Why Magufuli administration misses the point on Government splurge

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Findings show that basic needs poverty has declined from 47% to 21% in urban areas, and 33% in rural
areas. In the same period, the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi1
(CCM) has lost about 35%
support but enjoys considerable followings in regions with high incidences of basic needs poverty,
although even in these areas elections are becoming increasingly competitive. Furthermore, while
the ruling party, CCM appear to lose support, its macro economy policies have steered the
economy to grow at an average of 5.8% per year in the review period but growth failed to reduce
basic needs poverty in rural areas. Experts predict a sustained economic growth in the near future,
but skeptical on poverty reduction. This paper recommends that for any party to enjoy sustainable
support it will have to address woes of rural voters. Given the increases access to media and civil
societies, it will no longer be possible to rely on ignorance of rural voters to win elections.
[emoji2398] 2014 AESS Publications. All Rights Reserve

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4. CONCLUSION
Voting behaviors in the four general elections under multiparty era in Tanzania indicate that
voters drift away from the ruling party. On average, the ruling party is losing popularity at 8.8% per
general election. Interestingly, the ruling party continues to enjoy considerable support in regions
with high incidences of poverty than in low incidences. However, poor regions are also in rural
areas where there are relatively little penetration of mass media and civil societies. In the same
period under review, the economy recorded substantial growth and averaging 5.8% per year, and
Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) has been increasing at 8.5% per annum. However, poverty levels
especially in the rural areas where majority of the voters work and live declined very little. It could
be that voters are punishing the ruling elites for dismissal performance in poverty reduction. The
prospect indicates a sustained economic growth, but with poor impact on poverty reduction. If
voters vote according to the poverty trends, and the current trend continues, it will take three
general elections for the ruling party to get below 50% of the total votes cast. This means, that for
the ruling party to have assurance of clinging to power, it will have to address the plight of rural
voters. For the opposition, they will have to work hard to convince rural folks that they can deliver

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PARTY MATTERS: THE INSTITUTIONAL ORIGINS OF COMPETITIVENESS AND
HEGEMONY IN POST-COLD WAR AFRICA
Yonatan L. Morse, M.A.
Thesis Advisor: Marc M. Howard, Ph.D.

ABSTRACT

What explains differences in electoral authoritarian outcomes? Why are some regimes
able to utterly dominate elections with comparatively lower levels of fraud and coercion, while
in other cases regimes can only muster slim vote margins? What explains differences in the
competitiveness and hegemony of electoral authoritarian elections? This dissertation focuses
specifically on Africa’s former single-party regimes and argues that differences in party capacity
developed under single-party rule is a primary factor differentiating forms of electoral
authoritarianism. Through typological theorizing and case-studies of Tanzania, Kenya, and
Cameroon this project shows how single-party regimes that elevated the party as an important
decision-making institution, made credible investments into party institutionalization, and kept
open avenues for elite recruitment were less likely to experience elite defection during multiparty
elections. Likewise, single-party regimes that built strong party-affiliated mobilizing structures
and engaged in wide practices of social incorporation were able to rely on persistently large
electoral support. In the absence of these party capacities regimes were forced to rely more
heavily on fraud and a range of contingent factors to survive. By differentiating these forms of
electoral authoritarianism and their variant institutional underpinnings this dissertation has
significance importance for our understanding of the durability of authoritarianism and the
potential path toward democratization.

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The second challenge of differentiating forms of electoral authoritarianism is
compounded by the fact that scholars have used inconsistent language. The terms “competitive”
and “hegemonic” are often used but the distinctions are unclear.12 For instance, Levitsky and
Way consider a regime hegemonic if opposition parties are physically precluded from competing
or overly repressed. All other regimes are considered either stable or unstable electoral
authoritarian, depending on whether there has been turnover or not.13 By contrast, Roessler and
Howard infer from competitive authoritarianism a sense of instability and a tendency either to tip
toward hegemonic electoral authoritarianism or electoral democracy. Competitive electoral
authoritarianism is distinguished from hegemonic authoritarianism by a power threshold of 70%
incumbent vote-share.14 Other scholars like Beatriz Magaloni and Kenneth Greene use the terms
“hegemonic” and “dominant” interchangeably to connote electoral regimes with at least twenty
years longevity.15 Others use different terminology to convey similar variation. Hadenius and
Teorell use the categories “dominant party multiparty” and “pure limited multiparty,” while in
the African context Nicolas van de Walle distinguishes “status quo regimes” from “contested
autocracies”.16
The fact that so many scholars find it important to note these differences is reflective of
its theoretical importance. The term competitiveness appears as a key underspecified factor that
can mean a number of things. One the one hand competitiveness can refer to the actual structure
of contestation – the rules and restrictions that shape whether voters can actually translate their
preferences into an actual electoral outcome. This is usually captured by looking at measures of

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In recent years there has also been some debate over what set of variables matter more -
factors that are proximal to the election itself or the broader institutional and structural features
of the regime.26 Proximal factors might include the regime’s use of fraud and coercion to win
elections.27 For instance, William Case notes that regimes can employ “clumsy” versus “skilled”
forms of manipulation. Incumbents have no way of knowing whether their use of fraud will
backfire or not, which can lead to deep cuts in public legitimacy. However, this seems to be
placing the metaphoric “cart in front of the horse.” It is just as likely that regimes that employ
skilled forms of electoral manipulation are less likely to require clumsy forms to begin with and
can win elections by other means. For this reason Andreas Schedler’s attempt to statistically test
the correlation between fraud and democratization leads him to the conclusion that the
relationship is highly ambiguous and that that “elephant of endogeneity” lurks behind the
results.28

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How to Deal with Conflict

‘The Bible tells us to love our neighbours, and also to love our enemies; probably because they are generally the same people!’ wrote G.K. Chesterton.
Conflict is inescapable. Even for those of us who shy away from confrontation, it is impossible to avoid. As we go through life, we will inevitably encounter people with whom we will have conflict. Additionally, for a Christian, an internal conflict exists between the desires of our sinful nature and the Holy Spirit.
We may also experience conflict when we stand up for the truth within the church, or when we engage with the prevailing culture. Even in the UK, a country that has traditionally been seen as ‘Christian’, the culture is becoming increasingly hostile towards the Christian faith.


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Psalm 109:1-20

Conflict with those who hate and attack us

David cries out to God ‘whom I praise’ (v.1). He is in conflict with ‘wicked and deceitful people who have opened their mouths against’ him (v.2) with ‘lying tongues’ (v.2) and ‘words of hatred’ (v.3): ‘They repay me evil for good and hatred for my friendship’ (v.5).
It is deeply distressing when people we love and consider our friends attack us. Their accusations and words of hatred cause deep pain.
David’s response in this psalm is to bring his pain and struggles to God. In the midst of it all he declares, ‘I am a man of prayer’ (v.4), and he pours out his heart to God. In no uncertain terms he calls on God, not to remain silent, but rather, to pay them back.
Some of what he says can be difficult to read and reflects just how difficult it is to forgive without God’s help. It is at odds with Jesus’ call to ‘love [our] enemies and pray for those who persecute [us]’ (Matthew 5:44). If you are being unfairly attacked, follow David’s example of prayerfulness and honesty before God. At the same time ask God to help you overcome bitterness and hatred.

Lord, help me when I come into conflict not to react in the flesh, but to respond in the Spirit.



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Galatians 5:7-26

Conflict with heresy and in our hearts

Conflict and confrontation are never easy, but they are a necessary part of courageous leadership. Paul finds himself in conflict with the ‘agitators’. He is passionate about the truth, and uses very strong language about them because they are leading the church astray.
In effect, he says that if they are so keen on cutting that part of a man’s anatomy through circumcision, they may as well ‘go the whole way’ and castrate themselves (v.12). It is rather surprising language to find in the New Testament! But the truth matters, and Paul is prepared to face conflict in order to defend the truth.
Paul then moves on to the conflict between the sinful nature and the Holy Spirit. The Holy Spirit and the sinful nature ‘are in conflict with each other’ (v.17).
The whole point of Paul’s argument has been to stress freedom. However, freedom from sin does not mean freedom to sin.
Paul contrasts two forms of slavery: legalism (slavery to law) and licence (slavery to self). You are liberated from these. Avoid both legalism and licence: ‘Just make sure that you don’t use this freedom as an excuse to do whatever you want to do and destroy your freedom. Rather, use your freedom to serve one another in love’ (vv.13–14, MSG).
That is true freedom – not the absence of morality, but the freedom to serve others in love: to love your neighbour as yourself (v.14). If we continue responding to conflict as the world does, ‘biting and devouring each other’, we will destroy each other (v.15).
Paul lists four examples of realms in which this conflict operates:

Sexual sin: ‘repetitive, loveless, cheap sex; a stinking accumulation of mental and emotional garbage; frenzied and joyless grabs for happiness’ (v.19, MSG)

Religious sin: ‘trinket gods; magic-show religion; paranoid loneliness’ (v.20a, MSG)

Societal sin: ‘cutthroat competition; all-consuming-yet-never-satisfied wants; a brutal temper; an impotence to love or be loved; divided homes and divided lives; small-minded and lopsided pursuits; the vicious habit of depersonalizing everyone into a rival’ (v.20b, MSG)

Sins of excess: ‘uncontrolled and uncontrollable addictions; ugly parodies of community’ (v.21, MSG)

Do not gratify these desires. Rather, live and be ‘led by the Spirit’ (v.18). If you choose to live by the Spirit, you will not follow the lusts of the flesh that continually tempt us. Instead, you will produce the fruit of the Spirit: ‘love, joy, peace, patience, kindness, goodness, faithfulness, gentleness and self-control’ (vv.22–23). As my friend, Michael Timmis, wrote to me, ‘The way I define love is by using the fruit of the Spirit, which starts with love. I believe that joy is love rejoicing, peace is love at rest, patience is love waiting, kindness is love interacting, goodness is love initiating, faithfulness is love keeping its word, gentleness is love empathising, and self-control is love resisting temptation.’
These are the characteristics we see in Jesus. Paul continues, ‘Those who belong to Christ Jesus have crucified the sinful nature with its passions and desires’ (v.24). The temptation is always to go back. But ‘since we live by the Spirit, let us keep in step with the Spirit’ (v.25).
As far as possible, avoid personal conflict: ‘Let us not become conceited, provoking and envying each other’ (v.26).
Now that the Holy Spirit lives in you, involve him in all your decisions and follow his prompting. If you are thinking, saying or doing something that makes you feel uncomfortable inside, that may be the prompting of the Holy Spirit to stop. On the other hand, when you make a decision and feel a deep sense of peace, know that that comes from keeping in step with the Holy Spirit.

Lord, help me to deal with conflict wisely, to keep in step with the Holy Spirit.



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Isaiah 47:1-49:7

Conflict with culture

Like many today, the people of God often found themselves in a culture with very different standards from their own. You are not called to withdraw from the culture, but you are called to be distinctive. Live a counter-cultural life and you will have a powerful impact on the culture for good.
The people of God found themselves in a cruel society (Babylon) that ‘showed them no mercy’ (47:6). A very proud culture (vv.8–9) who indulged in the magic arts, astrology and horoscopes (vv.9b,12–13).
It is very hard to live a totally counter-cultural life.
Isaiah then addresses Israel. He says that if only they had paid attention to the Lord and his commands, ‘Your peace would have been like a river, your righteousness like the waves of the sea’ (48:18).
Despite all Israel’s failings and problems, God did not give up on his plans and purposes for ‘my servant Israel, in whom I will display my splendour’ (49:3). We read of another ‘servant of the Lord’ (see BiOY Day 260), this time an individual, who would ‘bring Jacob back to him, and gather Israel to himself’ (v.5). God’s original purposes for his servant Israel would be revealed and fulfilled in him. This points ahead to Jesus. He was an Israelite sent to Israel. He was totally identified with his nation, yet distinct from it.
The first task of the servant is to declare the truth. His mouth is ‘like a sharpened sword’ (v.2). God spoke to one nation and told them to tell all the others. The second task of the servant is to make God visible, ‘in whom I will display my splendour’ (v.3). The third task is to be a blessing to the world: ‘I’m setting you up as a light for the nations so that my salvation becomes global!’ (v.6, MSG).
Isaiah then gives us a glimpse of how the servant will achieve this. In a foreshadowing of Isaiah 53, he speaks of ‘him who was despised and abhorred by the nation’ (49:7). The servant glorifies God (v.3). Now God glorifies the servant: ‘Kings will see you and rise up, princes will see and bow down, because of the Lord, who is faithful, the Holy One of Israel, who has chosen you’ (v.7).
This was fulfilled when the Magi came to worship Jesus (Matthew 2:1–12). It has been fulfilled again and again over the last 2,000 years as kings, emperors, presidents and prime ministers have bowed the knee to Jesus.
Israel did not succeed, but Jesus did. Now, it is our task to be the servant of the Lord. Paul and Barnabas quoted this verse: ‘This is what the Lord has commanded us: “I have made you a light for the Gentiles, that you may bring salvation to the ends of the earth”’ (Isaiah 49:6; Acts 13:47).

Lord, help me to engage with the culture around me, speaking the truth in love, displaying your splendour and being a light to those around me.



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Pippa Adds

Galatians 5:22–23
‘But the fruit of the Spirit is love, joy, peace, patience, kindness, goodness, faithfulness, gentleness and self-control.’
How are you doing today? We all need to keep working on each of these areas of our lives.


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