If Current Growth Rate Remains Constant, Tanzania Will Overtake Kenya GDP in 2038

These kiind of predictions are ment to give people a general idea of where we are going if things stay as they are, they are however not ment o be taken as fact.... Its like footbal analysts trying to predict how the season will go throughout the year at the start of the year..... .. Then when the season starts, some good players get injury, some buy new players, some get disqualified... in the end anything can happen.....

I once read a PDF from the guy that wrote J.Kikwete's book, I think his name was ngorongoro or something... He was predicting in late 90's that Kenyan industries were stagnating and the economy was basically stangnant and he said Tanzania could supersede Kenya in early 2000s.....

And I think I see his point from this ... you can see that Tanzania was almost catching up with Kenya... And then things changes....10 year later it was 10 Billion apart.






Once again...The clock was reset and the count down begun again.... And then some folks in 2010 begun predicting again that Tanzania would overtake Kenya by 2025 based on projection...then one year later it was changed to 2030.... And this same forum Cicerio(if I rem correctly)Brout us a thread back in Jan or Feb that showed based of PwC that Tanzania GDP norminal would overtake Kenya by 2055



TZ economy to surpass Kenya, forecast shows. Hongera Kikwete!

Tanzania set to surpass Kenya as East Africa's economic giant | IOL

game over said:

Hizo projects ukijumlisha ni zaidi ya 50% ya GDP yao. Na hizo ni baadhi tu..
Kweli mkuu. Acha wajifariji.

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Hata sisi tuna project zetu.....zaidi ya $50Billion worth of project Kenya's multi-billion dollar megaprojects

kennedy0000 said:

The Azam guy owns big chunks of various markets.

And once again in your lazy mind you think only politicians can be millionaires. Hamuwezi endelea nyinyi.
In the media, SK Macharia is a billionaire. He is not a politician.
In manufacturing Vimal Shah is the biggest. He is not a politician.
In retail, the Shahs and the Tuskys family are billionaires. They are not politicians.
In real estate, the Murayas are probably billionaires. They are not politicians.
In banking, James Mwangi and others are billionaires. They are not politicians.

These are just the most notable ones from those fields. There are many more in the same fields who are dollar millionaires.

As you wait for your kids and grandkids to come exploit to 90%, Kenya will continue working now. Just pray that you're kids and grandkids won't start crossing over here the way Mexicans do to the US.

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Wewe hujui kitu ww, the azam guy is not the richest Tanzania, and he doesn't own big chunk of markets.

Hoshea said:

Wewe hujui kitu ww, the azam guy is not the richest Tanzania, and he doesn't own big chunk of markets.

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Hebu kuwa mkweli ww. Who then is the wealthiest guy in Tz? Azam is worth like $1bn, the wealthiest guy in East Africa, and by far the richest man in Tanzania.

Iconoclastes said:

Hebu kuwa mkweli ww. Who then is the wealthiest guy in Tz? Azam is worth like $1bn, the wealthiest guy in East Africa, and by far the richest man in Tanzania.

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Unakichaa! Azam Bakhresa hamfikii hata Rostam Aziz. Watu wanahela wewe underground. Rostam. watu wenye hela ni wakumwaga. Bakhresa ni ligi ya wakina Reginald Mengi.

Majamaa hayaijui kabisa Tanzania. leo nimejua majamaa hayaijui Tanzania yana fanya guess work tu.

Iconoclastes said:

Hebu kuwa mkweli ww. Who then is the wealthiest guy in Tz? Azam is worth like $1bn, the wealthiest guy in East Africa, and by far the richest man in Tanzania.

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MO ni young richest person in Africa according to Forbe. But Rostam ni zaidi ya MO.

Kobello said:

Actually, as the GDP increases, the % GDP growth decreases. Simple economics.

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If things were as simple as that then China wouldn't be growing at all, but is that the case?

When Gdp increases, more avenues are created by which more economic activities can take place, so the next increament in gdp by value in $ will be larger than the current. That's why countries are able to maintain or even increase their growth rate. Complex economics.

Livale said:

If things were as simple as that then China wouldn't be growing at all, but is that the case?

When Gdp increases, more avenues are created by which more economic activities can take place, so the next increament in gdp by value in $ will be larger than the current. That's why countries are able to maintain or even increase their growth rate. Complex economics.

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What's highlighted in red, doesn't nullify what you've quoted earlier. It's simple economics. The bigger the economy gets, the lower is the percentage growth.
I know simple things can get complex to others, but hey.

Kobello said:

What's highlighted in red, doesn't nullify what you've quoted earlier. It's simple economics. The bigger the economy gets, the lower is the percentage growth.
I know simple things can get complex to others, but hey.

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OK genius, explain your higher gdp growth rate from 2015 to date as compared to your 2004—2006 figures despite gdp having more than doubled.

If you'll not dabble around with unwarranted rhetorics, then I believe you'll have corrected yourself Pronto. But then this is a public forum, dabbling is just about the best guise to an uninformed reply as one ever gets, so help or please yourself as you dim fit.

game over said:

But someone do this maths for me ..

In 2015 Tz GDP was 48bn
And has maintained her growth at 7%

Kenya GDP was 63bn Maintaining her growth at 5.6%

How comes in 2017 Kenya GDP is 75bn and Tz's 51bn??

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[emoji23] [emoji23] [emoji23] wakenya muda wote ni uongo uongo na ukanjanja mwingj

kennedy0000 said:

UK gets most of its tea from Kenya. (Breakfast).
UAE gets a lot of livestock and fruits from Kenya.

Next time before boasting about overtaking us, remember Tanzania has a higher population but low gdp, double the land size but few tarmac and paved roads, half our annual infrastructure budget, half our defense budget... basically a lower budget for everything - health, education, security etc.

You have fertile lands everywhere but Kenya with most of the land desert still provides you with lots of milk... forcing your government to issue a blockade.

You have one billionaire who controls everything. Media, juice processing, milk, flour.. etc. As a result, you have 50 million beggars.
Visit Kenya and find self-made dollar millionaires in all of these sectors.

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Acha uongo wee pimbi

kichakaa man said:

Acha uongo wee pimbi

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Mbona unatusi wengine pimbi??

Livale said:

OK genius, explain your higher gdp growth rate from 2015 to date as compared to your 2004—2006 figures despite gdp having more than doubled.

If you'll not dabble around with unwarranted rhetorics, then I believe you'll have corrected yourself Pronto. But then this is a public forum, dabbling is just about the best guise to an uninformed reply as one ever gets, so help or please yourself as you dim fit.

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Actually we didn't have higher GDP growth rate in 2015 compared to 2004 - 2006.

GDP doubled from 2004 to date? No, it quadrupled.
Get your data straight, then we can have a discussion, (ahum!) dabbler!

Kobello said:

Actually we didn't have higher GDP growth rate in 2015 compared to 2004 - 2006.

GDP doubled from 2004 to date? No, it quadrupled.
Get your data straight, then we can have a discussion, (ahum!) dabbler!

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Are you just arguing to push pages on this thread or what. Below is an year, %growth, gdp sequence of the 2 sets and below them their links

2005 - 6.5% $18.1bn
2006 - 4.7% $18.3bn
...
2015 - 7.0% $45.6bn
2016 - 7.2% $46.7bn
http://kushnirs.org/economy/gdp/tz.html

United Republic of Tanzania Real GDP growth, 1980-2016 - knoema.com
Use your eyes and simple arithmetics, or use you imagination to compare the facts above and the postings you've done before you dabble a lil more

Livale said:

Are you just arguing to push pages on this thread or what. Below is an year, %growth, gdp sequence of the 2 sets and below them their links

2005 - 6.5% $18.1bn
2006 - 4.7% $18.3bn
...
2015 - 7.0% $45.6bn
2016 - 7.2% $46.7bn
http://kushnirs.org/economy/gdp/tz.html

United Republic of Tanzania Real GDP growth, 1980-2016 - knoema.com
Use your eyes and simple arithmetics, or use you imagination to compare the facts above and the postings you've done before you dabble a lil more

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2004 7.83% 12.826B$
2005 8.173% 16.93B$
2006 4.661% 18.61B$
2015 6.959% 48.197B$

Source:Tanzania | Data

Your facts are from Kushnirs (wtf?), mine are from the WB.

Jay456watt said:

ur right na nakuelewa sana ila hii ni calculator mtu yeyote anaweza tumia...kwa hiyo, if it "remains constant" which is "almost impossible' then 2038 is the minimum...najua hii itawapa watanzania wenzetu wasiwasi na kuwafanya wakose usingizi...hehe...tanzania ni kama Cain aliye msikilia ndugu yake Abel wivu na kutaka kumwibia baraka na hatimaye kumuua...hehe leteni povu sasa...the laziest people in the world....sijawahi kuona mtu anayetamani title ya mwenzake kama hawa wana darisslum......

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It can even take forever. The gap keeps widening. $88b vs $55b

Janerose mzalendo said:

Lol. How about per capita? GDP PPP doesn't matter that much
Furthermore, the gap is slight.

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GDP PPP is a more accurate measure of economic strength than GDP nominal (can be argued otherwise lakini scholars wapo who assert this).

Moderator can u clean up this thing? Here is Kenyan news section!

Data za Tanzania ni cooked data by magufulis

Wakenya hawaishi vituko aiseee...juzi hapa walikuwa wana-vote nchi itakayoongoza kiuchumi Africa kwa miaka ijayo..hahaaaaa haaaaa hizi elimu za mkoloni ni hatari kwa afya ya akili!