analyst75
JF-Expert Member
- Jun 24, 2015
- 326
- 242
When I put on a trade, all I expect is that something will happen. Mark Douglas
With a great interest, Ive been watching the events in the Eurozone. I didnt write about Greek debt crisis because I wanted to see how things turned out. Many economists and financial journalists have written interesting articles about this issue, stating the causes, effects and possible consequences. I dont think repetition is mandatory.
Whats happening to Greece is what a nation eventually suffers if their government cant spend within their means. The US government is another good example of a government that cant spend within their means, and wise people now ponder the dire/grim consequences that would result in future.
Greece has serious economic problems, and shes now been given this week to submit a new reform plan. In spite of Eurogroup meetings from time to time, no solutions have been agreed upon. Eurozone leaders will meet on Sunday to try to reach a new deal.
Greek Withdrawal from the Eurozone
Experts are debating whether Greece would eventually quit or be forced to quit the Eurozone. Its possible that Eurozone leaders and Greece would be able to agree on viable solutions; otherwise, the inevitable might occur. Anything is possible, and of course, with grave effects.
It is expected that if Greece withdrew from the Eurozone, the withdrawal would cause a great impact on Greek economy, Eurozone economy and world economy. But no matter what happens, the sun will continue to rise in the east and set in the west. I dont expect any serious effects in the currency markets.
Current and Future Effects of Greek Debt Crisis on Forex
Since the media started shouting about the Greek debt crisis, there havent been any serious effects on the Forex market. The press will always try to find something to write about and whenever the market moves, analysts will try to pinpoint causes for the movement.
The market has a knack for going against peoples expectation. Events that people dont anticipate are what cause surprise moves, not events that people anticipate. People didnt anticipate the unprecedented CHF pairs volatility and there were surprise consequences. Another instance of an event that caused surprise movements was the last major earthquake in Japan, which also caused nuclear fallout.
There are years in which the markets move very strongly (like the year 2008) and there are years in which the markets dont move very strongly (like the year 2014). Speculators, especially trend-followers, find it easier to harness decent gains when the markets trend strongly.
When the market goes into an equilibrium phase, then sooner or later, there would be an increase in volatility. Conversely, a strong trending movement would eventually lead to low volatility and more predictable outcome. Time indeed factors in economic events and resulting financial consequences.
Within May June 2015, there was low volatility in the market, and as a result of that, trend-following strategies suffered. Nevertheless, a measure of volatility has returned to the Forex market since the end of June.
Someone whos seen oceans and seas will definitely find a pool in the bathroom negligible. On June 29, 2015, the EUR pair and JYP pairs gapped downwards massively. They later bounced upwards and began to trend downwards the following day. They then consolidated till the end of the week. The same price action was repeated on EUR pair and JPY pairs this week, though the downwards gaps were less significant than the gaps of the last week.
What has happened in the market so far is nothing special and nothing special will happen in the weeks and months to come. Any movements or gaps we see wont be more serious than what weve seen so far since the beginning of this year.
Many Will Survive the Markets Unpredictability, You Can Too
Some people want to stay away from EUR pairs, whereas theres no movement on them thats more serious than the movement on AUD pairs, NZD pairs, CAD pairs and JPY pairs. Dont expect any surprises when the public are anticipating them. Surprises come when the public dont anticipate them.
EUR pairs would continue to move up and down - as usual but therell be no great deal about that. What happened to EUR pairs on June 29 had an adverse effect on me. Id 3 long positions that were all stopped out at 0.75% loss (0.25% X 3 = 0.75%). Was there a big deal in that?
What happened on July 6 had positive effect on my short trades and I gained 2.0%. Again, there was no big deal in that. The market may move slowly against you or in your favor. The market may move fast against you or in your favor, but youll be fine as long as you truncate your negativity.
Please remain faithful to your positive expectancy trading method in times of losses and in times of gains. Life isnt a matter of holding good cards but of playing poor cards well. Nowadays, no trader has been dealt perfect market conditions. Often, the secret to gaining control is to both accept those circumstances and manage your trades within the limitations the markets impose on you.
As long as portfolios are concerned, many traders will survive the uncertainties of the future. May you survive as well.
So Greek debt crisis cant have any adverse impact on your accounts, if you know how to control risk. Though I find articles about the Eurozone interesting, I dont worry about how that can affect my accounts. Thats the beauty of trading.
Waiter, another bottle of Pepsi, please!
This piece is ended with the quote below:
Traders who devote less time to trying to beat the markets and more to mastering their own behaviour and emotion will often outperform those who go in all guns blazing. Trading at the end of the day is a long-term educational process and understanding this and having the patience to develop your skills properly will prove more fruitful in the long run. Ryhun Rahman
With a great interest, Ive been watching the events in the Eurozone. I didnt write about Greek debt crisis because I wanted to see how things turned out. Many economists and financial journalists have written interesting articles about this issue, stating the causes, effects and possible consequences. I dont think repetition is mandatory.
Whats happening to Greece is what a nation eventually suffers if their government cant spend within their means. The US government is another good example of a government that cant spend within their means, and wise people now ponder the dire/grim consequences that would result in future.
Greece has serious economic problems, and shes now been given this week to submit a new reform plan. In spite of Eurogroup meetings from time to time, no solutions have been agreed upon. Eurozone leaders will meet on Sunday to try to reach a new deal.
Greek Withdrawal from the Eurozone
Experts are debating whether Greece would eventually quit or be forced to quit the Eurozone. Its possible that Eurozone leaders and Greece would be able to agree on viable solutions; otherwise, the inevitable might occur. Anything is possible, and of course, with grave effects.
It is expected that if Greece withdrew from the Eurozone, the withdrawal would cause a great impact on Greek economy, Eurozone economy and world economy. But no matter what happens, the sun will continue to rise in the east and set in the west. I dont expect any serious effects in the currency markets.
Current and Future Effects of Greek Debt Crisis on Forex
Since the media started shouting about the Greek debt crisis, there havent been any serious effects on the Forex market. The press will always try to find something to write about and whenever the market moves, analysts will try to pinpoint causes for the movement.
The market has a knack for going against peoples expectation. Events that people dont anticipate are what cause surprise moves, not events that people anticipate. People didnt anticipate the unprecedented CHF pairs volatility and there were surprise consequences. Another instance of an event that caused surprise movements was the last major earthquake in Japan, which also caused nuclear fallout.
There are years in which the markets move very strongly (like the year 2008) and there are years in which the markets dont move very strongly (like the year 2014). Speculators, especially trend-followers, find it easier to harness decent gains when the markets trend strongly.
When the market goes into an equilibrium phase, then sooner or later, there would be an increase in volatility. Conversely, a strong trending movement would eventually lead to low volatility and more predictable outcome. Time indeed factors in economic events and resulting financial consequences.
Within May June 2015, there was low volatility in the market, and as a result of that, trend-following strategies suffered. Nevertheless, a measure of volatility has returned to the Forex market since the end of June.
Someone whos seen oceans and seas will definitely find a pool in the bathroom negligible. On June 29, 2015, the EUR pair and JYP pairs gapped downwards massively. They later bounced upwards and began to trend downwards the following day. They then consolidated till the end of the week. The same price action was repeated on EUR pair and JPY pairs this week, though the downwards gaps were less significant than the gaps of the last week.
What has happened in the market so far is nothing special and nothing special will happen in the weeks and months to come. Any movements or gaps we see wont be more serious than what weve seen so far since the beginning of this year.
Many Will Survive the Markets Unpredictability, You Can Too
Some people want to stay away from EUR pairs, whereas theres no movement on them thats more serious than the movement on AUD pairs, NZD pairs, CAD pairs and JPY pairs. Dont expect any surprises when the public are anticipating them. Surprises come when the public dont anticipate them.
EUR pairs would continue to move up and down - as usual but therell be no great deal about that. What happened to EUR pairs on June 29 had an adverse effect on me. Id 3 long positions that were all stopped out at 0.75% loss (0.25% X 3 = 0.75%). Was there a big deal in that?
What happened on July 6 had positive effect on my short trades and I gained 2.0%. Again, there was no big deal in that. The market may move slowly against you or in your favor. The market may move fast against you or in your favor, but youll be fine as long as you truncate your negativity.
Please remain faithful to your positive expectancy trading method in times of losses and in times of gains. Life isnt a matter of holding good cards but of playing poor cards well. Nowadays, no trader has been dealt perfect market conditions. Often, the secret to gaining control is to both accept those circumstances and manage your trades within the limitations the markets impose on you.
As long as portfolios are concerned, many traders will survive the uncertainties of the future. May you survive as well.
So Greek debt crisis cant have any adverse impact on your accounts, if you know how to control risk. Though I find articles about the Eurozone interesting, I dont worry about how that can affect my accounts. Thats the beauty of trading.
Waiter, another bottle of Pepsi, please!
This piece is ended with the quote below:
Traders who devote less time to trying to beat the markets and more to mastering their own behaviour and emotion will often outperform those who go in all guns blazing. Trading at the end of the day is a long-term educational process and understanding this and having the patience to develop your skills properly will prove more fruitful in the long run. Ryhun Rahman