RUCCI
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- Oct 6, 2011
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As the race for President Kikwete's succession intensify within the ruling party, fresh findings show that Mr Edward Lowassa was leading by 17 per cent, followed closely by Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda with 14 per cent, according to Twaweza survey report released yesterday.
But, for the opposition parties, Dr Wilibrod Slaa was still the leading candidate, scoring 41 per cent, followed by Professor Ibrahim Lipumba with 14 per cent, Freeman Mbowe scored 11 per cent and Zitto Kabwe who got 6 per cent.
According to the findings, those who responded to the survey, identified specific individuals within the ruling party, naming Mr Lowassa (17 per cent) as their preferred presidential candidate within the ruling party, followed by Mr Pinda (14 per cent).
The survey shows that Mr Lowassa who is an MP for Monduli Constituency and former prime minister appears to have overturned the advantage that Pinda held in 2012.
These findings, according to the survey, are likely reflecting wide individual recognition, since prime ministers mostly play a key role in national affairs and the Parliament and receive regular media coverage.
But 24 per cent of those surveyed said they would vote for ‘anyone CCM picks', suggesting that the real choice will be determined by CCM's own internal processes and politics, rather than political opinion.
In a dramatic ascend; the former prime minister's political fortunes have risen from just six per cent in 2012, having managed to maintain the 13 per cent he scored in 2013.
The current Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda who, like Mr Lowassa, has made public his interest in the top leadership of the country, is the second runner up with 12 per cent. However, unlike Mr Lowassa, Mr Pinda has seen his fortunes dwindle, nose-diving from 16 per cent in 2012 and gaining just one per cent from the 11 he recorded in 2013.
Other members of the ruling CCM who have declared interest in the presidency scored as follows: Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation minister Bernard Membe (five per cent), East African Cooperation minister Samuel Sitta (four per cent) and Works minister Dr John Magufuli (three per cent).
Mr Membe's chart shows ups and downs: He started with four per cent in 2012, and then dropped halfway to two per cent in 2013, before rebounding to five this year.
If it were a marathon, Mr Sitta would have been encouraged by his trainers to keep it up on his way to the medal because he has never lost the pace, according to the Twaweza chart. In 2012 he scored two per cent, and then gained to record three per cent in 2013 and now four.
Unlike Mr Sitta, Mr Magufuli's chart shows an arrow pointing downward ever since. In 2012 he scored six per cent but descended one ladder down and recorded five per cent in 2013 and now he has settled for three. This means since 2012, the arguably ‘best performer' in President Jakaya Kikwete's cabinet and even Benjamin Mkapa's, has lost half of his presidential dreams.
In the opposition line-up, which last month signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), to field and support one candidate at all levels including the presidency in 2015 General Election, shows that CUF chairman Prof Ibrahim Lipumba trails Dr Slaa with six per cent. But unlike Dr Slaa who has seen a drop in the survey, Prof Lipuma's chart shows a ‘rise and rise'. In 2012 he scored three per cent then rose to five in 2013 before gaining one more per centage to six this year.
CHADEMA chairman Freeman Mbowe is in third position with three per cent, having maintained what he scored last year after jumping two steps up from one per cent he got in 2012.
Interestingly, the ousted former CHADEMA deputy secretary-general and Kigoma North MP Zitto Kabwe who has scored just the opposite of what Mr Mbowe posted. In 2012 he scored three per cent and maintained the same in 2013, but settled for just one per cent this year.
Source:The Citizen
http://www.thecitizen.co.tz/News/Lo...840392/2520662/-/item/1/-/eg2b6c/-/index.html