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AMERICA IS NOW No. 2: ITS OFFICIAL
Hang on to your hats,America.
And throw away that big, fat styrofoamfinger while you're about it.
There's no easy way to say this, so I'lljust say it: We're no longer No. 1. Today, we're No. 2. Yes, it's official. TheChinese economy just overtook the United States economy to become the largestin the world. For the first time since Ulysses S. Grant was president, Americais not the leading economic power on the planet.
It just happened - and almost nobodynoticed.
The International Monetary Fund recentlyreleased the latest numbers for the world economy. And when you measurenational economic output in "real" terms of goods and services, China will thisyear produce $17.6 trillion - compared with $17.4 trillion for the U.S.A.
Asrecently as 2000, we produced nearly three times as much as the Chinese. Toput the numbers slightly differently, China now accounts for 16.5% of theglobal economy when measured in real purchasing-power terms, compared with16.3% for the U.S. This latest economic earthquake followsthe development last year when China surpassed the U.S. for the first time interms of global trade.
Ifirst reported on this looming development over two years ago, but the momentcame sooner than I or anyone else had predicted. China's recent decision tobring gross domestic product calculations in line with international standardshas revealed activity that had previously gone uncounted.
Thesecalculations are based on a well-established and widely used economic measureknown as purchasing-power parity (or PPP), which measures the actual output asopposed to fluctuations in exchange rates. So a Starbucks venti Frappucinoserved in Beijing counts the same as a venti Frappucino served in Minneapolis,regardless of what happens to be going on among foreign-exchange traders.
PPP is the real way of comparingeconomies. It is one reported by the IMF and was, for example, the one used byMcKinsey & Co. consultants back in the 1990s when they undertook a study ofeconomic productivity on behalf of the British government.
[Get the LatestMarket Data and News with the Yahoo Finance App]
Yes, when you look at mere internationalexchange rates, the U.S. economy remains bigger than that of China, allegedlyby almost 70%. But such measures, although they are widely followed, are largelymeaningless. Does the U.S. economy really shrink if the dollar falls 10% oninternational currency markets? Does the recent plunge in the yen mean theJapanese economy is vanishing before our eyes?
Backin 2012, when I first reported on these figures, the IMF tried to challenge theimportance of PPP. I was not surprised. It is not in anyone's interest at theIMF that people in the Western world start focusing too much on the sheerextent of China's power. But the PPP data come from the IMF, not from me. Andit is noteworthy that when the IMF's official World Economic Outlook comparescountries by their share of world output, it does so using PPP.
Yes,all statistics are open to various quibbles. It is perfectly possible China'slatest numbers overstate output - or understate them. That may also be true ofU.S. GDP figures. But the IMF data are the best we have.
Make no mistake: This is a geopoliticalearthquake with a high reading on the Richter scale. Throughout history,political and military power have always depended on economic power. Britainwas the workshop of the world before she ruled the waves. And it was Britain'srelative economic decline that preceded the collapse of her power.
And it was a similar story with previoushegemonic powers such as France and Spain. Thiswill not change anything tomorrow or next week, but it will change almosteverything in the longer term. We have lived in a world dominated by the U.S.since at least 1945 and, in many ways, since the late 19th century.
And we havelived for 200 years - since the Battle of Waterloo in 1815 - in a worlddominated by two reasonably democratic, constitutional countries in GreatBritain and the U.S.A. For all their flaws, the two countries have been in thevanguard worldwide in terms of civil liberties, democratic processes andconstitutional rights.
MAISHA YA USHINDANI NI MAISHA MAZURI SANA!
jisomeeni wenyewe na copy na ku paste tu!
AMERICA IS NOW No. 2: ITS OFFICIAL
Hang on to your hats,America.
And throw away that big, fat styrofoamfinger while you're about it.
There's no easy way to say this, so I'lljust say it: We're no longer No. 1. Today, we're No. 2. Yes, it's official. TheChinese economy just overtook the United States economy to become the largestin the world. For the first time since Ulysses S. Grant was president, Americais not the leading economic power on the planet.
It just happened - and almost nobodynoticed.
The International Monetary Fund recentlyreleased the latest numbers for the world economy. And when you measurenational economic output in "real" terms of goods and services, China will thisyear produce $17.6 trillion - compared with $17.4 trillion for the U.S.A.
Asrecently as 2000, we produced nearly three times as much as the Chinese. Toput the numbers slightly differently, China now accounts for 16.5% of theglobal economy when measured in real purchasing-power terms, compared with16.3% for the U.S. This latest economic earthquake followsthe development last year when China surpassed the U.S. for the first time interms of global trade.
Ifirst reported on this looming development over two years ago, but the momentcame sooner than I or anyone else had predicted. China's recent decision tobring gross domestic product calculations in line with international standardshas revealed activity that had previously gone uncounted.
Thesecalculations are based on a well-established and widely used economic measureknown as purchasing-power parity (or PPP), which measures the actual output asopposed to fluctuations in exchange rates. So a Starbucks venti Frappucinoserved in Beijing counts the same as a venti Frappucino served in Minneapolis,regardless of what happens to be going on among foreign-exchange traders.
PPP is the real way of comparingeconomies. It is one reported by the IMF and was, for example, the one used byMcKinsey & Co. consultants back in the 1990s when they undertook a study ofeconomic productivity on behalf of the British government.
[Get the LatestMarket Data and News with the Yahoo Finance App]
Yes, when you look at mere internationalexchange rates, the U.S. economy remains bigger than that of China, allegedlyby almost 70%. But such measures, although they are widely followed, are largelymeaningless. Does the U.S. economy really shrink if the dollar falls 10% oninternational currency markets? Does the recent plunge in the yen mean theJapanese economy is vanishing before our eyes?
Backin 2012, when I first reported on these figures, the IMF tried to challenge theimportance of PPP. I was not surprised. It is not in anyone's interest at theIMF that people in the Western world start focusing too much on the sheerextent of China's power. But the PPP data come from the IMF, not from me. Andit is noteworthy that when the IMF's official World Economic Outlook comparescountries by their share of world output, it does so using PPP.
Yes,all statistics are open to various quibbles. It is perfectly possible China'slatest numbers overstate output - or understate them. That may also be true ofU.S. GDP figures. But the IMF data are the best we have.
Make no mistake: This is a geopoliticalearthquake with a high reading on the Richter scale. Throughout history,political and military power have always depended on economic power. Britainwas the workshop of the world before she ruled the waves. And it was Britain'srelative economic decline that preceded the collapse of her power.
And it was a similar story with previoushegemonic powers such as France and Spain. Thiswill not change anything tomorrow or next week, but it will change almosteverything in the longer term. We have lived in a world dominated by the U.S.since at least 1945 and, in many ways, since the late 19th century.
And we havelived for 200 years - since the Battle of Waterloo in 1815 - in a worlddominated by two reasonably democratic, constitutional countries in GreatBritain and the U.S.A. For all their flaws, the two countries have been in thevanguard worldwide in terms of civil liberties, democratic processes andconstitutional rights.
MAISHA YA USHINDANI NI MAISHA MAZURI SANA!
