ni vizuri kuwa na magari mawili moja ikiharibika bado uko na nyingine. Wachana na hii scarcity mentality.People will always follow the jobs, but lets not forget that Ethiopia and South Sudan and Ugandan oil the key factor to justify the project. You can remind yourself with the link below.
East Africa port project launched
Kenya: Prime Minister Speaks at Ground Breaking Ceremony of Proposed Lamu PortYour trying to make best out of bad job. Kenya came up with all these projects with neighbours in mind to ease up on cost. But if the neighbors where to turn away, Kenya will take much-much longer to get return of investment presuming there was plan B.
Hata hivyo, apart from Lokichar oil there is there is nothing to justify Lamu port, imagine taking cargo container from Lamu to Kisumu and vice versa.
None of those countries have a refinery or a refined petrolium pipeline. .. look at the lapseet blueprint... So the projects involved are very much still up for grabs....Besides that, Lapsset and vision 2030 was announced in 2005, and was officially launched in 2008, At that time Kenya had not even discovered oil! And didnt South Sudan gain independence in 2011?People will always follow the jobs, but lets not forget that Ethiopia and South Sudan and Ugandan oil the key factor to justify the project. You can remind yourself with the link below.
East Africa port project launched
TanzaGIZAstans saiziNone of those countries have a refinery or a refined petrolium pipeline. .. look at the lapseet blueprint... So the projects involved are very much still up for grabs....Besides that, Lapsset and vision 2030 was announced in 2005, and was officially launched in 2008, At that time Kenya had not even discovered oil! And didnt South Sudan gain independence in 2011?
BTW did you know that there are 10 mega projects that were selected and endorsed by AU as the most strategic and important projects of the decade and Lapsset features as No. 9 in the list.... But off all the 10 projects, Lapsset is the only one that has taken off.... Alot of counteies sign deals and make plans but they never dollow through... There was a time Ethiopia PM signed a deal with Tanzania to use her ports... Where is the deal now? Ethiopia has signed dealls with almost all the ports in the region, but which port is ahead of the rest????Do a study on chinas model of economic growth and why it was successful......for example population around sgr stations was very low but due to infrastructural development things change many business have sprung up and other private invesetments structures are coming up.The population in Lamu was very low but due to the ongoing construction the population Has increased thus more business which enhance development and creation of jobs.