Why Magufuli has a shot on wooing Uganda to join his SGR

The problem with Magufuli is that, even when he is winning, he shoots himself in the foot.

Even if he is doing something that is fundamentally right, he bungles the implementation and presentation so badly the whole thing becomes wrong.

No nuance. Bulldoze everything.

Guess what? That is no way to run a country.
 
Toa mifano ili tuweze kuchangia, inawezekana una hoja nzuri, I can see it far.
 
Hehe, now who is emotional here..

When people make whole conversation of back nd forth based on the wrong facts.

South Sudan can never build a rail if it just ends up terminating in a landlocked country.
You guys seem to be missing something, look at the northern corridor sgr masterplan, it connects to both kigali and juba then it goes to mombasa. Uganda sgr connects with Kenya, that one is as good as done. The problem that comes next is what happens once the Kenyan Sgr reaches Kumpala, Uganda cannot construct both routes at the same time, so the dilemma was, do they construct the sgr from Kumpala downwards towards Rwanda first and link it with the Tanzania sgr that will also reach Rwanda, or do they first start with connecting to Juba. Uganda decided to go to juba first because it's more profitable, that meant that Rwanda would have had to wait until 2025 for the construction from kampala to kigali to start, and that was one of the reasons that Rwanda decided to concentrate on connecting with Tanzania instead of having to wait for Uganda,


So either way whether ug decides to connect with Rwanda first or South Sudan first, Uganda still connects with Kenya!

For a better understanding for you clueless people, Tz should not be celebrating on hearing Ug is to first connect with S.Sudan, that means Tz Sgr will not be PHYSICALLY connecting with Ug sgr anytime soon, you will be left with the much slower link of using the L.victoria connection.

Incase you don't get what am saying here is the map. The red line is the project we are talking about.the sgr in black that's part of the lapsset project which involves S.Sudan and Ethiopia but does not involve Uganda. The sgr that will bypass Ug and go directly to S.sudan is the lapsset rail that will terminate in Lamu. But this current mombasa sgr goes to Ug first then Ug takes it to S.Sudan, then afterwards Ug will construct another line southwards to Kigali and then Tz will be able to use her port to transport goods to Ug and S.sudan using a direct rail link

 
What you have explained is very true, but the fact is Uganda railway net work is very very unpredictable up to now, the section from Kampala to Malaba is the one which at least for now is under discussion, remember Museven is not comfortable to take a loan from China because of the conditions that direct Uganda to use the same construction company and all other rules and regulations that govern construction of Kenyan SGR, first is expensive per KM, second Uganda needs electrical while Kenyan is diesel, Museven wants to use competitive biding like Tanzania.

But even if Uganda manages to build from Malaba to Uganda, the next profitable route is Kampala to Juba, because of the trade volume between Uganda and South Sudan, if you compare with Uganda to Rwanda, but this route is not likely to be constructed in the near future because of the following reasons;
1)Uganda economy can't afford to take another loan after that of Malaba -Kampala
2)Volume of trade between Uganda and South Sudan is not enough to make this route profitable, good roads are enough for the next 20 years
3)Security in South Sudan is not good to allow this capital intensive project
4)South Sudan is not in position, financially and security wise to pay and implement this project at the moment, they have more important projects to start with, like roads, water, health, electricity and security
 
There are alot of speculations in your statements, it's like you are trying to predict the wheather without using any tools.

First, One of conditions set by Ug to connect with Kenya was that Kenyan route to be electrified by the time the sgr reaches kampala which Kenya already agreed to.

Second. Even if Uganda was to abandon Chinies loan, however they find the funds they can still connect with Kenya since the technology is standard gauge, bcoze among other reasons Kampala is much closer to Malaba than Kigali,
3. Uganda naturally trades more with Kenya than Tz,

4. There is a $1 billion road project funded by world Bank to connect Kenya with Juba so don't worry too much about s.sudan priorities
 
The problem is political insecurities of each of the EAC leaders themselves. They want the EAC for the benefit of cohorts rather than their respective citizenry. Just as there is no coordinated project planning locally whereby the construction of every thing from roads to bridges to airports is a product of presidential campaign promises; the same approach is applied to even regional integration issues. Therefore for any EAC related project to be implemented such as the SGR linking member States or an Oil pipeline, or a power sharing project etcetera; it must first meet the individual political aspirations of each of the Head's of state which are not synonymous with the collective long term interests of the people of the East African Community.
Without a full commitment to democracy, good governance, free and fair elections and justice for all the citizens of the EAC member states by the ruling class, the newly configured body will remain the pipedream of our Mugabes in this region of Africa.
 
The problem is too much sensitive with Tanzania at the extent that you fail get my points, there is no single area I have touched on business comparison between Uganda and Tanzania, all the timeI have been mentioning trade of volume between Uganda,South Sudan and Rwanda, I can understand why you refer Tanzania every time, cool down.

About Kenya to electrify its SGR, that is a day light dream, there is no country in the world can do that if it needs to build its economy, it is not first time for Kenyan leaders to play with brains of Kenyans, and unfortunately because most of Kenyans are very weak in reasoning, these leaders keep on talking nonsense to Kenyans
1)Why didn't they plan and build electrical railway from the start?
2)If electricity was not enough as they used to tell you, why didn't they opt to build electrical railway but to buy few diesel locomotive waiting for electrify?, because electrical railway can be used by diesel locomotives as well
3) Kenya has ordered many diesel locomotives enough for its needs, if it electrify its railway it will need to buy new electrical locomotives, that means there will be twice as many locomotives as it requires
4)Where Kenya will get that big amount of money, which is not less $3B, remember Chinese will manage your SGR untill they recover their money with interest, that is not less than 20 yrs.
 
The problem is obvious.. we are greedy and shortsighted..

We are building all these projects for legacy instead of interests of citizens of East Africa.

If only we were cooperating rather than competing.. imagine what we could do together.
 
SGR ya Tz hata haijaanza na haijulikani itaanza lini.
 
That's because am not a kid and I read between the lines. We all know what this is about and I answer the whole question and laid everything out so that you don't have to bother to ask the next question. So the Tanzania-ug business connection might not have been in your comment but the insinuation of the same was all over it.
If not so then why would you have bothered to say that Ug was not comfortable with chinies loan conditions and that they might opt for competitive bidding like tz... What was the point of saying that? I

There are many uncertain things, but one thing is for sure, that come rain come sunshine Uganda will build a rail connecting to the sea . So if Tanzania is not to be included in the discussion then there is really no point in saying all those things you have said, coz whether they do competitive bidding,take a loan,pay it themselves at the end of the day, a rail will be built to the coast and if the only coast up for discussion is in Kenya, then that will be Mombasa!
 
I have said earlier, you must be very sensitive with Tanzania, it is very much understandable, but also don't forget to increase your sensitivity when you listen to your leaders like Macharia, Charles Kater, Amina Mohamed, Najib Balala and likes, because most of the time do speak nonsense plans and projects which have taken Kenya economy where it is today.
 
MAKANJAMNA said:
The problem is obvious.. we are greedy and shortsighted..

We are building all these projects for legacy instead of interests of citizens of East Africa.

If only we were cooperating rather than competing.. imagine what we could do together.
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That is very good question if you direct to Kenyans, especially their leaders, why were they in hurry to plan and build diesel railway while they knew there were no enough electricity, they are telling us now that after three years from now they will have enough electricity, why didn't decide to wait a little bit, Tanzania and Uganda have less electricity than Kenya, but they opted for electrical trains, now Kenyan leaders are awakening but is too late already.
 
Ask the ethiopians, one and a half years later, the rail is still not running! Mind you they have more electricity than kenya!
 
very good anylsis
 
Macharia -dont really like him. But even with all his shortcommings, Kenya has been leading the eastern african region in infrusteucture projects for 4 years in a row..and is now 2ndd in Africa in logistics.

Charles keter- don't like him too, lost the ug pipeline, but not enterly his fault alone (insecurity,bad timing on Lamu port,alshabaab..etc) on the other side 70% of oil will now be going through pipeline thanks to a $500million pipeline to be finished in Dec.

The other two not really directly responsible for economy, their good work depends on how the country is driven by someone else
 
Kafrican said:
Ask the ethiopians, one and a half years later, the rail is still not running! Mind you they have more electricity than kenya!
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Kafrican, I have one question would like to ask you, please be honest, I am not trying to do any thing behind you, why Kenyans don't prefer to think critically and rationally to many issues?, can you prove to me that Ethiopian train to Djibouti is not working?
 
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