jerrytz
JF-Expert Member
- Oct 10, 2012
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A new survey has returned a harsh verdict on what could be Cord leader Raila Odinga's fourth stab at the Presidency, raising questions about whether its time for the opposition chief to get off the playing field, hang up his boots, and perhaps seek a new role as 'team manager'.
The source of this bad news, which will have Raila's advisers shaking their heads in dismay, is the latest opinion poll which projects Raila more or less as a king maker in 2017 as opposed to being the king himself. Raila has wanted to be the king for most of his life and has come so close twice.
In a surprise revelation, the poll by Ipos Synovate commissioned by the Star indicates that hardly a quarter of Kenyans would currently support another Raila attempt at the presidency, but nearly twice as many would like him to openly support someone else for the top job.
This poll raises very significant questions that Raila and ODM need to take seriously if they hope to reverse their currently dismal fortunes in 2017.
As of now, 48 per cent of respondents would vote for President Uhuru Kenyatta, 25 per cent for Raila, six per cent for Ruto, three per cent for Kalonzo, and one per cent each for Moses Wetang'ula, Peter Kenneth, Musalia Mudavadi and Abduba Dida. Seven per cent are undecided and four per cent do not know whom they would vote for, one per cent stated they will not vote while one per cent refused to respond.
These numbers raise a number of scenarios.
The first one is that if Raila fights for the nomination in ODM/Cord and loses it, he should support the winner. This could strengthen ODM/Cord's chances of winning the next election.
Although Kalonzo Musyoka has not announced his interest in seeking the Cord presidential nomination, Senator Moses Wetang'ula, the other principal in the coalition, has said he will seek to be Cord's presidential candidate in 2017. The question then is this: Is Raila willing to back either of them, and drop his own aspirations? And is either of the two really strong enough to defeat the highly disciplined Jubilee electoral machine?
The second scenario this opinion poll presents is that if Raila fights for the nomination in ODM/Cord, loses and refuses to support the winner, he may stay out of the elections, and this will definitely weaken ODM/Cord's chances of defeating Uhuru.
Alternatively, there could be the scenario wherein he does not get the ODM/cord ticket, and decides to form or join a new party, which may makes him its presidential candidate. His defection will clearly diminish the chances of Cord defeating Jubilee. These probabilities would be minimised if Raila loses and decides to support a candidate in another party.
The third and final scenario presented by these polls is that if Raila fights for the nomination in ODM/Cord and wins, he would then need to ensure that ODM/Cord stays united behind him, which would greatly enhance his chances of winning.
However, if ODM/Cord splits with one or more of his internal rivals contesting the Presidency through other parties, it means his chances would be weakened greatly.
Raila, Wetang'ula and Kalonzo are all currently fighting rebellion in their own parties and from the survey there is clear need for urgency in resolving this conflicts. It is also paramount that the coalitions prepares and undertakes free and fair primaries to dramatically reduce cases of disgruntled supporters walking away.
This results also raise the critical question of just how much of Raila's core support remains intact for his 2017 presidential bid? Of particular interest are the findings revealed in this pie chart:
PIE CHART #1:
If taken as a "message from the grassroots", this data suggests that the days when Raila could summon millions to turn up to vote for him, are effectively over, and that the only role he can hope to play is that of king-maker. There is a clear plurality of 61% opposed to his candidature, and only 23% remain steadfast that he should once again offer himself for the ultimate prize in Kenyan politics.
However, Raila is no amateur. He has a long and formidable history of turning the tables on his political rivals, often at the very moment that he seemed to be in a tight corner.
In any case, its all very well for so many people to feel that Raila should not run at all for president. What is notable is that there is no national consensus among those who hold this view, as to who should inherit Raila's huge electoral assets. This graph based on the Ipsos survey reveals as much:
GRAPH #27:
A possible scenario here, is that the opposition may yet find itself turning to Raila as a compromise candidate, in absence of any clear indication from the grassroots as to who should replace him at the top of the Cord ticket:
"There is no clear successor to Raila within Cord," said Victor Rateng, the Project Manager of Opinion Polls at Ipsos
Interestingly the biggest beneficiary of Raila's loss is Uhuru who has been able to take 14 percent of Raila's support from the last election.
Uhuru has been engaged in a charm offensive and has used the ICC issue once again to endear himself those Kenyans who see the continuing cases at The Hague as a distraction to more urgent national priorities.
In general, Uhuru seems to have mastered the art of projecting a presidential image. He has taken to personally handing over title deeds to landless people at the Coast; he also temporarily - and with great ceremony - handed over power to his Deputy William Ruto when he went to ICC last month. Uhuru has also been wearing military gear as Commander in Chief; he has visited the White House and met President Barack Obama; his wife Margaret has been running the Beyond-Zero campaign where she has donated mobile clinics in various counties; and the Head of State has even hosted the Kenya Premier league champions Gor Mahia in State House in a move that surprised many, since the club is associated in many minds with Raila's core supporters within the Luo community.
While some of this things are publicity stunts, they seams to have worked for Uhuru in the last eighteen months. He is winning over Cord supporters while the opposition continues to wobble.
Take for example the disruption of the ODM elections by the "Men in Black" and the failure by the party to convene fresh elections for the last nine months has seen some ODM members openly criticize the party leader and in some cases showing open defianc.
The ground that Raila had recovered when he returned from the US with the #BabaWhileYouWereAway campaign and which saw thousands of his supporters turn up in large numbers to welcome him back home, began to dissipate when on July 7th he announced the birth of the Okoa Kenya referendum campaign.
Another reason why Raila and ODM have been losing support is because of the way in which party discipline issues have been handled. That was made worse by the humiliating public ejection of ODM Executive Director Magerer Lagat, from an event at which Raila was present; and the relentless and powerful attacks against Raila in the media by Miguna Miguna's, his former key adviser, who writes and speaks with a wealth of knowledge, given his former status as an insider. There are also widespread accusations of "Jubilee moles" among the Cord faithful.
Raila's dwindling fortunes are further exemplified by the current revelations about the undecided voters who backed him in the last general election. The poll showed that of the 7 per cent of undecided voters across the country, 44 per cent voted for Raila while only 21 per cent voted for Uhuru.
Western, a perceived stronghold of the Cord Chief tops the regions that wants him to support someone else at 54 per cent followed by Nairobi at 49 per cent and then Rift Valley at 45 per cent.
Other areas that want Raila to back someone else are: Central (34%), Coast (31%), Eastern (40%), North Eastern (20%) and Nyanza at (35%).
"What the this finding tell is is that Moses Wetunga has gained by association with Raila and as long as he continues to be a member of the cord coalition he may be able to eat into ODM numbers in the region. If I were Raila or Kalonzo, I would be worried because Wetangula's game plan is to eat into Raila's ODM support in Western Kenya then come to the negotiating table and out muscle Kalonzo and am-twist Raila to support him. If he does not get his way Wetangula could take his support elsewhere, dealing cord a big blow," said Aggrey Oriwo, IPSOS managing Director.
allAfrica.com: Kenya: Raila's Dreams of Presidency Dealt Staggering Blow By Latest Polls
The source of this bad news, which will have Raila's advisers shaking their heads in dismay, is the latest opinion poll which projects Raila more or less as a king maker in 2017 as opposed to being the king himself. Raila has wanted to be the king for most of his life and has come so close twice.
In a surprise revelation, the poll by Ipos Synovate commissioned by the Star indicates that hardly a quarter of Kenyans would currently support another Raila attempt at the presidency, but nearly twice as many would like him to openly support someone else for the top job.
This poll raises very significant questions that Raila and ODM need to take seriously if they hope to reverse their currently dismal fortunes in 2017.
As of now, 48 per cent of respondents would vote for President Uhuru Kenyatta, 25 per cent for Raila, six per cent for Ruto, three per cent for Kalonzo, and one per cent each for Moses Wetang'ula, Peter Kenneth, Musalia Mudavadi and Abduba Dida. Seven per cent are undecided and four per cent do not know whom they would vote for, one per cent stated they will not vote while one per cent refused to respond.
These numbers raise a number of scenarios.
The first one is that if Raila fights for the nomination in ODM/Cord and loses it, he should support the winner. This could strengthen ODM/Cord's chances of winning the next election.
Although Kalonzo Musyoka has not announced his interest in seeking the Cord presidential nomination, Senator Moses Wetang'ula, the other principal in the coalition, has said he will seek to be Cord's presidential candidate in 2017. The question then is this: Is Raila willing to back either of them, and drop his own aspirations? And is either of the two really strong enough to defeat the highly disciplined Jubilee electoral machine?
The second scenario this opinion poll presents is that if Raila fights for the nomination in ODM/Cord, loses and refuses to support the winner, he may stay out of the elections, and this will definitely weaken ODM/Cord's chances of defeating Uhuru.
Alternatively, there could be the scenario wherein he does not get the ODM/cord ticket, and decides to form or join a new party, which may makes him its presidential candidate. His defection will clearly diminish the chances of Cord defeating Jubilee. These probabilities would be minimised if Raila loses and decides to support a candidate in another party.
The third and final scenario presented by these polls is that if Raila fights for the nomination in ODM/Cord and wins, he would then need to ensure that ODM/Cord stays united behind him, which would greatly enhance his chances of winning.
However, if ODM/Cord splits with one or more of his internal rivals contesting the Presidency through other parties, it means his chances would be weakened greatly.
Raila, Wetang'ula and Kalonzo are all currently fighting rebellion in their own parties and from the survey there is clear need for urgency in resolving this conflicts. It is also paramount that the coalitions prepares and undertakes free and fair primaries to dramatically reduce cases of disgruntled supporters walking away.
This results also raise the critical question of just how much of Raila's core support remains intact for his 2017 presidential bid? Of particular interest are the findings revealed in this pie chart:
PIE CHART #1:
If taken as a "message from the grassroots", this data suggests that the days when Raila could summon millions to turn up to vote for him, are effectively over, and that the only role he can hope to play is that of king-maker. There is a clear plurality of 61% opposed to his candidature, and only 23% remain steadfast that he should once again offer himself for the ultimate prize in Kenyan politics.
However, Raila is no amateur. He has a long and formidable history of turning the tables on his political rivals, often at the very moment that he seemed to be in a tight corner.
In any case, its all very well for so many people to feel that Raila should not run at all for president. What is notable is that there is no national consensus among those who hold this view, as to who should inherit Raila's huge electoral assets. This graph based on the Ipsos survey reveals as much:
GRAPH #27:
A possible scenario here, is that the opposition may yet find itself turning to Raila as a compromise candidate, in absence of any clear indication from the grassroots as to who should replace him at the top of the Cord ticket:
"There is no clear successor to Raila within Cord," said Victor Rateng, the Project Manager of Opinion Polls at Ipsos
Interestingly the biggest beneficiary of Raila's loss is Uhuru who has been able to take 14 percent of Raila's support from the last election.
Uhuru has been engaged in a charm offensive and has used the ICC issue once again to endear himself those Kenyans who see the continuing cases at The Hague as a distraction to more urgent national priorities.
In general, Uhuru seems to have mastered the art of projecting a presidential image. He has taken to personally handing over title deeds to landless people at the Coast; he also temporarily - and with great ceremony - handed over power to his Deputy William Ruto when he went to ICC last month. Uhuru has also been wearing military gear as Commander in Chief; he has visited the White House and met President Barack Obama; his wife Margaret has been running the Beyond-Zero campaign where she has donated mobile clinics in various counties; and the Head of State has even hosted the Kenya Premier league champions Gor Mahia in State House in a move that surprised many, since the club is associated in many minds with Raila's core supporters within the Luo community.
While some of this things are publicity stunts, they seams to have worked for Uhuru in the last eighteen months. He is winning over Cord supporters while the opposition continues to wobble.
Take for example the disruption of the ODM elections by the "Men in Black" and the failure by the party to convene fresh elections for the last nine months has seen some ODM members openly criticize the party leader and in some cases showing open defianc.
The ground that Raila had recovered when he returned from the US with the #BabaWhileYouWereAway campaign and which saw thousands of his supporters turn up in large numbers to welcome him back home, began to dissipate when on July 7th he announced the birth of the Okoa Kenya referendum campaign.
Another reason why Raila and ODM have been losing support is because of the way in which party discipline issues have been handled. That was made worse by the humiliating public ejection of ODM Executive Director Magerer Lagat, from an event at which Raila was present; and the relentless and powerful attacks against Raila in the media by Miguna Miguna's, his former key adviser, who writes and speaks with a wealth of knowledge, given his former status as an insider. There are also widespread accusations of "Jubilee moles" among the Cord faithful.
Raila's dwindling fortunes are further exemplified by the current revelations about the undecided voters who backed him in the last general election. The poll showed that of the 7 per cent of undecided voters across the country, 44 per cent voted for Raila while only 21 per cent voted for Uhuru.
Western, a perceived stronghold of the Cord Chief tops the regions that wants him to support someone else at 54 per cent followed by Nairobi at 49 per cent and then Rift Valley at 45 per cent.
Other areas that want Raila to back someone else are: Central (34%), Coast (31%), Eastern (40%), North Eastern (20%) and Nyanza at (35%).
"What the this finding tell is is that Moses Wetunga has gained by association with Raila and as long as he continues to be a member of the cord coalition he may be able to eat into ODM numbers in the region. If I were Raila or Kalonzo, I would be worried because Wetangula's game plan is to eat into Raila's ODM support in Western Kenya then come to the negotiating table and out muscle Kalonzo and am-twist Raila to support him. If he does not get his way Wetangula could take his support elsewhere, dealing cord a big blow," said Aggrey Oriwo, IPSOS managing Director.
allAfrica.com: Kenya: Raila's Dreams of Presidency Dealt Staggering Blow By Latest Polls