Nchi inaweza kuwa ya viwanda bila kuwa na chuma?

[Red Giant]

Baada ya vita ya Korea, Korea kaskazini ikaanza kuhangaika kujenga uchumi wake. Ikagundua kuwa ili iwe na uchumi imara inahitaji viwanda. Ikagundua pia, kuwa viwanda haviwezekani bila kuwa na chuma.

Ikasema ngoja iende Japan ikanunue kinu cha kufulia chuma. Marekani aliposikia habari hiyo akamuambia mjapan, usimuuzie huyo bwana chuma. Japan akasitisha kumuuzia.

Kiongozi wa North Korea akawaita wanasayansi akawaambia nataka tubuni na kutengeneza kinu chetu wenyewe. Baada ya muda wakawa na kinu chao na wakawa wanazalisha chuma.

China wakati wa Mao nao waligundua kuwa, bila chuma hawawezi kuwa nchi ya viwanda. Wakasema, kila balozi inatakiwa kuzalisha chuma. Tunahitaji ton kadhaa za chuma kwa mwaka. Basi watu wakajenga vinu vidogovidogo kila sehemu.

Kila familia ilitakiwa kushiriki kuzalisha chuma. Watu wakayeyusha vijiko na masufuria ili kufikia lengo. Chuma kilichopatikana hakikufaa lakini inaonyesha jinsi walivyopambana kupata chuma.

Leo hii China inaongoza kwa kuzalisha steel na kununua iron ore. Walitaka wajenge reli toka huko Liganga hadi Mtwara kwaajili ya kupeleka chuma kwao.

Kwa kweli nimeona kuwa hakuna nchi inaweza kuwa ya viwanda bila kuzalisha chuma. South Africa imeendelea kiviwanda , inazalisha chuma kwa kwa wingi sana.

Huwa watu wanasema "hata sindano tunaagiza?" Lakini huwezi kutengeneza sindano kama huna chuma. Kwa maoni yangu hii sera yetu ya viwanda ilitakiwa ianze na kuzalisha chuma. Tuna chuma huko Liganga Ludewa, Chunya na milima ya Uluguru.

Wakuu nyie mnaonaje, nchi inaweza kuwa ya viwanda bila kuzalisha chuma?

 

[Kasomi]

Baada ya vita ya Korea, Korea kaskazini ikaanza kuhangaika kujenga uchumi wake. Ikagundua kuwa ili iwe na uchumi imara inahitaji viwanda. Ikagundua pia, kuwa viwanda haviwezekani bila kuwa na chuma. Ikasema ngoja iende Japan ikanunue kinu cha kufulia chuma. Marekani aliposikia habari hiyo akamuambia mjapan, usimuuzie huyo bwana chuma. Japan akasitisha kumuuzia.

Kiongozi wa North Korea akawaita wanasayansi akawaambia nataka tubuni na kutengeneza kinu chetu wenyewe. Baada ya muda wakawa na kinu chao na wakawa wanazalisha chuma.

China wakati wa Mao nao waligundua kuwa, bila chuma hawawezi kuwa nchi ya viwanda. Wakasema, kila balozi inatakiwa kuzalisha chuma. Tunahitaji ton kadhaa za chuma kwa mwaka. Basi watu wakajenga vinu vidogovidogo kila sehemu. Kila familia ilitakiwa kushiriki kuzalisha chuma. Watu wakayeyusha vijiko na masufuria ili kufikia lengo. Chuma kilichopatikana hakikufaa lakini inaonyesha jinsi walivyopambana kupata chuma. Leo hii China inaongoza kwa kuzalisha steel na kununua iron ore. Walitaka wajenge reli toka huko Liganga hadi Mtwara kwaajili ya kupeleka chuma kwao.
Kwa kweli nimeona kuwa hakuna nchi inaweza kuwa ya viwanda bila kuzalisha chuma. South Africa imeendelea kiviwanda , inazalisha chuma kwa kwa wingi sana.

Huwa watu wanasema "hata sindano tunaagiza?" Lakini huwezi kutengeneza sindano kama huna chuma. Kwa maoni yangu hii sera yetu ya viwanda ilitakiwa ianze na kuzalisha chuma. Tuna chuma huko Liganga Ludewa, Chunya na milima ya Uluguru.

Wakuu nyie mnaonaje, nchi inaweza kuwa ya viwanda bila kuzalisha chuma?

Mkuu huenda viwanda wanavyo sema wao ni Viwanda vya juice

 

[Mlenge]

What about service industry. Doesn't that count?

 

[Red Giant]

What about service industry. Doesn't that count?

Kwenye uchumi wa nchi? Ina nafasi kubwa lakini naonaga hii ni mpaka purchasing power ya watu iwe kubwa.

 

[Zakumi]

Actually you can. What you have described is an old model in which the West dominated the manufacture of machines. However, you have to remember that the technology to manufacture machines powered by fossil fuels or electricity isn't new anymore. It's readily available in countries such as China, India, Brazil, Turkey where the labor costs is very low. Now instead of thinking about building a factory from scratch with home made machines, a country like Tanzania should think how to use machines that are produced in low cost countries.

Take for example tractors. That is a very old technology and countries such as China, India, Turkey are producing low cost tractors. So in terms of business, there's no need for us to have another factory that produces another low cost tractors. We shall flood the market. Instead, we should concentrate on the improving our farming which could open other sectors of the economy which the Chinese or Indians don't have competitive advantages.

 

[Zakumi]

What about service industry. Doesn't that count?

Every sector that improve the quality of life counts. The main issue I see is we haven't changed our economic and Geography text books to address the reality of today. Majority of people still think that once you have this type of raw material, then you should be able to do this and that. The matter of the fact is technologies such as the internet and transportation have improved enormously to the point that knowing what to do with the raw material has become more important than having the material itself.

For example, iron core and coals are abundantly available in the world and the technology to extract them is much better today that it was 50 years ago. So having iron core or coals doesn't give a country a competitive advantage. If you have the need you can iron core of good quality any parts of the world and its cost won't cut your profit margin. Today the Chinese control the iron core mining business in Australia. 20 years ago that was unthinkable.

 

[Red Giant]

Japo viwanda vya kutumia chuma ni biashara ya zamani lakini bado ni muhimu na inawatoa watu. Hizo nchi ulizozitaja bado zinaendelea kufaidika na hiyo biashara. Marekani wenyewe wanaangalia jinsi gani wafufue viwanda vyao vya chuma ili waendelee kuzalisha tena. Ni ngumu kuwa nchi ya viwanda bila chuma. Hata teknolojia za hali ya juu bado zinahitaji mashine za steel.

Unaposema tununue mashine na matrekta. Zamani tulifanya kitu kama hicho. Mwanzoni kiwanda kikiwa kipya kinafanya vizuri sana. Baada ya kuanza kuchoka inaanza shida ya spare parts. Unasimama uzalishaji wiki mbili kusubiri spare parts tena za bei juu. Tumeona watu wanavyohangaika kutafuta spare parts za matrekta. Japo hii biashara ya viwanda inayotegemea chuma ni ya zamani lakini bado ni muhimu sana.

Mkuu Mlenge kagusia suala la huduma, chukulia hospitali. Unanunua vitanda vya wagonjwa toka nje kwa bei juu sana wakati ni chuma tu. Kikiharibika hata kakitu kadogo huwezi kutengeneza. Hata hizo sekta kwa kiwango fulani zinategemea chuma. Bado chuma ni muhimu sana.

Chuma pia hutoa ajira nyingi sana. Mkuu Zakumi unasema kuwa ni sawa mchina anunue madini chuma hapa kwetu, aende kwao akasafishe na kuunda matrekta na kisha aje atuuzie? Kwenye hiyo process ni ajira ngapi za wachina zinakuwa zimetengenezwa? Iron industries ni kama dini hivi, kitu cha zamani sana lakini bado ni relevant.

 

[Kichuguu]

Wazo lako ni zuri sana, ni kweli kuwa serikali ilitakiwa ifufue sera ya uzalishaji wa chuma Liganga kwa nguvu sana kabla ya kufikiria mambo mengine.

Ila nchi inaweza kabisa kuwa na viwanda bila kuzalisha chuma kwani inategemea ni aina gani ya viwanda wanavyotaka kuwa navyo. Kwa mfano nchi inayotaka viwanda vya nguo au viwanda vya kusindika matunda inahitaji iwe na kilimo cha mazao ya pamba au matunda hata bila kuwa na chuma.

 

[Red Giant]

wazo lako ni zuri sana, ni kweli kuwa serikali ilitakiwa ifufue sera ya uzalishaji wa chuma Liganga kwa nguvu sana kabla ya kufikiria mambo mengine.

Ila nchi inaweza kabisa kuwa na viwanda bila kuzalisha chuma kwani inategemea ni aina gani ya viwanda wanavyotaka kuwa navyo. Kwa mfano nchi inayotaka viwanda vya nguo au viwanda vya kusindika matunda inahitaji iwe na kilimo cha mazao ya pamba au matunda hata bila kuwa na chuma.

Mkuu hizi mashine za za kukamua matunda na hizo za kufuma nguo zote zinatengenezwa na chuma. Hapo kwenye matunda kuna presser ya chuma, storage tanks za chuma, conveyer belt ya chuma, hata kiwanda chenyewe hujengwa kwa zege za chuma na kupigwa kenchi za chuma. Hata huko shambani, shamba hulimwa kwa matrekta ya chuma, itasafiri kwenye reli ya chuma nk.

Kifupi mapinduzi ya kilimo hayawezekani bila ya chuma. Viwanda vyote vinavyotegemea kilimo vinategemea chuma sababu bila chuma hakuna kilimo cha maana. Hara power tiller ya kurahisisha kilimo au jembe lake huwezi kulipata na kulimantain kirahisi kama huna chuma cha bei rahisi. Hata kama utalima na kupalilia hayo matunda kwa jembe la mkono bado utahitaji chuma.

Mwanzoni viwanda au kilimo kinaweza kwenda vizuri kwa mashine au matrekta ya kununua toka nje, lakini gharama za spare parts zikianza kuingia ndiyo umuhimu wa kuwa na chuma unaanza kuonekana.

 

[Kichuguu]

Kama wewe ni mtengeza nguo au unasindika matunda huhitaji kutengeza mashine hizo bali unaweza kuzinunua kwingineko. Ni wale ambao wanatengeneza viwanda mechanical kama kuunda magari au kuunda mashine ndio wanaohitaji kuwa na chuma.

 

[Red Giant]

Kama wewe ni mtengeza nguo au unasindika matunda huhitaji kutengeza mashine hizo bali unaweza kuzinunua kwingineko. Ni wale ambao wanatengeneza viwanda mechanical kama kuunda magari au kuunda mashine ndio wanaohitaji kuwa na chuma.

Mkuu sikukatalii moja kwa moja, viwanda viwili vitatu kama vya dawa nk mnaweza kuviendesha bila chuma na kwa kutegemea mashine za kuagiza. ila suala la la kuwa nchi ya viwanda bila kuwa na chuma ni gumu sana na siyo endelevu.

Hapa pia niseme kitu kimoja, ili viwanda vifanikiwe vinatakiwa kutoa bidhaa bora na kwa bei ya chini. Lengo si tu kutengeneza vitu bali pia kuuza kwa faida. Sasa mwenye kiwanda cha juisi India anayetumia mashine za juisi zilizotengenezwa india. Akitumia matunda yaliyolimwa na matrekta kutoka India na yule wa Tanzania anayenunua mashine toka India yupi ana advantage sokoni?

Anayetengeneza dawa China kwa mashine za China na yule anayetengeneza Tz kwa kununua mashine China yupi anaadvantage sokoni?
Huwezi shindana na mkulima wa mpunga wa China kwenye kuuza mchele kama yeye anatumia mashine za kukoboa na umelimwa na matrekta kutoka nchini mwake na wewe unaagiza toka China. Au kama anashona nguo kwa mashine za china na wewe unaagiza na spare parts unaagiza.

 

[Zakumi]

Here's the thing. You are mixing politics and reality on the ground. Until 1986, the US was the largest car exporter of the world. Not only that, they led in the export of heavy equipment and military machinery as well. All these things need large quantity of steel. However, the competitive advantage that America enjoyed in the past has disappeared because other countries have improved their industrial capabilities. In addition, the way we manufacture things have changed considerably in the past 30 years. So when American politicians say they want to revamp the steel industry in the US, you have take their statements with a grain of salt. For ordinary voters, that is possible. However, business imperatives on the ground tell a different story. For example, other countries such as Turkey are producing high quality steel at very low costs. So why the American builder should buy American steel at higher cost when he could import it from Turkey or China?

With regard to your second paragraph, in the past we failed in every aspect of business, not only tractors and machines but everything. If you don't recall, we experienced the shortage of salts too. If you can make salts or soap, why do you think you will be able to succeeded in more advance ventures such as making tractors and machines. The reality is in the past, politics not business imperatives led us. Remember, if you want to succeeded in life, keep politics at bay.

Tanzania is blessed with a good number of raw material deposits. I have heard that we have uranium deposit in abundance. The question is why don't we have nuclear power plants? The answer could be we don't have the technology to process it. The same answer could explain why we don't have smelters to produce steel. So it isn't the question why Chinese do it and we don't. But rather, it's the question of feasibility. Is it feasible to do it now and at what cost? If we do now, can our industry sustain the competition for a long period? if we don't do know what are the alternatives?

If you are a business man or an engineer who's tasked to go through questions that are asked during feasibility study sessions, you will find out that Tanzania or any other country can have factories without having iron industries.

 

[Zakumi]

Kama wewe ni mtengeza nguo au unasindika matunda huhitaji kutengeza mashine hizo bali unaweza kuzinunua kwingineko. Ni wale ambao wanatengeneza viwanda mechanical kama kuunda magari au kuunda mashine ndio wanaohitaji kuwa na chuma.

Uwa kuna auto shows kama hile ya Detroit auto show. Ukienda kwenye hile show utakuwa makampuni yanayotengeneza parts za magari (suppliers)...Suppliers wengi wanatoka nje na wakuja na price zinazowapiku suppliers wa Marekani. Hivyo hata hayo makampuni makubwa yanafanya assembly tu siku hizi, parts zinatoka nchi mbalimbali. Hata assembly lines za magari zipo nchi mbalimbali hili kuwa karibu na consumers and kupunguza taxes. Hivyo utengenezaje wa parts za machines huko distributed na manufacturer wengi wanatumia Supply Chain systems....

 

[Red Giant]

Sawa tusichanganye siasa na ukwel na tusiweke nadharia tupu.

Unafahamu nchi yoyote ambayo imendelea kiviwanda lakini haizalishi chuma chake?

Kwanini unafikiri kuzalisha chuma Tanzania haitakuwa na manufaa kwa uchumi wetu lakini nchi nyingi kama hiyo Turkey zinazalisha kwa faida?

 

[Zakumi]

Sawa tusichanganye siasa na ukwel na tusiweke nadharia tupu.

Unafahamu nchi yoyote ambayo imendelea kiviwanda lakini haizalishi chuma chake?

Kwanini unafikiri kuzalisha chuma Tanzania haitakuwa na manufaa kwa uchumi wetu lakini nchi nyingi kama hiyo Turkey zinazalisha kwa faida?

I don't know if you versed in history. Human civilization has gone through various phase: stone age, bronze and iron age. If you look at the way the world operates right now, you could say we have already passed the iron age and we have entered into the information age. People moved from the stone age to the bronze age not because there was a shortage of stones. Not at all. They did it because bronze was better than stones. As a matter of fact, they continued to use stones more than before but not to power their economies. Likewise, we have moved from the iron age to the information age not because we have exhausted the deposit of iron, but because we discovered new technologies to power our economies. In the information age, the use of stones, bronze, and iron will continue. As a matter of fact we consume more stones, bronze and iron today than in any other period. But to power our economies, we rely on the information.

As I told in my previous posts, iron is available in abundance in many parts of the world. However, very few countries were able to take advantage of it. The main reason for that is you need other things to fall in place before you use iron as the foundation for your industrial revolution. One of those things is energy supply. If you look closely to the industrial revolutions that happened in England and North America, you will find out that the availability of coals and iron in proximity was the key. People in those parts of the world wouldn't have turned iron core into steel if there wasn't coals to do the dirty work. Do you know how much energy is needed to turn iron core into steel?

Traditionally a good number of Tanzanian tribes used to make iron tools. So the availability iron wasn't a big issue in Tanzania or for that matter in Africa. The big issue was the availability of energy that could efficiently melt iron. The only energy source that was cheaply available to us was wood which wasn't efficient and as a result we ended up making basic tools. I bet, if we have had iron and coals cheaply available in proximity, we would be talking a different story by now.

Again, iron is the key source of development. However, to turn iron into the base of your industrial revolution, you need a reliable and robust energy source. If you don't, there are other alternatives.

 

[Red Giant]

Ni kweli inadaiwa tupo information age lakini informarion kazi yake kubwa ni kusaidia uzalishaji. Hata AI ambayo inaonekana ndiyo kilele cha information age kazi yake kubwa ni kusaidia uzalishaji, mambo ya masoko nk. Uzalishaji/ viwanda bado utasimama kuwa shughuli kuu kiuchumi duniani. Nimesema hata hapo juu kuwa, japo chuma ni teknolojia ya zamani lakini bado ni relevant sana. China anataka kumpita Marekani kiuchumi kwa kutumia hizihizi traditional industries(chuma na viwanda). China anazalisha nusu ya chuma(steel) chote duniani.

Kuhusu makaa ya mawe. Hatukujua tu kuwa makaa ya mawe yanatumika kutengeneza steel lakini katika nchi yenye makaa ya mawe mengi Tanzania nayo ipo. Huko kwenye chuma cha Liganga makaa ya mawe hayapo mbali, kwenye radius ya 100 km unapata iron ore na makaa ya mawe.

 

[Zakumi]

If my geography classes serve me well, the coals in Liganga are deep underground. If they were readily available on the surface, people, even those with limited education or no form education would have taken advantage of it. The fact that even our colonial masters didn't take advantage of the coals there, we can bet that some sorts of knowledge and financial investments were require for extraction.

Now let me digress a bit. Do you know our neighbor DRC has staggering 9billion tones of coal in deposit? Do you know that the uranium that was used to built atomic bombs that ended the second world war came from DRC? Do you know that DRC has the capability power the entire Africa with electricity?

If you think the availability of steel can help the country in industrialization of some sort, please see what happened in the DRC. In 1972, the DRC build a steel mill worth 250 millions. But it didn't work. For more information please read the article below.
Maluku Steel : the Time is Now!

 

[Red Giant]

Asante kwa hiyo article nzuri sana japo imeishia kunihuzunisha.
Tuanzie hapo juu. Sifahamu kama makaa hapo yapo chini sana lakini siyo sababu ya msingi. Tuna makaa ya mawe Kiwira na yapo mengine Ruvuma, kama unaenda Mbinga. Hawa wa mbinga huwa wanasafirisha kabisa hadi Arusha. Hatuwezi kushindwa kusafirisha makaa ya mawe kutoka Kiwira au Ruvuma. Ruvuma na Ludewa zimepakana tu. Morocco huwa wanasafirisha makaa ya mawe kwa meli Kutoka SA. Hatuwezi shindwa kusafirisha km 150-200.

Kuja kwenye Article yako. Hakuna sehemu wamesema kuwa mradi ulishindwa kwa sababu hauko sawa kiuchumi bali wamesema shida ni sera za fitina za IMF, WB, Rushwa,Urasimu nk. Amelaumu kama ymewahi soma A confession of economic hit man, article imeeleza kitu kama hicho. Nchi tajiri na haya mashirika hatako tayari kukukopesha ujenge steel plant au kiwanda cha matrekta ila wanakukopesha ujenge vitu kama daraja la kupita baharini salenda.


Congo inaweza kulisha bara lote hili chuma na umeme. WaSA walitaka kuwekeza kwenye mradi wa Inga wa 40,000MW. Mara ishirini ya stiegler's lakini wote tunajua shida ya DRC.

Nitaweka hapa chini jinsi watu walivyozungumzia umuhimu wa steel kutoka kwenye hiyo article.

 

[Red Giant]

"They [ steel industries] are basically strategic industries that serve the long term industrial needs of a nation through their unique role as feeder channels to myriads of other key establishments. No serious programme of industrialization can be contemplated without a strong steel base, at least a steel base that would grow with the visualized scope of general industrialization over a set period.”

“The Steel Industry will continue to serve as stimulus to national development and economy booster to industrial development of a country. The industry will serve as the backbone of industrialization of our great country, Nigeria if all the necessary parameters are put in place. The benefits of having a functional steel industry will translate to a functional country. It should also be noted that steel industry will contribute to all the facets of the economy, including the important role steel plays in economic development and growth.”

 

[Red Giant]

Authors, Ocheri, Ajani, Daniel and Agbo; come to the conclusion that at least in the case of Nigeria, we are witness to stolen decades:

“It should be noted that the steel industry was conceptualized as far back as 1958, because of the vital and strategic role of the steel industry in the transformation and reformation of the economy. If Nigeria ever desires to drop the toga of “underdeveloped economy” for that of “industrialized economy” catalyst and economy booster the industry must be completed and made operational. If the steel industry had been completed, commissioned and effectively operated thirty-four years ago as conceptualized in the vision of the initiators, Nigeria would have been a different country in terms of industrial and economic development today.”

They further state:

“The abandonment of the company [Ajaokuta] has contributed to the economy woes of the Nation.”