Will the ongoing peace talks between the Ugandan Government and the insurgent Lords Resistance Army (LRA) survive its worst crisis to date? The talks, which began sixteen months ago, looked destined to finally bring to and end the war in Northern Uganda after twenty-one long years. However, after months of going back and forth, the Juba peace process is now faced with what looks to be the worst crisis yet.
Garamba, where the Lords Resistance Army (LRA) leadership is holed up, has fallen almost entirely silent, and the little news that is trickling out is deeply worrying. The two top rebel militants, Joseph Kony and his deputy Vincent Otti, have disagreed and a major split is feared. Otti is cut from the rest of the world and his satellite phone is now in the possession of Konys signaler, Labal Piny. Kony and Otti, both indictees of the International Criminal Court for war crimes and crimes against humanity, have led the LRA during the best and worst of times for the shadowy organisation.
Who are the LRA? The LRA is a shadowy fundamentalist outfit that has been fighting to take power in Uganda and rule the country according to the Biblical Ten Commandments. The rebels operated in the northern Uganda and from bases in southern Sudan but have now been confined to Garamba National Park. The LRA have committed numerous abuses and atrocities, including the abduction, rape, maiming, and killing of civilians, women and children. Five of its commanders have been indicted for war crimes in the International Criminal Court.
The fallout between the LRAs leaders seems to be the cause of the reported death of at least thirty rebels in an October 10 battle between Kony and Otti loyalists. Ottis fate is unknown and the rest of his loyalists are in disarray. If these reports are true, this is unprecedented even in the rebels long history of dishing out harsh treatment to members suspected of disloyalty. In the immediate aftermath of the battle the LRA lost its operations commander and third in command, Major General Opiyo Makasi, who surrendered to Congolese authorities and was due to be handed to Kampala. This is said to be a great loss to the LRA, as Makasi is believed by many to be Konys close confidante. It is claimed that his defection has seriously rattled the rebel ranks. If other reports of the escape of two senior and battle hardened commanders, Kwoyelo and Ben Acellam, turn out to be true, then the loss in the rebel ranks is immeasurable.
The more worrying impact of this crisis is the severing of communications between the rebels and the Government. The two sides have not been in touch for weeks. Colonel Ochora, who has been an important channel of communication between the rebels and the government is a frustrated man. For the last one month the Colonel has failed in his desperate attempts to talk to Otti. Kony is also not taking his calls. On October 27 Col Ochora went on air via a local FM radio in Gulu and personally appealed to Kony to explain what is going on, an appeal that has thus far been met with deafening silence from Garamba.
Kony has also snubbed the UN envoy for northern Uganda (and recent winner of the African Leadership Award) Joacqim Chissano, who he was scheduled to meet on October 22. A week into his appointment Mr Chissano lost contact with Kony. Aware of the potentially harmful effect of a breakdown in communication on the peace process, Mr Chissano attempted to meet Kony face to face. He got only as far as Maridi where he met with LRA negotiators, themselves stranded after they had failed in their own attempts to meet with their leader.
Adding to the confusion was the strange decision by Sudanese Peoples Defence Forces (SPLA) troops to detain members of the LRAs negotiating team for almost an hour when they travelled to Maridi on October 20. LRA negotiators Mr Martin Ojul and Mr Yusuf Okwonga Adek were arrested on their way to their Maridi Hotel by members of the SPLA. This left the rebel team bewildered and they are still waiting for an explanation.
If it is difficult to pinpoint the impact on the peace process of the latest crisis, it is even harder to determine what might have caused it. There is no substantive information as to what may have sparked the disagreement. One reason that has been put forward to account for the fallout is an alleged dispute over how to spend the $600,000 provided for consultations by the donor community. Others claim that a power struggle was afoot between the top two rebel leaders on how to conduct the peace process. According to the latter theory, Otti wanted the talks to be accelerated. Kony, on the other hand, was dragging his feet and began accusing his deputy of betrayal. Kony is claimed to be extremely angry over reports that his deputy had reportedly sanctioned a failed attempt to recruit of former rebels of the Uganda National Rescue Front (UNRF II) to boost the LRAs numbers in the event that the peace talks fail.
This latest fallout may, however, have unintended positive effects. There are indications that Kampala is preparing to grant the defected commander amnesty, as it did to other defectors before him. Should this be the case, it could have the effect of sending a clear message to the rebels who are still holed up with Kony that Ugandan government means business and is ready to pardon the rebels. Whether this leads to more defections or an acceleration in the peace process over the next few weeks remains to be seen.
Though this latest crisis has put a dark cloud over the future of the peace process, Dr Ruhakana Rugunda, the government's chief negotiator and minister for Internal Affairs, is confident that the process is still on course. In the last twenty years the rebels have hit rock bottom but still managed to emerge from the rubble. This latest hiccup is likely to be no exception. As the world waits word from Garamba, perhaps we should heed the advise of Ugandas internal affairs minister, that in peace talks there are always hitches and corners and it is not over if it can still be salvaged. Let us hope so, for if these peace talks fail blood will once more be spilled on the soil of Northern Uganda.
Peter Edopu, Programme Head: African Human Security Initiative 2 and Director, ISS Nairobi