Mathanzua
JF-Expert Member
- Jan 4, 2017
- 17,251
- 22,929
For many years, nuclear-escalation theory has believed that countries with atomic weapons were mostly exempt from attack because an aggressor could trigger another world war. Even relatively small states like Iran, Israel, Libya and North Korea have pursued nuclear arms to help discourage attacks by their larger and better-armed adversaries.
The threat of annihilation has usually protected nuclear-armed countries from large-scale attacks. Even though Ukraine isn't a nuclear power and is outgunned by Russia by far, it now controls at least 500 square miles of Russian territory!
Western leaders, military thinkers and nuclear theorists are currently worried about what these tense current events mean for prospects of Russian escalation, along with the future of war gaming. For now there is a need for review of the role nuclear weapons can play in deterrence.
According to Russia’s published nuclear doctrine, Moscow would only use atomic weapons if the country's sovereignty or territorial integrity were threatened. And while Ukraine occupies a chunk of Russian soil, Russia has taken no serious,probably because Kursk is not strategically vital. This suggests that Ukraine's unexpected attack, no matter how much it has humiliated the Kremlin, it has not crossed a Russian red line.
However, both ambiguity and uncertainty are crucial to nuclear gamesmanship.
For now,no one truly knows the Russian red line because the country has "never given any precise red lines." Because of this uncertainty, a Russias' adversary may suddenly find out that the red line has already been crossed, and face sudden retaliation from Russia.
The wild card is that the Kremlin and President Vladimir Putin seem to think of threats to his regime as sovereign threats to Russia.
Events affect deterrence calculations.Because of this,the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has announced that the Kremlin would adjust its' nuclear doctrine based on an analysis of current events and the West's role, confirming a pledge Putin has made several times.
Ukraine's invasion of Kursk suggests that taboos can be broken without repercussions. By invading Kursk,Ukraine is trying to convince the White House that it should be provided with long range ,more lethal and more precise U.S. weapons to attack Russia.However, many Western officials are still wary because according to them, Putin is unpredictable.
The threat of annihilation has usually protected nuclear-armed countries from large-scale attacks. Even though Ukraine isn't a nuclear power and is outgunned by Russia by far, it now controls at least 500 square miles of Russian territory!
Western leaders, military thinkers and nuclear theorists are currently worried about what these tense current events mean for prospects of Russian escalation, along with the future of war gaming. For now there is a need for review of the role nuclear weapons can play in deterrence.
According to Russia’s published nuclear doctrine, Moscow would only use atomic weapons if the country's sovereignty or territorial integrity were threatened. And while Ukraine occupies a chunk of Russian soil, Russia has taken no serious,probably because Kursk is not strategically vital. This suggests that Ukraine's unexpected attack, no matter how much it has humiliated the Kremlin, it has not crossed a Russian red line.
However, both ambiguity and uncertainty are crucial to nuclear gamesmanship.
For now,no one truly knows the Russian red line because the country has "never given any precise red lines." Because of this uncertainty, a Russias' adversary may suddenly find out that the red line has already been crossed, and face sudden retaliation from Russia.
The wild card is that the Kremlin and President Vladimir Putin seem to think of threats to his regime as sovereign threats to Russia.
Events affect deterrence calculations.Because of this,the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has announced that the Kremlin would adjust its' nuclear doctrine based on an analysis of current events and the West's role, confirming a pledge Putin has made several times.
Ukraine's invasion of Kursk suggests that taboos can be broken without repercussions. By invading Kursk,Ukraine is trying to convince the White House that it should be provided with long range ,more lethal and more precise U.S. weapons to attack Russia.However, many Western officials are still wary because according to them, Putin is unpredictable.
