Membe S K
Platinum Member
- Mar 10, 2006
- 1,389
- 1,253
TANZANIA FOREIGN POLICY: THREE PRESIDENTS THREE DIFFERENT FOCUSES.
INTRODUCTION
From 1961 to 2008 the Tanzania's Foreign Policy (TFP) focused largely on African liberation and peace keeping/building. So far this is the time the country's foreign policy recorded unquestionable success and earned international recognition.
Since then the focus has been changing in strange and interesting fashion every time the new administration came to power. The Jakaya Kikwete's administration sought to promote economic growth by adopting economic diplomacy in late 2000s, well before his successor Magufuli switched to self-imposed isolationism diplomacy. Currently under president Samia Hassan the country is practicing a new brand of diplomacy: China-centered diplomacy.
The article takes a closer look at these changes and discusses economic and political implications. Overall the Kikwete's economic diplomacy positioned the country better in today's global economy of globalization of trade and investment. Political and economic costs resulting from tailoring foreign policy to China remain unknown. As such, cost benefit study with an emphasis on opportunity cost is warranted.
FROM LIBERATION DIPLOMACY TO PEACE DIPLOMACY.
During Nyerere's administration TFP was clearly about PAN AFRICANISM enshrined in the country's commitment in lending an helping hand to independence fighters across Africa. Throughout the 70s the country championed LIBERATION DIPLOMACY with remarkable success recorded in helping SWAPO in Namibia, ANC in South African and FRELIMO in Mozambique to name a few.
As many countries became independent liberation diplomacy lost relevance. Accordingly the TFP shifted towards PEACE KEEPING and later in the 90s PEACE BUILDING DIPLOMACY (Peace Diplomacy). The country's peace keeping missions and diplomatic envoys sent to such countries as Rwanda, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Uganda earned worldwide recognition and support.
NEW GLOBAL ORDER AND ADOPTION OF ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY.
End of Cold War in the end of 80s marked the much anticipated defeat of Nyerere's socialism along with his notorious mono-party governance. It was time for the TFP to align with a new "World Order" characterized by free market economy, regional economic integrations, democracy and good governance.
The Jakaya Kikwete's ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY was adopted in response to the needs of new World order. The policy aimed at making the majority of diplomatic activities focus on promotion of national economic growth. At home the government was to create conducive political and economic environment for foreign investors. Adoption of economic diplomacy was inevitable as the advancement in information technology quickly moved global economy towards globalization of trade and investment in 2000s. Also economic diplomacy put Tanzania's economy in 'safe mode' against globalization's inbuilt mechanism that punishes economies that reject or abuse the fundamentals of globalization.
Economic diplomacy faced major setbacks from its very inception. First, the policy lacked common understanding among representatives abroad and at home from the word go. This didn't come to surprise since the majority of representatives abroad were political appointees not foreign direct investment specialists and international trade economists. Overcoming the challenge the Kikwete administration spent a significant chunk of tax revenue to deploy qualified individuals abroad and establish special departments in many embassies across the globe.
The second major setback was lack of stable source of funds to run the program. One would expect such a large scale program impacting almost all embassies abroad required heavy annual investment. It turned out that the program didn't have special and stable budget to operate sustainably from its inception.
Nevertheless economic diplomacy started to yield economic benefits at the end of Kikwete's administration. The benefits included foreign investment in Natural gas in Mtwara, Uranium in Ruvuma, Bagamoyo port, LNG plant in Lindi, Julius Nyerere Convention Center etc. Politically economic diplomacy played a great role in having World leaders (US and China presidents) visit Tanzania. Also the country enjoyed hosting numerous international events and meetings.
FROM ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY TO SELF-IMPOSED ISOLATIONISM AND PROTECTIONISM DIPLOMACY.
In 2016 the Kikwete's economic diplomacy was fully replaced by the late Magufuli's Self-imposed Isolationism and Protectionism Foreign Policy (IPFP). Under the IPFP Tanzania chose not to be part of the dynamics of global economy and politics. As a matter of fact Tanzania didn't fully participate in multilateral program led by the United Nations to contain global COVID 19 pandemic.
The IPFP was definitely meant to dismantle and undo thel Kikwete's economic diplomacy. Internationally the IPFP provided no room for such important strategic aspects of prosperous economic diplomacy as bilateral and multilateral diplomacy, regional economic integration, cooperation with multinational corporations, and South-South cooperation.
Back home internal political and economic landscape proved unfavorable for any meaningful foreign direct investment. Undemocratic and sham elections, human rights abuses, excessive nepotism, kidnapping and disappearance of innocent people, public humiliation and unlawful expulsion of foreign investors, and excessive government interference of the interplays of market forces suffocated the functioning of economic diplomacy.
IPFP dented bilateral relationships the country had enjoyed with the West since independence. As matter of fact Magufuli hardly visited the USA and Canada to strengthen the relationship, instead the administration gave a cold shoulder to diplomatic missions sent to rescue the relationship. At the peak of deteriorating relationship the USA banned top government officials from entering the USA as Canada grounded Tanzania's aircraft under the pretext that the government of Tanzania had failed to settle an outstanding amount owed to a South African man of Canadian origin. The aircraft was finally released after several rounds of bilateral talks.
The long lived relationship with Western Sahara is another disappointment. For many years Tanzania committed to aiding Western Sahara to become a nation state. Much so during the Kikwete's administration. However, in 2016 the government of Tanzania lost interest and momentum in helping the Presarios to become independent from Morocco.
As that wasn't enough, long time best friends, Mozambique and Tanzania failed to cooperate in containing Al shabab like rebels at northern border of Mozambique. One would expect president Samia's cheerful visit to Mozambique nearly two years ago would have paved a way for a joint responsibility to get the extremists out of the borders. Standing to be corrected it isn't to my knowledge if that had happened.
FROM IPFP TO CHINA CENTERED DIPLOMACY.
Currently the focus of TFP is on CHINA. The ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation has categorically declared that "a cornerstone of Tanzania's Foreign Policy has been its deepening ties with China." (Tanzania's Strategic Foreign Relations: China, Western Ties and Global Strategy) Though the ministry says it also strengthens and maintains relationships with the West and other global players it gives no further details as to how the relationship is being maintained.
Two important questions are: why China? and what are the trade offs in this relationship? The obvious answers to the first question is that (a) China is the biggest bilateral lender in Africa willing to extend loans and provide debt relief without demanding much from borrowers in terms of combating corruption, upholding democracy and good governance; (b) Chinese investment in infrastructure (airports, railways, sewage, roads, ports etc) is vital in expanding production possibility frontiers and generating tax revenue; and (c) For two decades now China has become biggest trade partner in Africa. From Africa China imports raw materials and natural resources whereas Africa imports Chinese basic and affordable manufactured products.
As the say goes there isn't such thing as free lunch. The relationship with China comes with economic and political price tags. Economically the importation of basic manufactured goods is likely going to subject the country's infant industries to unfair competition, further research on this is warranted. Also Chinese lending practices aren't transparent, as such it is impossible to analyze debt sustainability since debt burden services are not known. This in turn increases investment uncertainty and risk perception among potential investors. Furthermore, investment in infrastructure and mining is to large extent capital intensive in its very nature. To the contrary the country needs labor intensive investment especially in agriculture to raise standards of living of the majority.
Politically there are two points to consider. One is that strong bilateral relationship with one superpower displeases other superpowers along with their staunch allies. As matter of fact already Western superpowers have expressed their concerns in various articles about China's hidden goals under Africa political and economic cooperation with China. The other is that relationship with China is undoubtedly going to make indebted Tanzania comply with China's geopolitical aspirations, hence eroding her sovereignty. These two points mattered so much to the late Julius Nyerere that he openly opted for non-aligned stance despite the strong ties his country had with China.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
Tanzania's Foreign Policy has been changing focus since independence. After independence the focus was on liberating fellow African countries, when this was successfully done the focus shifted to conflict resolution and keeping peace in Africa. During this time the country got a remarkable support from international institutions especially the United Nations.
As the Cold War ended with the victory of Western democracy and capitalism foreign policy had to reposition in the global economy take advantage of globalization of trade and investment reinforced by information technology advancement. Economic diplomacy became the focus of our Foreign Policy. The majority of diplomatic activities was about showcasing investment opportunities in our country with the aim of promoting economic growth. However, the policy lacked continuous commitment and interest from Magufuli's administration. Also lack of funds and experts needed to make the program prosper proved too much for the survival of the program.
The shift to economic diplomacy was undoubtedly justifiable politically and economically. Unlike all other foreign policy focuses, economic diplomacy would absorb and survive global economic and political turbulence. Moreover, such policy would transform Tanzania's embassies abroad into foreign direct investment advisory offices hence contributing to economic growth. Economic diplomacy by any measure deserves to be the main and long term focus of TFP.
The country adopted self-imposed isolationism foreign policy and practiced undemocratic governance at home. This not only put a final nail to the coffin of economic diplomacy but also kept afar the majority of our staunch friends across the globe.
Why did the country adopt such counterproductive foreign policy? It is a milion-dollar question for policy makers and some government officials. They wouldn't even like to comment a thing. Politically vocal and constructive critics blame on the 1977 outdated constitution that gives the president excessive power to alter at his discretion any matters of national interest with impunity. They urge the country to adopt the pending new constitution draft that chops off excessive presidential powers.
Now the country is test driving China focused diplomacy. It is all about China benefiting the country in terms of all aspects of debts relief and direct investment in infrastructure, mining and energy. Most importantly, China is the country's major trade partner.
Definitely relationship with China comes with cost. Available literature lacks Cost-Benefit Studies on China - Tanzania relationship, therefore it is important to undertake such study in a near future to identify political, economic and social costs and find ways to mitigate.
Of economic importance is (i) how trade with China going to impact infant industries; (ii) how economic forecast going to be impacted by the lack of complete information about the country's debt with China and sustainability of that debt; (iii) how trade with China going to affect intra-African states trade (trade creation vs diversion); (iv) the exact costs of Chinese capital intensive investment in infrastructure and mining; and (v) possibility that Tanzania and Africa as whole can replicate China's model of economic development.
Politically the study should attempt to answer the following questions: (a) China is undemocratic as per the champions of democracy in the West, the status that China is comfortable with. Is Tanzania going to comfortably share the status with her political and economic mentor, China? If so at what domestic and international costs? and (b) China is one of the biggest powers in global politics, how is indebted Tanzania going to play impartial in international political issues that involve China's interest such as current situation with Taiwan and Hong Kong? If being impartial or partial is by any means possible what would be the opportunity cost?
Foreign Policy normally ought to represent country's value and stance in international platforms. Nyerere's Liberation diplomacy, Peace Diplomacy, and Kikwete's economic diplomacy did exactly that. Liberating fellow Africans and keeping peace in African continent were core values and mission embedded in Foreign Policy. Yet China was the country's staunch friend, and so were the USA, Scandinavians, Canada and many other. The country had a choice especially during Cold War to tie her Foreign Policy to a specific international power. She didn't, why now?
Self-imposed Isolationism diplomacy and China centered diplomacy seldom reflect what the country stands for globally. If anything the two diplomacies "personalize or "presidentialize' (if you wish) the country's Foreign Policy. What did the country intend to achieve in this day and age of globalization under self-imposed isolationism diplomacy? What does the country intend to achieve in terms of her commitment to uphold human rights, democracy and good governance under China Focused diplomacy?
Tanzania really doesn't need to tie her Foreign Policy to a certain country in today's world. Instead she should "tie" the policy itself to reflect what she believes in, wish for and how she goes for. Kikwete's economic diplomacy got all right, well except the will and support of his successors.
JUST SAY I SAID
Membe S K
Mtama, Rondo Chiponda
Lindi Tanzania
Tel +255689463664
Email:smembe426@gmail.com
INTRODUCTION
From 1961 to 2008 the Tanzania's Foreign Policy (TFP) focused largely on African liberation and peace keeping/building. So far this is the time the country's foreign policy recorded unquestionable success and earned international recognition.
Since then the focus has been changing in strange and interesting fashion every time the new administration came to power. The Jakaya Kikwete's administration sought to promote economic growth by adopting economic diplomacy in late 2000s, well before his successor Magufuli switched to self-imposed isolationism diplomacy. Currently under president Samia Hassan the country is practicing a new brand of diplomacy: China-centered diplomacy.
The article takes a closer look at these changes and discusses economic and political implications. Overall the Kikwete's economic diplomacy positioned the country better in today's global economy of globalization of trade and investment. Political and economic costs resulting from tailoring foreign policy to China remain unknown. As such, cost benefit study with an emphasis on opportunity cost is warranted.
FROM LIBERATION DIPLOMACY TO PEACE DIPLOMACY.
During Nyerere's administration TFP was clearly about PAN AFRICANISM enshrined in the country's commitment in lending an helping hand to independence fighters across Africa. Throughout the 70s the country championed LIBERATION DIPLOMACY with remarkable success recorded in helping SWAPO in Namibia, ANC in South African and FRELIMO in Mozambique to name a few.
As many countries became independent liberation diplomacy lost relevance. Accordingly the TFP shifted towards PEACE KEEPING and later in the 90s PEACE BUILDING DIPLOMACY (Peace Diplomacy). The country's peace keeping missions and diplomatic envoys sent to such countries as Rwanda, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Uganda earned worldwide recognition and support.
NEW GLOBAL ORDER AND ADOPTION OF ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY.
End of Cold War in the end of 80s marked the much anticipated defeat of Nyerere's socialism along with his notorious mono-party governance. It was time for the TFP to align with a new "World Order" characterized by free market economy, regional economic integrations, democracy and good governance.
The Jakaya Kikwete's ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY was adopted in response to the needs of new World order. The policy aimed at making the majority of diplomatic activities focus on promotion of national economic growth. At home the government was to create conducive political and economic environment for foreign investors. Adoption of economic diplomacy was inevitable as the advancement in information technology quickly moved global economy towards globalization of trade and investment in 2000s. Also economic diplomacy put Tanzania's economy in 'safe mode' against globalization's inbuilt mechanism that punishes economies that reject or abuse the fundamentals of globalization.
Economic diplomacy faced major setbacks from its very inception. First, the policy lacked common understanding among representatives abroad and at home from the word go. This didn't come to surprise since the majority of representatives abroad were political appointees not foreign direct investment specialists and international trade economists. Overcoming the challenge the Kikwete administration spent a significant chunk of tax revenue to deploy qualified individuals abroad and establish special departments in many embassies across the globe.
The second major setback was lack of stable source of funds to run the program. One would expect such a large scale program impacting almost all embassies abroad required heavy annual investment. It turned out that the program didn't have special and stable budget to operate sustainably from its inception.
Nevertheless economic diplomacy started to yield economic benefits at the end of Kikwete's administration. The benefits included foreign investment in Natural gas in Mtwara, Uranium in Ruvuma, Bagamoyo port, LNG plant in Lindi, Julius Nyerere Convention Center etc. Politically economic diplomacy played a great role in having World leaders (US and China presidents) visit Tanzania. Also the country enjoyed hosting numerous international events and meetings.
FROM ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY TO SELF-IMPOSED ISOLATIONISM AND PROTECTIONISM DIPLOMACY.
In 2016 the Kikwete's economic diplomacy was fully replaced by the late Magufuli's Self-imposed Isolationism and Protectionism Foreign Policy (IPFP). Under the IPFP Tanzania chose not to be part of the dynamics of global economy and politics. As a matter of fact Tanzania didn't fully participate in multilateral program led by the United Nations to contain global COVID 19 pandemic.
The IPFP was definitely meant to dismantle and undo thel Kikwete's economic diplomacy. Internationally the IPFP provided no room for such important strategic aspects of prosperous economic diplomacy as bilateral and multilateral diplomacy, regional economic integration, cooperation with multinational corporations, and South-South cooperation.
Back home internal political and economic landscape proved unfavorable for any meaningful foreign direct investment. Undemocratic and sham elections, human rights abuses, excessive nepotism, kidnapping and disappearance of innocent people, public humiliation and unlawful expulsion of foreign investors, and excessive government interference of the interplays of market forces suffocated the functioning of economic diplomacy.
IPFP dented bilateral relationships the country had enjoyed with the West since independence. As matter of fact Magufuli hardly visited the USA and Canada to strengthen the relationship, instead the administration gave a cold shoulder to diplomatic missions sent to rescue the relationship. At the peak of deteriorating relationship the USA banned top government officials from entering the USA as Canada grounded Tanzania's aircraft under the pretext that the government of Tanzania had failed to settle an outstanding amount owed to a South African man of Canadian origin. The aircraft was finally released after several rounds of bilateral talks.
The long lived relationship with Western Sahara is another disappointment. For many years Tanzania committed to aiding Western Sahara to become a nation state. Much so during the Kikwete's administration. However, in 2016 the government of Tanzania lost interest and momentum in helping the Presarios to become independent from Morocco.
As that wasn't enough, long time best friends, Mozambique and Tanzania failed to cooperate in containing Al shabab like rebels at northern border of Mozambique. One would expect president Samia's cheerful visit to Mozambique nearly two years ago would have paved a way for a joint responsibility to get the extremists out of the borders. Standing to be corrected it isn't to my knowledge if that had happened.
FROM IPFP TO CHINA CENTERED DIPLOMACY.
Currently the focus of TFP is on CHINA. The ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation has categorically declared that "a cornerstone of Tanzania's Foreign Policy has been its deepening ties with China." (Tanzania's Strategic Foreign Relations: China, Western Ties and Global Strategy) Though the ministry says it also strengthens and maintains relationships with the West and other global players it gives no further details as to how the relationship is being maintained.
Two important questions are: why China? and what are the trade offs in this relationship? The obvious answers to the first question is that (a) China is the biggest bilateral lender in Africa willing to extend loans and provide debt relief without demanding much from borrowers in terms of combating corruption, upholding democracy and good governance; (b) Chinese investment in infrastructure (airports, railways, sewage, roads, ports etc) is vital in expanding production possibility frontiers and generating tax revenue; and (c) For two decades now China has become biggest trade partner in Africa. From Africa China imports raw materials and natural resources whereas Africa imports Chinese basic and affordable manufactured products.
As the say goes there isn't such thing as free lunch. The relationship with China comes with economic and political price tags. Economically the importation of basic manufactured goods is likely going to subject the country's infant industries to unfair competition, further research on this is warranted. Also Chinese lending practices aren't transparent, as such it is impossible to analyze debt sustainability since debt burden services are not known. This in turn increases investment uncertainty and risk perception among potential investors. Furthermore, investment in infrastructure and mining is to large extent capital intensive in its very nature. To the contrary the country needs labor intensive investment especially in agriculture to raise standards of living of the majority.
Politically there are two points to consider. One is that strong bilateral relationship with one superpower displeases other superpowers along with their staunch allies. As matter of fact already Western superpowers have expressed their concerns in various articles about China's hidden goals under Africa political and economic cooperation with China. The other is that relationship with China is undoubtedly going to make indebted Tanzania comply with China's geopolitical aspirations, hence eroding her sovereignty. These two points mattered so much to the late Julius Nyerere that he openly opted for non-aligned stance despite the strong ties his country had with China.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
Tanzania's Foreign Policy has been changing focus since independence. After independence the focus was on liberating fellow African countries, when this was successfully done the focus shifted to conflict resolution and keeping peace in Africa. During this time the country got a remarkable support from international institutions especially the United Nations.
As the Cold War ended with the victory of Western democracy and capitalism foreign policy had to reposition in the global economy take advantage of globalization of trade and investment reinforced by information technology advancement. Economic diplomacy became the focus of our Foreign Policy. The majority of diplomatic activities was about showcasing investment opportunities in our country with the aim of promoting economic growth. However, the policy lacked continuous commitment and interest from Magufuli's administration. Also lack of funds and experts needed to make the program prosper proved too much for the survival of the program.
The shift to economic diplomacy was undoubtedly justifiable politically and economically. Unlike all other foreign policy focuses, economic diplomacy would absorb and survive global economic and political turbulence. Moreover, such policy would transform Tanzania's embassies abroad into foreign direct investment advisory offices hence contributing to economic growth. Economic diplomacy by any measure deserves to be the main and long term focus of TFP.
The country adopted self-imposed isolationism foreign policy and practiced undemocratic governance at home. This not only put a final nail to the coffin of economic diplomacy but also kept afar the majority of our staunch friends across the globe.
Why did the country adopt such counterproductive foreign policy? It is a milion-dollar question for policy makers and some government officials. They wouldn't even like to comment a thing. Politically vocal and constructive critics blame on the 1977 outdated constitution that gives the president excessive power to alter at his discretion any matters of national interest with impunity. They urge the country to adopt the pending new constitution draft that chops off excessive presidential powers.
Now the country is test driving China focused diplomacy. It is all about China benefiting the country in terms of all aspects of debts relief and direct investment in infrastructure, mining and energy. Most importantly, China is the country's major trade partner.
Definitely relationship with China comes with cost. Available literature lacks Cost-Benefit Studies on China - Tanzania relationship, therefore it is important to undertake such study in a near future to identify political, economic and social costs and find ways to mitigate.
Of economic importance is (i) how trade with China going to impact infant industries; (ii) how economic forecast going to be impacted by the lack of complete information about the country's debt with China and sustainability of that debt; (iii) how trade with China going to affect intra-African states trade (trade creation vs diversion); (iv) the exact costs of Chinese capital intensive investment in infrastructure and mining; and (v) possibility that Tanzania and Africa as whole can replicate China's model of economic development.
Politically the study should attempt to answer the following questions: (a) China is undemocratic as per the champions of democracy in the West, the status that China is comfortable with. Is Tanzania going to comfortably share the status with her political and economic mentor, China? If so at what domestic and international costs? and (b) China is one of the biggest powers in global politics, how is indebted Tanzania going to play impartial in international political issues that involve China's interest such as current situation with Taiwan and Hong Kong? If being impartial or partial is by any means possible what would be the opportunity cost?
Foreign Policy normally ought to represent country's value and stance in international platforms. Nyerere's Liberation diplomacy, Peace Diplomacy, and Kikwete's economic diplomacy did exactly that. Liberating fellow Africans and keeping peace in African continent were core values and mission embedded in Foreign Policy. Yet China was the country's staunch friend, and so were the USA, Scandinavians, Canada and many other. The country had a choice especially during Cold War to tie her Foreign Policy to a specific international power. She didn't, why now?
Self-imposed Isolationism diplomacy and China centered diplomacy seldom reflect what the country stands for globally. If anything the two diplomacies "personalize or "presidentialize' (if you wish) the country's Foreign Policy. What did the country intend to achieve in this day and age of globalization under self-imposed isolationism diplomacy? What does the country intend to achieve in terms of her commitment to uphold human rights, democracy and good governance under China Focused diplomacy?
Tanzania really doesn't need to tie her Foreign Policy to a certain country in today's world. Instead she should "tie" the policy itself to reflect what she believes in, wish for and how she goes for. Kikwete's economic diplomacy got all right, well except the will and support of his successors.
JUST SAY I SAID
Membe S K
Mtama, Rondo Chiponda
Lindi Tanzania
Tel +255689463664
Email:smembe426@gmail.com