Can Tanzania become a middle income country in 2050? Big NO

[Mu-Israeli]

hiyo data uliyoleta karibu inafanana hata na sector nyingine na zaidi ni kwamba kwa sasa wanalima kupata mafuta ya mitambo.
pili ni kwamba utauza magunia mangapi upate maendeleo yanayotakiwa? unahitaji organization ikiwa supported na r&d ili ufanikishe. bila r&d huwezi kuzalisha vinavyotakiwa kiasi na quality inayoridhisha. bila biotechnoligy america wasingeweza

Nchi kama Korea (kusini) zilikua zinategemea kilimo miaka ya 1950-1960.
Ila wao walikua na uongozi ambao uliona mbali na ukakuza viwanda kwa mpango maalum kabisa.

Check article hii hapa:-

[h=3]South Korean Prosperity[/h] With the end of the Second World War in 1945, two separate regimes emerged on the Korean peninsula to replace the colonial government. The U.S. military government took over the southern half, while communist Russia set up a Korean leadership in the northern half. The de-colonization and political division meant sudden disruption of trade both with Japan and within Korea, causing serious economic turmoil. Dealing with the post-colonial chaos with economic aid, the U.S. military government privatized properties previously owned by the Japanese government and civilians. The first South Korean government, established in 1948, carried out a land reform, making land distribution more egalitarian. Then the Korean War broke out in 1950, killing one and half million people and destroying about a quarter of capital stock during its three year duration.

After the war, South Korean policymakers set upon stimulating economic growth by promoting indigenous industrial firms, following the example of many other post-World War II developing countries. The government selected firms in targeted industries and gave them privileges to buy foreign currencies and to borrow funds from banks at preferential rates. It also erected tariff barriers and imposed a prohibition on manufacturing imports, hoping that the protection would give domestic firms a chance to improve productivity through learning-by-doing and importing advanced technologies. Under the policy, known as import-substitution industrialization (ISI), entrepreneurs seemed more interested in maximizing and perpetuating favors by bribing bureaucrats and politicians, however. This behavior, dubbed as directly unproductive profit-seeking activities (DUP), caused efficiency to falter and living standards to stagnate, providing a background to the collapse of the First Republic in April 1960.


The military coup led by General Park Chung Hee overthrew the short-lived Second Republic in May 1961, making a shift to a strategy of stimulating growth through export promotion (EP hereafter), although ISI was not altogether abandoned. Under EP, policymakers gave various types of favors -- low interest loans being the most important -- to exporting firms according to their export performance. As the qualification for the special treatment was quantifiable and objective, the room for DUP became significantly smaller. Another advantage of EP over ISI was that it accelerated productivity advances by placing firms under the discipline of export markets and by widening the contact with the developed world: efficiency growth was significantly faster in export industries than in the rest of the economy. In the decade following the shift to EP, per capita output doubled, and South Korea became an industrialized country: from 1960/62 to 1973/75 the share of agriculture in GDP fell from 45 percent to 25 percent, while the share of manufacturing rose from 9 percent to 27 percent. One important factor contributing to the achievement was that the authoritarian government could enjoy relative independence from and avoid capture by special interests.

 

[intimetraveller]

Lakini kihistoria, hata hawa jamaa wote walioendelea, walianzia kwenye kilimo.
Kilimo kika-finance industrialisation, education na R&D. Huku kwetu kilimo kinaweza kutumika kama spring-borad ya kuanzishia process ya maendelea. Education na R&D zinahitaji finances nyingi kutoka chanzo fulani, yaani kilimo, tourism na mining, ambavyo vyote hivyo Tanzania tunavyo.

haiwezekani kumaliza matatizo ya sasa kwa kutumia suluhisho za kizamani. kilimo siku zile kilikuwa hakina competition kama sasa. bei ya mazao ilikuwa juu kwa kuwa mkulima alikuwa anapanga mwenyewe na uchumi wa dunia ulikuwa haujaungaka kama sasa. nchi za uxhumi wa kati zina kipato cha one trillion dollar. kilimo chetu kikienda sana na tumejitahidi sana kinaweza kuingiza dola millioni 25 kwa mwaka. sasa trilliob moja tutaifikishaje? minimum requirements ziliishapanda siku nyingi. inabidi tuzikimbize.

 

[intimetraveller]

Nchi kama Korea (kusini) zilikua zinategemea kilimo miaka ya 1950-1960.
Ila wao walikua na uongozi ambao uliona mbali na ukakuza viwanda kwa mpango maalum kabisa.

Check article hii hapa:-

[h=3]South Korean Prosperity[/h] With the end of the Second World War in 1945, two separate regimes emerged on the Korean peninsula to replace the colonial government. The U.S. military government took over the southern half, while communist Russia set up a Korean leadership in the northern half. The de-colonization and political division meant sudden disruption of trade both with Japan and within Korea, causing serious economic turmoil. Dealing with the post-colonial chaos with economic aid, the U.S. military government privatized properties previously owned by the Japanese government and civilians. The first South Korean government, established in 1948, carried out a land reform, making land distribution more egalitarian. Then the Korean War broke out in 1950, killing one and half million people and destroying about a quarter of capital stock during its three year duration.

After the war, South Korean policymakers set upon stimulating economic growth by promoting indigenous industrial firms, following the example of many other post-World War II developing countries. The government selected firms in targeted industries and gave them privileges to buy foreign currencies and to borrow funds from banks at preferential rates. It also erected tariff barriers and imposed a prohibition on manufacturing imports, hoping that the protection would give domestic firms a chance to improve productivity through learning-by-doing and importing advanced technologies. Under the policy, known as import-substitution industrialization (ISI), entrepreneurs seemed more interested in maximizing and perpetuating favors by bribing bureaucrats and politicians, however. This behavior, dubbed as directly unproductive profit-seeking activities (DUP), caused efficiency to falter and living standards to stagnate, providing a background to the collapse of the First Republic in April 1960.


The military coup led by General Park Chung Hee overthrew the short-lived Second Republic in May 1961, making a shift to a strategy of stimulating growth through export promotion (EP hereafter), although ISI was not altogether abandoned. Under EP, policymakers gave various types of favors -- low interest loans being the most important -- to exporting firms according to their export performance. As the qualification for the special treatment was quantifiable and objective, the room for DUP became significantly smaller. Another advantage of EP over ISI was that it accelerated productivity advances by placing firms under the discipline of export markets and by widening the contact with the developed world: efficiency growth was significantly faster in export industries than in the rest of the economy. In the decade following the shift to EP, per capita output doubled, and South Korea became an industrialized country: from 1960/62 to 1973/75 the share of agriculture in GDP fell from 45 percent to 25 percent, while the share of manufacturing rose from 9 percent to 27 percent. One important factor contributing to the achievement was that the authoritarian government could enjoy relative independence from and avoid capture by special interests.

thanks for that piece of information. even nyerere adopted this strategy from isi to epi. it had worked for korea and failed us. why? korea had access to american technologies and preferential markets up to now legally or illegally. refer apple vs samsung but tanzania had no access to technologies and markets and never it will get. no wonder our industries failed because they could not compete. the only possible way is to invest in r&d and enter in the market with novel industries full of innovations.

 

[intimetraveller]

We just need a visionary person, patriotic leader kazi kwisha.
Mengine yatakua historia tu.

why aren't we getting them?

 

[Maundumula]

We just need a visionary person, patriotic leader kazi kwisha.
Mengine yatakua historia tu.

Nyerere alikuwa na sifa zote hizo mbona hatukufika popote?

You only need hard working people, sio watu wanaokaa kulialia kila siku serikali serikali haitufanyii wakati wao hawataki kufanya majukumu yao. Sisi wenyewe mashahidi wapo vijana wangapi Tanzania hii ambao wana nguvu za kufanya kazi lakini wanaishi kwa ndugu na jamaa wanaamka asubuhi wanaenda kijiweni,. mchana wanarudi kula jioni waende kulala. Halafu utamsikia analalamika maisha magumu! godamn it!

 

[Mwanahisa]

Nyerere alikuwa na sifa zote hizo mbona hatukufika popote?

You only need hard working people, sio watu wanaokaa kulialia kila siku serikali serikali haitufanyii wakati wao hawataki kufanya majukumu yao. Sisi wenyewe mashahidi wapo vijana wangapi Tanzania hii ambao wana nguvu za kufanya kazi lakini wanaishi kwa ndugu na jamaa wanaamka asubuhi wanaenda kijiweni,. mchana wanarudi kula jioni waende kulala. Halafu utamsikia analalamika maisha magumu! godamn it!

Mkuu kama vile unanisema, at one point nilikua kwenye hiyo situation ya kuamka na kurudi kulala with a positive energy kama kijana, ila tatizo ni uongozi wa hilo jahazi kwani hata upige kasia vipi kama chombo kinaenda mrama ni vigumu kutoka.

 

[Drifter]

Mkuu, Afrika kusini ilifikishwa hapo na mkoloni. Kwa hiyo unapendelea mkoloni arudi kui-colonize Tanzania?

Tena cha kusikitisha zaidi ni kwamba Afrika ya Kusini ustawi wake bado unategemea uwepo wa mzungu katika utawala na nyanja kuu za uchumi. Wazungu ndio wanaofuatilia na kuhakikisha utawala wa sheria na nidhamu ya mapato na matumizi inazingatiwa. Siku mzungu akitoweka wakabaki waswahili peke yao kwenye utawala basi ndio mlango wa madili kama ya kwetu utakuwa umefunguliwa kikamilifu. Ile kuanza tu miaka ya kati ya 1990 jamaa tayari wakatengeneza misheni na kampuni maarufu ya silaha ya ulaya (ufaransa); wakanunua ndege kibao toka Airbus baada ya kushikishwa 10 pasenti ya uhakika ili waipumzishe Boeing. Kila siku zinazuka skandali za ulaji na nyingi zinagunduliwa na kufikishwa mahakamani. Rais aliyeko madarakani bado ana kesi ya ufisadi iko mahakamani inamsubiri. Inakatisha tamaa sana jinsi watu weusi tulivyo. Bila uongozi bora vingine vyote havifanyi kazii. Hii kauli ya kuhimiza watu wafanye kazi kwa bidii ili kukuza uchumi ilhali uongozi na mfumo uliopo ni wa kifisadi ni kuchezeana akili.

 

[Kiranga]

Tanzania cannot atain middle income country status forever until at least people learn to use paragraphs.

On a serious tip.

[h=2]http://www.theigc.org/sites/default/files/attaining_middle_income_status_in_tanzania.pdf[/h]

 

[Drifter]

Nyerere alikuwa na sifa zote hizo mbona hatukufika popote?

You only need hard working people, sio watu wanaokaa kulialia kila siku serikali serikali haitufanyii wakati wao hawataki kufanya majukumu yao. Sisi wenyewe mashahidi wapo vijana wangapi Tanzania hii ambao wana nguvu za kufanya kazi lakini wanaishi kwa ndugu na jamaa wanaamka asubuhi wanaenda kijiweni,. mchana wanarudi kula jioni waende kulala. Halafu utamsikia analalamika maisha magumu! godamn it!

People working hard would surely enable individuals to sustain themselves, but for an entire nation (read Tanzania) to progress to a middle income status and even higher level of prosperity, requires sound policies, strategies and a competent leadership dedicated to that goal; leadership that can motivate and channel those "individual efforts" to exploit cost-effectively the abundant natural endowments of the country to create real wealth. Obviously, we do not yet have that leadership in this country. It's a challenge we need to address very seriously.

 

[intimetraveller]

Nyerere alikuwa na sifa zote hizo mbona hatukufika popote?

You only need hard working people, sio watu wanaokaa kulialia kila siku serikali serikali haitufanyii wakati wao hawataki kufanya majukumu yao. Sisi wenyewe mashahidi wapo vijana wangapi Tanzania hii ambao wana nguvu za kufanya kazi lakini wanaishi kwa ndugu na jamaa wanaamka asubuhi wanaenda kijiweni,. mchana wanarudi kula jioni waende kulala. Halafu utamsikia analalamika maisha magumu! godamn it!

nyerere had qualities but he disliked intellectuals. the trend inherited up to now. engineer boss wake amefundishwa kusoma na kuandika ili achukue uboss. mtu ana phd kwa sasa na boss wake ana masters au bachelors. dr au prof. anatengeneza mpango lakini unayempelekea hawezi kuusoma na akiusoma hawezi kuulewa. unatupwa baada ya hapo mwenye mpango anatengenezewa visa, uchafu, vitimbwi jungu nk. kwa hiyo mipango mizuri katika nchii hii imetupwa na hatuwezi kujifunza. nasa haiwezi kuendeshwa na muuza mandazi mkategemea kwenda mwezini au pluto. mtauza maandazi tu kama tunavyofanya. nyerere did so and his successors toed the line.

 

[intimetraveller]

Tena cha kusikitisha zaidi ni kwamba Afrika ya Kusini ustawi wake bado unategemea uwepo wa mzungu katika utawala na nyanja kuu za uchumi. Wazungu ndio wanaofuatilia na kuhakikisha utawala wa sheria na nidhamu ya mapato na matumizi inazingatiwa. Siku mzungu akitoweka wakabaki waswahili peke yao kwenye utawala basi ndio mlango wa madili kama ya kwetu utakuwa umefunguliwa kikamilifu. Ile kuanza tu miaka ya kati ya 1990 jamaa tayari wakatengeneza misheni na kampuni maarufu ya silaha ya ulaya (ufaransa); wakanunua ndege kibao toka Airbus baada ya kushikishwa 10 pasenti ya uhakika ili waipumzishe Boeing. Kila siku zinazuka skandali za ulaji na nyingi zinagunduliwa na kufikishwa mahakamani. Rais aliyeko madarakani bado ana kesi ya ufisadi iko mahakamani inamsubiri. Inakatisha tamaa sana jinsi watu weusi tulivyo. Bila uongozi bora vingine vyote havifanyi kazii. Hii kauli ya kuhimiza watu wafanye kazi kwa bidii ili kukuza uchumi ilhali uongozi na mfumo uliopo ni wa kifisadi ni kuchezeana akili.

the mzungus magic is only through r&d. you do not do it he will simply overrun you

 

[intimetraveller]

People working hard would surely enable individuals to sustain themselves, but for an entire nation (read Tanzania) to progress to a middle income status and even higher level of prosperity, requires sound policies, strategies and a competent leadership dedicated to that goal; leadership that can motivate and channel those "individual efforts" to exploit cost-effectively the abundant natural endowments of the country to create real wealth. Obviously, we do not yet have that leadership in this country. It's a challenge we need to address very seriously.

i actually appreciate good leadership. we can lead ourselves without politicians. we have always organised our wedding parties without any politicians. we can extraplote that into something meaningful to support our r&d. politicians will never come to us no matter what unless we show them the way

 

[intimetraveller]

i actually appreciate good leadership. we can lead ourselves without politicians. we have always organised our wedding parties without any politicians. we can extraplote that into something meaningful to support our r&d. politicians will never come to us no matter what unless we show them the way[/QU
our weddings costs about 15k dollars on average involving about 300 in attendance. if we can reduce that to one hundred will give out money to support our r&d. this will faclitate industrialization and employment to our kids and relatives

 

[intimetraveller]

People working hard would surely enable individuals to sustain themselves, but for an entire nation (read Tanzania) to progress to a middle income status and even higher level of prosperity, requires sound policies, strategies and a competent leadership dedicated to that goal; leadership that can motivate and channel those "individual efforts" to exploit cost-effectively the abundant natural endowments of the country to create real wealth. Obviously, we do not yet have that leadership in this country. It's a challenge we need to address very seriously.

unajua kuna watu wana matusi sana eti watanzania hawafanyi kazi! uongo mtupu. wakulima wetu vijijini hawalali ila bei wanayopewa hovyo. hawawezi kupiga hatua wananyonywa.

 

[Maundumula]

People working hard would surely enable individuals to sustain themselves, but for an entire nation (read Tanzania) to progress to a middle income status and even higher level of prosperity, requires sound policies, strategies and a competent leadership dedicated to that goal; leadership that can motivate and channel those "individual efforts" to exploit cost-effectively the abundant natural endowments of the country to create real wealth. Obviously, we do not yet have that leadership in this country. It's a challenge we need to address very seriously.

Sound policies will do nothing in a nation of idlers, whereby for every one working individual there are at least twenty family members seeking for his support.

 

[emalau]

No country has ever developed without investing in technology. All South east Asian countries have made a big stride by investing in technology. Take an example imagine if our people had knowledge regarding gold exploration and processing, we could make money on our own by selling to the international market ultimately increase our GDP and standard of living to our people.

Take the second example if we could have the technology regarding textile processing all the money being sent to China and hong Kong would have remained in the country. Therefore as long as we remain technologically dependent it is doomed we will remain poor and the target won't be met.

 

[Deshbhakt]

Apart from indulging in the rhetoric of current politics, technological growth and leadership issues, why doesn't anyone objectively criticize the very West who still do not wish (and never wished) back then by removing the trade barriers and/or policies so as enable many African countries develop now and back then?

When we compare the mighty USA, they and we should not forget, it was the 'Slaves' which they took from Africa to enable them grow and prosper!

Why do such authors always make the African countries appear as mediocre and not teach the West etc to where they erred and what can they do to rectify?

 

[intimetraveller]

No country has ever developed without investing in technology. All South east Asian countries have made a big stride by investing in technology. Take an example imagine if our people had knowledge regarding gold exploration and processing, we could make money on our own by selling to the international market ultimately increase our GDP and standard of living to our people.

Take the second example if we could have the technology regarding textile processing all the money being sent to China and hong Kong would have remained in the country. Therefore as long as we remain technologically dependent it is doomed we will remain poor and the target won't be met.

this is very correct. the fact that you do not have technologies to exploit natural resources of which many in this country thinks they are enough to lift us, then others will simply take it away for cheap and you will never develop. everything relies on technology.

 

[intimetraveller]

People working hard would surely enable individuals to sustain themselves, but for an entire nation (read Tanzania) to progress to a middle income status and even higher level of prosperity, requires sound policies, strategies and a competent leadership dedicated to that goal; leadership that can motivate and channel those "individual efforts" to exploit cost-effectively the abundant natural endowments of the country to create real wealth. Obviously, we do not yet have that leadership in this country. It's a challenge we need to address very seriously.

working hard but using poor or bad methods and tools will never get you anywhere.
again leaders nows nothing and all what they know is from the very people they are ruling. never expect them to be commited to things they have never even heard of.

 

[intimetraveller]

People working hard would surely enable individuals to sustain themselves, but for an entire nation (read Tanzania) to progress to a middle income status and even higher level of prosperity, requires sound policies, strategies and a competent leadership dedicated to that goal; leadership that can motivate and channel those "individual efforts" to exploit cost-effectively the abundant natural endowments of the country to create real wealth. Obviously, we do not yet have that leadership in this country. It's a challenge we need to address very seriously.

my friend hii mambo ya kusema natural resources tunajidanganya. hakuna nchi iliyowahi kuendelea kwa kwa kuuza hivyo vitu. kwa sababu ni vya asili ina maana viko mahali pengi kwa hiyo havina bei na hivyo haviwezi kuleta pesa ya kukuza uchumi. r&d ambayo matokeo yake ni technology ndiyo yenyewe.