msemakweli
JF-Expert Member
- Feb 20, 2014
- 1,627
- 880
Last month 33 members of Tanzania's opposition were arrested at an allegedly illegal rallyin Dar es Salaam. In an email interview, Michael Jennings, senior lecturer in the department of development studies at the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London, discussed domestic politics in Tanzania.
WPR: What is at stake in April's constitutional referendum, and what is public opinion of the proposed new constitution?
Michael Jennings: The key political debate has been over the structural form of the Tanzanian government. Opposition parties have been pushing for a more federalized structure, which would reduce the power of the federal government and president, while the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM or Party of Revolution) has used its power to ensure the draft constitution largely preserves the status quo.
On one level, then, the campaign is about different visions for Tanzania's governing institutions. However, it is also a test of CCM's popularity, with the "no" campaign likely to focus on using the referendum to bloody the nose of the ruling party.
On Zanzibar, efforts to maintain the status quo are seen as an attempt to maintain CCM and mainland dominance over the islands, and some opposition figures in the Civic United Front (CUF) and more radical fringes in the separatist campaign will seek to use the referendum campaign to push for greater autonomy for Zanzibar, if not outright independence.
WPR: How unified is the opposition in Tanzania, and how much of a political challenge do they pose to the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi party?
Jennings: Opposition parties in Tanzania have historically been internally divided and built around individuals unwilling to subsume their own ambitions to forge a common platform with other opposition leaders.
It is unlikely, however, that any coalition would have successfully secured a victory against a still largely popular CCM. But Chadema and CUF in particular have proven quite effective as opposition parties, and, in the case of CUF, as part of the Government of National Unity on Zanzibar.
There is renewed talk of an opposition coalition standing against CCM in October. Yet the same problem remains: Who will take on the mantle of leadership and, more importantly, who will stand aside? Prospects are perhaps better for such a coalition than in the past, but with Chadema having recently engaged in internecine feuding, and rumblings against CUF leadership from increasingly disillusioned members, there is a long way to go before one would bet on a successful coalition emerging.
WPR: How are the current political infighting and the referendum likely to affect October's presidential election?
Jennings: CCM is also internally divided between two factions battling it out for the succession to President Jakaya Kikwete, who must step down after his two constitutionally limited terms of office.
However, CCM has been here before and still emerged as the country's dominant political force. It remains broadly popular (if decreasingly so), especially in rural areas, and most are predicting a CCM victory in October, no matter the result of the referendum. However, a strong performance in the referendum campaign could boost opposition chances of denting CCM's dominance.
WPR: What is at stake in April's constitutional referendum, and what is public opinion of the proposed new constitution?
Michael Jennings: The key political debate has been over the structural form of the Tanzanian government. Opposition parties have been pushing for a more federalized structure, which would reduce the power of the federal government and president, while the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM or Party of Revolution) has used its power to ensure the draft constitution largely preserves the status quo.
On one level, then, the campaign is about different visions for Tanzania's governing institutions. However, it is also a test of CCM's popularity, with the "no" campaign likely to focus on using the referendum to bloody the nose of the ruling party.
On Zanzibar, efforts to maintain the status quo are seen as an attempt to maintain CCM and mainland dominance over the islands, and some opposition figures in the Civic United Front (CUF) and more radical fringes in the separatist campaign will seek to use the referendum campaign to push for greater autonomy for Zanzibar, if not outright independence.
WPR: How unified is the opposition in Tanzania, and how much of a political challenge do they pose to the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi party?
Jennings: Opposition parties in Tanzania have historically been internally divided and built around individuals unwilling to subsume their own ambitions to forge a common platform with other opposition leaders.
It is unlikely, however, that any coalition would have successfully secured a victory against a still largely popular CCM. But Chadema and CUF in particular have proven quite effective as opposition parties, and, in the case of CUF, as part of the Government of National Unity on Zanzibar.
There is renewed talk of an opposition coalition standing against CCM in October. Yet the same problem remains: Who will take on the mantle of leadership and, more importantly, who will stand aside? Prospects are perhaps better for such a coalition than in the past, but with Chadema having recently engaged in internecine feuding, and rumblings against CUF leadership from increasingly disillusioned members, there is a long way to go before one would bet on a successful coalition emerging.
WPR: How are the current political infighting and the referendum likely to affect October's presidential election?
Jennings: CCM is also internally divided between two factions battling it out for the succession to President Jakaya Kikwete, who must step down after his two constitutionally limited terms of office.
However, CCM has been here before and still emerged as the country's dominant political force. It remains broadly popular (if decreasingly so), especially in rural areas, and most are predicting a CCM victory in October, no matter the result of the referendum. However, a strong performance in the referendum campaign could boost opposition chances of denting CCM's dominance.
