Gas discoveries in east Africa; Making the most of a good situation

[nngu007]

Gas discoveries in east Africa

Feb 7th 2013, 17:34 by V.R. | LONDON


IT HAS been an astonishing past year for gas discoveries in east Africa. Large finds off the coasts of Mozambique and Tanzania have turned those countries into major players in the world gas market. A more modest discovery off Kenya has led to optimism that richer finds are on the way. The flow of dollars into the region should help finance essential development and lead to a decline in expensive fuel imports. But with the benefits comes the threat of damaging side effects if the countries do not manage their buried treasure carefully.

One of the risks these countries now face is "Dutch disease", a term coined by The Economist. If a large influx of foreign money pushes up the value of local currencies, traditional exporters might struggle to remain competitive, despite their access to cheap and reliable gas. Mozambique's government plans to raise $6-8 billion a year in gas exports, which would treble the country's export volume and could put pressure on its traditional exports.

According to Antonio Franco, a Maputo-based representative of USAID, agriculture is the most likely sector to lose out. "Niche markets, such as shrimps, will be less affected as they have high profit margins. But producers of basic commodities such as corn, cotton and cashew nuts could face big problems because they compete on price." This is particularly problematic because three quarters of the population works in agriculture.

Oil-producing countries like Angola, Gabon and Nigeria offer cautionary tales. Nigeria, for example, was once a major exporter of produce, but its economy is now dominated by oil and gas, which account for 97% of its exports. Angola's main export was coffee until petroleum took over in the early-1970s. Coffee producers continued to export large volumes throughout the civil war, but found that they could not compete internationally once Angola ramped up its oil production in the post-war years. Gabon has less of the black stuff, but in his book "Untapped: The Scramble for Africa's Oil", John Ghazvinian shared a troubling observation: he couldn't find a banana for sale, though the country is full of banana trees.

The real trouble comes when gas prices drop or the fuel runs out and traditional sectors, like agriculture and manufacturing, are unable to prop up the economy.

The new discoveries provide an opportunity to boost those sectors, but there is a fear that capital will instead be diverted to the gas sector.

Joseph Stiglitz has warned east African countries that they need to do more to avoid the resource curse, including improving transparency and renegotiating bad contracts. Tanzania and Mozambique have both drawn criticism for failing to publish details of their deals with exploration companies, but some of Mr Stiglitz's advice is being heeded. Tanzania's energy minister has ordered a review of all 26 production-sharing agreements that have been signed as he considers some to be "shoddy". In a bid to increase its share of wealth from its gas resources, Mozambique's government recently introduced a 32% capital-gains tax on all future gas asset takeovers.

Both countries are also mulling the creation of national development banks and sovereign-wealth funds. Investing abroad and bringing the wealth home slowly would inoculate the countries against Dutch disease. But locals starved of investment and distrustful of politicians may want to see the profits at work more quickly.

Source; The Economist

 

[CHASHA FARMING]

Ila huko Tunako Enda nina shaka sana na hizi Gesi na Mafuta make yanaweza kuwa kama Mahindi tu, Kwa sasa Mataifa Mengi sana yamegundua Mafuta na Gesi, USA inajiandaa kuanza Kuchimba Gesi yake na Mafuta hivyo Kuifanya iwe ya kwanza Kwa kutoa Gesi nyingi Duniani baada ya URUSI,

BRAZIL Taifa la Sita kwa Uchumi Mkubwa Duniani kwa sasa inachimba Gesi yake na Mafuta,kwa wingi sana, Nchi kama Australia imegundua kiasi kukubwa mno cha Mafuta na Gesi kiwango ambacho Australia iligundua ni kikubwa sana,

Somali Landa iliyo jitenga kutoka Somalia wanajindaa kuanza Kuchimba Mafuta na Gesi yao mwaka Huu, Madagasca nao hawako nyuma wana resevu ya kufa mtu ya Mafuta na gesi,

Kuna kipindi kitafika kutakuwa hakuna wa Kumuuzia hii gesi na Mafauta make kila mtu anatakuwa nayo, China na Japani wanapambana kwenye kale kakisiwa mbako kana Gesi ya Kufa Mtu,

kma taifa kama USA ambao alikuwa ni Moja wa wanunuzi wakuu kabisa wa Gesi na Mafuta duniani akianza kuchimba yake na kuuza hapo soko lazima lishuke balaa na kufanya oili kuto kuwa na thamani ndo maana baadhi ya waarabu walisha anza kushituka kwa sasa wanajikita kwenye viwanda make wanajua mwisho wa neema unakaribia

 

[Pascal Mayalla]

Kiukweli gesi ambayo inaonekana kama mkombozi, inaweza kabisa kuwa a curse kama Niger Delta!.Tanzania hatujifunzi paisa ka wenzetu!, kama mpaka sasa nchi yetu hatuna sera ya mafuta na gesi, hii mikataba yote 26 ya PSA na makampuni ya utafutaji gesi na mafuta yakiongozwa na BG Group, imeingiwa kwa nini ?!, tumenegotiate vipi? na kwa kutumia terms gani wakati hatuna sera ya gesi, hatuna sheria ya gesi, sasa hizo PSA tmeziingia kwa sheria gani?.

Haya lets hope hatimaye tutapata sera yetu ya gesi na mafuta ambayo tutaiungia sheria yetu ya gesi na mafuta, na kutunga kanuni, halafu ndio tufanye mapitio ya hii mikataba 26 iliyopo!?. Kwa msiojua, baada ya kampuni ya Barrick kuingia mikataba ya kinyonyaji ya kutuibia madini yetu, serikali ikaamua tufanye mapitio ya mikataba yote ya madini na kupitisha sera mpya, mpaka kesho, kampuni ya Barrick imegoma kata kata kubadili kipengele chochote cha mikataba yao, kwa kisingizio it's loss making!, na serikali yetu ikakubali kirahisi na kunywea kisa ni wawekezaji!, huku nchini Tanzania wakijidai they making looses, lakini prospectus ya Barrick waliofanyia nayo IPO ya London, ikionyesha it is huge profit making company hadi kuunda kampuni tanzu ya ABG na kufloat shares zake kwenye London Stock Market, kama ni kweli Barrick are making losses, wasingethubutu kupeleka pua London Stock Exchange.

Hawa wazungu are taking us for a ride while wahusika wakuu wakishikishwa!.

Paskali.

 

[Mwanahisa]

Kiukweli gesi ambayo inaonekana kama mkombozi, inaweza kabisa kuwa a curse kama Niger Delta!.Tanzania hatujifunzi paisa ka wenzetu!, kama mpaka sasa nchi yetu hatuna sera ya mafuta na gesi, hii mikataba yote 26 ya PSA na makampuni ya utafutaji gesi na mafuta yakiongozwa na BG Group, imeingiwa kwa nini ?!, tumenegotiate vipi? na kwa kutumia terms gani wakati Havana Serb, embryo ingezaa sheriff ya gesi ya gesi mafuta?!.

Haya hatimaye tutapata sera yetu ya gesi na mafuta ambayo tutaiundia sheria yetu ya gesi na mafuta, halafu ndio tufanye mapitio ya his mikataba 26 iliyopo!?. Kwa msiojua, baada ya kampuni ya Barick kuingia mikataba ya kinyonyaji ya madini, serikali ikaamua tufanye mapitio ya mikataba note ya madini na kupitisha sera mpya, mpaka kesho, kampuni ya Barick imegoma kata kata kubadili chochote kwa kisingizio it's loss making!, na serikali yetu ikakubali kirahisi na kunywea!, huku prospectus ya Barick ikionyesha huge profit hadi kuunda kampuni tanzu ya ABG na kufloat shares zake kwenye London Stock Market,, kama ni kweli Barrick are making loss, wasingethubutu kupeleka pua London.

Hawa wazungu are taking us for a ride!.

Pasco.

Pasco nimekuelewa sawia Kaka, yaani ni sawa na mboga ya maharage iko mezani ila tunajaribu kujadiliana irudishwe jikoni ikakorogewe chumvi ndio iletwe tena mezani. Kwa vyovyote vile chumvi haitakolea vilivyo.

 

[Pascal Mayalla]

Kiukweli gesi ambayo inaonekana kama mkombozi, inaweza kabisa kuwa a curse kama Niger Delta!.Tanzania hatujifunzi paisa ka wenzetu!, kama mpaka sasa nchi yetu hatuna sera ya mafuta na gesi, hii mikataba yote 26 ya PSA na makampuni ya utafutaji gesi na mafuta yakiongozwa na BG Group, imeingiwa kwa nini ?!, tumenegotiate vipi? na kwa kutumia terms gani wakati hatuna sera ya gesi, hatuna sheria ya gesi, sasa hizo PSA tmeziingia kwa sheria gani?.

Haya lets hope hatimaye tutapata sera yetu ya gesi na mafuta ambayo tutaiungia sheria yetu ya gesi na mafuta, na kutunga kanuni, halafu ndio tufanye mapitio ya hii mikataba 26 iliyopo!?. Kwa msiojua, baada ya kampuni ya Barrick kuingia mikataba ya kinyonyaji ya kutuibia madini yetu, serikali ikaamua tufanye mapitio ya mikataba yote ya madini na kupitisha sera mpya, mpaka kesho, kampuni ya Barrick imegoma kata kata kubadili kipengele chochote cha mikataba yao, kwa kisingizio it's loss making!, na serikali yetu ikakubali kirahisi na kunywea kisa ni wawekezaji!, huku nchini Tanzania wakijidai they making looses, lakini prospectus ya Barrick waliofanyia nayo IPO ya London, ikionyesha it is huge profit making company hadi kuunda kampuni tanzu ya ABG na kufloat shares zake kwenye London Stock Market, kama ni kweli Barrick are making losses, wasingethubutu kupeleka pua London Stock Exchange.

Hawa wazungu are taking us for a ride while wahusika wakuu wakishikishwa!.

Paskali.

Mar 3, 2013
Joined: Sep 22, 2008