Sonko nominates Miguna Miguna as deputy governor-Nairobi....Afro cinema continues

OF SONKO AND THE GRANDMASTER

Mike Sonko is caught between a rock and a hard place. Literally. He fashioned himself as a people's fighter. He did more as MP and Senator for the people than many government institutions. Sonko rescue team and his philanthropic gestures like the adoption of baby Satrin and all his goodwill suppressed his reputation as a rogue. It sanitised him. Many had always thought of him as a drug baron and a ruffian, but none of that was authenticated. Sonko did everything and worked very hard to rise above the hate. He delivered Jubilee almost a million votes single handedly.

However, to be Governor, Sonko was going to face his toughest challenge yet. Sonko was trying to be Governor in a city that had 'wenyewe'. And Sonko was not a 'mwenyeji'. Of course he had the youth. He had the masses in the slums and informal settlements. He had the matatu operators and he had the dingy clubs and bars... On face value, he had what it took to run a good ground campaign and deliver votes. In 2013, Sonko was so popular that his votes for the nairobi senate surpassed that of all presidential candidates other than the indefatigable Raila and the President, who won that round . Yes. Sonko was that guy.

But as he fought Kidero, he forgot one thing. Kidero wasn't an ODM Governor, Kidero was part of the Nairobi Owners club. I recall during the early periods of Kidero's governorship when even members of his party were not sure where his loyalty lay. You see, Kidero is one of East Africa's richest business men. You can tell from his new acquisitions, Loita House , his new building that decorates the Nairobi skyline with artistic Architecture, Prism Tower etc. The Nairobi Cartels were comfortable with Kidero because he was in the money club, an area Sonko may never get to anytime soon. Sonko is a millionaire no doubt, but he has a long way to go before he gets to ultimate money, which means, power.

Sonko bit more than he could chew. And he only knew that while he campaigned for the Nairobi Gubernatorial seat. His ground work for five years, was being put to test. He had successfully made it to MP and successfully made it to the Senate. But parliamentary offices are not really "threatening" to big money. Executive offices are critical. Executive offices is where money is traded and decisions made. This is where tenders and contracts are signed. This is where billionaires are manufactured.

Nairobi is the capital metropolis for East Africa. The economic powerhouse of the region and the seat of regional power brokerage and business. The city CEO would therefore manage collosal budgets and be a force to reckon with regionally. It's the city that houses State House and all decisive Government and military headquarters. The home of the Supreme Court and Parliament.

Sonko was gunning to run this city. With its complexity of factors.

Evans Kidero didn't fail to manage Nairobi. He succeeded in managing the expectations of factions that run Nairobi. There's always a thin line between management of resources, and management of expectations. The voters expectations, and the expectations of the money clique are night and day.

The mandarins of power were comfortable with Kidero, however, he wasn't their own. He belonged to Odinga's party. Money knows no tribe, it only knows alliances. Kidero didn't lose favour because he was Luo, he lost because his loyalty was in question. But he needed Odinga, because the Ultimate ground voter, tends to vote along tribal lines, and Odinga's party guaranteed him ground support. A small matter that made the 'silent' mandarins uncomfortable.

But were they comfortable with Sonko? Jubilee's most virulent and effective mobiliser? The only politician Jubilee had that could match Raila's euphoric support in the city and Joho's flamboyance?

No. Though he could do all that, they weren't comfortable with his erratic politics. They couldn't bank on him to stay loyal and to respect the old order. Plus, Jubilee is big about image. And they spend billions doing PR and making their government seem likeable. Sonko was a hard sell to corporate Nairobi.

Enter Maina Kamanda and his rhetoric that they wouldn't give Sonko the seat. Nairobi inawenyewe they threatened. The cartels were worried, how would an erratic, and equally brutal Sonko accommodate them? Tricky sana.

Enter Peter Kenneth. And Mike Sonko was doomed. Peter Kenneth was likeable, a better sell to the corporate society, and a probable 2022 upset candidate.

What saved Mike Sonko was the 2022 elections.

State House openly preferred Peter Kenneth to Sonko because they could package him, plus, Peter Kenneth was made rich by Moi's regime. His close friendship particularly with Hon Sally Kosgei made him a multi millionaire. The mandarins were comfortable with this one. He could cut deals and look good for the city at the same time .

Then Ruto happened.

He wasn't going to let that nonsense fly. His 2022 prospects were actively being jeorpadized with this Sonko-Kenneth issue. Plus, he knows Peter Kenneth from the times of Moi. Peter Kenneth is soft on the surface, but sly and swift beneath. All Peter Kenneth needed was a chance to sell himself to Kenyans and he would have been a threat in 2022. If not for anything, for splitting the Jubilee votes.

William Ruto decided he was going to make Nairobi his business. And he did. In a meeting at kapkatet in Kericho, Ruto lectured the kalenjin about coming to take over Nairobi. He was mad because, with the economic power of the kalenjin, yet 90% of it is vested in the Rift Valley, he wanted them to come to Nairobi to compete with the Kikuyu. He also said he was rearranging Nairobi and he would start with ensuring we had one Kalenjin MP, specifically in Lang'ata in 2017 and five more in 2022. He succeeded in the 2017 plan. Nickson Korir came in. Surprisingly, with a lot of ground support.

Ruto knew Kiambu was in proximity to Nairobi, he needed to manage that too. Main reason was the spill over effect of political gerrymandering. Kajiado, which is adjacent to Nairobi and the first Rift Valley county neighboring the capital city, was safely in Jubilee...URP Jubilee. To be precise. You see, during the 2013 pact, though Jubilee was a merger of TNA and URP... The unwritten rule demanded by Ruto was that no TNA candidate would vie for gubernatorial seats in the great Rift other than Nakuru, which by default, must have a URP Deputy Governor for the lifetime of Uhuru's presidency. URP also ensured it controlled all North Eastern counties and parliamentary seats. Duale and Haji are Jubilee URP. He also ensured the new coast converts to Jubilee were all allied to the URP wing of Jubilee. Mvurya and Mung'aro etc. Seeing Moha Jichopevu ally to him recently gies to show, Ruto's scheme to tame and own all national seats away from Central Kenya was working. He is in the insurance sector. He knows how to assess Risk, and he simply decided to invest in votes away from Central, just incase. All western Kenya Jubilee converts like the speaker of the senate, Ababu Namwamba, and the rest, all owe their foray into Jubilee via Ruto. Ruto is playing the long game. He is a lethal schemer.

After the botched Jubilee nominations in 2017, Ruto personally went to Jubilee HQ and run the show. He decided who became nominated in Jubilee areas nationally. Be it central Kenya, Rift Valley or Coast. Where he saw a candidate was popular on the ground against his preference, he went with the masses. Smart guy.

Back to Sonko. Sonko had been denied his nomination. Ruto literally handed to him. Jaguar had been denied his too. Ruto protected him and sorted him out. He also sorted out KJ . He was aligning with the Kikuyu hustler who he knew, in 2022, would be his base because, we all know Kikuyu is divided into economic classes. The wealthy class versus the hoi poloi.

The wenyewe crew decided to prop up Igathe to safeguard their interests in Nairobi. However, Ruto's intelligence working closely with Sonko knew what was going on. Sonko got his confidence to interrupt the schemes. Ruto assured him of executive protection. Sonko ran Igathe out of the seat... Literally. Sonko allegiance was sealed during the Jubilee nominations. One thing about Sonko is that he's not a sell out. He is loyal. He stuck to the plan.

Kabogo on the other hand was punished during the nominations by Ruto for not knowing who the new boss was. Ruto doesn't take well for disrespect.

I always argue, never underestimate someone who stays up until the dead of the night drawing plans, and doesn't drink. That's a lethal chess grandmaster.

Now, to throw a spanner into the works, Sonko has been advised to nominate Miguna as deputy governor. One, to deflect attention from MCAs who were threatening court action, buys Sonko time... as they argue about his nationality.... Or two, if Miguna accepts, he enters the anti-Odinga Uhuru Gideon brigade and trust me, Miguna is just a hustler like them. He accepts currency in dollars and Kenya shillings.... Kibaki bought him to release his anti Odinga book... Peeling Back the Mask. Ruto is outspending even Gideon and Uhuru. Odinga is stingy with his billions, however, Ruto is a student of Moi, if you can't kill the voice, buy the mind.

Mike Sonko, is caught between a rock and a hard place. As long as 2022 elections is a key conversational point, Nairobi will continue to have poor drainage and bad roads. Not because Sonko has failed, but because, there are forces larger than our infrastrucural needs currently at play... Sonko's mandate is different from his job description.

For the time being, buy Land Cruisers and Rav 4s to manage the potholes. The governor is engaged elsewhere right now. Line is busy. Sorry for the inconvenience.
 
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