Party one: An article from an analyst. Enjoying reading.
CCM: CENTRAL COMMITTEE TEAM AND ITS IMPLICATIONS
Introduction
After a delay of five months, Chama cha Mapinduzi finally announced a new team to sit in the Central Committee. Majority members in the new 14-member team are light weight and very green politicians without well tested solid background raising questions over their ability to make tough decisions. Fears are that without strong base and accumulated experience,
New wine in old bottle
At long last Chama cha Mapinduzi announced a Central Committee that, however, has steered heated public debate revolving around political competence, absorption capacity and ability to make rational judgments at a time when the party is dangerously sliding into regional, religious, ethnicity and divisive succession politics ahead of 2015 general elections.
It will be recalled that on being re-elected national party chairman in Dodoma during the party congress September, President Jakaya Kikwete, asked congress delegates to give him time before naming a new Central Committee team because, according to him, he needed time to screen and pick only those untainted with corruption and other unethical allegations.
That it took him five solid months before announcing the new team, is a reminder how vexing the exercise including trade-offs among the various political groups within the party were carried. It is also a pointer to the daunting task of retaining into party fold disgruntled elements and to avert possible party disintegration and defections.
At the very top is the exclusion from the 14- member Central Committee of all names of presidential hopefuls namely Edward Lowassa, Benard Membe, Fredrick Sumaye, Samuel Sitta, John Magufuli, Harrison Mwakyembe and Professor Mark Mwandoysia. Instead, the President named: Dr. Salim Ahmed Salim, Professor Makame Mbarawa, Dr. Hussein Mwinyi, Maua Daftari, Khadija Aboud, Samia Suluhu Hassan and Shamsi Vuai Nahodha all from Zanzibar to sit in the powerful Central Committee.
President Kikwete also named Professor Anna Tibaijuka, Emmanuel Nchimbi, Stephen Wassira, William Lukuvi, Pinda Chana, Adam Kimbisa and Jerry Slaa from Mainland Tanzania as new Central Committee members.
Under the CCM constitution, members to the Central Committee (seven each from Zanzibar and Mainland Tanzania) are picked by the party national chairman. Interestingly, all those picked from Zanzibar are Muslims, while those from Mainlanders with the exception of one (Adam Kimbisa), are Christians. In terms of gender there are five women and eight males.
But in a country where religious sentiments are creeping dangerously signaling that even votes may eventually be cast on religious lines more than anything else, there is every reason for fear for the unknown. Already people are saying, based on the composition of new Central Committee team, the next presidential candidate will be picked on religious basis with a Muslim candidate standing a better chance because Muslims make up the majority. Under the CCM constitution, the Central Committee is responsible for scrutinizing/screening names of aspirants for the various party leadership positions including those vying for the presidential post.
A detailed analysis of those picked by President Kikwete to the Central Committee indicates that with the exception of Emmanuel Nchimbi and Shamsi Vuai Nahodha the rest are new comers to the Central Committee. Dr. Salim used to sit in the Central Committee during the reign of Mwalimu Nyerere in late 1980s; meaning after such a long period outside, he is also a new comer. While Professor Tibaijuka is known for her uprightness and no-nonsense position on matters of principle, the rest are not likely to take any different line from their chairman, who unfortunately, is known for not being serious on anything. Both Emmanuel Nchimbi and William Lukuvi are lyrical sycophants of the President and their nomination has solidified the argument that they are there to support the agenda of their chairman right or wrong. The same story applies to Stephen Wassira, who despite of being the oldest in the team, he has the tendency of swinging like pendulum from side to other depending on the direction of the political wind. Nothing is known about the rest of the Central Committee members, but one cannot rule out that they share similar traits like the rest. Equally important, all of them lack clearly identifiable political power base of their own, which limits their influence over ranks and files of party members.
Dr. Salim: Another chance too late
The most interesting political development in CCM has been the nomination of Dr. Salim Ahmed Salim to the Central Committee. An international known diplomat, Dr. Salim came second behind President Kikwete in the presidential race in 2005. In fact there is a common agreement that Dr. Salim was a victim of mudsling and political character assassination by none other than Kikwete camp team. Supporters of President Kikwete portrayed Dr. Salim during party campaign as an Arab agent of the hated Sultan regime overthrown in the bloody Zanzibar revolution of 1964. He was even accused of taking part in the plot to assassinate Zanzibar President and Chairman of Revolutionary Council, Abeid Karume who died as he ruled through the gun in 1972. Selected editors for media outlets supporting Kikwete's candidature were paid handsomely by the Kikwete camp to portray Dr. Salim in the media as someone not to be trusted, and at worst to be shunned like bubonic plague.
Thus the sudden and unexpected u-turn by the same Kikwete to bring Dr. Salim into fold and specifically to sit in the party's powerful Central Committee, has raised a lot of eyebrows. Many were expecting a public apology on the unfounded accusations leveled against him before any attempt to bring him into party fold. The reason is very simple. If someone is accused of plotting to assassinate a head of state, that person is automatically an enemy of the people. And unless his accuser makes public apology, he will carry the scar throughout his life. Conversely, the accuser has a case against the republic for failing to report to relevant authorities about a public enemy who plotted the assassination of head of state. Which is why Kikwete must be restless as what will happen when he retires; and is called upon to give evidence as Mkapa did on professor Mahalu's case.
Insiders, however, say the move is part of efforts by the new party Vice Chairman, Philip Mangula to bring back into party fold respected personalities who opted to keep a distance from the dying party after being disparaged by the Kikwete's political network (mtandao) through mudslinging, character assassination, sabotage and outright lying in 2005. Ever since his elevation to the Vice Chairman Philip Mangula has fronted a house cleaning agenda against unethical leaders, while at the same time bringing into party fold respected party elders who were send packing by former secretary general, Yusuf Makamba. That explains why the new list of Central Committee members is made up of unknown and untainted names. In fact some even say the new Central Committee names were picked by Mangula himself and handed over to Kikwete for endorsement.
The other obvious reason is that the move is geared to nip in the bud emerging hostile party camps ahead of 2015 general elections. Given the pivotal role played by the Central Committee in screening party candidates, it is obvious, the presence of those harboring presidential ambitions would have used their presence in the committee to influence selection criteria. Another line of thinking is that, having offended him by damaging his political career, President Kikwete is trying to give a new chance to Dr. Salim to contest presidential seat come 2015. The fact he came second despite the horrendous accusations leveled against him, means that he still has a chance in 2015. Unfortunately even if he is nominated by his party, Dr. Salim cannot win for two main reasons. First, his advanced age is a big limiting factor when one considers the age of the voters. At the age of 71 even within CCM rank and file he is yesterday man. Dr. Salim's popularity is grounded with the post independence generation voters who are now in their late fifties and sixties. But these are very few and much fewer are likely to vote in 2015.
With 51 per cent of the population aged below 30, Tanzania is a young society, and considering that many of the people who profited from the privatized public institutions and from outright stealing are older and part of the established elite, the younger, dotcom generation have their interests dramatically opposed to the interests and concerns of post independence generation. It goes without saying voters want younger MPs and Presidents. To people of Dr. Salim's age this is a big setback. Thus much as he has another chance, that chance has come too late.
Dr. Salim's best chance to the Presidency was in 1985 when he was fronted by founding father Mwalimu Nyerere to succeed him. The scheme however, was blocked by Mwinyi's friends on the argument that it was wrong to skip the Vice President and go for the Prime Minister. He could not attempt in the next election after taking up a post in Addis Ababa as Secretary General of the Organization of African Unity (OAU) now AU (African Union).
The second reason is the Zanzibar factor. There is growing agreement among the Mainlanders that they will never vote for a presidential candidate from Zanzibar come sun come rain. To them Ali Hassan Mwinyi was the first and last President from Zanzibar. Their position is that Zanzibar leaders are less informed on the challenges facing Mainlanders and therefore are of no use.
Interestingly, this is happening when already CCM in Zanzibar is agitating for the next Union Presidential candidate to come from Zanzibar. The CCM leadership in Zanzibar is also calling to revert to the alternating arrangement of presidential seat between Mainland and Zanzibar.
According to the Zanzibar based CCM Deputy Secretary General Vuai Ali Vuai, CCM members in Zanzibar equally were opposed to having the Zanzibar presidential candidate picked in Dodoma. They want all nomination process of Zanzibar presidential candidates done in Zanzibar
Edward Lowassa , is he fighting a loosing battle?
Perhaps the biggest political casualty in the new leadership changes is the beleaguered former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa. He was forced to resign from premiership post in 2008 after being implicated in the famous Richmond scandal. It will be recalled that as part of his 2015 election campaign strategy, Lowassa financed elections for most of his surrogates in almost all party sittings specifically in the National Executive Committee (NEC), districts and regional party chairmen and in the party's youth league, parents and women party wings. Several MPs always talk openly of being bankrolled by him during the 2010 general election on the understanding that come 2015 they should team up to ensure his (Lowassa) ascendancy to the Presidency.
Lowassa is equally known for influencing appointments of almost all District Commissioners and in other influential /sensitive positions in defense and security organs, election management bodies and the like. It is also well known that Lowassa has a private intelligence network outside CCM that enables him to manipulate even information within the state intelligence services to his advantage after infiltrating it through the power of the purse at his disposal. One should be reminded that it was his failure to explain the sources of richness at his age, which prompted the late Mwalimu Nyerere to strike off his name from presidential aspirants' list in 1995.
His exclusion from the Central Committee means one thing. He cannot influence decisions anymore. It was not surprising therefore, that immediately his name was not included in the Central Committee team; the CCM Youth League leadership also stripped him his position as Chairman of CCM Youth League Board of Trustees. Lowassa was replaced by Emmanuel Nchimbi, who is also home affairs minister and a lyrical sycophant of President Kikwete. The party youth league is very influential in leadership elections within the party. In fact it was the youth league under the same Nchimbi, which in 2005 was used by Kikwete to disparage respected candidates like Dr. Salim. Thus by replacing him, Lowassa has been deprived a very useful launching pad for his 2015 election campaign. The new board of trustees according to Martine Shigela, Secretary General of the party youth league includes Minister William Lukuvi another Kikwete political surrogate, lands minister professor Anna Tibaijuka and deputy finance minister Jane Mbene. There are also two members from Zanzibar: Hamad Yusuf Masauni and Mohammed Aboud.
It should be recalled on being rejected by Mwalimu Nyerere when he sought nomination for the presidential post in 1995; Edward Lowassa took a back seat and instead fronted Kikwete with the support of Rostam Aziz. All the political intrigues used to ensure Kikwete wins the Presidential seat were his making. No wonder on ascendancy to the saddle of power, Kikwete elevated Lowassa to the post of Prime Minister. And with Mwalimu Nyerere gone, he revived his presidential aspirations including retaining the network he had built. It is the same network, which the party leadership under Mangula is now working very hard to dismantle and cripple it down. His removal from the post of chairman of the Youth League Board of Trustees is part of that strategy.
Observers however, say the exercise is not going to be easy as Lowassa is still rearing his hydra head everywhere in the leadership of those organizations; and the fact that those elected to various party posts were sponsored by him and belong to his political network. What it means is that, having planted his surrogates in the party leadership at every level, Lowassa will continue to play mental games in the party leadership under Kikwete as long as no body has the courage to kick him out of the party as Nyerere did to Aboud Jumbe in 1984.
Even the failure to implement the party's sloughing (kujivua gamba) project, stemmed from the fact that no body, not even the chairman, had the audacity to face Lowassa head-on and challenge him to step down. Much as some sections in the ranks and files of party leadership want action against unethical leaders, they should not expect Kikwete to act because his hands are tied. Any move to expel Lowassa and his followers from the party will result in mass exodus by his followers specifically in leadership positions. Much as Kikwete's weakling and unpredictable leadership is already costing CCM very dearly in terms popularity and following any attempt to expel Lowassa will lead to break up the party and no one is ready for that. The only workable option is to weaken him slowly by clipping his wings until he can no longer fly or create hostile political environment that will force him to resign voluntarily the way his close associate Rostam Aziz did last year.
Knowing his fighting spirit, Lowassa is not likely to lie low like envelopes. He knows the weakness of his friend Kikwete. He will therefore fight to the bitter and end, and if possible will work to disparage the party to the advantage of the opposition. In his well calculated strategy, he has taken his campaign trail to Christian churches where he has been dishing out millions of cash in support of various religious projects including church buildings, schools and other fund raising activities. His target has been the emerging evangelical church movements some of which are nothing but personal/brief case entities set up as part of poverty denting efforts by their founders. Usually leaders of these churches are only interested with the donation from followers and people like Lowassa for their personal needs. Well established institutions like the Roman Catholic Church have kept a distance from the disgraced former Prime Minister. In fact, the head of the Roman Catholic Church in Tanzania, Cardinal Policarp Pengo, issued a special directive to Churches throughout the country telling them not to invite people like Lowassa for fund raising for whatever reason, without first seeking permission from him personally. It is clear the Cardinal is concerned that associating his church with disgraced persons over stolen public money will be interpreted to mean that, the church was blessing corruption in public offices.
Edward Lowassa comes from little known Meru ethnic group in Arusha. His family, however, moved and settled in Monduli. He therefore prefers himself to be referred to as Maasai. Interestingly, much as he very influential in the party and government circles, he has no base at the grassroots level. His political approach is that if one wins support from the establishment including the media, it is much easier to win public support at the grassroots level. It is from such line of thinking that he has always targeted leaders in strategic positions like DCs, RCs, MPs, women and youth groups, leaders in NGOs, academia and editors. However, when the linkages and all networks are clipped, his power base would automatically disappear. And indeed that is what Mangula is using to weaken his power base step by step.
Mangula has also targeted the lords of political graft. Addressing party members in Dar es Salaam on November 18, 2012, Mangula warned that those known to have bribed their way to leadership positions in the party, will be ditched out within six months. The same fate, he said will fall on those who were used as agents by the graft lords in distributing "envelopes" during the electoral process. The danger here, however, is that, the moment the graft lords are ditched out of leadership or even expelled from the party, they will regroup into a splinter party or even join some of the weakling opposition parties which have been created as standby to challenge CCM.
No wonder to date, no action has been taken against those who distributed money in envelops in the Dodoma party congress.
Membe: Torch bearer of the Kikwete family
The weakening of the Lowassa political camp is likely to benefit Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Minister Bernard Membe for a number of reasons. First, Membe is being sponsored by the Kikwete family. Membe is cousin to Salma Kikwete, the First Lady. It goes without saying that even members of Central Committee will rally behind their chairman and therefore indirectly support Membe. Already ministers Nchimbi and Lukuvi are known to be in support of Membe candidature, the same story goes to Stephen Wassira, another minister who is known for shifting political alliance depending on the direction of the political wind at any given time.
Another reason is that Membe comes from a smaller tribe. He is Makonde from Mtama constituency in Lindi. However, the fact that immediate retired President Benjamin Mkapa also hails from the same tribe, is a disadvantage to him because Tanzanians are not used to family dynasties like say in India or Kenya.
The biggest problem with Membe, however, is that he lacks a solid political power base of his own. Actually save for those in diplomatic circles very few people know him. His political future depends entirely on the support from Kikwete family. Membe aged 60, is part of the state intelligence agents attached to the ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation where he served as desk officer. When Kikwete become foreign minister, he was posted to Canada as embassy attaché. From there he contested parliamentary seat for Mtama constituency. He was first appointed by President Kikwete as deputy home affairs minister before being promoted to full minister at his current post. Given that he lacks working experience in the public service and that he has no political base of his own, he is fighting a losing battle.
His critics also point out his failings as foreign minister. They cite the endless foreign trips President Kikwete was making as indicator of a weak foreign minister. They say the President was offsetting /covering up his ministry's weakness by doubling himself president and foreign minister. Ever since his elevation to the Presidency, Kikwete make endless trips abroad earning a nick name of Sindbad the Sailor in reference to the ancient Persian Gulf traveler who crisscrossed continents and oceans in search of new knowledge and to pave way for business. Others simply call him Vasco da Gama.
The fact that Membe has allowed the President to make endless trips abroad at the expense of domestic engagements is seen by many as signs of weakness of the minister in charge together with ambassadors posted abroad. And if he cannot handle ministry affairs how can be cope with national pressing issues!
Another problem with Membe is that he has many political enemies created under the umbrella of Kikwete election network (mtandao). For example, it is common knowledge that Membe was among those used to tarnish political careers of those seen as potential rival to Kikwete for the presidency. At the top of the list is Dr. Hassy Kitine who was forced to resign as minister in the president's office. Dr. Kitine was targeted for mudsling by the Kikwete camp through Benard Membe because of his closeness to Mwalimu Nyerere and President Mkapa. Dr. Kitine, who served as Director General of the Intelligence Services) under Mwalimu Nyerere, is the one who persuaded Mwalimu to support Mkapa for presidency. It is understood, Mkapa in turn wanted to pick Kitine prime minister and eventually his successor. But the Kikwete camp through Membe disrupted everything by concocting and fabricating mountains of allegations, which received maximum publicity in all media outlets lined up in the smear campaign syndicate. It therefore goes without saying people like Dr. Kitine and his supporters will never lie low and allow Membe to sail free. Already Membe has warned of a possible political "war" with Dr. Kitine should he (Kitine) continue to with allegations that he was making endless trip to Morocco in the name of mediating in the Western Sahara political impasse when actually he was running a hotel in Rabat, Morocco's capital.
The reason why the Kikwete family wants Membe to succeed him has much to do with their newly acquired wealth. It has also to do with the uncertain future of President Kikwete when he retires from office given the crude methods used to ascend to the presidency. They are fearful that should the next President stand by the law, all their illegally acquired wealth will be nationalized by the state and that a number of leaders including Kikwete will be dragged before courts of law to answer charges related to power abuse. The fact that retired President Mkapa was forced to appear in court does not augur well for the likes of Kikwete and his cohorts. People like Kitine may also take him to court for damaging their career and demand compensations.
Mwinyi/Migiro: Bearers of the Islamic Flag
If the new Central Committee team is to provide a glimmer as who is likely to be the party's torch bearer come 2015, and assuming everything remain equal then, Dr. Hussein Mwinyi becomes the front liner. Not only that he has been elevated to the party's powerful position, but also he enjoys the support of both the current President and his father, retired President Ali Hassan Mwinyi. Equally his age allows as he is the youngest of all the current aspirants who have come forward.
Equally important, there are also Islamic and Zanzibar factors to be taken into consideration. Sections of militant Muslims are understood pressurizing President Kikwete to hand over power to a fellow Muslim rather than Kafir (Christian). Names have already been drawn by the Dar es Salaam Club made up of Muslim hardliners. Under the Dar es Salaam Club scheme, Dr. Hussein Mwinyi, son of retired president Ali Hassan Mwinyi will be their choice from Zanzibar and if necessary he should pair with Dr. Asha Rose Migiro as running mates. Dr. Migiro who was elevated to head the foreign and international directorate at the party headquarters after the Dodoma congress is also being touted on gender consideration. Apart from the fact that both Mwinyi and Asha Rose Migiro are Muslims all other contestants are Christians.
Equally important, voices from Zanzibar are emerging that it is their turn to produce the head of State. Unless the pending constitution states otherwise, there is every indicator the party will face another crisis over succession to President Kikwete.
Another factor is retired President Mwinyi. It is now increasingly becoming clear that Mwinyi is working very hard behind the scenes to ensure his son succeeds President Kikwete. President Kikwete has turned to Mwinyi the elder for advice on various issues after distancing himself from his old friend Lowassa.
According to impeccable sources, the succession scheme is spreading its tentacles to upcountry regions including Kagera region where Hamis Kagasheki, minister for natural resources and tourism is reported working very hard to create an Islamic strong hold in his Bukoba constituency. In fact, according to reports, even the standoff between him and Bukoba Municipal Mayor over business plots revolves around religious and succession issues. It is understood Kagasheki is working very hard to impose Islamic politics in a community where 85 per cent of the population are Catholics. Part of the drive is that his son is married to the daughter of Ali Hassan Mwinyi, which added impetus to see to it that a Mwinyi family member succeeds President Kikwete in 2015.
The plan, according to the Dar es Salaam Club is to pair Dr. Hussein and Dr. Migiro as running mates. Dr. Hussein Mwinyi is a medical doctor by training while Dr. Asha Rose Migiro is a lawyer. She used to teach law at the faculty of law of the University of Dar es Salaam until she was appointed by President Kikwete to succeed him at the ministry of foreign affairs and international cooperation before being appointed Deputy UN Secretary General. Both Migiro and Mwinyi have no political base of their own and cannot stand on their own. Their hope is banked on the inbuilt perception within the CCM leadership and ranks alike that the moment one is through the screening processes then he has won the Presidency. What they forget is that unlike in the one -party rule, there is CHADEMA outside there with very strong candidates and a huge following among the youth, who are the voters. Failure to pick the right candidate with right attitude will see CCM lose power come 2015. Matters will be even worse if Islam is taken as the sole selling line.
Samuel Sitta: End of the long road
At the age of 71, Samuel Sitta is the oldest of all presidential hopefuls but who enjoys a strong political power base of his own making. Sitta is also the longest serving cabinet minister having served four Presidents since the days of founding father Mwalimu Nyerere when he served as works minister in the 1970s. A lawyer by training Sitta has a strong political base in his home turf Tabora region where he comes from a chiefdom family. The late Chief Said Abdalla Fundikira who served in the post independence cabinet was his uncle. Coming from Nyamwezi tribe, he enjoys support from neighboring tribes especially the Sukuma who makes up 13 percent of the country's population. Both Nyamwezi and Sukuma speak identical vernacular. He is also a Christian and a big football belonging to Simba sports club, which has a following of over 5 million people across the country. If these variables are what determines the voting pattern then Sitta stands a better chance of winning the Presidency than all others.
Relatedly and equally important, Sitta also enjoys wider public support after serving as Parliamentary Speaker. The manner in which he handled parliamentary proceedings when compared to what is happening now under Anna Makinda, earns him extra political marks. It will be recalled that it was from the parliamentary probe committee set up by him that forced the resignation of Edward Lowassa from his prime ministerial post over the Richmond scandal. That also explains the enmity that followed between him and Lowassa on one hand, and between Lowassa and Dr. Mwakyembe who chaired the parliamentary probe committee on the other hand. His major disadvantage like that of Dr. Salim as already stated elsewhere is the advanced age factor.
Another potential candidate is former Prime Minister Fredrick Sumaye. He is, however, disadvantaged on account that he is currently outside both party and government circles.
Religious Politics
Religious affiliation is one of the factors that define identity in an environment in which individuals face poverty, weak state institutions and few formal security networks. Religious links like tribal links provide powerful alternatives to networks of support. And in a country characterized by income divide and where the majority are excluded from accessing to economic opportunities, religious and tribal sentiments do take centre stage over political parties, which means very little in so far as bread and butter issues are concerned. If the income divide is not resolved, there is every indicator voters in Tanzania will start voting on religious lines. Perhaps this is one area, which all political actors across party divide need to address seriously.
Conclusion
Chama cha Mapinduzi is still teetering in divisive and vindictive politics (siasa za kulipizana kisasi), which does not augur well for its future. After the Dodoma conference it is very clear the Lowassa camp came not only wounded but also weakened. His exclusion from the Central Committee has weakened him even further. On the other hand, while Membe scored few political goals with the support of the Kikwete family. His position has also been boosted with the elevation of Emmanuel Nchimbi and William to the Central Committee. But that is where the trouble starts. Lowassa will never lie low like envelopes. He will fight back given the amount of money at his disposal; and if possible work for the opposition so that both lose (na tukose wote).
Dr. Hussein Mwinyi and Asha Rose Migiro, appears to stand a better chance than all others. However, the religious path being used is going to boomerang terribly against them because no Christian will be ready to vote them given the creeping enmity between Christians and Muslims. Likewise, the Zanzibar factor is another drawback to Dr. Mwinyi. The record of both his father as head of state and that of his own at the ministry of health does not work in their favor. Dr. Salim Ahmed Salim and Samuel Sitta are hand capped by their advanced age while Fredrick Sumaye remains outside the political lime light. It is fair therefore, to suggest that CCM has a long way to go in searching for the right presidential torch bearer come 2015. Given that Tanzania is a young society, it will be wise to identify and groom young and upcoming politicians for the presidency.
At the party level, much work still remains. Promise by Mangula that all those who won elective posts in the party and their supporters through unethical practice will be shunted out in six months of investigation, is still unfulfilled. Meanwhile, the party secretariat has opened confidential files for Lowassa, Membe and Sitta in order to track their political actions, which in the eyes of the party leadership are against party ethics and leadership code of conduct.