Magufuli, Museveni to lay oil pipeline foundation stone



There is a lot of oil in Kenya, very economically viable proportions of oil some true experts ( unlike that fake expert Pazii or panzi) have this to say....

Kenya may have a lot more oil than it previously thought

All tgat Kenya needs to do is to set up the production infrastructere.
 
For sure as this statement from a dry well drill by CEO of Africa oil says [emoji23] ! Be assured Tanzania will have that infrastructure before Kenya n yet we don’t have oil [emoji23] [emoji115]

OMX : AOI




July 26, 2017 02:00 ET

Africa Oil Kenya Operations Update

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - July 26, 2017) - Africa Oil Corp. ("Africa Oil", "AOC" or the "Company")(TSX:AOI)(OMX:AOI) is pleased to provide the following update on its operations in Kenya.

Kenya

Exploration and Appraisal

The exploration and appraisal campaign in Kenya has progressed to schedule in 2017 with two discoveries made. The first discovery was made in January 2017 at Erut-1, which proved that oil has migrated to the northern limit of the South Lokichar basin. The second was made in May 2017 at Emekuya-1 which encountered significant oil sands, demonstrated oil charge across a significant part of the Greater Etom structure and further de-risked the northern area of the basin.

The Etiir-1 exploration well, which targeted a large, shallow, structural closure immediately to the west of the Greater Etom structure, spudded in late June and was unsuccessful with no material reservoir development or shows encountered. Although dry, this well has helped define the westerly extent of the Greater Etom Structure.

The JV Partners also drilled the Amosing-6, Ngamia-10, and Etom-3 appraisal wells, the results of which are being incorporated into ongoing field development planning activities.

A further three wells are planned this year with drilling underway to test an undrilled fault block adjacent to the Ekales field. The Ngamia-11 appraisal well will be drilled and completed for use in an extended water flood pilot test in conjunction with the Early Oil Pilot Scheme (EOPS) and the Etete exploration well is planned to test a prospect adjacent to the Greater Etom structure. Further locations are currently under evaluation to be added to the programme.

Water injection testing on the Amosing and Ngamia fields has been successfully demonstrated and underpins the feasibility of water injection for the development of these fields.

Africa Oil Corp. has a 25% working interest in Blocks 10BB and 13T with Tullow Oil plc (50% and Operator) and Maersk Olie og Gas A/S (25%) holding the remaining interests.

Field development

In addition to the drilling and operational activities to support the Final Investment Decision ("FID") for the Kenya Full Field Development, engineering studies and contracting activities are under way in preparation for the start of the Front End Engineering Design ("FEED"), which is expected to commence in late 2017. In parallel to the upstream development work, the JV Partners and the Government of Kenya continue to progress commercial and finance studies for the proposed export pipeline, and preparations are under way for the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA).

The Early Oil Pilot Scheme ("EOPS") Agreement between the JV Partners and the Government of Kenya was signed on 14 March 2017 allowing all EOPS upstream contracts to be awarded. The first phase of the EOPS will be the evacuation of the stored crude oil, which was produced during extended well testing in 2015, to Mombasa by road. This initial phase of the project has been deferred by the Government of Kenya until after elections have taken place in early August. The EOPS production of 2,000 bopd is expected to commence around the end of the year and will now include an extended water-flood pilot test in Ngamia. Results from the Ngamia water-flood pilot will assess sustainable production levels to inform the overall resource and Full Field Development Plan.

About Africa Oil Corp.

Africa Oil Corp. is a Canadian oil and gas company with assets in Kenya and Ethiopia. The Company is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and on Nasdaq Stockholm under the symbol "AOI".

Additional Information

The information in this release is subject to the disclosure requirements of the Company under the EU Market Abuse Regulation and the Swedish Securities Market Act. This information was publicly communicated on July 26, 2017 at 2:00 a.m. Eastern Time.

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements made and information contained herein constitute "forward-looking information" (within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation). Such statements and information (together, "forward looking statements") relate to future events or the Company's future performance, business prospects or opportunities. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to estimates of reserves and or resources, future production levels, future capital expenditures and their allocation to exploration and development activities, future drilling and other exploration and development activities, ultimate recovery of reserves or resources and dates by which certain areas will be explored, developed or reach expected operating capacity, that are based on forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable and assumptions of management.

All statements other than statements of historical fact may be forward-looking statements. Statements concerning proven and probable reserves and resource estimates may also be deemed to constitute forward-looking statements and reflect conclusions that are based on certain assumptions that the reserves and resources can be economically exploited. Any statements that express or involve discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance (often, but not always, using words or phrases such as "seek", "anticipate", "plan", "continue", "estimate", "expect, "may", "will", "project", "predict", "potential", "targeting", "intend", "could", "might", "should", "believe" and similar expressions) are not statements of historical fact and may be "forward-looking statements". Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements. The Company believes that the expectations reflected in those forward-looking statements are reasonable, but no assurance can be given that these expectations will prove to be correct and such forward-looking statements should not be unduly relied upon. The Company does not intend, and does not assume any obligation, to update these forward-looking statements, except as required by applicable laws. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties relating to, among other things, changes in oil prices, results of exploration and development activities, uninsured risks, regulatory changes, defects in title, availability of materials and equipment, timeliness of government or other regulatory approvals, actual performance of facilities, availability of financing on reasonable terms, availability of third party service providers, equipment and processes relative to specifications and expectations and unanticipated environmental impacts on operations. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD

Keith C. Hill, President and CEO

Africa Oil Kenya Operations Update

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Kenya is more advanced than Tanzania in what??
 


But much of that speech speaks positively about the Kenyan oil discoveries and the future prospects.

You cant be so sure about completing that Uganda pipeline b4 Kenya winds up with hers. The future is hard to predict.

You never know the blow up that may occur and disrupt your project.
It is too early to celebrate.
 

Sababu kuu ya kudorora kwa bei ya mafuta ni vita ya kibiashara kugombania market share kati Saudi Arabia vs USA, kuboreka kwa teknologia kumeifanya shale Oil (USA) iweze kuchimbwa kwa urahisi zaidi hivyo kuongeza uzalishaji wa mafuta wa USA. Saudi anaamini na alikuwa anaitumia fimbo ya kuwa na "market share" kubwa kuwachapa wenzie, njia pekee ya kurudisha " market share" ni kutumia uwezo wake wa kuchimba kwa bei ndogo sana ukilinganisha na USA( fracturing) au Russia.

Saudi flooded the market with her cheap Oil na kweli Oil price ikashuka kutoka around 120$/ barrel hadi sasa tunaongelea around 50$/barrel. Oil surplus bado ipo kwenye soko pamoja makubaliano ya kutoongeza uzalishaji ya mwaka jana, Oil prices crises ina miaka zaidi hadi ije kurudi kawaida ( kama zamani).

25$/ barrel as a break even kwa Kenyan Oil KWA SASA ni cheap economic propaganda, hili na uhakika nalo kabisa. I have seen Middle East operation na pia Kenyan operation, nitatoa sababu zangu kadhaa chini hapa kama ifuatavyo;
1) Mosi, muda wa kuchimba kisima, hapa naunganisha rig mobilization pia. Kenya kisima kinachukua wastani wa siku 45 ( 30-60) kikiwa na urefu wa si chini ya 3000m wakati Middle East kisima kinamaliza kwa wastani wa siku 25 ( 20 - 30 ) kikiwa na wastani wa urefu wa 2000m.
Muda wa kuchimba kisima una umuhimu sababu ndio unaotoa gharama za uzalishaji kwa sehemu kubwa, kila siku inayo ongezeka ni $$$ zimeongezeka.

2) Probability ya kupata mafuta, katika kila visima vitatu unavyochimba Kenya, uwezekano ni kupata kisima kimoja tu ( 33% probability) cha mafuta wakati kwa Middle East katika kila visima 10, Tisa una uhakika una kitu (90% probability ). Hizi zote dry wells zitaongezwa kwenye gharama za uzalishaji.

3) Operation staff, Kwa project yenye ukubwa ule ule, Kenya utatumia human resources mara tatu ya idadi utakayotumia sehemu nyingine, Kule Turkan Kapese utakuta base kubwa ya Tullow ina support rig 2 tu, what a waste. Rig moja, tena land rig inakuwa supported na wafanyakazi zaidi ya 1000, hauwezi tegemea faida hapa.

4) Kenyan politics & insecurity, kuna pesa nyingi sana inatumika kwa ajili ya ulinzi na usalama, hizi zote ni sehemu za gharama za uzalishaji. Huu ugetukaji wa majimbo na wenyewe unaongeza usumbufu tu, kuna locals utalazimishwa uwape ulaji vingenevyo watafunga ops yako, kukuta geti lenu limefungwa ni zoezi la kawaida tu.

Ukiweka hayo na mengineyo mengi, gharama za uzalisha Kenya ni zaidi ya mara nne ya gharama za uzalishaji Middle East, hii ndio sababu hutaona major player kama Total, BG, StatOil au ExxonMobil Kenya. Tullow na African Oil ni vikampuni vidogo sana. Kenya hawawezi na hawatakuja kujenga bomba la mafuta kwa sasa, kinachoelendea ni siasa tu za kulazimisha Kenya iitwe Oil producing country.
 
Wengi wetu tutapita tu kimya kimya kwasababu hakuna jipya hapa, dejavu kila siku ... Project ikitangazwa mnaanzisha mada na kutukana kila mtu... Vipi ile foundation stone ya bagamoyo? Kigamboni city je?
Lile jiwe (foundation stone) la SGR project yenu limeamza kumea mizizi , tumeshawazoea nyinyi, midomo bakuli, eti waziri mzima anasema "we hope residents will show up in large numbers ..." For what!!??? Laying of a ceremonial foundation stone?? Are you serious? Alika kila mtu baada ya kujenga mradi bana, watu wakija waone kitu kikianza kufanya kazi ..
 
Hahah foundation stone ya Kigamboni wakati the project is over!

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Kwa hivyo Tanzania is more developed than Kenya ati just because u are growing by 7%? Hata kama growth rate yenu ingekuwa 20% bado hamngefika 70 bn dollars ya KE according to IMF. But even for argument sake, tuseme Kenya ingekuwa na GDP sawa na Tanzania (let's say fifty something billion dollars) bado KE tungekuwa more developed kwa sababu tuko wachache compared to T.Z and therefore we would have a higher GDP per capita. Kenya na Ethiopia tunakaribiana kiGdp Lakini tumewashinda na mbali ikifika mambo ya GDP per capita kwa sababu wako wengi. Hata mkiwa na GDP kubwa kushinda KE it does NOT necessarily follow that you will have a bigger GDP per capita than KE. Tunaweza kuwa more developed than you Hata mkiwa na GDP kubwa kutushinda especially kama mko wengi.So growth rate is not an indicator of development however GDP per capita is.
 

Okay, with all those factors mentioned, why is the Uganda's oil mining more likely to break even than Kenya's, cos Uganda is also grappling with the similar challenges as Kenya's.

Somebody claimed that it is bcos Uganda has more proven oil reserves than Kenya's, tho true, I reject that reasoning.
 
With a major player ( TOTAL) expertise na geological advantage ya Uganda, probability ya kupata mafuta Uganda ni zaidi ya Kenya plus Uganda ipo more secure bila ya siasa za ajabu ajabu kama Kenya.
 
Liwe liwalo, bomba ya Kenya iko mbioni. Hamna jinsi nyingine ya kusafirisha mafuta yetu ila kwa njia ya bomba.

Kenya haikuwa na nia ya kukwamisha huo mradi wenyu wa reli, kama suggestion yetu ambayo ilikuwa bora zaidi ya kusafirisha mafuta kwa njia ya pipeline ndio ilihujumu huo mradi wenyu, poleni sana. But niko na feeling hiyo pipeline yenyu na Uganda huenda ukasambaratika.
 
Kenya hawana uwezo wala kiburi cha kujenga bomba la mafuta with the proven reserves you have. Tullow hawana financial muscles wala uzoefu huo, hakuna mfanya biashara mwenye akili timamu atakubali kuweka pesa yake kwenye project which isn't economically viable.

Nyie endeleeni na siasa zenu za kuzalisha 2000barrels/ day na kusafirisha kwa tank ya mafuta tena kwenye barabara mbovu iliyojaa changamoto za usalama, this is the best you can kudanganya wakenya watapata petro dollars soon.
 
Lenu halitajengwa kama economics is at play. Sisi bomba na reli vyote vinajengwa tena kwa gharama nafuu...na ndo chuki na wivu wenu unatokea hapo. Subiri Museveni atasema nn juu ya matumizi ya Tanga port maana wametengewa ardhi kwa ajili ya kujenga terminal. Na kuna reli ya Musoma-Arusha-Tanga,Tanzania inajua huu mchezo. Nakuhakikishia mizigo ya Uganda tunagawana na mkilogwa mpigane 08/08 basi hata hiyo reli yenu haitajengwa.

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