Mwanzi1
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Hata mimi naona hivyo ukichangia usambazaji wa makarasi, na machine za uhakiki wa taarifa za mpigakura inabidi zirekebishe maana zowezi na tarehe vyote vimebadilika.
Big-Time Investors Pump in $4.250bn
Big-Time Investors Pump in $4.250bn
- Thread starter Geza Ulole
- Start date
Kafrican
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Tanzania FDI inflow 2010 - $1.8Billion
2011 - $1.2Billion
2012 - $1.8Billion
2013 - $2.087Billion
2014 - $2.045Billion
2015 - $1.961Billion
Total accumulated FDI in 5 years = $10.893Billion
Uganda FDI inflow 2010 - $544Million
2011 - $894Million
2012 - $1.205Billion
2013 - $1.096Billion
2014 - $1.059Billion
2015 - $1.057Billion
Total accumulated FDI in 5 years = $5.855Billion
Kenya FDI inflow 2010 - $178Million
2011 - $140Million
2012 - $163Million
2013 - $372Million
2014 - $944Million
2015 - $1.437Billion
Total accumulated FDI in 5 years = $3.234Billion
Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$) | Data
FDI in relation to GDP
Uganda GDP 2010 - $20.179Billion
2011
2012 -$23.516Billion
2013
2014
2015 - $27.856Billion
2016 -
GDP difference after 5 years (2010-2015) =27.856 - 20.179 === $7.677Billion
Tanzania GDP 2010 - $31.408Billion
2011
2012 -$39.088Billion
2013 -$44.333Billion
2014 -
2015 -$45.628Billion
2016 -$
GDP difference after 5 years (2010-2015) = 45.628-31.408 === $14.22Billion
Kenya GDP 2010 - $40.000Billion
2011
2012 -$50.413Billion
2013 -$55.097Billion
2014 -
2015 -$63.768Billion
2016 -$
GDP difference after 5 years (2010-2015) = 63.768-40 ==== $23.768Billion
GDP (current US$) | Data
So Uganda receives accumulate sum of approx $6Billion worth of foreign investments over a period of 5 years and in the same 5 years, her GDP increases by approx $8Billion.
So Tanzania receives accumulated sum of approx $11Billion worth of foreign investments over a period of 5 years and in the same five year, her GDP increases by $14Billion...
Kenya receives accumulated sum of approx $3Billion worth of foreign investments over a period of same 5 years and over the same same five years, her GDP increases by $24Billion .
If I was a simple man who didn't know any better, I would have said Tanzania's and Uganda's FDI is what collects enough revenues and profits to cause an increase in the respective countries GDP output cause the figures look oddly/coincidentally very closely related(Remember FDI is included when calculating a country's GDP the 'I' in the gdp formula stands for gross investment which includes both foreign and domestic direct investment)...but i'm not. nonetheless, its very difficult not to want to connect the two.
Anyway, now that we have put things into perspective, the question should not be whats happening with Kenya(in terms of attracting FDI), but whats happening in Tanzania interms of utilizing investments, Kenya has never overtaken Tanzania in FDI, yet the the GDP gap between the two countries keeps on doubling in favor of Kenya..What gives?
2011 - $1.2Billion
2012 - $1.8Billion
2013 - $2.087Billion
2014 - $2.045Billion
2015 - $1.961Billion
Total accumulated FDI in 5 years = $10.893Billion
Uganda FDI inflow 2010 - $544Million
2011 - $894Million
2012 - $1.205Billion
2013 - $1.096Billion
2014 - $1.059Billion
2015 - $1.057Billion
Total accumulated FDI in 5 years = $5.855Billion
Kenya FDI inflow 2010 - $178Million
2011 - $140Million
2012 - $163Million
2013 - $372Million
2014 - $944Million
2015 - $1.437Billion
Total accumulated FDI in 5 years = $3.234Billion
Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$) | Data
FDI in relation to GDP
Uganda GDP 2010 - $20.179Billion
2011
2012 -$23.516Billion
2013
2014
2015 - $27.856Billion
2016 -
GDP difference after 5 years (2010-2015) =27.856 - 20.179 === $7.677Billion
Tanzania GDP 2010 - $31.408Billion
2011
2012 -$39.088Billion
2013 -$44.333Billion
2014 -
2015 -$45.628Billion
2016 -$
GDP difference after 5 years (2010-2015) = 45.628-31.408 === $14.22Billion
Kenya GDP 2010 - $40.000Billion
2011
2012 -$50.413Billion
2013 -$55.097Billion
2014 -
2015 -$63.768Billion
2016 -$
GDP difference after 5 years (2010-2015) = 63.768-40 ==== $23.768Billion
GDP (current US$) | Data
So Uganda receives accumulate sum of approx $6Billion worth of foreign investments over a period of 5 years and in the same 5 years, her GDP increases by approx $8Billion.
So Tanzania receives accumulated sum of approx $11Billion worth of foreign investments over a period of 5 years and in the same five year, her GDP increases by $14Billion...
Kenya receives accumulated sum of approx $3Billion worth of foreign investments over a period of same 5 years and over the same same five years, her GDP increases by $24Billion .
If I was a simple man who didn't know any better, I would have said Tanzania's and Uganda's FDI is what collects enough revenues and profits to cause an increase in the respective countries GDP output cause the figures look oddly/coincidentally very closely related(Remember FDI is included when calculating a country's GDP the 'I' in the gdp formula stands for gross investment which includes both foreign and domestic direct investment)...but i'm not. nonetheless, its very difficult not to want to connect the two.
Anyway, now that we have put things into perspective, the question should not be whats happening with Kenya(in terms of attracting FDI), but whats happening in Tanzania interms of utilizing investments, Kenya has never overtaken Tanzania in FDI, yet the the GDP gap between the two countries keeps on doubling in favor of Kenya..What gives?
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joto la jiwe
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Haya ndiyo aina ya maswali tunayopaswa kujiuliza ili kuweza kunoa vichwa, ninaomba tuweke uzalendo pembeni ili tuingie darasani kidogo tujadili hesabu za kiuchumi.
1) Tukubaliane na hizi takwimu ulizozileta na tuanze kuzifanyia kazi, mwaka 2010 GDP ya Kenya $40B, uchumi unakua kwa wastan wa 5.5%, na GDP ya Tanzani ilikua $31B, uchumi unakua kwa wastani wa 7%. katika mwendokasi huo utasemaje gap inaongezeka badala ya kupungua au angalau kubaki lile lile?.
Kama kweli gap linaongezeka, basi yafuatayo ni mambo ambayo yanaweza kuchangia
1)GDP ya Kenya ilikuwa kubwa kuliko hiyo uliyotaja ya $40B, au
2)GDP ya Tanzania ilikuwa Ndogo kuliko hiyo iliyotajwa ya 31B au
3)uchumi wa Kenya umekua kwa kasi zaidi ya ile ya Tanzania
4)GDP ya Kenya ya sasa hivi sio sahihi, ni ndogo kuliko inavyotangazwa
5)GDP ya Tanzania ni kubwa kuliko inavyotangazwa.
Sasa tuje katika kutumia akili tu za kawaida ambazo mtu huitaji kwenda darasani, ukiangalia njia kuu zinazoziingizia mapato hizi nchi mbili, kama vile FDI, utalii, Kilimo, Manufacturing, construction, Financial services na Transportation, bado Tanzania inafanya vizuri zaidi ya Kenya katika maeneo mengi, isipokua manufacturing and financial services tu, zaidi ya maeneo hayo, Tanzania inapata mapato ya ziada kwenye madini na gas ambazo Kenya hakuna. Sasa unaposema gap la Kenya na Tanzania linaongezeka badala ya kupungua, ni kwa uchawi gani unafanyika mpaka gap liongezeke?, ndiyo pale baadhi ya watu wanakuwa na wasiwasi na uhalisia wa ukweli wa GDP ya Kenya.
Mwanzi1
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This make me believe (as you put it) your a simple man and you don't know any better. Kenya FDI is been propped with foreign loans and sovereign bonds, while Tanzania and Uganda FDI is real direct investment into natural resources. Let's not forget how Kenya GDP expanded over night, thanks to Uhuruto cosmetic rebasing Kenya's now are bragging about GDP. You wonder why Kenya GDP has expanded rapidly while Uganda and Tanzania hasn't, the money comes in those two countries goes direct to the projects which they will take time to reflects on GDP ie gas, petroleum and mineral. While Kenya borrows to build roads and bridge's and SGR, Tanzania and Uganda are investing in huge projects which will bring massive impact on GDP once they're up and running.
Tony254
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Umeuliza maswali mengi, nitajibu moja tu. Umeuliza inawezekanaje kuwa GDP ya KE ni $40 bn na inakuwa kwa 5.5% na T.Z ni $31 bn na inakuwa kwa 7%. Kisha ukauliza inawezekanaje gap ikaongezeka? Kwa bahati nzuri au mbaya mimi napenda hisabati, naomba twende pole pole step by step:
1) Kenya = $40bn * 0.055 = $2.2 bn
2) Tanzania = $31bn * 0.07 = $2.17 bn.
Kwa hivyo kulingana na hesabu ya darasa la Kwanza ni wazi kuwa KE ilikuwa kwa kiasi kikubwa kushinda T.Z.
joto la jiwe
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Kama tutatumia hesabu na takwimu hizo zilizopo(Sitegemi zibadilishwe), GDP ya Kenya mwaka jana 2016 ni $55.17B, na ile ya Tanzania ni 46.51B, ninaomba nirekebishwe kama kuna makosa, na hii kwa kweli ndiyo hali halisi ilivyo, lakushangaza, Kenya GDP iliruka kutoka $40B mwaka 2010 hadi $70B mwaka 2016, ninaomba nifafanuliwe vizuri katika hili tafadhali sana
joto la jiwe
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Ukiangangali hesabu zako hapo juu, utaona kwamba tofauti ya kipato ni $0.03B, kwa maana ingine, tunategemea gap libaki lile lile la mwaka 2010, au liongezeke kwa 0.03 times 6(number of years), kwa hiyo gap lilipaswa lie $9.18B, sasa haya mahesabu mnayatoa wapi?, ndiyo sababu nilisema kwa mwendokasi w 5.5% na 7% gap lilipaswa kupungua au kubaki vilevile(rejea jibu langu la kwanza).
Mwanzi1
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Mwaka 2014 Uhuru na mwezake Ruto walibadili ngia andani wakageuza jinsi wanvyo piga hesabu za ukuwaji kwa uchumi. Kwa kifupi walichakachua mahesabu ndio wakafika hapo.
Kenya Joins Africa's Top 10 Economies After Rebasing Of Its Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
joto la jiwe
JF-Expert Member
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Mwanzi1, unaweza kuwa na ukweli lakini ngoja wahusika watueleze wenyewe, nitashangaa sana wakishindwa kuja na jibu lenya mashiko, baada ya hilo jibu, tutakuwa na kipindi cha Q&A, usicheze mbali.
joto la jiwe
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Tony254 na Kafrica, tafadhalini sana jitokezeni mtupatie majibu, hata kama hakuna majibu, njooni tufanyeni mazungumzo yenye faida kwa nchi zote mbili, kwani kurekebishana ni sehemu ya ustaarabu na kujifunza
Zero Hours
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This things are just on papers. In reality just rubbish.
Kafrican
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Anyway loans/debt is not included in FDI inflow, even with common sense, If loans were included in FDI then Kenya would be number one in FDI, we have taken loans amounting to more than $12Billion since 2013, starting with the $3.8B SGR loan taken in 2013 and as you can see kenyans FDI in 2013 was only $372Million ... For 2015 where we got $1.4Billion FDI this was as a result of the $700Million investment in the Turkana wind firm
You make i sound as if rebasing an economy is some form of action done behind closed doors under secrecy and it only happens in Kenya..
Yes in 2013 Kenyas GDP changed after rebasing, Our 2013 economy changed from $42.6Billion to $53.4Billion thats an increase of 25.3%..
You forget that Uganda did the same in the same year in order to update her economy calclations
Uganda's GDP expands by 13 pct after rebasing
And you also forget in the same year Tanzania also followed suit and rebased her economy
Tanzania’s GDP expands by 32 pct after rebasing - officials
Tanzania’s GDP expands by 32% after rebasing - officials - CNBC Africa
After rebasing, Tanzania GDP incrased by 32%!!!!!!!! So between Kenya's 25% change and Tanzania's 32%, whose economy was more cosmeticly recalculated???
And stop bragging about FDI, yes we borrow to build roads and bridges, that means we can afford to pay back the loan and eventually own the project , while FDI means whatever the investor built using his FDI money, he will own it forever and all the profits will go back to the host country and all Tz will get is Tax money and jobs but NEVER ownership, all the gas pipes, LPG plants....even in 2050, they will still be foreign owned... if tomorrow the investor decides to take back his investment, you will be left with a big ZERO!
Tony254
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Mwaka wa 2014 Kenya tulifanya kitu inaitwa "rebasing". Mimi nimesomea mambo ya uchumi. Rebasing ni kitu ya kawaida. Kwa mfano Kenya tulikuwa tunatumia base year ya 1990's.Hiyo ni kumaanisha hatukuwa tumezingatia sector mpya kwa mfano sector ya information technology na unajua KE ni baba Yao kwa hii sector. Kwa hivyo ilibidi tubadilishe base year hadi 2009. GDP ya KE ikaongezeka kutoka roughly $40 something billion hadi roughly $50 something billion. Na hii base year tutabadilisha tena baada ya miaka kumi hivi. Na pengine by that time tutaongeza sector mpya. Nigeria haikuwa ime rebase GDP yao kwa miaka mingi sana na walikuwa nambari mbili Afrika kwa miaka mingi tu. Lakini walifanya rebasing 2014 na GDP yao ikaongezeka roughly from less tham $300 bn hadi over $400bn. Na wakachukua nafasi ya Kwanza kutoka Afrika Kusini. Tanzania pia mlifanya rebasing 2014 Ama 2015. Ebu nitafute hio article
Tony254
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Nimepata scholarship ya kusoma zaidi huko Czech republic (Europe). Nasafiri Monday. Nitamiss watu wa Jf hapa lakini nikipata nafasi nitakuwa najitumbukiza humu.
joto la jiwe
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Tony254, Kenya ilipofanya rebasing, uchumi ulipanda kwa 25%, mwaka mmoja baadae Tanzania ikafanya rebasing uchumi ukapanda kwa 35%, bado kwa kukua kwa uchumi katika maeneo mengi, Tanzania inaizidi Kenya, mimi ningependa kujua, mnapata wapi nguvu na ushaidi wa kusema gap kati ya Tanzania na Kenya linaongezeka?, kiukweli, mgelikua mnafikiria na kufuatilia kwa undani zaidi mambo ya uchumi ya Tanzania na Kenya, mgeshangaa kwanini hadi sasa Tanzania haijaipita Kenya kwa GDP, kwa sababu tributaries zote zinazojaza GDP, Tanzania inaizidi Kenya, tena zaidi ya mara mbili, kuanzia utalii, kilimo, FDI, transportation, Natural resources, and the list goes on......
joto la jiwe
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Baada ya hizo rebasing, GDP ya Kenya ilifikia $63B, mwaka jana 2016, na Tanzania ikafikia $55B, utaona gap hapo imepungua kutoka $9B kutoka 2010 hadi $8B mwaka 2016, hii ni kwasababu Tanzania GDP yake iliongezeka kwa 33 -35%, na uchumi wa Kenya ulikua kati ya 20 -25%.
The fact is GDP ya Kenya ni $63B na Tanzania ni $55B, after rebasing, japo wataalamu wa uchumi wengi wanachukulia uchumi huu wa baada ya rebasing kwamba sio asilia na wanapendelea kutumia takwimu za kabla ya ku rebasing. Bado ninataka kujua hiyo GDP ya above $70B imepatikanaje?
Tony254
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Sijasema hamuezi kutupita. Actually mnaeza kutupita. Unajua T.Z saa hii inakuwa kwa mwendo wa kasi sana. Kwa hivyo ceteris paribus yaani mambo yakiendelea hivi na T.Z ikiendelea kukuwa kwa mwendo kasi na huku sisi tukiendelea kukuwa kwa mwendo wa 5% basi kwa miaka kama saba hivi mtatupita. Ila China imejaribu kupita U.S kwa miaka mingi in terms of norminal GDP lakini haijaweza. China inakuwa kwa mwendo wa 7% na U.S kwa mwendo wa 2.5% lakini juu gap ni kubwa hawajaweza kupiku U.S in terms of norminal GDP. Lakini China wamepita U.S in terms of GDP PPP yaani purchasing power parity. Nilisoma mahali T.Z. mmepita Kenya in terms of GDP PPP lakini ikifika mambo ya normal GDP bado gap kati yetu ni kubwa na mnaeza tupita labda baada ya miaka zaidi ya tano na lazima mkue kwa rate ya zaidi ya 7% au 8% na sisi tukue kwa rate ya 5% au 4%. Ole wenu iwapo Kenya tutaanza kukua kwa mwendo wa 6% kwani hamtawahi kutufikia. Haya ni mambo ya hesabu na uchumi na ni mambo rahisi ila huwa inachanganya usipokuwa makini.
eliakeem
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