Political Mathematics: Computing The CCM Cadres 'Party Switching' Trend

Political Mathematics: Computing The CCM Cadres 'Party Switching' Trend

N

Nietzsche

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Lots has been happening in our politics lately. Needless to say, the recent shocking trend of 'party switching' by prominent CCM politicians has dominated the media. Only a few hours ago, we heard Lawrence Masha and several other CCM figures announce that they were crossing over to the other side. Among other things, what is currently happening in our politics can be arithmetically determined by using a simple maths formula. Let me break it down this way for you:

var X = Y;
if Y = 1 * 100 then X = 100;

Essentially what this means is that not everyone who crosses over to the opposition side will be given a chance to lead; instead, the CCM cadres who 'switch parties' are critical in facilitating an easy CCM downfall without necessarily playing any role on the leadership front bench.

Think of it this way for example:

Each CCM cadre who moves to UKAWA becomes crucial by influencing their family and friends who, say, are 100 in total. So 1 cadre * 100 = 100; Now, what if 100 CCM cadres 'switch parties' in each constituency? You are going to have 100 * 100 family & friends which is equal to 10000 people. Now add up that number for the whole country.

It's like what Mos Def said, "it's all mathematics"!

Nietzsche.
 
Nietzsche

You are assuming all 100 family & friends of each defector are not independent thinkers. That they may not make different choices other than the choice taken by the defector.

What an assumption!!
 
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Kifyatu said:
You are assuming all 100 family & friends of each defector are not independent thinkers. That they may not make different choices other than the choice taken by the defector.

What an assumption!!
Click to expand...

Mkuu Kifyatu, please, relax. It's NOT an "assumption"; it's an example. And if you read between the lines you will find that, in my post, I have cited the '100 family & friends' figure you are stressing about as an example! So what you inferred to as "an assumption" is not the core subject of the premise here. Again, please try to relax and 'read between the line' instead of skimming through what I have written and subsequently spinning it as you wish, okay? Cheers.

Nietzsche.
 
Nietzsche said:
Mkuu Kifyatu, please, relax. It's NOT an "assumption"; it's an example. And if you read between the lines you will find that, in my post, I have cited the '100 family & friends' figure you are stressing about as an example! So what you inferred to as "an assumption" is not the core subject of the premise here. Again, please try to relax and 'read between the line' instead of skimming through what I have written and subsequently spinning it as you wish, okay? Cheers.

Nietzsche.
Click to expand...

I have to give it to you mkuu Nietzsche. You are such a polite guy. You have disarmed me right there. Normally, I am used to insults, ridicules, and lots of foul mouths when I join topics even remotely related to politics.

CCM top/ordinary members defecting to UKAWA is really GOD-SENT for the political maturity in this country. This shake-up will bring this country to a new equilibrium.

I am not sure of the election results come October 25 BUT one thing is certain, politics and leadership in Tanzania will never be the same again.

My prognosis is that things will be better, either way.

I am relaxed, thanks for the reminder. Relax is good.
 
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Kifyatu, before I go on any further, let me first say that you are a very smart person. The reason I mention this is because, right after replying to your comment, I was afraid that you would miss the point again, and was even tempted to edit it and elucidate even further. But even as I was getting ready to do that, I received your gracious response to my rebuttal. As a matter of fact, I was surprised that you 'got' me so promptly because, I must admit, as a programmer, my writings can be a little cryptic; sorry about that :embarrassed1:. Also, this is so ironic because I was also dreading that maybe the next reply from you was going to be an insult! And like yourself, I also abhor insults and, because of that, I was bracing myself here for it! But as it turns out, you are a brilliant person. God, I just love my country Tanzania - we have some really smart, conscious people out there these days!

Now then, back to the issue at hand: I love your prognosis! And, if you go through the forum, I think you will find that I have written several articles that show that we share the same feeling. I am actually happy with the way our politics are moving despite the fact that I myself had once pledged allegiance to the incumbent political party. I have come to realize that our country will never move forward unless the political field is levelled across the whole political spectrum and, I believe that, that is exactly what's happening right now; this is revolutionizing our citizens' frame of mind, as well as our leaders' ruling mentality so to speak, so that everyone is kept in check - and that can only be good for us as a society.

Nietzsche.
 
Nietzsche

Thank you so much for the kind words.

I hope we all presented our arguments in a civil way. We may disagree with each other BUT we don't have to be disagreeable.
 
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This fits our contest, it sound right if those who switch would be right person, with moral authority and legitimacy, most of them a looking for sympathy after they have stolen from citizens. But am Little it wondering why these citizens of a big country like this think of development in perspective of power? yes you have state power is it necessary you will have development, and what development without powerful local government, without powerful democracy, without ethics? with corruption? anyway this is not an agenda for now, is who influence who and why. But the "why question is not answered"
 
This whole party-changing drama is a mind-opener to a common mwananchi!
just like Friedrich Nietzsche dismantled God off the people's mind when he declared He Was Dead!So does CCM!
It refreshs your mind your when you see your political "role models" switch sides,why?it removes frm you the anguish of contemplating of where you should go next!you just follow!These party switchers are massacring CCM out off a common mwananchi's mind-coz they are showing a new way!
CCM IS DYING IN PEOPLE'S MINDS AT AN ALARMING RATE!
 
But Majority of people really Tanzania they are tired of waiting it's about53 year ccm and all mp have to go out.



Swissme
 
swissme said:
But Majority of people really Tanzania they are tired of waiting it's about53 year ccm and all mp have to go out.



Swissme
Click to expand...


I agree with you about our wish for a CHANGE. However, as a wise man (maybe a wise woman) once said:

BE CAREFUL OF WHAT YOU WISH FOR!
 
We're here to wash out ccm and their mp's no matter to remain with unnecessary party.
 
I am a follower of changes (for the sake of democracy) but it has to be a real change and not just changing the color of flags.
 
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