AGOA: Kuanguka kwa Uuzaji wetu soko la nje

[Dilunga]

Linki ingine hiyo, which shows a decline on our exports and an increase of trade imbalance in the last 3 years!

Huu ni uchumi wa Professor Maji Marefu, Voodoo economics!

Umeswalisha kwa nini AGOA haijasaidia. Tuonyoshe biashara na US ilivyokuwa kabla na baada ya AGOA kuanza.

Usiweke data za juzi kwenye mporomoko wa uchumi. Unataka kutuchezea karata tatu mchana mchana. Ulaumu.

Na usighafirishwe na mdai data, mdai maelezo ya kichumi yaliyonyooka, na lugha zisizopinda. Hoji, jibu bila kulia.

Tuonyeshe hapa, tafadhali, kuwa biashara na US kabla ya AGOA ilikua ahueni kuliko baada ya AGOA.

 

[LazyDog]

Kishoka, don't waste your time inviting Tanzanian to discuss this topic.


....
Si umeona hata kwenye JF kuna thread zote hadi ya mapenzi; lakini sijaona Business to business (B2B); ambapo watanzania kwa WaTanzania wangeweza Ku-Network from different geographical positioning na kufanya mambo!

This topic is among the best to discuss!

Wewe IO ndio dhihirisho la kansa ya Watanzania, rahisi kuchonga na kulonga na kunyoshea. Matendo, sifuri.

Kama jamvi halina mada muhimu bali "ya mapenzi" kwa nini hukuanzisha?? Huna sense of initiative??

Pengine ni kweli kwamba yeye matendo sifuri. Hata hivyo ni bora ameweza kutambua na kunyooshea, kuliko kuwa matendo sifuri na vile vile ashindwe hata kunyooshea.

Upo uwezekano pia kwamba, huko offline aliko, tayari ameunda network ya B2B na wengine, kufanya mambo. Kama sivyo, maoni uliyotoa yatakuwa ni tofali lingine kwenye ujenzi wa fikra zake.

 

[Rev. Kishoka]

Huu ni uchumi wa Professor Maji Marefu, Voodoo economics!

Umeswalisha kwa nini AGOA haijasaidia. Tuonyoshe biashara na US ilivyokuwa kabla na baada ya AGOA kuanza.

Usiweke data za juzi kwenye mporomoko wa uchumi. Unataka kutuchezea karata tatu mchana mchana. Ulaumu.

Na usighafirishwe na mdai data, mdai maelezo ya kichumi yaliyonyooka, na lugha zisizopinda. Hoji, jibu bila kulia.

Tuonyeshe hapa, tafadhali, kuwa biashara na US kabla ya AGOA ilikua ahueni kuliko baada ya AGOA.

Ulimiwe, uvuniwe, upikiwe utafuniwe na umezewe? mbona tayari nimeambtanisha datat na bado unazikwepa?

Nimefafanua AGOA iliundwa kwa makusudi ili kutoa upendeleo maalum. Sasa kama kabla ya AGOA tulikuwa tunadoda kutokana na Ujamaa, ni vipi baada ya AGOA bado tunadoda?

 

[Rev. Kishoka]

Okay Dilunga, I will give you this. In 2003, this was the US report on Tanzania. Angalia Imports na Exports number na kwa kuwa wewe ni Mchumi, piga ratio

Basic economic statistics for 2003:​

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GDP – US$ 9.6 billion

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Real GDP Growth – 5.6%

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GDP per capita – US$ 266

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Inflation – 4.4%

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Total Exports – US$ 1.142 billion

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Total Imports – US$ 1.972 billion

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Exports to U.S. – US$ 24.2 million

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Imports from U.S. – US$ 63.6 million

Primary destinations of exports, 2003 (with percent of total):
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Japan (11.8%)

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India (8.8%)

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Netherlands (8.3%)

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UK (5.5%)

Primary origins of imports, 2003 (with percent of total):
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South Africa (10.5%)

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China (9.7%)

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Japan (6.1%)

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India (5.9%)

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Market Challenges ​

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Doing business in Tanzania, like in any emerging market, has its challenges:
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Unreliable, high-cost power

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Undeveloped road and transportation systems

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Widespread corruption, particularly in customs and tax authorities.
• Largely unskilled local work force
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Halafu uje hizi takwimu za 2007

Basic economic statistics (2007 figures):
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GDP: USD 16.84 billion

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Real GDP growth rate: 7.1%

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GDP per capita: USD 440.8

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Inflation: 7.0 %

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Total Exports to the world: USD 2.021 billion

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Total Imports from the world: USD 4.827 billion

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Exports to the United States of America: USD 2.8 million

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Imports from the United States of America: USD 187.1 million

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Mean Exchange Rate: Tsh. 1,244 per USD 1

Source: Bank of Tanzania (BOT)
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Primary destinations of exports in 2007: ($ US millions)
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European Union (EU) and Switzerland:759.3

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Asia (China, Japan, India, UAE, Hong Kong): 378.2

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SADC: 300.8

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East African Community (EAC): 173.1

Source: Bank of Tanzania (BOT) and Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA)
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Primary origins of imports in 2007: ($ US millions)
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Asia (China, Japan, India, UAE, Hong Kong): 1960.2

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European Union (EU) and Switzerland: 1274.6

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SADC: 656.2

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USA: 187.1

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EAC: 106.6

Source: Bank of Tanzania (BOT)
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Natural Resources:
Tanzania has abundant natural resources, particularly for agriculture, mining, energy
and tourism. The country has 44 million hectares of arable fertile land. The great East
African lakes -Victoria, Tanganyika and Nyasa - are partly within Tanzania. The country's
natural features include the Ngorongoro crater, Lake Manyara, Mount Kilimanjaro (the
highest peak in Africa), the Indian Ocean coastline and the islands of Zanzibar, rivers
with hydroelectric potential, diamonds, gemstones, gold, coal, iron, nickel, forest
products, domesticated livestock, wildlife, fisheries and marine products, natural gas and
possibly oil.
Market Challenges ​

​

Return to top

​

​

​

​

​

​

As in any emerging market, doing business in Tanzania has its challenges:
• ​

​

Unreliable, high-cost power

​

​

• ​

​

Underdeveloped transport system

​

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Bureaucratic "red tape" and widespread corruption, particularly in customs and tax

authorities
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Limited availability of skilled labor
• Lack of technological resources
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Sasa nikuulize mtaalamu weye, in 4 years exports zetu kwenda USA zimeanguka kwa Dola Milioni 20 au 89% wakati imports zetu kutoka USA zimeongezeka kwa dola Milioni 123.5 au takriban 140%, ma factors zinazohusu challenges za Biashara hazijabadilika hata kama Inflation imebadilika by 3% huku GDP ya 2007 imeongezeka, ni vip[i basi useme ati this is bogus economy au ni za Maji Marefu?
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[Dilunga]

Okay Dilunga, I will give you this. In 2003, this was the US report...

Usiokote ka data ka 2003 ukalinganisha na kengine ka 2007, ukahitimisha AGOA haijasaidia. Nipe trend, mtiririko mzima, wa biashara kabla na wakati wa AGOA. Huwezi ukatoa toa madai yasiyo na substantiation ukategemea wote wataunga tela la shutuma. Namba.

Nilidhani ulisema umeshanipa data, umekuja na mpya? Wewe mwenyewe hauko comfortable na hizi data hizi, unakoteza kule, unadonoa hapa, unaunga unga zile, huna hakika.

 

[Rev. Kishoka]

Usiokote ka data ka 2003 ukalinganisha na kengine ka 2007, ukahitimisha AGOA haijasaidia. Nipe trend, mtiririko mzima, wa biashara kabla na wakati wa AGOA. Huwezi ukatoa toa madai yasiyo na substantiation ukategemea wote wataunga tela la shutuma. Namba.

Nilidhani ulisema umeshanipa data, umekuja na mpya? Wewe mwenyewe hauko comfortable na hizi data hizi, unakoteza kule, unadonoa hapa, unaunga unga zile, huna hakika.

Tatizo lako unataka historia utumie UKeynesian wako kusema "aaah, sasa nakubali"

Kama ni historia wewe si ulikuwa kityengoni Research department kule TZ na mpaka umesomea UChumi pamoja na kujifanya Linguistic? Sasa mbona hutupi takwimu za kile kitengo chako cha awali cha kazi ambacho kilikuwa kikiratibu Import/export za Tanzania? Fukua godoro lako utuletee zile takwimu ulikuwa ukizifanyia kazi kwanza!

 

[Rev. Kishoka]

Ewe Dilunga, haya basi kama kawaida, takwimu hizi hapa lete ngebe zaidi!

FTD - Statistics - Country Data - U.S. Trade Balance with Tanzania

 

[Mkandara]

Rav.Kishoka, IQ na Jokakuu...

Wakuu zangu bila shaka nyie ndio KATI ya watu ambao nimependa sana kusoma hoja zenu mara zote na kujaribu sana kuwa Objective pamoja na kwamba imani yangu kuhusu NDIVYO TULIVYO ibachukua nafasi kubwa sana..

Tuachane na Dilunga, nadhani mkuu hataki kukubali, hataki kuona ukweli kwamba Tanzania yetu pamoja na hizo AGOA kuwepo ndio kwanza tunashuka daraja na kupoteza nafasi kila mwaka ktk maisha bora ya wananchi wake kwani Ndivyo Tulivyo huwa na sababu au mchawi nje..

Mkuu Rev..umeuliza swali zuri sana, lakini imani ya kwamba Tanzania isafirishe mali USA kwa kutumia mfumo ule wa biashara wakati wa vita baridi hauwezi kufanya kazi tena leo..Ni wakati tanzania inabidi tutambue kwamba sasa hivi dunia ni ya Utandawazi (Globalization) na mchezo unachezwa na wananchi wenyewe sio tena kutegemea serikali ya Marekani au Wamarekani kuagiza mali zetu..

Moja ya mkakati mkubwa wa kiuchumi sasa hivi, ni wananchi wenyewe kuzalisha na kuuza mali zao nje sio tena kusubiri wenyeji kuagiza mali zenu. Na ndio maana unakuta Wachina wanaingia kila nchi duniani na kufungua biashara zao wakiwa sponsored na serikali yao.Hivyo mali zao zinaagizwa na Wachina wenyewe wenye soko wakiwa ndani Marekani..
Mfano mzuri wa exports zetu Marekani ni washikaji zangu kina Luhangisa.. wao wanachangia sehemu kubwa ya mauzo yetu Marekani (vinyago) kwa sababu wanachonga vinyago Tanzania kulingana na soko Marekani, kisha wao wenyewe ndio wanaagiza vinyago hivyo wakiwa Marekani na kuviuza..Biashara yao bila shaka inal;iupa na itaendelea kulipa kwani inakwenda na mfumo mzima wa biashara za leo..

Huu ni mfano mdogo sana wa biashara inavyofanyika leo hii lakini kosa kubwa la nchi yetu ni kwamba hao kina Luhangisa wanatumia nguvu yao wenyewe, na hawana support kubwa ya AGOA wala serikali kuhakikisha soko la vinyago vyao linakua zaidi na kwa sababu -Ndivyo Tulivyo..Angekuwa ni mzungu mwenye mradi huu basi tungelitazama mradi mzima kwa jicho tofauti kwamba tumepata soko Marekani bila kuelewa kwamba huyu mtu kawezeshwa vile vile na serikali yake..

Kwa hiyo kuanza kutazama uzalishaji nchini ni lazima tutazame jinsi tunavyoendesha biashara yetu kwa tunatumia mfumo wa miaka ya 70..Tusiewe kama mama muuza vitumbua ambaye kila siku huvinga kando ya barabara miaka nenda miaka rudi lakini hawezi kufungua kimgahawa mjini Pale Posta akauza Vitumbua kulingana na standard ya watu wa mjini..Leo hii tunashangaa Wachina wamejaa nchini hatujui kilichowaleta wakati huo huo imports zetu toka kwao by over 50% zinatokqa China.
Kila nchi tunayofanya nao biashara kwa asilimia kubwa utakuta wananchi wa nchi hiyo wana asilimia kubwa kuingia nchini..Iweje Mthailand aje Tanzania achukue Tanzanite kwenda kuziuza Hong Kong lakini sisi wenyewe tunashindwa kuchukua nafasi hiyo..Na kibaya zaidi hata hao Wathailand sii kwamba wamekuja na kitaji yao bali wamepatiwa mtaji toka kwao, leo ukija Tanzania viongozi wanasema wananchi maskini hawana Mitaji..
Hili neno Mtaji limekuwa ni nguvu ya mtu binafsi, Iba fanya utakavyofanya upate kupata mtaji lakini Bongo Mtaji hautoki ktk Financial Institutions ila vyombo hivi vipo kukusaidia tu pale ulipokwamba au kuweka dhamana..

Mwisho mkuu wangu hatuna haja ya kufikiria kuuza mazao yetu Marekani.. sooko lipo ndani na nchi jirani.. Tunaona wafanya biashara wa Kenya, Uganda wa Zimbabwe na nchi nyingine kibao wakija Tanzania kwa maelfu lakini huwezi kuona Watanzania kwa hesabu kubwa nchi hizo wakifanya biashara ama kuuza mali ambazo sisi tunazalisha..Upeo wetu wa biashara unaishia ktk mipaka yetu, yaani mwenye kutaka mali zetu aje Tanzania..nasi tutakwenda kununua mali tunazozitaka.. hivyo ndio maana unaona Imports zinazidi kuwa kuibwa kuliko Exports mwaka hadi mwaka..
nakumbuka kuona picha yako sehemu moja Ukila SUSHI... sasa kama Mjapan angesubiri soko la SUSHI bila yeye kufungua soko hilo Marekani bila shaka tusingejua kuna kitu samaki wabichi waliwa kwa vijiti (Sushi)....

 

[Dilunga]

Ewe Dilunga, haya basi kama kawaida, takwimu hizi hapa lete ngebe zaidi!

FTD - Statistics - Country Data - U.S. Trade Balance with Tanzania

Oh, umepata data zingine? Nimefungua hio link, nayaweka hapa barazani niliyoyakuta huko.

Mauzo ya nje kwa Marekani kwa miaka kumi, 2000 mpaka 2009 , katika mabilioni ya dola.

2000 - 32.3

2001 - 27.7

2002 - 24.7

2003 - 24.2

2004 - 24.2

2005 - 33.7

2006 - 34.6

2007 - 46.2

2008 - 55.8

2009 - 29.3

Sasa tusaidiane na hiyo trend, wapi pameongezeka, wapi pamepungua.

Naomba uwe mvumilivu, tutafika tu, japo wakina Mkandara wamekwambia uachane nami. Tuchambue hapa hiyo AGOA, maana hakuna sehemu nyingine yeyote ile katika media au forum Tanzania watachambua AGOA.

Again, kutoka katika data zako hizo hizo, nisaidie, nionyeshe kwamba biashara ilipungua wakati wa AGOA.

 

[Mkandara]

Dilunga,
Mkuu wangu inabidi kwanza ueuelewe Rev. Kishoka alikuwa na maana gani alipozungumzia imbalance ktk trade zetu na Marekani ktk mtazamo wa kiuchumi..
Hatuwezi kuwa na ongezeko kubwa la Imports toka nchi moja kwa asilimia zaidi ya 100 wakati Exports zetu zinaongezeka kwa asilimia 10 au 20..Hii inaonyesha wazi biashara ya nchi inaporomoka mwaka hadi mwaka na hata ukitazama Chat ya hao hao AGOA utaona kile alichozungumza Rev. Kishoka..
Tazama chat hii sehemu ya BI-LATERAL TRADE OVERVIEW:- Hapa
Kisha tazama ongezeko la Imports against Exports zetu kwa kila mwaka..
Mkuu wangu hata wewe nguo ulokuwa ukivaa ukiwa mtoto mdogo haiwezi kulingana na suruali unayovaa leo lakini kama Afya kyako mbaya kipimo cha uzito wako kinaendana na urefu wako.. Hivyo maadam unaona umeongezeka kilo kumbuka pia umeongezeka umri na Urefu..Ongezeko dogo la uzito wako kulingana na umri pamoja na urefu wako linaweza kabisa kuadshiria kwamba una maradhi na hali yako kiafya sii nzuri. Hivyo usije fikiria tu maadam umeona mwaka 2007 tumeongeza wingi wa chakula tunachokula kuliko miaka ya nyuma haina maana afya yetu imeboreka..

 

[Rev. Kishoka]

Oh, umepata data zingine? Nimefungua hio link, nayaweka hapa barazani niliyoyakuta huko.

Mauzo ya nje kwa Marekani kwa miaka kumi, 2000 mpaka 2009 , katika mabilioni ya dola.

2000 - 32.3

2001 - 27.7

2002 - 24.7

2003 - 24.2

2004 - 24.2

2005 - 33.7

2006 - 34.6

2007 - 46.2

2008 - 55.8

2009 - 29.3

Sasa tusaidiane na hiyo trend, wapi pameongezeka, wapi pamepungua.

Naomba uwe mvumilivu, tutafika tu, japo wakina Mkandara wamekwambia uachane nami. Tuchambue hapa hiyo AGOA, maana hakuna sehemu nyingine yeyote ile katika media au forum Tanzania watachambua AGOA.

Again, kutoka katika data zako hizo hizo, nisaidie, nionyeshe kwamba biashara ilipungua wakati wa AGOA.

Kwanza umekosea, si Mabilioni bali ni mamilioni.

Pili ama huelewi lengo la kuhoji suala la AGOA au unapuuzia tuu. Angalia takwimu za mwaka jana na mwaka huu ambazo niliziandika mwanzoni mwa hoja hii. Leo hii tumeuza USD $2million mpaka sasa mwezi wa Saba, na tumeagiza USD$54 million.

Kama kwelil kuna makali ya uchumi wa dunia, mb ona kasi ya Wamarekani kutuuzia sisi haijapungua sana ukifanya ratio na kuangalia asilimia?

 

[Interested Observer]

Wewe IO ndio dhihirisho la kansa ya Watanzania, rahisi kuchonga na kulonga na kunyoshea. Matendo, sifuri.

Kama jamvi halina mada muhimu bali "ya mapenzi" kwa nini hukuanzisha?? Huna sense of initiative??

Hii mada kama haijachangiwa vema moja ya sababu ni kwamba imepinda. Ukitaka kuonyesha AGOA-based business hazijaleta mafanikio onyesha namba kabla ya AGOA (miaka ya 90) na wakati wa AGOA, sio kutupa milinganyo kati ya 2006 na 2008. Mmomonyoko wa uchumi wa dunia lazima utaathiri hizo hesabu za uchambuzi wa AGOA miaka hiyo. Tusichanganye recession na AGOA!

Na ingekuwa vema kama tungepata vyanzo vya madai kuwa manunuzi yetu "yameongezeka karibia mara mbili" wakati wa recession. Habari iliyoletwa hapa ni fyongo, ilivyoanza tu maandishi yake yanatisha:

"due to the credit crunch spawned the global downturn...counterparts member states..."

Makorokosho gani sasa hayo ya huyo mwandishi?

Dilunga,
Kwa komenti zangu hapo juu, ni mashaka yangu na sisi "wote including you" jinsi ambavyo hatutumii opportunities. WA-Africa tumelalamika sana kuhusu economic and business trends za developed countries and attitude towards developing countries especially Africa. Pamoja kuwa favours au vigingi hutolewa kwa wote lakini favours ambazo ziliweza kutolewa na developed world kwa Africa na nchi zingine ambazo ni developing countries only Africa tulishindwa kuzitumia.

Miaka imepita in 90s na nyuma, kulikuwa GUTT, roundtable; American Favoured Nations; zote hizo sisi hatukuzirukia, tuliendelea tu kulalamika. Baada ya WTO na opportunities zote bado sisi ndiyo tumeshindwa kabisa ingawa hata mwenyekiti amewahi kuwa Mtanzania.

Kwa huruma (utakataa) Wa-Marekani wakaunda AGOA, Eurpean Union wakaunda yao Africa inaweza kutrade chochote ila silaha na prohibted materials, mwaka 2005 wachina nao wakaja na yao, Nichi zaidi ya 25 za Africa ziuze chocote bila ushuru kulipwa China. Again are we utilizing such opportunities?

Sasa jibu kwa Kishoka naweza kumjibu very simple. Biashara kati ya Marekani na Tanzania ukicompare na nchi zingine za Asia au hata North Africa, is negligible. Sisi hatuna cha kuuza. We do not have proper industries na services kuwapa Marekani, na hatuwezi ku-compete. Zile products zilizokuwa zikiuzwa wakati wa booming market zilikuwa tu ni suppliment after Nchi kama China, Malaysia, Indonesia kuuza na kukosa extra resources. Baada ya credit crunch wanunuzi wana-priority ya kuchagua wapi bidhaa zitoke; kwa sababu kama zile bidhaa zetu zilkuwa ni suppliment then kuna surplus somewhere and procument will be cheaper and quality will be better.

Kwa upande mwingine, Tanzania itaendelea kuaagiza tu kwa sababu hakuna alternative our services and industries hakuna. Kiwanda cha sindano hakuna, kiwanda cha dawa hakuna, what do you expect?

 

[Interested Observer]

Kwanza umekosea, si Mabilioni bali ni mamilioni.

Pili ama huelewi lengo la kuhoji suala la AGOA au unapuuzia tuu. Angalia takwimu za mwaka jana na mwaka huu ambazo niliziandika mwanzoni mwa hoja hii. Leo hii tumeuza USD $2million mpaka sasa mwezi wa Saba, na tumeagiza USD$54 million.

Kama kwelil kuna makali ya uchumi wa dunia, mb ona kasi ya Wamarekani kutuuzia sisi haijapungua sana ukifanya ratio na kuangalia asilimia?

Rev.
Hiyo ndiyo typical tanzanian mentality. Hatujijui kabisa. Ukimwambia Dilunga kuwa Tanzania biashara participation kiulimwengu ni gegligible atarusha matusi. Mwaka 2000; biashara ya Africa (Sub Sahara)ulimwenguni ilikuwa 3%. Je Tanzania ilikuwa asilimia ngapi?

Dilunga hajui kuwa hizo data alizotoa ni aibu kwa nchi kama Tanzania, yenye eneo 945,000 km mraba, na watu wapatao 40 millioni. Kampuni inayofanya biashara kama hiyo ya data ulizotoa hapo ni medium to a small company.
Dilunga amka!

 

[Kichuguu]

Tanzania ni nchi ya vilaza kweli kweli; ndiyo maana viongozi wetu wanatufanya upumbavu wa namna hii.