For generations,
Tanzania has been a beacon of peace and stability in a region characterised by civil unrest. It has stood out as a wise kid among more restless neighbours.
In 1979, for instance, the town of Moshi hosted critical Ugandan talks that led to elections in 1980. In 1993 and then 2000, Arusha was the site of peace negotiations that led to momentous accords in Rwanda and Burundi respectively. More recently, former Tanzanian presidents Jakaya Kikwete and Benjamin Mkapa have taken leading roles in mediation efforts around the continent. In fact, there are barely any countries nearby in which Tanzania has not played a vital part in resolving conflicts.
It is all the more alarming therefore that it is now Tanzania itself that is on the brink of crisis.
This potential is at its most severe in the semi-autonomous Zanzibar. In Tanzania’s general elections in October 2015, initial results suggested the opposition Civic United Front (CUF) had won on the island when the electoral commission – under pressure from the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) – suddenly annulled the process. The opposition claimed that alleged concerns over irregularities were fabricated and boycotted the
re-run of the vote in 2016. The CCM candidate therefore won easily with 91.4% and presided over the island ever since, protected by state security forces.
With elections scheduled for October 2020, Zanzibar could erupt. Zanzibaris are known for resisting oppression and will not stand by if they believe their votes are being stolen again. This could lead to a security crackdown and spiralling unrest. It is therefore deeply worrying that the government is already trying to prevent voters on the island from registering and harassing opposition leaders in an attempt to tilt the playing field.
In November 2019, the ruling CCM deployed a range of tactics to subvert
civic elections. Among other things, it blocked 96% of the opposition parties’ candidates from contesting seats, leaving it to win
99.77% of the votes according to the official results.
The government is ready to repeat these tactics and more. Its manipulation of the whole civic election process was the culmination of four years of
oppressive policies in which it rode roughshod over political and civil rights. Its success in doing so – combined with opposition leaders’ failure to mount effective protests in response – will have emboldened it to do it all again in October 2020, unless they are stopped.
If the elections aren't free and fair, Tanzania will be a one-party state - African Arguments