A Run- off Highly Probable In The Next Elections- IPSOS

[Sammuel999]

While NASA is perceived to have a headstart in the elections the reality on the ground is that they should be utterly worried by their numbers. I come from Busia county so I will base my observations from this great county.
In the 2013 elections Raila got 85.62% the highest in the former western Province, MDVD managed 8.42% while Uhuru managed a paltry 3.71% while the rest garnered a mere 1%.Fast foward to 2017 while the numbers are hugely in favour of Raila various issues call for concern and might lead to Uhuru polling between 15-25% of the vote or even more, no mean feat for such a NASA stronghold. The following are my reasons why NASA should not sit pretty satisfied in Busia county;

1.Shambolic ODM nominations, due to the bungled nominations a hugely unpopular governor at least in most of the subcounties 5 out 7 and even in his Teso backyard, openly rigged the elections and this did not sit down well with the majority of the electorates, this could prove fatal for Raila as the protest votes could shove up Uhuru's numbers. The nominations also robbed Raila an eloquent campaigner:Otuoma who was an integral in his campaign in 2013, what this portends for Raila is only a matter of time.

2. Lose of Ababu Namwamba to Jubilee. Love him or hate him, the eloquent Ababu captures crowds with his eloquence, though aligned to Uhuru in a deeply Raila stronghold he attracts multitudes whenever he sets out to campaign away from his Budalangi backyard, people just go to his rallies to listen to Ababu Smart talk. He was Raila pointman in 2013 and his shift to Jubilee takes substantial votes to Uhuru . While is common knowledge that he has already bagged in Budalangi seat as no serious candidate can match his development record and political eloquence, what remains to be seen is can he bring in Uhuru more votes from the larger Busia county other than the 30-40% from his constituency, Budalangi? only time will tell.

3.Uhuru development record, while NASA brigade is busy rubbishing Jubilee track record the results on the ground are much different from electricity connection to the average villager who had no hopes of ever getting connected to the grid to various tarmac roads launched including, the work in progress Busia Malaba road, the first tarmac road in Teso. The lifechanging Ksh 1billion Sigiri bridge, which has been completed, that connects Bunyala North and South and cuts the distance between the two from the current 100km to 1km is a great Jubilee market tool especially in Budalangi.

4.Effects of the two Jubilee MPs in Teso. MPs Odera and Emase from Teso are a reality check for NASA, with their steeling development records they gave the capacity to bring in some destabilising votes to Jubilee fold.

With all these reasons plus many more reasons without a serious campaign by NASA in Busia county Uhuru will set to benefit and take a reasonable chunk from Busia, with cut throat local politics overshadowing the presidential politics, a good strategy by Jubilee will give them a good harvest as the assuming NASA will get a reality check come 8/8.

There were shambolic Jubilee Nominations in
Baringo
North Eastern
Laikipia
Kajiado
Meru
Uasin Gishu and
Nakuru too.....fyi NAKURU isnt a jubilee stronghold anymore Wait 8th mtashangaa

For every NASA critic u gve there is an equal jubilee Critic to give

 

[kennedy0000]

In 2013
Uhuru Got
6.3mn votes
Only 8000 pple to get him to
50% + 1 to avoid Runoff

Raila and Kalonzo Got
5.6mn votes

Mudavadi got 900k

Btw let me make you pple realize something

Most people born between

1993-1999 were not able to vote in 2013

But will be able to vote in 2017

Population increase has been seen in
Nyanza, western, Rift valley Coast During the Same Period.

Majority of Kenyans 75% of Kenyans are aged between 15-35yrs na hapo ilikuwa 2009 census

I like how Jubilee is opptimistic

But opposition Parties winning elections in Africa over the last two years is not because africans jave changed NOOOO

because Born 90s have started voting in Their leaders wacha jubilee wajibambe mm theory yangu ntakuja kui prove 8th/8th/17th by 12pm....

Ghanas Born 90s
Nigerias Born 90s (the majority)
South Africas
Gambia
Cape Verdes
Wote walifanya yao sasa wakenya waje watuongezee kura ..

Dynamics are very different in every country. Kenya is tribal and even most young guys are being whipped to toe the line.
Plus the young people you are talking about are still under their parents cares (most of them). That means they will most likely not directly feel the rise in cost of living. But they can see the roads, bridges, railway, electricity etc.
So, when you tell these people that Jubilee has not performed, they really wonder.

 

[kennedy0000]

There were shambolic Jubilee Nominations in
Baringo
North Eastern
Laikipia
Kajiado
Meru
Uasin Gishu and
Nakuru too.....fyi NAKURU isnt a jubilee stronghold anymore Wait 8th mtashangaa

For every NASA critic u gve there is an equal jubilee Critic to give

The biggest undoing with Nasa is wishful thinking. And this is what's takes them to the street every time they lose. You have zero numbers to back up your claim, but you say it with a lot of certainty. I would expect that from politicians not their supporters.

 

[MK254]

Wewe MK254 stop!!

I like you too much bana


Not because the cant see an alternative


Most pple are voting Tribe pure and Simple tuache kuweka low jibe at opposition.

Kuna 8 other presidential candidates kwa race Alternative ziko!!

Bro then help me make sense out of this, of the Kenyans interviewed
47% chose Jubilee
42% chose NASA
That leaves 11% shared between the undecided and independent candidates

Of Kenyans interviewed 71% believe country headed towards the wrong direction, you'd expect this whole number to switch automatically to either NASA or independents as alternative, but definitely they didn't see any hope there. Most are choosing to stay the course and hope for the best, especially it's not all gloomy with Jubilee, there are quite a huge list of things that can be seen and touched.

Jubilee have really failed in corruption, it pains me right to the bone, but honestly who else has the audacity to fight the vice. Look at governors, they have messed our counties with corruption but Raila has not raised a finger at any of his own for obvious reason that they are funding his activities. We have seen people like Oparanya chest thumping all along with impunity, senate all institutions have failed to tame him. The same goes for almost all of them.

Yes Kenya is tribal to the core, and it's always easier to make or break the country based on these arithmetic, but believe me, deep inside these tribes considered as NASA stronghold, there are a pocket of people who will vote Jubilee simply because of what they can see. Electricity into their homes, roads, waived exam fees, waived maternity fee and so on. Some of these things have touched them right into their villages which are illuminating.

But anyway, like I've always reiterated, though I will vote for Jubilee, but if Raila wins I'll always give him my support and will be always coming back here in JF to post any project he will initiate. I hope to God he completes the SGR to Malaba and doesn't get started with tail chasing activities.

 

[Ian Cruz]

We know there are ICT people assigned duties online - to campaign for the incumbent etc. You can write a million pages about Uhuruto but one thing is clear - Baba will Win if the elections are not rigged. Uhuruto will not get 50 plus 1. Given free and fair elections - Baba has the numbers to reach 50 plus 1, NO DOUBT

Just shut up this nonsense of yours,we know NASA is using dubious and underhand methods to paint JUBILEE in bad light but we know the truth!!!if NASA is given a chance it will do NOTHING! HOW MANY YEARS HAVE THEY BEEN IN GOVERNMENT WITH NO TRACK RECORD??JUBILEE,WITH OUR NUMBERS FROM MT KENYA WILL WIN FAIR SQUARE,MARK MY WORDS....!!!

 

[Sammuel999]

Dynamics are very different in every country. Kenya is tribal and even most young guys are being whipped to toe the line.
Plus the young people you are talking about are still under their parents cares (most of them). That means they will most likely not directly feel the rise in cost of living. But they can see the roads, bridges, railway, electricity etc.
So, when you tell these people that Jubilee has not performed, they really wonder.

I dnt disagree with anything u have said ....but kenya is an ethnocratic society

Hata kama wanaona reli they will still vote tribal!!....

 

[Sammuel999]

The biggest undoing with Nasa is wishful thinking. And this is what's takes them to the street every time they lose. You have zero numbers to back up your claim, but you say it with a lot of certainty. I would expect that from politicians not their supporters.

Okay 68 day sio far...
I will take back all i have said then...
I hope u will too

 

[Sammuel999]

kennedy0000
Are this the same Kenyans u say are under their parents?
Free internet
Parody accounts

 

[Sammuel999]

Ipsos polls ni word on Ground
Twitter poll ni online

 

[Sammuel999]

 

[kennedy0000]

kennedy0000
Are this the same Kenyans u say are under their parents?
Free internet
Parody accounts
View attachment 517046

Ekuru Auokot will get 18%?
I'm sure you're clever enough not to trust internet (unscientific) polls. They lean towards the makeup of the fans or followers of that particular account.

 

[Metsada]

Just shut up this nonsense of yours,we know NASA is using dubious and underhand methods to paint JUBILEE in bad light but we know the truth!!!if NASA is given a chance it will do NOTHING! HOW MANY YEARS HAVE THEY BEEN IN GOVERNMENT WITH NO TRACK RECORD??JUBILEE,WITH OUR NUMBERS FROM MT KENYA WILL WIN FAIR SQUARE,MARK MY WORDS....!!!

Numbers from central Kenya??? Your (Kamauz and Njorogez) arrogance is cancer that will send you to an eternal grave come August 2017. In the absence of rigging, there is no way Jubilee can get 50 plus 1 from Central alone. I will not argue with your further because I have lived in Kenya long enough to understand the behaviour and attitude of KAMAUZ AND NJOROGEZ toward other tribes. BABA TOSHA

 

[Sanmoidy254]

There were shambolic Jubilee Nominations in
Baringo
North Eastern
Laikipia
Kajiado
Meru
Uasin Gishu and
Nakuru too.....fyi NAKURU isnt a jubilee stronghold anymore Wait 8th mtashangaa

For every NASA critic u gve there is an equal jubilee Critic to give

I am very specific about the county am talking about, while each county is unique and has its own peculiarities, from my analysis Jubilee will have a better performance in former western Province counties than it did in 2013 . Shambolic nominations were in parts of Jubilee strongholds but nothing compares that to the degree of 'shambolism' witness in NASA's. Most strong opponents especially in Busia county are fighting for their own races not bothered about campaigning for RAO. With an inept governor expecting Raila to drum up his support at the expense of his presidency you will see a substantial voter revolt. In fact instead of generalising issues my observation was very specific to Busia county.

 

[Juakali1980]

Two months to elections and both sides have not come out categorically, to tell Kenyans what they intend to do except for one item on each end.
Jubilee promises free secondary tuition. NASA says they will cap and reduce rental charges of housing.
Hawa wanasiasa wanatubeba utoto. I can't believe the only thing we are discussing on national TV is tribal and regional numbers. Such bull...

And who has been in power for the last five years??? dont say NASA..So far we know the record of JUPILOOTERS..

 

[Bishop Hiluka]

YOU MR.KIKUYU "OPERATIVE" - YOU BRING THAT TOPIC HERE SO AS TO GATHER OPINIONS OF JF TANZANIANS SO THAT YOU COULD USE THEM TO WRITE A REPORT TO NAIROBI??? THAT WOULDN'T WORK MY FRIEND. WE KNOW FOR A FACT THAT IF ELECTIONS ARE NOT RIGGED THEN NASA WILL WIN IN THE FIRST ROUND - NO DOUBT ABOUT THAT. RAO HAS THE NUMBERS AND WE KNOW IPSOS COOK DATA FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE INCUMBENT - BRACE YOURSELF

Why using CAPITAL letters?... It looks like... oh, forget it...

 

[kennedy0000]

And who has been in power for the last five years??? dont say NASA..So far we know the record of JUPILOOTERS..

And Raila has fallen from Mars?
The record of every person on both sides is known.
Coup, molasses, kazi kwa vijana, Triton, Dominion farms, Tokyo, Goldenberg, Cemetery, Maize scandal, Health scandal etc.
It is Kenyans to decide which thief serves their best interest.

 

[Sammuel999]

And Raila has fallen from Mars?
The record of every person on both sides is known.
Coup, molasses, kazi kwa vijana, Triton, Dominion farms, Tokyo, Goldenberg, Cemetery, Maize scandal, Health scandal etc.
It is Kenyans to decide which thief serves their best interest.

Hold up!!
Coup????

Moi Deserves much worse like Prison.....they were assisting this country then!!....

If they stage a coup right now hata mm ntawapinga but in 1982!! That was deserved ...

 

[kennedy0000]

Hold up!!
Coup????

Moi Deserves much worse like Prison.....they were assisting this country then!!....

If they stage a coup right now hata mm ntawapinga but in 1982!! That was deserved ...

Moi was barely 4 years into office. And historically those were his best performing years.
Raila and co. were simply power-hungry and were trying to replicate what was happening in other Africa countries here in Kenya.

 

[Juakali1980]

And Raila has fallen from Mars?
The record of every person on both sides is known.
Coup, molasses, kazi kwa vijana, Triton, Dominion farms, Tokyo, Goldenberg, Cemetery, Maize scandal, Health scandal etc.
It is Kenyans to decide which thief serves their best interest.

YOU FORGOT THE KENYATTA FAMILY LAND GRAB IN RIFT VALLEY,COAST...HIS DISABLED SISTA AND COUSIN STEALING SICK PEOPLES MONEY....JUBILOOTERS

 

[Juakali1980]

And Raila has fallen from Mars?
The record of every person on both sides is known.
Coup, molasses, kazi kwa vijana, Triton, Dominion farms, Tokyo, Goldenberg, Cemetery, Maize scandal, Health scandal etc.
It is Kenyans to decide which thief serves their best interest.

omollosview.com/blog/2015/07/03/how-odinga-acquired-the-kisumu-molasses-plant/