Rutashubanyuma
JF-Expert Member
- Sep 24, 2010
- 219,468
- 911,184
The new ccm cc team that JK has unveiled yesterday is pregnant with intentions of where JK hankers to take the nation to. For beginners, since we gained our independence in 1961 no president has ever assailed to the top seat without being a member of the ruling party top hierarchy and that is the central committee.
Without undermining the spirit of a new constitution which is still unborn baby, I do expect that this trend of grooming top leaders within a political party will screech to halt after 2015 as there is almost a consensus that most of the societal ills we are imbibed in today are a result of corrupting government positions with party ones. Hence a vigorous quest to separate the two positions has been gaining currency across the political divide.
Knowing a future president will come from ccm cc therefore there is a need to decipher what JK has in mind and here is my personal assessment of the scenarios that are quietly unfolding:-
While JK like any other homo sapien may prefer to promote one of his surrogates, but he understands that the party is bigger than him, and without it, his legacy is but a few ashes on our political terrain. Hence, JK will do anything in his power to ensure a smooth transfer of power to someone within the cc he has just inaugurated.
HOW WILL JK PLAY HIS GAME OF POLITICAL CHASE?
The past conduct of JK on similar matters is an arena where we may glean some of his strategic thoughts on the matter at hand.
a) Learn something from election banner " Ari mpya, nguvu mpya na kasi mpya."
Most of us have forgotten what that inspiring electoral banner entailed, but JK's presidential career has been defined by that electoral mantra: a burning and yet an insatiable ambition to be a totally different president from his predecessors and possibly his successors........someone who tried to make a difference in our lives and who had also attempted to change political culture in our nation, though with mixed results!
b) But how has JK fared, so far?
i) Do not look far than in the area of appointments because that is where you can discern his zones of "comfortability". It is an area where he has a leeway to surround himself with personalities he cherishes deep in his heart: People who reflects his ideals and share his value systems..for whatever that means.
ii) The appointment of two women; namely, Asha Rose Migiro and Zakhia Hamdani Meghji to head for the first time in our inchoate history the ministries of Foreign affairs and Finance respectively are a case study in hand.
c) What did JK accomplished?
In a twinkling of an eye, JK became the first president in our history to garland our political landscape with women empowerment in such sensitive posts, not even the saintly Nyerere had the visionary leadership to do the same! It had to be JK who did this and I would add JK promoted those women partly because he had his gimlet eyes firmly transfixed on his legacy. JK wanted to be different from his predecessors; although history will also note, that he was more amenable to promote those women who share his spiritual beliefs! Something that is not within the orbit of this analysis, though.
d) What about Speaker Anne Makinda's promotion?
Those who refuse to give JK credit on promotion of women rights are quick to pull the rag behind those who applaud JK on the duo appointment in the cabinet for Migiro and Meghji that the elevation of Makinda was mere accidental and in many ways was to fix an incumbent speaker -read Samuel Sitta- who was considered overambitious and who was abusing his position at the Augusta House to promote his personal political futuristic stakes in the party and the nation at large!
e) Was Samuel Sitta demoted for the sake of empowering women?
My crystal ball informs me that Sitta was punished for his political tantrums and Makinda was a mere coincidental beneficiary of the mayhem that led to the former's downfall. And I may add, so long as JK is in power Sitta will never rise beyond his hitherto portfolio, and nothing else. JK does not trust him and he treats him with kid gloves.
f) Then what is JK's trump card again in this succession battle?
JK will do all that is in his sphere of influence to dissuade mainland men -remember the UMOJA WA VIJANA WA CCM chairmanship election fiasco?- from running for the presidency with one exception of Dr. Ahmed Salim because he is from marginalized Pemba and it will be very difficult to convince CCM Isles that the ccm cc presidential proposals will be without one of their own and there is no female there who has the profound acceptability of carrying the Isles flag to their satisfaction beyond being labeled a cheerleader: Dr Maua Daftari.
Although CC CCM will make all the attempts to show the road to State house is wide and open to all but surreptitious efforts will be initiated to promote three mainland women and one man and a woman from Zanzibar to carry the ccm presidential flag.
In UVCCM chairmanship election fiasco, JK parlayed mainland office seekers as powermongers and CC slashed their names with lightning speed and a cunning Zanzibari, though now a confirmed forgerer- went on almost unopposed to clinch that position!
Similar heartwrenching antics await mainlanders notorious for powermongering.
g) Who are these four women and one man?
Maybe the real question be why the figure of five from ccm cc and not any other number? CC CCM from the multiparty elections of 1995 to 2010 have preferred an odd number of five and the national council through secret ballot truncates the number to three and the national convention gathering picks one from those three.
I see no indication, so far, that that political culture will change come 2015 for a simple reason where a presidential primary election that involves all members of the party is the most desirable way to go but JK feels that he may lose control and those "Mr. money bags" will outwit him knowing rank and file ccm members are very venal and may vote to the highest bidder! So lack of trusting the rank and file of ccm, drives JK not to reform ccm constitution to permit presidential primaries picking ccm presidential flag bearer because he will lose his trump card to determine our collective destiny.
h) What about Lowassa, Membe & Sitta?
The last thing JK may want is to divide the party along three fissures generated by the trio: by letting his ccm cc propose even one of those names because they are the most polarizing figures within the party and bad blood among them is threatening to tear the party into three deplorable parts.
Lowassa may goad members of the ccm national council to elevate him, little does he know his name will not be proposed by the ccm cc for reasons I have just earmarked. So for all purposes and intents, if I were a close confidant of Lowassa, I would advise him to forget the president or move to the opposition backbench where political life is as good as in the wilderness.
For Membe & Sitta, I just feel sorry for them for letting the cat out too soon because the chickens are now coming home to roost.
i) CC will pick who?
My predictions lead me to name the following four women for reasons which I will reserve them for now.
The four women and one man are all in the ccm cc new and those are (in preferential random order):-
i) Dr. Asha Rose Migiro.
ii) Professor Anne Tibaijuka
iii) Dr. Maua Daftari.
iv) Ms. Anne Makinda.
v) Dr. Ahmed Salim.
j) National Council will settle for who?
i) Dr. Asha Rose Migiro.
ii) Professor Anne Tibaijuka
iii) Dr. Ahmed Salim.
K) CCM Congress will pick who?
Dr. Ahmed Salim may turn out to be the eventual winner sending JK succession plans into disarray.........................
l) Will Dr. Ahmed Salim win the 2015 election?
Of course by a huge landslide..............the guy hates official graft more than Dr. slaa hates ccm! Even here, JK still gets top marks as far as his legacy is concerned as historians will keenly note he was the first president where women outranked men in the ccm presidential nominations. And far more important will be a tiny Pemba, at last had one of their own as the United Republic of Tanzania president........................that will be something to send CDM back to the opposition backbench maybe then they will learn not to touch a Cougar by its tail or audaciously wrestle with a rattlesnake...they will get bitten, here to silence and frustrations.....I just can't wait for this another humiliation accorded to CDM.
And maybe CDM will learn the art of political decency....................again it is just maybe! You never know with them.............they seem hellbent to secure power through anarchy.
Have your say. The reasons behind these trajectories of projected permutations have intentionally been omitted for security reasons............
Without undermining the spirit of a new constitution which is still unborn baby, I do expect that this trend of grooming top leaders within a political party will screech to halt after 2015 as there is almost a consensus that most of the societal ills we are imbibed in today are a result of corrupting government positions with party ones. Hence a vigorous quest to separate the two positions has been gaining currency across the political divide.
Knowing a future president will come from ccm cc therefore there is a need to decipher what JK has in mind and here is my personal assessment of the scenarios that are quietly unfolding:-
While JK like any other homo sapien may prefer to promote one of his surrogates, but he understands that the party is bigger than him, and without it, his legacy is but a few ashes on our political terrain. Hence, JK will do anything in his power to ensure a smooth transfer of power to someone within the cc he has just inaugurated.
HOW WILL JK PLAY HIS GAME OF POLITICAL CHASE?
The past conduct of JK on similar matters is an arena where we may glean some of his strategic thoughts on the matter at hand.
a) Learn something from election banner " Ari mpya, nguvu mpya na kasi mpya."
Most of us have forgotten what that inspiring electoral banner entailed, but JK's presidential career has been defined by that electoral mantra: a burning and yet an insatiable ambition to be a totally different president from his predecessors and possibly his successors........someone who tried to make a difference in our lives and who had also attempted to change political culture in our nation, though with mixed results!
b) But how has JK fared, so far?
i) Do not look far than in the area of appointments because that is where you can discern his zones of "comfortability". It is an area where he has a leeway to surround himself with personalities he cherishes deep in his heart: People who reflects his ideals and share his value systems..for whatever that means.
ii) The appointment of two women; namely, Asha Rose Migiro and Zakhia Hamdani Meghji to head for the first time in our inchoate history the ministries of Foreign affairs and Finance respectively are a case study in hand.
c) What did JK accomplished?
In a twinkling of an eye, JK became the first president in our history to garland our political landscape with women empowerment in such sensitive posts, not even the saintly Nyerere had the visionary leadership to do the same! It had to be JK who did this and I would add JK promoted those women partly because he had his gimlet eyes firmly transfixed on his legacy. JK wanted to be different from his predecessors; although history will also note, that he was more amenable to promote those women who share his spiritual beliefs! Something that is not within the orbit of this analysis, though.
d) What about Speaker Anne Makinda's promotion?
Those who refuse to give JK credit on promotion of women rights are quick to pull the rag behind those who applaud JK on the duo appointment in the cabinet for Migiro and Meghji that the elevation of Makinda was mere accidental and in many ways was to fix an incumbent speaker -read Samuel Sitta- who was considered overambitious and who was abusing his position at the Augusta House to promote his personal political futuristic stakes in the party and the nation at large!
e) Was Samuel Sitta demoted for the sake of empowering women?
My crystal ball informs me that Sitta was punished for his political tantrums and Makinda was a mere coincidental beneficiary of the mayhem that led to the former's downfall. And I may add, so long as JK is in power Sitta will never rise beyond his hitherto portfolio, and nothing else. JK does not trust him and he treats him with kid gloves.
f) Then what is JK's trump card again in this succession battle?
JK will do all that is in his sphere of influence to dissuade mainland men -remember the UMOJA WA VIJANA WA CCM chairmanship election fiasco?- from running for the presidency with one exception of Dr. Ahmed Salim because he is from marginalized Pemba and it will be very difficult to convince CCM Isles that the ccm cc presidential proposals will be without one of their own and there is no female there who has the profound acceptability of carrying the Isles flag to their satisfaction beyond being labeled a cheerleader: Dr Maua Daftari.
Although CC CCM will make all the attempts to show the road to State house is wide and open to all but surreptitious efforts will be initiated to promote three mainland women and one man and a woman from Zanzibar to carry the ccm presidential flag.
In UVCCM chairmanship election fiasco, JK parlayed mainland office seekers as powermongers and CC slashed their names with lightning speed and a cunning Zanzibari, though now a confirmed forgerer- went on almost unopposed to clinch that position!
Similar heartwrenching antics await mainlanders notorious for powermongering.
g) Who are these four women and one man?
Maybe the real question be why the figure of five from ccm cc and not any other number? CC CCM from the multiparty elections of 1995 to 2010 have preferred an odd number of five and the national council through secret ballot truncates the number to three and the national convention gathering picks one from those three.
I see no indication, so far, that that political culture will change come 2015 for a simple reason where a presidential primary election that involves all members of the party is the most desirable way to go but JK feels that he may lose control and those "Mr. money bags" will outwit him knowing rank and file ccm members are very venal and may vote to the highest bidder! So lack of trusting the rank and file of ccm, drives JK not to reform ccm constitution to permit presidential primaries picking ccm presidential flag bearer because he will lose his trump card to determine our collective destiny.
h) What about Lowassa, Membe & Sitta?
The last thing JK may want is to divide the party along three fissures generated by the trio: by letting his ccm cc propose even one of those names because they are the most polarizing figures within the party and bad blood among them is threatening to tear the party into three deplorable parts.
Lowassa may goad members of the ccm national council to elevate him, little does he know his name will not be proposed by the ccm cc for reasons I have just earmarked. So for all purposes and intents, if I were a close confidant of Lowassa, I would advise him to forget the president or move to the opposition backbench where political life is as good as in the wilderness.
For Membe & Sitta, I just feel sorry for them for letting the cat out too soon because the chickens are now coming home to roost.
i) CC will pick who?
My predictions lead me to name the following four women for reasons which I will reserve them for now.
The four women and one man are all in the ccm cc new and those are (in preferential random order):-
i) Dr. Asha Rose Migiro.
ii) Professor Anne Tibaijuka
iii) Dr. Maua Daftari.
iv) Ms. Anne Makinda.
v) Dr. Ahmed Salim.
j) National Council will settle for who?
i) Dr. Asha Rose Migiro.
ii) Professor Anne Tibaijuka
iii) Dr. Ahmed Salim.
K) CCM Congress will pick who?
Dr. Ahmed Salim may turn out to be the eventual winner sending JK succession plans into disarray.........................
l) Will Dr. Ahmed Salim win the 2015 election?
Of course by a huge landslide..............the guy hates official graft more than Dr. slaa hates ccm! Even here, JK still gets top marks as far as his legacy is concerned as historians will keenly note he was the first president where women outranked men in the ccm presidential nominations. And far more important will be a tiny Pemba, at last had one of their own as the United Republic of Tanzania president........................that will be something to send CDM back to the opposition backbench maybe then they will learn not to touch a Cougar by its tail or audaciously wrestle with a rattlesnake...they will get bitten, here to silence and frustrations.....I just can't wait for this another humiliation accorded to CDM.
And maybe CDM will learn the art of political decency....................again it is just maybe! You never know with them.............they seem hellbent to secure power through anarchy.
Have your say. The reasons behind these trajectories of projected permutations have intentionally been omitted for security reasons............
