Cost comparison SGR Kenya vs SGR Tanzania

Cost comparison SGR Kenya vs SGR Tanzania

White elephant rising


SGR freight service was started Jan 2018 (while passenger service started in June 2017).... Lets keep that in mind as we look at this latest statistical release. I have highlighted the important part in red for the lazy people

KNBS KRA SGR Performance - Copy.jpg



So in its first year of operation (2018), the SGR ferried approx 2.9 Million tonnes worth of containers and generated a revenue of $40 million from Freight and $16 Million from Passenger Service {Total revenue 2018 = $56 Million }. But the operating cost was greater than that so the train service ended up making a loss of approx $100 Million.

As shown in the figure, Data for 2019 is shown for January to September: Up to September this year the SGR had ferried approx 3.3 Million tonnes and generated a revenue of $75 Million from freight and $12 Million from Passenger {Total revenue so far 2019 = $87 Million } If those last three months of 2019 average a freight revenue collection of $10 Million per month like they have for July, Aug, Sept of 2019, we will probably be looking at a revenue of $120 Million for the full 2019 Operating year from the $56 Million generated in 2018!

When this project was about to be launched, It was said the project would break even (i.e Revenue VS Expenditure) in about 4 to 5 years and after that we would begin to see the SGR actually making profit..... It was said the expenditure will continue to rise sequentially and marginally each year as more trains are added but the cost of running the rail service will peak out at about $200m p.a but on the other hand, revenue will rise exponentially each year once the sort out last mile connection issues and once they start transporting bulk non conventional cargo like fertilizer, clinker, Cement, liquids and chemicals...etc
 
Zigi Rizla said:
[emoji1787][emoji1787][emoji1787] Geza ameshtuka

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Nimeshtuka nn? Suppose our cost for SGR from Dar to Morogoro is same as Mombasa to Nrb still we will have an upper hand since ours axle load 35tons (urs 25tons), moves fast at 160km/h (urs 110km/h) n ours is electrical urs diesel therefore operation costs will always be lower! And for the wagons I don't think their price will be over $500mln therefore $500mln+$1.2bln= $1.7bln
 
Geza Ulole said:
Nimeshtuka nn? Suppose our cost for SGR from Dar to Morogoro is same as Mombasa to Nrb still we will have an upper hand since ours axle load 35tons (urs 25tons), moves fast at 160km/h (urs 110km/h) n ours is electrical urs diesel therefore operation costs will always be lower! And for the wagons I don't think their price will be over $500mln therefore $500mln+$1.2bln= $1.7bln
Click to expand...
Upper what now? You think what you have listed automatically give you an upper hand?
There is a reason why you ordered only like 14 locomotives and we ordered like 56 of them. Your rail will be higher tonnage but less frequencies, ours is lower tonnage but high frequency, you know what that means? For containerized cargo, its a complete waste of axle, I mean Japan has 17 tonne axle load rail lines and they carry more goods than East and central Africa combined! For containers, Your train will still be waiting to fill at-least 80% of its wagons while at the same two of our trains would have already filled up and already halfway to its destination.
[BTW japan deliberately lowered their axle load from 22 ton/axle to 17 t/axle in order to increase the frequency of train ride]

Why do you think our rail has a capacity of doing 22 Million tonnes p.a while yours is 18 Million, despite your trains being faster with bigger axle load???? Its all about the Operating mode!
Imagine having a dreamliner 787 that does 2 trips daily between Dar-Dodoma, VS another company on the same route that has 4 Bombardier Q-400 that does 8 flights a flight every 3 hours through the day... Who will carry more passengers???? The correct answer is, who the fuc%k knows! you actually have to do the calculations on that based on demand vs availability of the flight and avg booking grace period.. There are people who actually study to be professions in that kind of thing, its called Operations Research, Those in the Computer Science and IT use Simulations and models for the same thing.


The only thing that will save your rail is bulk raw/unprocessed minerals being exported from DRC where you would need like one heavy duty train to carry all the weeks/months raw mined minerals to a ship at the port in one fell swoop.
 
Kafrican said:
Upper what now? You think what you have listed automatically give you an upper hand?
There is a reason why you ordered only like 14 locomotives and we ordered like 56 of them. Your rail will be higher tonnage but less frequencies, ours is lower tonnage but high frequency, you know what that means? For containerized cargo, its a complete waste of axle, I mean Japan has 17 tonne axle load rail lines and they carry more goods than East and central Africa combined! For containers, Your train will still be waiting to fill at-least 80% of its wagons while at the same two of our trains would have already filled up and already halfway to its destination.
[BTW japan deliberately lowered their axle load from 22 ton/axle to 17 t/axle in order to increase the frequency of train ride]

Why do you think our rail has a capacity of doing 22 Million tonnes p.a while yours is 18 Million, despite your trains being faster with bigger axle load???? Its all about the Operating mode!
Imagine having a dreamliner 787 that does 2 trips daily between Dar-Dodoma, VS another company on the same route that has 4 Bombardier Q-400 that does 8 flights a flight every 3 hours through the day... Who will carry more passengers???? The correct answer is, who the fuc%k knows! you actually have to do the calculations on that based on demand vs availability of the flight and avg booking grace period.. There are people who actually study to be professions in that kind of thing, its called Operations Research, Those in the Computer Science and IT use Simulations and models for the same thing.


The only thing that will save your rail is bulk raw/unprocessed minerals being exported from DRC where you would need like one heavy duty train to carry all the weeks/months raw mined minerals to a ship at the port in one fell swoop.
Click to expand...
Wait u will get to know soon! Rwanda, Burundi n DRC r not stupid! U got 56 locomotives but everyone is displeased with their model!
 
Kafrican said:
Upper what now? You think what you have listed automatically give you an upper hand?
There is a reason why you ordered only like 14 locomotives and we ordered like 56 of them. Your rail will be higher tonnage but less frequencies, ours is lower tonnage but high frequency, you know what that means? For containerized cargo, its a complete waste of axle, I mean Japan has 17 tonne axle load rail lines and they carry more goods than East and central Africa combined! For containers, Your train will still be waiting to fill at-least 80% of its wagons while at the same two of our trains would have already filled up and already halfway to its destination.
[BTW japan deliberately lowered their axle load from 22 ton/axle to 17 t/axle in order to increase the frequency of train ride]

Why do you think our rail has a capacity of doing 22 Million tonnes p.a while yours is 18 Million, despite your trains being faster with bigger axle load???? Its all about the Operating mode!
Imagine having a dreamliner 787 that does 2 trips daily between Dar-Dodoma, VS another company on the same route that has 4 Bombardier Q-400 that does 8 flights a flight every 3 hours through the day... Who will carry more passengers???? The correct answer is, who the fuc%k knows! you actually have to do the calculations on that based on demand vs availability of the flight and avg booking grace period.. There are people who actually study to be professions in that kind of thing, its called Operations Research, Those in the Computer Science and IT use Simulations and models for the same thing.


The only thing that will save your rail is bulk raw/unprocessed minerals being exported from DRC where you would need like one heavy duty train to carry all the weeks/months raw mined minerals to a ship at the port in one fell swoop.
Click to expand...
 
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