Kenya shilling overvalued by 30pc, report claims

joto la jiwe said:

Soma vizuri hiyo article utaelewa vizuri, kitu kimoja kizuri umeanza nacho ni kwamba umesema wazi wazi kwamba wewe sio mchumi, kwahiyo sio vizuri kuzungumza kwa undani kama vile wewe ni mchumi.

Thamani ya pesa ya nchi inahusika sana, na ndio kigezo kinachotumika kupima GDP ya nchi, kumbuka GDP ni thamani ya jumla ya nchi ilichokizalisha katika kipindi cha mwaka nzima(Goods and services).

Kenya mwaka Jana mlisema mlizalisha "Goods and Services" vyenye thamani ya Kshs 90trl, lakini kwa ukweli ukichukua hizo "Goods and Services" mkaenda kuviuza Marekani thamani yake ni $60B, yaani Kshs 60trl tu. Yaani bidhaa ambayo Kenya inauzwa Ksh100, thamani halisi ya bidhaa hiyo ni Kshs 70 tu.

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Ni vizuri sana umesema kama tukienda kuuza bidhaa zetu marekani thamani yake itakua hivyo....... Just like tanzania ingeuza bidhaa zake marekani ingepata pesa nyingi zaidi,kama vile mnavyopata hela nyingi zaidi ya utalii....... Lakini hatuko marekani, tuko nchini mwetu na bidhaa nyingi tunajuizia na kununua wenyewe hapa hapa kulingana na inflation rate na thamani ya bidhaa ukitumia pesa za ndani.........kwahivyo Thamani ya hela haendani na kipimo cha uchumi !!!!!

Kafrican said:

Ni vizuri sana umesema kama tukienda kuuza bidhaa zetu marekani thamani yake itakua hivyo....... Just like tanzania ingeuza bidhaa zake marekani ingepata pesa nyingi zaidi,kama vile mnavyopata hela nyingi zaidi ya utalii....... Lakini hatuko marekani, tuko nchini mwetu na bidhaa nyingi tunajuizia na kununua wenyewe hapa hapa kulingana na inflation rate na thamani ya bidhaa ukitumia pesa za ndani.........kwahivyo Thamani ya hela haendani na kipimo cha uchumi !!!!!

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Dollar/ksh 2007 =78
Mkate wa boflo 2007= 30
dollar moja ingekununulia mkate miwili na nusu

Dollar/ksh 2019=100
Mkate wa boflo 2019= 50
Dollar moja inakununulia mikate miwili tu sasa, 2007 ungepata change ya 18/- ama kusema hela ya ksh sasa imewekwa juu kwa 18%
Hii ni tukiweka dhamani ya dollar ikiwa constant kutoka 2007 hadi leo(kwa hivyo kuna about 1-2% margin of error)
Kuingalia hii 18% haipo mbali sana na ile figure ya IMF 17.5% overvalued
Hii nimekufanyia wewe binafsi sababu umekiri kwamba wewe sio mwanafunzi wa somo la uchumi

joto la jiwe said:

IMF iliposema GDP ya Kenya ni $90B, wakenya walikuja hapa na kujisifia kama kawaida, sasa subiri watakavyoipinga na kuitukana IMF kutokana na hii ripoti.

Ila huu ndio ukweli halisi ya Uchumi wa Kenya, sio zaidi ya $70B. Ukiwa na akili ya kawaida huwezi kuamini kwamba, miaka minne iliyopita GDP ya Kenya nilikua $64&, kwa wastani wa kukua kwa 5% ghafla umefikia %90B.

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Lol. Hio sio ripoti ya IMF.
This is some NGO in Nairobi.

joto la jiwe said:

Tukiwaambia ninyi mnapika data huwa mnakataa, "Chicken is coming back home to be roasted". Haiwezikani nchi iwe na uchumi wa $90B lakini ishindwe hata kukarabati reli ya zamani, achilia mbali kujenga reli ya SGR. Professor Manyora alishamuomba rais Uhuru Kenyatta kuwafuta kazi Gavan wa Benk Kuu na CS wa Uchumi lakini hasikilizi, Uchumi wa Kenya upo ICU.

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Najua inakuuma sana, lakini ni $99 billion.
Tafuta figure za IMF sio kushusha data. Unamaliza kupika za Tanzania unakuja kupika za Kenya?

Mkikuyu- Akili timamu said:

Dollar/ksh 2007 =78
Mkate wa boflo 2007= 30
dollar moja ingekununulia mkate miwili na nusu

Dollar/ksh 2019=100
Mkate wa boflo 2019= 50
Dollar moja inakununulia mikate miwili tu sasa, 2007 ungepata change ya 18/- ama kusema hela ya ksh sasa imewekwa juu kwa 18%
Hii ni tukiweka dhamani ya dollar ikiwa constant kutoka 2007 hadi leo(kwa hivyo kuna about 1-2% margin of error)
Kuingalia hii 18% haipo mbali sana na ile figure ya IMF 17.5% overvalued
Hii nimekufanyia wewe binafsi sababu umekiri kwamba wewe sio mwanafunzi wa somo la uchumi

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Na mambo Tanzania yako vipi?
Your worthless shilling is approaching the same league as Venezuela.

kennedy0000 said:

Na mambo Tanzania yako vipi?
Your worthless shilling is approaching the same league as Venezuela.

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What a dollar can buy you in 2019 in Tz is the same as or slightly more that what it could buy in 2007.
As for the exchange rate, Magufuli stabalized the TZS now at 2300..No more issues and no fake dollars like kenya

Mkikuyu- Akili timamu said:

Dollar/ksh 2007 =78
Mkate wa boflo 2007= 30
dollar moja ingekununulia mkate miwili na nusu

Dollar/ksh 2019=100
Mkate wa boflo 2019= 50
Dollar moja inakununulia mikate miwili tu sasa, 2007 ungepata change ya 18/- ama kusema hela ya ksh sasa imewekwa juu kwa 18%
Hii ni tukiweka dhamani ya dollar ikiwa constant kutoka 2007 hadi leo(kwa hivyo kuna about 1-2% margin of error)
Kuingalia hii 18% haipo mbali sana na ile figure ya IMF 17.5% overvalued
Hii nimekufanyia wewe binafsi sababu umekiri kwamba wewe sio mwanafunzi wa somo la uchumi

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Wachana na ripoti za kijinga za maNGO. This is the only statistic you need to know.


2008 KRA revenue - Sh433 billion
2018 KRA revenue - Sh1.43 Trillion
(Tripled)

2008 budget - Sh867 billion
2018 budget - Sh3 Trillion
(More than tripled)

2008 GDP - $36 billion
2019 GDP - $99 billion
(Less than tripled)

If indicators show that the country's economy has tripled within that period, except the GDP, that brings me to one conclusion.
Kenya's GDP is undervalued. There is so much undocumented goods and services going on.

The true Kenyan GDP is more between $110 and $150.

Also, the shilling should be doing better than it is.

Mkikuyu- Akili timamu said:

What a dollar can buy you in 2019 in Tz is the same as or slightly more that what it could buy in 2007.
As for the exchange rate, Magufuli stabalized the TZS now at 2300..No more issues and no fake dollars like kenya

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Lol. Where are the supporting figures?
Just because an NGO in Dar has not released a report, you don't have to come here and lie.

kennedy0000 said:

Wachana na ripoti za kijinga za maNGO. This is the only statistic you need to know.


2008 KRA revenue - Sh433 billion
2018 KRA revenue - Sh1.43 Trillion
(Tripled)

2008 budget - Sh867 billion
2018 budget - Sh3 Trillion
(More than tripled)

2008 GDP - $36 billion
2019 GDP - $99 billion
(Less than tripled)

If indicators show that the country's economy has tripled within that period, except the GDP, that brings me to one conclusion.
Kenya's GDP is undervalued. There is so much undocumented goods and services going on.

The true Kenyan GDP is more between $110 and $150.

Also, the shilling should be doing better than it is.

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Well like wise The Tax collection of Tz has doubled in 3 years from 8trn TZS (2015)to 16 trn TZS(2018) and this is after firing many lazy government workers, closing mines, cutting many taxes and levies,reducing spending on luxuries and failing to add salaries..(all these are tax revenue source)
Have you seen them boast that since their revenue has doubled now their economy is double?
Stop being pedestrian

Mkikuyu- Akili timamu said:

Well like wise The Tax collection of Tz has doubled in 3 years from 8trn TZS (2015)to 16 trn TZS(2018) and this is after firing many lazy government workers, closing mines, cutting many taxes and levies,reducing spending on luxuries and failing to add salaries..(all these are tax revenue source)
Have you seen them boast that since their revenue has doubled now their economy is double?
Stop being pedestrian

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Remember Kenya has not done any of that. We have not fired lazy government workers or reduced spending on luxuries, or ended corruption in KRA etc.
If we do that, our tax collection will probably jump 5 fold overnight.

kennedy0000 said:

Lol. Where are the supporting figures?
Just because an NGO in Dar has not released a report, you don't have to come here and lie.

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Lie about what? TZ Inflation rate is lowest in EAC at 3.5% Boss the value of the dollar is directly related to inflation..kenya's economy is rigged as per IMF and possibly adulterated by Fake dollars

Mkikuyu- Akili timamu said:

Well like wise The Tax collection of Tz has doubled in 3 years from 8trn TZS (2015)to 16 trn TZS(2018) and this is after firing many lazy government workers, closing mines, cutting many taxes and levies,reducing spending on luxuries and failing to add salaries..(all these are tax revenue source)
Have you seen them boast that since their revenue has doubled now their economy is double?
Stop being pedestrian

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I should have added:

Kenya diaspora remittances 2008 - Sh117 billion
Kenya diaspora remittances 2018 - Sh274 billion

You keep wondering why the Kenyan shilling is strong, we will keep doing things.

kennedy0000 said:

Remember Kenya has not done any of that. We have not fired lazy government workers or reduced spending on luxuries, or ended corruption in KRA etc.
If we do that, our tax collection will probably jump 5 fold overnight.

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Lazy/ Ghost Government workers pay tax, luxuries also attract premium tax rates..GoT has stopped these major tax revenue generators yet managed to double the total tax.
If kenya fires or reduces the salaries of MPS and GoK workers, the revenue would half in one year

Mkikuyu- Akili timamu said:

Lie about what? TZ Inflation rate is lowest in EAC at 3.5% Boss the value of the dollar is directly related to inflation..kenya's economy is rigged as per IMF and possibly adulterated by Fake dollars

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Give us a break.

Tanzania inflation (2013 -2017) - 7.87, 6.13, 5.59, 5.7, 5.21
Kenya inflation (2013 - 2017) - 5.72, 6.88, 6.58, 6.3, 8.02

Tanzania and Kenya are in the same boat. Return that 3.5% figure to CCM kitchen.

kennedy0000 said:

I should have added:

Kenya diaspora remittances 2008 - Sh117 billion
Kenya diaspora remittances 2018 - Sh274 billion

You keep wondering why the Kenyan shilling is strong, we will keep doing things.

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Same thing
TZ remittances 2008- less than $30m
Tz remittances 2018- more than $400m
That is an increase by more than 10 times while kenya only doubled the remmitances

Mkikuyu- Akili timamu said:

Dollar/ksh 2007 =78
Mkate wa boflo 2007= 30
dollar moja ingekununulia mkate miwili na nusu

Dollar/ksh 2019=100
Mkate wa boflo 2019= 50
Dollar moja inakununulia mikate miwili tu sasa, 2007 ungepata change ya 18/- ama kusema hela ya ksh sasa imewekwa juu kwa 18%
Hii ni tukiweka dhamani ya dollar ikiwa constant kutoka 2007 hadi leo(kwa hivyo kuna about 1-2% margin of error)
Kuingalia hii 18% haipo mbali sana na ile figure ya IMF 17.5% overvalued
Hii nimekufanyia wewe binafsi sababu umekiri kwamba wewe sio mwanafunzi wa somo la uchumi

Click to expand...

At the same time ,
- Diaspora walikua wanatuma hela nyumbani less than $400 million in 2007, sahii wanatuma zaidi ya $2B
- Import wakati huo ilikua ni $10B sahii imports imefika $17B wakati exports zimebaki pale pale around $5-7Billion.
- Wakati huo huo uchumi wa marekani umeimarika kusababisha thamani ya $$$ kuongezeka dhidhi ya kila sarafu duniani ikiwemo tz.
- Alafu hatujaangalia inflation rate ya sasa compared to inflation rate ya wakati huo, pia hatujaongelea tofati ya bei ya mafuta ambayo ina affect commodity prices wakati huo na sasa....
- Umechagua ku ingore hizo variables zote ukiangalia bei ya mkate ...

Alafu Bei ya mkate inahusiana na Cost of living amabayo inahusiana na Purchasing Power which is not directly proportional to GDP nominal.... kuna nchi ziko na purchasing power kubwa na GDP nominal ndongo na nyengine ziko na PPP ndogo na GDP nominal kubwa...... na hata baada ya kua na PPP kubwa haimaanishi watu wananunua bidhaa ili kusababisha kuongezeka kwa GDP nominal.

kennedy0000 said:

Give us a break.

Tanzania inflation (2013 -2017) - 7.87, 6.13, 5.59, 5.7, 5.21
Kenya inflation (2013 - 2017) - 5.72, 6.88, 6.58, 6.3, 8.02

Tanzania and Kenya are in the same boat. Return that 3.5% figure to CCM kitchen.

List of countries by inflation rate - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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I am talking about the apparent relationship between inflation and currecy
E.g venezuela 1000000% inflation value of boliver in trillions to dollar
Same with zimbabwe etc..
A higher inflation causes a degreded currecy
As for 3.5 am not talking about the average overthose years, am talking about today
Here it is

Mkikuyu- Akili timamu said:

Same thing
TZ remittances 2008- less than $30m
Tz remittances 2018- more than $400m
That is an increase by more than 10 times while kenya only doubled the remmitances

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I'm sure you're making up figures as you go.
But you should note that a lot of that remittances is from Tanzanians in Kenya.
Kenya is your diaspora.

Kafrican said:

At the same time ,
- Diaspora walikua wanatuma hela nyumbani less than $400 million in 2007, sahii wanatuma zaidi ya $2B
- Import wakati huo ilikua ni $10B sahii imports imefika $17B wakati exports zimebaki pale pale around $5-7Billion.
- Wakati huo huo uchumi wa marekani umeimarika kusababisha thamani ya $$$ kuongezeka dhidhi ya kila sarafu duniani ikiwemo tz.
- Alafu hatujaangalia inflation rate ya sasa compared to inflation rate ya wakati huo, pia hatujaongelea tofati ya bei ya mafuta ambayo ina affect commodity prices wakati huo na sasa....
- Umechagua ku ingore hizo variables zote ukiangalia bei ya mkate ...

Alafu Bei ya mkate inahusiana na Cost of living amabayo inahusiana na Purchasing Power which is not directly proportional to GDP nominal.... kuna nchi ziko na purchasing power kubwa na GDP nominal ndongo na nyengine ziko na PPP ndogo na GDP nominal kubwa...... na hata baada ya kua na PPP kubwa haimaanishi watu wananunua bidhaa ili kusababisha kuongezeka kwa GDP nominal.

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Atleast now you understand why we economists prefere GDP (ppp) and always adjust our GDP figures to cater for inflation.
The rest is too complicated for a non economist to undertand..

Mkikuyu- Akili timamu said:

I am talking about the apparent relationship between inflation and currecy
E.g venezuela 1000000% inflation value of boliver in trillions to dollar
Same with zimbabwe etc..
A higher inflation causes a degreded currecy
As for 3.5 am not talking about the average overthose years, am talking about today
Here it is

Tanzania Inflation Rate

Inflation Rate in Tanzania remained unchanged at 3.10 percent in January. This page provides - Tanzania Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

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Tanzania and Kenya have had an almost similar inflation rate last 10 years. If that was the only thing that determines strength of a currency, then we would be in the same boat with you.

But Kenya has had more foreign exchange inflows over the same time.
Kenya has had better economic and monetary policies.

The end result is that both currencies have weakened over time, but Tanzania shilling has weakened more.