TWAWEZA: Radicalism on the rise? Citizens' views on security and radicalization

[Hussein Massanza]

1. Introduction

Tanzania has always been known as a nation of peace and political stability, and the recent election was a testament to this. Although there was speculation about the possibility of violence both before and after 25 October, the election period passed relatively peacefully. In addition, Tanzania has never faced civil conflict. And citizens themselves report feeling secure, being satisfied with the work of police around elections, and having faith in the army .

However, on a larger scale, the threat to security in East Africa seems to be growing. Radical organizations, specifically the Somalia based Al-Shabab, have been mounting deadly attacks in the region in recent years. The bloodiest of these have been in Kenya and Uganda, but there have been other threats to Tanzania. A 2014 report states that, since 2012, Tanzania has been experiencing a rising number of terrorist and radical attacks . Recently, a February attack on police stations in Tanga was linked to radical factions , and in March The Citizen newspaper reported that Al-Shabab had made a commitment to support ISIS attacks in Tanzania, Kenya, and Ethiopia.

As global and regional headlines continue to emphasize insecurity, it is important to try to understand what citizens' think about radicalism in Tanzania and East Africa. What do they see as the cause of violent extremism? And what solutions do they offer? Are they worried for themselves and their loved ones? Or, are they confident of the nation's peaceful history and ethos, and the capacity of their security forces?

Data for this brief come from Twaweza's flagship Sauti za Wananchi survey. Sauti za Wananchi is a nationally-representative, high-frequency mobile phone panel survey. It is representative for Mainland Tanzania. Information on the overall methodology is available at Sauti za Wananchi :: Uwazi :: Twaweza.org. For this brief data were collected from 1,879 respondents from the second panel for Sauti za Wananchi. This was the third round of calls to the new panel, conducted between 29 September and 11 October 2015.

The key findings are:

• 
  
  
  • More than 8 out of 10 citizens (88%) believe that Tanzania is secure, however fewer feel the same about East Africa as a whole (61%).
  • More than 5 out of 10 citizens (56%) say that economic and political marginalization drives the appeal of radical groups.
  • Almost half of citizens (48%) believe that a heavy crack down using the military, police, and intelligence is the best way for government to counter radicalization and terrorism.
  • 1 out of 20 citizens (5%) know of someone whom a violent extremist group has recruited or tried to recruit.
  • 3 out of 10 citizens are worried about radical organizations trying to recruit their family members in the near future.
  • 6 out of 10 citizens believe that the government did a lot to improve security during the elections.
  • 3 out of 10 citizens cite problems with the police as the main reason why crimes are not reported.

2. Six facts about security and radicalism

Fact 1: Four out of ten citizens believe that East Africa is not secure.
Just 12% of citizens believe that Tanzania is not secure. However, 38% of them believe that East Africa as a whole is not secure. Only 9% of our respondents stated that East Africa is very secure, compared to 26% for Tanzania.

This is consistent with citizens' memory of recent attacks. When asked about recent incidents involving extremist groups, citizens were most likely to be aware of the attacks at Garissa University (63%) and West Gate Mall (40%), both in Kenya 5 . Nevertheless, when asked if they are worried about the threats to attack Tanzania in the near future, 56% reported being worried while 38% were not 6 .

Fact 2: More than half of citizens think marginalization explains the appeal of radical groups.
One third (32%) of respondents did not have an answer when we asked them what might be contributing to the appeal of radical groups in East Africa. Those who had a response highlighted economic and political motivations, including frustration with the government and political system, the lack of employment, and poor governance (56%), over religious ones (21% 7 ).

In addition, 59% of citizens say that young men are the main targets for enrolment in radical/extremist groups .

Fact 3: Half of citizens favour a military solution to radicalism.
Almost half of our respondents (48%) think that security forces should be used to combat radicalism. Nine out of 10 (96%) of Tanzanians view their military as strong, and 90% believe that the military could protect them in case of an attack by a radical group .

Only 20% of citizens believe that working with communities or entering into a dialogue with radical groups is the best way forward.

Fact 4: 3 out of 10 citizens worry about radical organizations trying to recruit their family
Only 5% of citizens know of anyone whom a violent extremist group has recruited or tried to recruit 10 . Despite this, 3 out of 10 citizens (30%) are worried about their family members being targeted for recruitment in the near future.

Fact 5: 6 out of 10 citizens report that the government did a lot to improve security during the election.
In 2015, there was some concern about security during the general elections. This year was the first time that an opposition coalition had come together to mount such a strong challenge and rallies for both sides drew thousands of supporters. There was some concern that demonstrations might escalate into violent protest.

The government took noticeable measures during this time to keep the peace, and 61% of citizens believe that government measures went a long way in improving election security.

Fact 6: 3 out of 10 citizens cite troubles with police as the main reason why crimes are not reported.
The most visible symbol of state security in Tanzania is the police force. They are responsible for maintaining law and order. However, a recent Afrobarometer survey indicates that 56% of those who had experienced crime did not report it to the police 11 . When we asked citizens why crimes are not reported to the police, 3 out of 10 (31%) report some issue with the police themselves 12 .

In addition, 25% of citizens stated that a fear of revenge by their attacker was the main reason people did not report crimes to police.

As a comparison, when asked the same question in February / March of this year, more than 6 out of 10 citizens (61%) cited troubles with the police as the reason crimes do not get reported, and fear of revenge by the attacker was only mentioned by 2% of citizens.

3. Conclusion
Tanzania is known around the world as a haven of peace and political stability; however, increased violence in the region has threatened the security of citizens and made them wary. Even though an overwhelming majority (88%) of citizens say Tanzania is a secure nation, 56% of citizens are concerned about the threat of future attacks on Tanzanian soil.

Also, while only 5% of respondents reported hearing of attempted recruitment by radical groups, 3 out of 10 citizens worry about radical organizations trying to recruit their family members in the near future. Perhaps as a result of this fear, nearly half of all citizens believe that police, military and intelligence services should be used to crack down on extremist groups and on the communities in which they live.

Overall Tanzanians have a high level of faith in their military, and citizens are confident that they would be protected in case of an attack by a radical group. So, what should Tanzania's next move be in the fight against radicalism? Although many citizens seem to favor the use of military force, a recent report suggests that the use of excessive force might exacerbate the extremism it seeks to eliminate.

In the past, Tanzania has opted out of military intervention in Somalia. Considering that there have been no serious attacks within the nation's borders recently, a military strategy seems pre-emptive at best. The most effective method, surely, would be to address the root causes of radicalization which, according to citizens, are largely due to political and economic marginalization.

Deliberate efforts at encouraging and listening to citizens voices, responding to their priority needs, and purposefully working to reduce marginalization will benefit all Tanzanians while significantly reducing the risk of radicalization.

 

[Chakochangu]

Hivi Tanzania na Zanzibar ni Nchi mbili tofauti au?

 

[cyberspace]

Hivi Tanzania na Zanzibar ni Nchi mbili tofauti au?

They won't respond to the survey as radical organization like uamusho are harbored in the isles and are very much glorified

 

[GAUTAMA]

I don't like this kind of reporting, full of clumsy and very shacky scientifically.

 

[Wacha1]

What criteria did Twaweza use to question 1,879 people? What is the margin of error? Has this been proven? As far as I know most samples in developed countries use 1,000 people as any other figure will increase the margin of error.

 

[Kifyatu]

@MR. CONFIDENT

Thank you for the summary report on radicalism and security in Tanzania. You reported citizen's response to the questions you posed to them and the report is excellent. I went to your website (Sauti za Wananchi :: Uwazi :: Twaweza.org) and looked at your methodology section and I am contented that you are doing a fabulous job as social scientists.

What I found wanting in this report is an in-depth analysis of the causes of insecurity and radicalism in Tanzania, and how to deal with them. I will hazard an explanation or two of these causes and solutions, knowing full well that these also will be wanting but, hoping to provoke a discussion. I am going to be terse in these explanations so as to allow others to expand

Insecurity Due to Youth Marginalization.
Youth education and unemployment is a major cause of insecurity whereby unemployed youths engage in violent (or other illegal) acts to make a living. There are many reasons for this state of unemployment for our youths. I will try to highlight a few.

English Language: These days it is common to see unemployed university graduates, let alone high school or primary school graduates. Many of these graduates are not employable due to lack of English language skills. Example: You may find a very skilled school teacher in his subject area BUT one who can't express himself in English and the outcome is to see a less qualified (subject-wise) Kenyan teacher being hired because he is fluent in English and is paid better. Very few Tanzanian youths (from rich families) attend in-country English-medium schools or are sent abroad for their studies. These are the ones who take full advantage of job opportunities available in the country.

Proper Education Curricula: We also need to evaluate if our school/university curricula meet the industry needs. We have a lot secondary schools and universities in the country. I am not sure if these institutions coordinate with employers to determine the appropriate curricula for their students - if you ask me I think they don't.

Illegal Foreign Employees: I am glad the Magufuli government decided to crackdown on employers who hire foreign employee illegally in the country with no proper work permits. This may open the doors to our unemployed graduates.

Lack of Skills for Self Employment: I believe we can help reduce unemployment if we train our students entrepreneurial skills. We only hear leaders telling youths to employ themselves but these youths don't have any business skills. If I were the Minister for Education I would require business subjects (like bookkeeping, accounting, marketing, banking) to be taught (just like math, history, geography) from Primary to High School (as mandatory) and University (as electives). The Indians have been doing this for ages to their children (I know this firsthand because I had Indian friends in secondary school who always went to after-school business classes while I was playing soccer) and we can do this to the entire nation. Of-course someone needs to determine what subjects are taught when and at what level.

Insecurity Due to Youth Extreme Radicalization.
I am not going to mince words here. I will be blunt because this is a serious problem and most of the time people don't want to call a spade a spade. I am talking about radical religious movements the likes of Al-Shabab, Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra, Boko Haram, and all extreme Takfir groups. There is a huge (unfathomable) funding source from Middle-Eastern institutions that are funding these movements. The purpose of these groups is two-fold: political and religious.

Political motive: There is a genuine feeling that the West is trying to undermine these religious groups individually and in their countries. So some of these groups are fighting western powers using asymmetrical techniques, very similar to Gorilla fighters, of terrorism. They target western interests (like the shopping mall in Kenya) to instill fear. Unfortunately, often innocent civilians fall victims of such acts.

There is very little Tanzania can do about changing these political sentiments. All we can do here is to be ever vigilant in our security. It is incumbent upon all of us to say something if we see something unusual to the security organs.

Religious motive: In this case extreme radical (Takfir Sunni) Islam is trying to asserts its dominance over moderate Islam, Christianity (mfumo kristu), Shia Islam, and other non Muslims. This missionary work is very actively recruiting youths (especially unemployed youths).

For these extremists money is no object as such, they become natural magnets for many young people as well as well established institutions of moderate Islam. Often this recruitment starts at a religious level but soon the youths are enticed to join training camps and before you know it they are fighting the west (Political Motive).

At its extreme level, these groups regard any government that does not follow Islamic (Sharia) Law as infidels (governments made up of Kafirs - hence the groups are known as Takfirs, they can pronounce you on the fly as a kafir - without need of the opinion of scholars or Ulama).

Our only peaceful salvation here is to rely on our moderate Muslims in the country to reject there extremist views in distorting the peaceful moderate Islam. This is easier said than done because the amount of money being poured in the course of this missionary work is enormous. If we cannot defeat these extremists peacefully, I guess this is where our law enforcement organs come in.

I welcome your comments and critiques.

 

[Travibela]

@MR. CONFIDENT

Thank you for the summary report on radicalism and security in Tanzania. You reported citizen's response to the questions you posed to them and the report is excellent. I went to your website (Sauti za Wananchi :: Uwazi :: Twaweza.org) and looked at your methodology section and I am contented that you are doing a fabulous job as social scientists.

What I found wanting in this report is an in-depth analysis of the causes of insecurity and radicalism in Tanzania, and how to deal with them. I will hazard an explanation or two of these causes and solutions, knowing full well that these also will be wanting but, hoping to provoke a discussion. I am going to be terse in these explanations so as to allow others to expand

Insecurity Due to Youth Marginalization.
Youth education and unemployment is a major cause of insecurity whereby unemployed youths engage in violent (or other illegal) acts to make a living. There are many reasons for this state of unemployment for our youths. I will try to highlight a few.

English Language: These days it is common to see unemployed university graduates, let alone high school or primary school graduates. Many of these graduates are not employable due to lack of English language skills. Example: You may find a very skilled school teacher in his subject area BUT one who can't express himself in English and the outcome is to see a less qualified (subject-wise) Kenyan teacher being hired because he is fluent in English and is paid better. Very few Tanzanian youths (from rich families) attend in-country English-medium schools or are sent abroad for their studies. These are the ones who take full advantage of job opportunities available in the country.

Proper Education Curricula: We also need to evaluate if our school/university curricula meet the industry needs. We have a lot secondary schools and universities in the country. I am not sure if these institutions coordinate with employers to determine the appropriate curricula for their students - if you ask me I think they don't.

Illegal Foreign Employees: I am glad the Magufuli government decided to crackdown on employers who hire foreign employee illegally in the country with no proper work permits. This may open the doors to our unemployed graduates.

Lack of Skills for Self Employment: I believe we can help reduce unemployment if we train our students entrepreneurial skills. We only hear leaders telling youths to employ themselves but these youths don't have any business skills. If I were the Minister for Education I would require business subjects (like bookkeeping, accounting, marketing, banking) to be taught (just like math, history, geography) from Primary to High School (as mandatory) and University (as electives). The Indians have been doing this for ages to their children (I know this firsthand because I had Indian friends in secondary school who always went to after-school business classes while I was playing soccer) and we can do this to the entire nation. Of-course someone needs to determine what subjects are taught when and at what level.

Insecurity Due to Youth Extreme Radicalization.
I am not going to mince words here. I will be blunt because this is a serious problem and most of the time people don't want to call a spade a spade. I am talking about radical religious movements the likes of Al-Shabab, Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra, Boko Haram, and all extreme Takfir groups. There is a huge (unfathomable) funding source from Middle-Eastern institutions that are funding these movements. The purpose of these groups is two-fold: political and religious.

Political motive: There is a genuine feeling that the West is trying to undermine these religious groups individually and in their countries. So some of these groups are fighting western powers using asymmetrical techniques, very similar to Gorilla fighters, of terrorism. They target western interests (like the shopping mall in Kenya) to instill fear. Unfortunately, often innocent civilians fall victims of such acts.

There is very little Tanzania can do about changing these political sentiments. All we can do here is to be ever vigilant in our security. It is incumbent upon all of us to say something if we see something unusual to the security organs.

Religious motive: In this case extreme radical (Takfir Sunni) Islam is trying to asserts its dominance over moderate Islam, Christianity (mfumo kristu), Shia Islam, and other non Muslims. This missionary work is very actively recruiting youths (especially unemployed youths).

For these extremists money is no object as such, they become natural magnets for many young people as well as well established institutions of moderate Islam. Often this recruitment starts at a religious level but soon the youths are enticed to join training camps and before you know it they are fighting the west (Political Motive).

At its extreme level, these groups regard any government that does not follow Islamic (Sharia) Law as infidels (governments made up of Kafirs - hence the groups are known as Takfirs, they can pronounce you on the fly as a kafir - without need of the opinion of scholars or Ulama).

Our only peaceful salvation here is to rely on our moderate Muslims in the country to reject there extremist views in distorting the peaceful moderate Islam. This is easier said than done because the amount of money being poured in the course of this missionary work is enormous. If we cannot defeat these extremists peacefully, I guess this is where our law enforcement organs come in.

I welcome your comments and critiques.

You've pointed out some very interesting inputs. I wonder why you got no replies on this..