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DAR ES SALAAM, Februari 22, 2012 – "Tanzania inaweza kuitimiza ndoto yake ya kutamani kukua haraka kupitia kutumia hazina iliyonayo Serikali, kufanya marekebisho yanayotarajiwa kwenye sekta ya elimu, pamoja na kutunga na kutekeleza sera mwafaka zinazolenga kukuza mageuzi ya mashirika mbalimbali," unasema uchambuzi wa kina ambao umefanywa karibuni na Benki ya Dunia.
Mapitio ya kwanza ya uchumi wa Tanzania ambayo yamepewa kichwa: Uchumi Imara: Hazina Iliyonayo Serikali, Thamani ya Fedha Kwenye Elimu, na Mageuzi ya Kiuchumi ya Mashirika Mbalimbali ambayo imezinduliwa leo inaonyesha kwamba nchi imekuwa ikifanya vema kwa miaka kadhaa iliyopita kutokana na kutunga na kutekeleza sera zinazofaa lakini mapitio hayo yanatoa onyo dhidi ya kuridhika kupita kiasi.
"Kutengwa kwa Tanzania kutoka masoko ya dunia kumeisaidia kuhimili misukosuko ya kiuchumi ya nje pamoja na ya kikanda ya hivi karibuni. Hata hivyo, misukosuko hiyo iliyopita haitoi hakikisho lolote kwa Tanzania la kuwa na kinga ya kiuchumi siku zijazo," alionya Mercy Tembon, Kaimu Mkurugenzi wa Benki ya Dunia Nchini Tanzania, Uganda na Burundi. "Ila Tanzania ikiendelea kuitumia hazina kubwa ya busara iliyonayo serikali na kuendelea kudumisha utengemano uliopo nchini na kuwekeza zaidi katika raslimali watu na kuwezesha maendeleo ya biashara, inaweza kulifikia lengo lake la kutamani kukua haraka katika muongo huu."
Ripoti hiyo inatabiri kwamba Tanzania inaweza kukua kwa takriban asilimia 6 (6%) katika mwaka wa 2011/12 lakini inaongeza mara moja kwamba utendaji huu mzuri hata hivyo unaweza kuwa unawakilisha utendaji wa kiwango cha chini sana kwa sababu kiwango hicho cha utendaji kilidhihirishwa kabla kwenye miaka ya awali ya 2000 na kinaonyesha kushuka kwa utendaji ukikilinganisha na utendaji wa asilimia 7.3 na 6.5 (7.3% na 6.5%) ulioshuhudiwa baina ya mwaka 2009/10 na 2010/11. Ripoti inakumbusha kwamba kushuka huku kwa utendaji kwa sehemu kunatokana na masharti mapya yanyoonekana kuwa magumu pamoja na msimamo mkali wa kifedha, ambao umechukuliwa ipasavyo na Serikali ya Tanzania baada ya viashiria vingi kupungua sana kwenye nusu mwaka ya pili ya mwaka 2011.
"Tanzania inatakiwa kutafuta njia mpya za kukua baada ya miaka mitatu ya upanuzi mkubwa" anasema Jacques Morisset, Mchumi Kiongozi wa Benki ya Dunia nchini Tanzania. "Changamoto kubwa ni kuwezesha kuwepo msukumo mpya wa ukuzi kupitia matokeo na ujuzi vitakavyopatikana kutokana na elimu bora,vitu ambavyo hatimaye vitadumisha upatikanaji wa ajira na mageuzi ya mashirika mbalimbali."
Mapitio ya kwanza ya uchumi wa Tanzania yanasisitiza kwamba elimu limekuwa jambo ambalo limekuwa likipewa kipaumbele kitaifa eneo ambalo Serikali imewekeza takriban asilimia 20 (20%) ya bajeti yake kila mwaka lakini changamoto nyingine itakuwa kuzalisha wahitimu wengi wakati shule nyingi zikiwa na rasilimali chache huku kukiwa na ongezeko kubwa la idadi kubwa ya wanafunzi.
"Ili thamani ya fedha izidi kuthaminiwa zaidi, itabidi kuwepo na mabadiliko katika mgawanyo wa fedha na rasilimali miongoni mwa wilaya, itabidi pia uwezo wa walimu na usimamizi wa fedha viboreshwe, na kuwepo na ubia baina ya sekta binafsi na wazazi", anasema Stevan Lee, Mwandishi mwenza wa ripoti hii.
Benki pia inahisi kwamba ishara za mageuzi ya kiuchumi zimejitokeza kutoka sekta binafsi pamoja na kutokana na maendeleo ya kiteknolojia na kielimu kama nyenzo muhimu. Mashirika madogo na ya kati kwa sasa ni vyanzo vikuu vya ajira na uzalishaji wa bidhaa za nje umeendelea kustawi tangu mwaka 2005. Ishara njema zaidi zinaweza kudumishwa kwa kuwepo sera nzuri.
Mapitio ya uchumi wa Tanzania yatakuwa yanachapishwa mara mbili kwa mwaka na ni sehemu muhimu ya Mpango wa Uchambuzi wa Benki ya Dunia ambao una lengo la kusaidia kutoa fursa ya kuwepo mjadala unaoboresha sera baina ya wadau mbalimbali na waandaaji wa sera na kuhimiza kuwepo kwa majadiliano kuhusu masuala muhimu ya kiuchumi.
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For English Users:
DAR ES SALAAM, February 22, 2012 – Tanzania can achieve her vision of accelerated and shared growth through the combination of fiscal prudence, cost-effective reforms in the education sector, and smart policies aimed at promoting the transformation of firms, says the latest World Bank analysis.
The first Tanzania Economic Update titled Stairways to Heaven: Fiscal Prudence, Value for Money in Education, and Economic Transformation of Firms, launched today, shows that the country has been performing well over the past few years due to effective demand policies but warns against complacency.
"Tanzania relative isolation from global markets has helped it to survive recent external and regional shocks. However, this resilience of the economy in the past does not necessarily guarantee immunity in the future," cautioned Mercy Tembon, World Bank Acting Country Director for Tanzania, Uganda and Burundi. "But if Tanzania continues to commit to fiscal prudence and stability and make further investments in human capital and in facilitating business development, it could reach its ambitious target of rapid and shared growth in the current decade."
The report forecasts that Tanzania could grow at around 6 percent in 2011/12 but quickly adds that this good performance would nevertheless represent the lowest rate achieved since the early 2000s and a slowdown compared to 7.3 and 6.5 percent observed in 2009/10 and 2010/11. The report notes that this deceleration is partly the result of the new restrictive fiscal and monetary stance, rightly adopted by the Government of Tanzania after the deterioration of several indicators during the second half of 2011.
"Tanzania needs to find new drivers of growth after three years of rapid fiscal expansion" says Jacques Morisset, the Bank's Lead Economist for Tanzania. "The challenge is to create new impulse for growth through better education outcomes and skills, which will in turn sustain job creation and transformation of firms."
The first economic update on Tanzania underlines that education has been a national priority where the Government has invested as much as 20 percent of its budget every year, but the next challenge will be to produce more graduates with limited fiscal resources and fast growing school populations.
"Getting better value for money will require some reallocation of fiscal and human resources across districts, improvements in teachers' capabilities and in financial management, and synergies with the private sector and parents", says Stevan Lee, co-author of the report.
The Bank also considers that signs of economic transformation have emerged from the private sector with technological and educational improvements as main drivers. Small and medium firms are now the fastest source of employment growth and manufacturing exports have been booming since 2005. The good signs can be further encouraged by smart supportive policies.
The Tanzania Economic Update will be published biannually and constitutes an important aspect of the World Bank's analytical program that aims at fostering a constructive policy dialogue between stakeholders and policymakers and to stimulate debate on critical economic issues.
Mapitio ya kwanza ya uchumi wa Tanzania ambayo yamepewa kichwa: Uchumi Imara: Hazina Iliyonayo Serikali, Thamani ya Fedha Kwenye Elimu, na Mageuzi ya Kiuchumi ya Mashirika Mbalimbali ambayo imezinduliwa leo inaonyesha kwamba nchi imekuwa ikifanya vema kwa miaka kadhaa iliyopita kutokana na kutunga na kutekeleza sera zinazofaa lakini mapitio hayo yanatoa onyo dhidi ya kuridhika kupita kiasi.
"Kutengwa kwa Tanzania kutoka masoko ya dunia kumeisaidia kuhimili misukosuko ya kiuchumi ya nje pamoja na ya kikanda ya hivi karibuni. Hata hivyo, misukosuko hiyo iliyopita haitoi hakikisho lolote kwa Tanzania la kuwa na kinga ya kiuchumi siku zijazo," alionya Mercy Tembon, Kaimu Mkurugenzi wa Benki ya Dunia Nchini Tanzania, Uganda na Burundi. "Ila Tanzania ikiendelea kuitumia hazina kubwa ya busara iliyonayo serikali na kuendelea kudumisha utengemano uliopo nchini na kuwekeza zaidi katika raslimali watu na kuwezesha maendeleo ya biashara, inaweza kulifikia lengo lake la kutamani kukua haraka katika muongo huu."
Ripoti hiyo inatabiri kwamba Tanzania inaweza kukua kwa takriban asilimia 6 (6%) katika mwaka wa 2011/12 lakini inaongeza mara moja kwamba utendaji huu mzuri hata hivyo unaweza kuwa unawakilisha utendaji wa kiwango cha chini sana kwa sababu kiwango hicho cha utendaji kilidhihirishwa kabla kwenye miaka ya awali ya 2000 na kinaonyesha kushuka kwa utendaji ukikilinganisha na utendaji wa asilimia 7.3 na 6.5 (7.3% na 6.5%) ulioshuhudiwa baina ya mwaka 2009/10 na 2010/11. Ripoti inakumbusha kwamba kushuka huku kwa utendaji kwa sehemu kunatokana na masharti mapya yanyoonekana kuwa magumu pamoja na msimamo mkali wa kifedha, ambao umechukuliwa ipasavyo na Serikali ya Tanzania baada ya viashiria vingi kupungua sana kwenye nusu mwaka ya pili ya mwaka 2011.
"Tanzania inatakiwa kutafuta njia mpya za kukua baada ya miaka mitatu ya upanuzi mkubwa" anasema Jacques Morisset, Mchumi Kiongozi wa Benki ya Dunia nchini Tanzania. "Changamoto kubwa ni kuwezesha kuwepo msukumo mpya wa ukuzi kupitia matokeo na ujuzi vitakavyopatikana kutokana na elimu bora,vitu ambavyo hatimaye vitadumisha upatikanaji wa ajira na mageuzi ya mashirika mbalimbali."
Mapitio ya kwanza ya uchumi wa Tanzania yanasisitiza kwamba elimu limekuwa jambo ambalo limekuwa likipewa kipaumbele kitaifa eneo ambalo Serikali imewekeza takriban asilimia 20 (20%) ya bajeti yake kila mwaka lakini changamoto nyingine itakuwa kuzalisha wahitimu wengi wakati shule nyingi zikiwa na rasilimali chache huku kukiwa na ongezeko kubwa la idadi kubwa ya wanafunzi.
"Ili thamani ya fedha izidi kuthaminiwa zaidi, itabidi kuwepo na mabadiliko katika mgawanyo wa fedha na rasilimali miongoni mwa wilaya, itabidi pia uwezo wa walimu na usimamizi wa fedha viboreshwe, na kuwepo na ubia baina ya sekta binafsi na wazazi", anasema Stevan Lee, Mwandishi mwenza wa ripoti hii.
Benki pia inahisi kwamba ishara za mageuzi ya kiuchumi zimejitokeza kutoka sekta binafsi pamoja na kutokana na maendeleo ya kiteknolojia na kielimu kama nyenzo muhimu. Mashirika madogo na ya kati kwa sasa ni vyanzo vikuu vya ajira na uzalishaji wa bidhaa za nje umeendelea kustawi tangu mwaka 2005. Ishara njema zaidi zinaweza kudumishwa kwa kuwepo sera nzuri.
Mapitio ya uchumi wa Tanzania yatakuwa yanachapishwa mara mbili kwa mwaka na ni sehemu muhimu ya Mpango wa Uchambuzi wa Benki ya Dunia ambao una lengo la kusaidia kutoa fursa ya kuwepo mjadala unaoboresha sera baina ya wadau mbalimbali na waandaaji wa sera na kuhimiza kuwepo kwa majadiliano kuhusu masuala muhimu ya kiuchumi.
====================
For English Users:
Tanzania on Stairways to Economic Heaven – World Bank Report
DAR ES SALAAM, February 22, 2012 – Tanzania can achieve her vision of accelerated and shared growth through the combination of fiscal prudence, cost-effective reforms in the education sector, and smart policies aimed at promoting the transformation of firms, says the latest World Bank analysis.
The first Tanzania Economic Update titled Stairways to Heaven: Fiscal Prudence, Value for Money in Education, and Economic Transformation of Firms, launched today, shows that the country has been performing well over the past few years due to effective demand policies but warns against complacency.
"Tanzania relative isolation from global markets has helped it to survive recent external and regional shocks. However, this resilience of the economy in the past does not necessarily guarantee immunity in the future," cautioned Mercy Tembon, World Bank Acting Country Director for Tanzania, Uganda and Burundi. "But if Tanzania continues to commit to fiscal prudence and stability and make further investments in human capital and in facilitating business development, it could reach its ambitious target of rapid and shared growth in the current decade."
The report forecasts that Tanzania could grow at around 6 percent in 2011/12 but quickly adds that this good performance would nevertheless represent the lowest rate achieved since the early 2000s and a slowdown compared to 7.3 and 6.5 percent observed in 2009/10 and 2010/11. The report notes that this deceleration is partly the result of the new restrictive fiscal and monetary stance, rightly adopted by the Government of Tanzania after the deterioration of several indicators during the second half of 2011.
"Tanzania needs to find new drivers of growth after three years of rapid fiscal expansion" says Jacques Morisset, the Bank's Lead Economist for Tanzania. "The challenge is to create new impulse for growth through better education outcomes and skills, which will in turn sustain job creation and transformation of firms."
The first economic update on Tanzania underlines that education has been a national priority where the Government has invested as much as 20 percent of its budget every year, but the next challenge will be to produce more graduates with limited fiscal resources and fast growing school populations.
"Getting better value for money will require some reallocation of fiscal and human resources across districts, improvements in teachers' capabilities and in financial management, and synergies with the private sector and parents", says Stevan Lee, co-author of the report.
The Bank also considers that signs of economic transformation have emerged from the private sector with technological and educational improvements as main drivers. Small and medium firms are now the fastest source of employment growth and manufacturing exports have been booming since 2005. The good signs can be further encouraged by smart supportive policies.
The Tanzania Economic Update will be published biannually and constitutes an important aspect of the World Bank's analytical program that aims at fostering a constructive policy dialogue between stakeholders and policymakers and to stimulate debate on critical economic issues.