DRAWING LESSONS FROM KENYAN FORTHCOMING ELECTIONS IN COMPARISON WITH TANZANIA 2020 ELECTION QUAGMIRE.
The clamour for new constitutional order in Tanzania is an outcry to end massive election rigging which was more conspicuous in the last general election.
In fact, we may confidently argue that meaningful reforms on NEC may thwart the pressure to have another peek at our constitution.
In the last general election, NEC did not count votes, disabled opposition election invigilators from ensuring the election was free, fair and verifiable and the security forces played a wanton role in election rigging!
The question we need to ask ourselves can the reengineering of the constitution end official election rigging? Regrettably, we ought to concede such efforts will neither address nor resolve such ailments! We will elaborate.
The best methodology is to assess whether Kenyan new constitutional order has arrested official rigging. We will limit our analysis to the forthcoming elections in an attempt to answer this mind gobbling question.
The IEBC equivalent to our NEC is really independent from the regime in power on fundamentally four areas.
One, all members of the commission are not arbitrarily appointed by the president but have to apply to a constitutional body that is not a product of presidential appointments. In Tanzania, the law empowers the president to appoint commissioners and the abuse of those presidential appointment powers tamp to the rim with CCM cadres is critical to the quest for a new constitutional order. The agents of social change delude themselves that a new constitution will erase these electoral injustices but the gospel truth remains it is a farfetched dream.
Secondly, there is no requirement for the chairperson of the IEBC being a judge of the High Court or the Appeals Court like in Tanzania but someone who is vested with legal skills and vast public service experience. In Tanzania, the position of the chairperson of the NEC with the High Court Judge qualifications was designed to inoculate the commission from claims of bias in favour of CCM but the experience has abundantly shown these judges are too humane and only a handful is dumb enough even to dole them out an iota of benefit of doubt. Times and times again they have behaved partisan, biased and had favoured CCM in all elections since 1995.
Thirdly, the modus operandi of the IEBC is vastly different from NEC. NEC election management powers are brutally taken away by the unconstitutional election laws which mandate it to surrender those managerial powers to an alien called local government authorities which too are presidential picks. At the height of maladministration, the immediate president of Tanzania now deceased one Magufuli is on record reprimanding the DEDs who are manage elections on behalf of the NEC. DEDs are Executive Directors running local governments on behalf of the president. The DEDs are presidential appointees. If this was not enough, Magufuli forewarned DEDs that he had appointed them to win elections for him and CCM and if they declare he has lost then they have failed on their duties. Obviously, DEDs were under duress to massively rig 2020 elections in order to keep their jobs. The IEBC modus operandi insulates from such interference from political manipulations to upend the will of the electorate.
Fourth, the role of security forces in Tanzania is shocking! They conduct unofficial meetings with DEDs with one purpose in mind to rig the opposition without incurring any consequences. No wonder opposition polling stations agents struggle to get letters of appointment from the DEDs, and even if they get them the police is there to ensure they do not get anywhere near the polling stations. Such elections are really no elections, so to shout it aloud. Moreover, it is the regional and district officers who transform themselves as returning officers to transport the election firms after they have massively overturned the will of the electorate in favour of CCM. The IEBC deploys the most recent technological tools to transport election results forms hindering interference from anybody let alone the notorious security apparatchik.
In a summary, Kenyan forthcoming elections will be free, fair and verifiable unlike Tanzanian elections which are at best ritualistic and at worst no elections but conoration of CCM overstay in power notwithstanding the electorate wishes.
Had the constitution of Kenya and the IEBC modus operandi was like in Tanzania and its NEC Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta preferred presidential aspirant Raila Amolo Odinga would have won by declaring results which have nothing to do with the voice of the electorate in the ballot box. But as we have severally projected Uhuru parochial election wishlist will be defeated for a very obvious reason he has zero control over the IEBC and the way it does its business. There are no presidential appointees like the DEDs to massively rig elections and there are no self appointed elections returning officers like the RSOs and DSOs to transport election forms after doctoring the final tallies in favour of CCM.
A new constitutional order in Tanzania is unlikely to resolve the issues raised above because the opposition diagnosis is faulty one and have failed to appreciate that they are chewing more than they can swallow. It was more efficient and effective to deal with just one issue NEC reforms from the constitution to the election laws but compounding it with the whole constitution dilutes the real problems and proffer CCM to paper over other issues while retaining ironclad control of NEC because of the illegal numbers they sway and flaunt in the Parliament and in the local governments where constitutional amendment decisions will be brewed and drunk.
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