MUKAMASIMBA
JF-Expert Member
- Aug 11, 2013
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Regional leaders are concerned by the instability in DRC
South African president Jacob Zuma is in Tanzania for talks with his counterpart, Jakaya Kikwete, after which he will on Monday travel to Uganda to meet President Yoweri Museveni.
The South African presidency said the "visit is purposed on engaging his counterparts on peace and security on the African Continent, including other issues of mutual interest."
It further pointed out Zuma‘s visit "is within the context of consolidating the African Agenda through the enhancement and deepening of bilateral political, economic and social relations.
President Zuma is expected to be accompanied by the Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Ms Maite Nkoana Mashabane, and the Minister of StateSecurity, Mr David Mahlobo.
The trip comes against the backdrop of heightened political tensions in the region.
Last week, President Paul Kagame flew to Angola for strategic talks with strongman Eduardo Dos Santos as the East Africa Standby Force, comprising elite combat units from Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda, finalises preparations to conduct surgical military operations against negative elements including Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) and the genocidal FDLR.
It should be noted that United Nations Security Council (UNSC) gave FDLR up to January 2015 to surrender all weapons, demobilise and renounce their genocide ideology or face military action.
"Since July 2, no further voluntary surrenders of members of the FDLR have happened and the FDLR have failed to deliver on their public promise to voluntarily demobilize," said the international body.
"Only substantial progress toward the full demobilization called for by the region and committed to by the FDLR could justify any further reprieve from military actionagainst the FDLR."
Interestingly, a few rusty weapons and sick combatants who included women and children is all that was handed over to SADC officials in DRC.
Unlike in the late 1990s when Dos Santos was in full support of Laurent Desire Kabila's government until January 18, 2001 when he was assassinated, sources tellChimpreports that the former is not attracted to the leadership in Kinshasa.
At the peak of the M23 rebellion in March 2013, Kabila travelled to Luanda to meet Dos Santos.
Sources say, Kabila sought military support from the much-feared and battle-hardened Angolan commandos to give M23 a bloody nose.
Due to the persuasion of Presidents Museveni and Kagame, the Angolan leader advised Kabila to seek a political solution to the M23 threat.
The rebels who had seized Goma threatened to advance onto Kinshasa, sending shivers down Kabila's spine.
With rebels in charge of Goma, it would have been easier to user planes to carry combatants towards Kinshasa thereby taking the military struggle against Kabila closer to his centre of power.
There was also the possibility of neighbouring countries exploiting such an explosive situation by covertly joining M23 to fight the FDLR and ADF in North Kivu thus turning Kivu into a cocktail of deadly armed battles.
As things went out of hand, Kabila rushed to Kampala where he urged Museveni and Kagame to use their leverage against M23 to pull out of Goma. He promised to tackle M23's concerns including return of refugees from neighbouring countries, respect of human rights and extending social services to the neglected Kivu area.
Kabila further pledged to reintegrate M23 fighters into the mainstream FARDC and provide settlement for the rebels' commanders. It appears all this was to appease East African leaders as Kabila bought more time to rally Angola, Tanzania, Malawi and South Africa to fight M23.
To him, this would tilt the balance of power against the East African regional bloc which seemed to sympathise with M23. Angola refused to commit troops.
Convinced that Kabila had exhibited readiness to end the M23 conflict politically, a meeting was later held at Uganda's Defence Ministry at Mbuya, Kampala where Brig Sultan Makenga was boldly told Rwanda and Uganda army officers to order his forces to evacuate Goma "immediately". Makenga knew very well the [COLOR=#1B8EDE !important]consequences of abusing the goodwill of Uganda and Rwanda.
He was later escorted by military police up to the Uganda-DRC before heading to Goma where he directed his forces to return to their bases in Bunagana and neighbouring towns.
South Africa intervenes
However, as all this happened, South Africa and Tanzania promised to support Kabila's war against M23. That's when Kabila lost appetite for a political settlement with M23. His ego swelled to shocking levels. Zuma sent soldiers and warplanes while Tanzania used heavy artillery against M23.
During that military onslaught, impeccable sources say, FDLR fighters were armed and supported with air bombardments to attack the M23 who were scampering for safety.
However, a battle-hardened and heavily armed unit within Makenga's force, which had earlier defeated Gen Bosco Ntaganda's men, managed to crush and take out of action about 700 FDLR militants in a heavy battle that lasted over 9 hours.
It was during this clash that FDLR were found with new and advanced weapons, confirming fears that the genocidal force was being supported to gain advanced military experience which they would use further their hostilities against Rwanda.
In fact, in Bunagana, FDLR loudly said they would attack Rwanda since M23, which had created a buffer zone between Rwanda and FDLR bases, was no more.
When Makenga decided to cross the border to Uganda and other M23 leaders to Rwanda, Kabila had won the battle but the war was not yet concluded.
He angered Angola, Uganda and Kenya which had urged him to hold talks with M23 but built stronger alliances with Tanzania and South Africa.
While South Africa intended to consolidate its economic interests in the $80bn Grand Inga, the world's largest hydropower scheme proposed for the Congo River, the war on M23 isolated Kabila in East Africa.
New war
Realising that DRC had arguably outsmarted them on the diplomatic front, a new East African Standby Force has since been put in place to undertake military actionagainst FDLR. It has the mandate of Peace and Security Council of the African Union (AU) to engage negative elements in the region.
However, it appears Tanzania appears sympathetic to FDLR fighters.
President Kikwete last year asked Kigali to hold peace talks with FDLR, a group whose leaders are responsible for the 1994 genocide. Kikwete's comments brought the two countries to the brink of an all-out war.
It is this perceived support of FDLR that tensions between Rwanda and Tanzania continue to bubble under the surface. With only a few weeks left for the deadline handed to FDLR to disarm expires, the East African Standby Force is ready for action.
Yet, Kabila would not want this force in his country as it undermines his leadership and DRC's ability to deal with its security challenges. So, Kabila's strong allies will use all available means to intervene – thus Zuma's trip to Tanzania and Uganda.
Zuma is likely to tell Museveni that any intervention in Eastern Congo after the expiry of the FDLR disarmament deadline could trigger a protracted conflict thus hurting Pretoria's economic interests. He may also propose that DRC forces should receive more support to crush ADF and FDLR.
Even if Uganda and Rwanda would want to finish the ADF and FDLR threat as soon as possible, the two countries know they have to avoid the risk of antagonising South Africa which could quietly back Kabila.
Having received support from President Museveni's government during the ANC struggle, Zuma would also want to consult the Ugandan leader on the situation in DRC.
The biggest challenge, which is kept from the public, is that FDLR want to share power with Kagame before surrendering. If Kagame accepted such a move as quietly proposed by some African leaders, he would face a domestic backlash.
Rwanda Foreign Affairs Minister, Louise Mushikiwabo said her country is "ready for FDLR whether armed or unarmed," implying Kigali will welcome militants who choose to surrender and will not hesitate to act when faced by aggression from the same extremists.
She also ruled out conducting talks with FDRL.
ANALYSIS: Inside Zuma’s Trip to Uganda
The South African presidency said the "visit is purposed on engaging his counterparts on peace and security on the African Continent, including other issues of mutual interest."
It further pointed out Zuma‘s visit "is within the context of consolidating the African Agenda through the enhancement and deepening of bilateral political, economic and social relations.
President Zuma is expected to be accompanied by the Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Ms Maite Nkoana Mashabane, and the Minister of StateSecurity, Mr David Mahlobo.
The trip comes against the backdrop of heightened political tensions in the region.
Last week, President Paul Kagame flew to Angola for strategic talks with strongman Eduardo Dos Santos as the East Africa Standby Force, comprising elite combat units from Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda, finalises preparations to conduct surgical military operations against negative elements including Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) and the genocidal FDLR.
It should be noted that United Nations Security Council (UNSC) gave FDLR up to January 2015 to surrender all weapons, demobilise and renounce their genocide ideology or face military action.
"Since July 2, no further voluntary surrenders of members of the FDLR have happened and the FDLR have failed to deliver on their public promise to voluntarily demobilize," said the international body.
"Only substantial progress toward the full demobilization called for by the region and committed to by the FDLR could justify any further reprieve from military actionagainst the FDLR."
Interestingly, a few rusty weapons and sick combatants who included women and children is all that was handed over to SADC officials in DRC.
Unlike in the late 1990s when Dos Santos was in full support of Laurent Desire Kabila's government until January 18, 2001 when he was assassinated, sources tellChimpreports that the former is not attracted to the leadership in Kinshasa.
At the peak of the M23 rebellion in March 2013, Kabila travelled to Luanda to meet Dos Santos.
Sources say, Kabila sought military support from the much-feared and battle-hardened Angolan commandos to give M23 a bloody nose.
Due to the persuasion of Presidents Museveni and Kagame, the Angolan leader advised Kabila to seek a political solution to the M23 threat.
The rebels who had seized Goma threatened to advance onto Kinshasa, sending shivers down Kabila's spine.
With rebels in charge of Goma, it would have been easier to user planes to carry combatants towards Kinshasa thereby taking the military struggle against Kabila closer to his centre of power.
There was also the possibility of neighbouring countries exploiting such an explosive situation by covertly joining M23 to fight the FDLR and ADF in North Kivu thus turning Kivu into a cocktail of deadly armed battles.
As things went out of hand, Kabila rushed to Kampala where he urged Museveni and Kagame to use their leverage against M23 to pull out of Goma. He promised to tackle M23's concerns including return of refugees from neighbouring countries, respect of human rights and extending social services to the neglected Kivu area.
Kabila further pledged to reintegrate M23 fighters into the mainstream FARDC and provide settlement for the rebels' commanders. It appears all this was to appease East African leaders as Kabila bought more time to rally Angola, Tanzania, Malawi and South Africa to fight M23.
To him, this would tilt the balance of power against the East African regional bloc which seemed to sympathise with M23. Angola refused to commit troops.
Convinced that Kabila had exhibited readiness to end the M23 conflict politically, a meeting was later held at Uganda's Defence Ministry at Mbuya, Kampala where Brig Sultan Makenga was boldly told Rwanda and Uganda army officers to order his forces to evacuate Goma "immediately". Makenga knew very well the [COLOR=#1B8EDE !important]consequences of abusing the goodwill of Uganda and Rwanda.
He was later escorted by military police up to the Uganda-DRC before heading to Goma where he directed his forces to return to their bases in Bunagana and neighbouring towns.
South Africa intervenes
However, as all this happened, South Africa and Tanzania promised to support Kabila's war against M23. That's when Kabila lost appetite for a political settlement with M23. His ego swelled to shocking levels. Zuma sent soldiers and warplanes while Tanzania used heavy artillery against M23.
During that military onslaught, impeccable sources say, FDLR fighters were armed and supported with air bombardments to attack the M23 who were scampering for safety.
However, a battle-hardened and heavily armed unit within Makenga's force, which had earlier defeated Gen Bosco Ntaganda's men, managed to crush and take out of action about 700 FDLR militants in a heavy battle that lasted over 9 hours.
It was during this clash that FDLR were found with new and advanced weapons, confirming fears that the genocidal force was being supported to gain advanced military experience which they would use further their hostilities against Rwanda.
In fact, in Bunagana, FDLR loudly said they would attack Rwanda since M23, which had created a buffer zone between Rwanda and FDLR bases, was no more.
When Makenga decided to cross the border to Uganda and other M23 leaders to Rwanda, Kabila had won the battle but the war was not yet concluded.
He angered Angola, Uganda and Kenya which had urged him to hold talks with M23 but built stronger alliances with Tanzania and South Africa.
While South Africa intended to consolidate its economic interests in the $80bn Grand Inga, the world's largest hydropower scheme proposed for the Congo River, the war on M23 isolated Kabila in East Africa.
New war
Realising that DRC had arguably outsmarted them on the diplomatic front, a new East African Standby Force has since been put in place to undertake military actionagainst FDLR. It has the mandate of Peace and Security Council of the African Union (AU) to engage negative elements in the region.
However, it appears Tanzania appears sympathetic to FDLR fighters.
President Kikwete last year asked Kigali to hold peace talks with FDLR, a group whose leaders are responsible for the 1994 genocide. Kikwete's comments brought the two countries to the brink of an all-out war.
It is this perceived support of FDLR that tensions between Rwanda and Tanzania continue to bubble under the surface. With only a few weeks left for the deadline handed to FDLR to disarm expires, the East African Standby Force is ready for action.
Yet, Kabila would not want this force in his country as it undermines his leadership and DRC's ability to deal with its security challenges. So, Kabila's strong allies will use all available means to intervene – thus Zuma's trip to Tanzania and Uganda.
Zuma is likely to tell Museveni that any intervention in Eastern Congo after the expiry of the FDLR disarmament deadline could trigger a protracted conflict thus hurting Pretoria's economic interests. He may also propose that DRC forces should receive more support to crush ADF and FDLR.
Even if Uganda and Rwanda would want to finish the ADF and FDLR threat as soon as possible, the two countries know they have to avoid the risk of antagonising South Africa which could quietly back Kabila.
Having received support from President Museveni's government during the ANC struggle, Zuma would also want to consult the Ugandan leader on the situation in DRC.
The biggest challenge, which is kept from the public, is that FDLR want to share power with Kagame before surrendering. If Kagame accepted such a move as quietly proposed by some African leaders, he would face a domestic backlash.
Rwanda Foreign Affairs Minister, Louise Mushikiwabo said her country is "ready for FDLR whether armed or unarmed," implying Kigali will welcome militants who choose to surrender and will not hesitate to act when faced by aggression from the same extremists.
She also ruled out conducting talks with FDRL.
ANALYSIS: Inside Zuma’s Trip to Uganda
