Go fuc your self, Zezeta
Egypt turns to Tanzania on Nile dam dispute
Egypt turns to Tanzania on Nile dam dispute
- Thread starter Geza Ulole
- Start date
Magonjwa Mtambuka
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Kujifanya mzungu mweusi kunaonyesha jinsi ulivyo mpuuzi. Yaani hujielewi na hujithamini ,ha ha ha.
Darmian
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Wakenya punguzeni kula miraa tafadhali.
Zezeta mchoma kuku
..Ninavyokumbuka Tanzania ilitafuta ushauri wa kitaalam toka Ethiopia kabla ya kuanza mradi wa Stieglers gorge.
..Zaidi ya contractors kutokea Egypt what else are we getting from them?
..Are they building it for free for us? Is there any kind of financial assistance that they are giving us?
..Zaidi ya contractors kutokea Egypt what else are we getting from them?
..Are they building it for free for us? Is there any kind of financial assistance that they are giving us?
Geza Ulole
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What happened to GERD? Only 2 turbines in operation so far?
..lakini Ethiopia si ndio waliokuwa wakitushauri kuhusu Stiegler's Gorge HEP?
Tanzania: Ethiopian Experts Jet in for Stiegler's Gorge Project
A promise by the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, to bring a team of dam experts to help in the implementation of Stiegler's Gorge hydroelectric project envisaged to pump into the national grid 2,100 megawatts, officially materialises today when the team jets into the country.
A statement from the Directorate of Presidential Communications quoted President John Magufuli as saying, the Ethiopian dam experts are expected to arrive in the country and later meet and hold talks with local experts ahead of the kicking off of the country's projec
Geza Ulole
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Ilikuwa wajenge ila ilikuja kugundulika hawana uwezo, uzoefu na ujuzi! Italian companies are the guys doing GERD! Ndomaana JPM alienda Egypt baada ya hapo na El-Sewedy na Arab constructor wakaja ku-sign mikataba. Jijuze mzee, hivi vitu viko online! BTW kule JNHPP kuna Mchina pia akifanya physical construction.
Egypt, Sudan to Sue Italian Co. over Participating in GERD’s Construction
by Rana Atef
6:22 PM May 4, 2021
the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
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Egypt and Sudan are combining forces to sue the Italian Salini Impregilo (Currently known as Webuild) after establishing the main structures of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
The Sudanese Irrigation Minister Yasser Abbas asserted last month that his state will sue both the corporation and the Ethiopian government if Ethiopia conducted such a step.He added that the case will focus on the ecological, environmental, and social impacts of establishing the dam.
Furthermore, Egypt backed the plan that’s why Egyptians in Italy protested in Rome against the corporation after winning the construction GERD contract.
Last month, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said that the GERD crisis faces Ethiopian intransigence, explaining that Ethiopia has rejected some international mediations to solve the crisis.
Recently, Shoukry had made several African tours to a number of brotherly African countries, carrying messages from President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi to presidents and leaders of these countries, about the developments of the Renaissance Dam file and the Egyptian position in this regard.
Egypt, Sudan to Sue Italian Co. over Participating in GERD's Construction | Sada Elbalad
Egypt, Sudan to Sue Italian Co. over Participating in GERD's Construction
see.news
Geza Ulole
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NASA's Terra spacecraft shows filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam along the Blue Nile River is well under way near the Ethiopia-Sudan border. CREDIT: (Photo/NASA-JPL)
The Politics Of The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam – Analysis
July 29, 2021 Gateway HouseBy Gateway House
By Ambassador Gurjit Singh*
On 5 July 2021, Ethiopia informed Egypt and Sudan that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia is undergoing its second filling. Cairo once again took the matter to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The UNSC discussed the matter on 9 July, under ‘threat to peace and security.’ It did not approve the Tunisia-led resolution asking for Ethiopia to desist from unilateral actions regarding the GERD. The UNSC has cautioned parties to maintain peace and continue negotiations, including technical discussions to arrive at a solution.[1] It supports the African Union (AU) led negotiation process.[2]
Located in the Benishangul-Gumuz Region of Ethiopia,[3] the construction of this giant hydropower dam on the Blue Nile began in 2011, to be completed in 2022. With a generating capacity of 6.45 GW, it will be the seventh-largest globally and the biggest in Africa.
The White Nile rises in the Great Lakes of East and Central Africa. The Blue and shorter Nile rises in Lake Tana in the Amhara region of Ethiopia and flows to Khartoum. This is a rare river that runs northwards from Khartoum and is harnessed by Egypt through the gigantic Aswan Dam project.
Ethiopia had never previously tapped the Nile’s resources. Sudan has the Al-Ruṣayriṣ and Sannār dams on it.[4] Egypt’s economy is dependent on the Nile River.
Egypt opposed the GERD as it saw its share of the waters reducing. Till the GERD idea, Nile waters flowed unhindered through Sudan to Lake Nasser. Ethiopia believes there will be no impact on annual flows to Egypt.
Mutual suspicion between the two populous neighbours has been at the root of the problem. Though differences have narrowed, the issue is awaiting resolution. The GERD contract for $4.8 billion was awarded to Salini of Italy (now Webuild). The German company Voith Hydro, will install the turbines along with the American company General Electric and the French company Alstom.[5]
Ethiopia has committed nearly 5% of its GDP to GERD and hence does not want a delay in its completion[6]. Itsdomestic fundraising contributed $3 billion while China provided $1.8 billion for linked works.[7] The GERD is an opportunity for Ethiopia to develop its power infrastructure, as 65% of people are not connected to the power grid.[8] It can become a power exporter as well as expand agriculture for its own development.[9]
However, the politics impede. Ethiopia listens to everybody but consults none. It participates in all meetings called by the UN, AU, World Bank, on the issue, but does what it believes to be right. It has continued to build the dam and now has had its second filling. The filling is based on the larger flows of the Blue Nile in the rainy season, which the reservoir captures, if Ethiopia does not open the sluice gates.[10]
Ethiopian sources say that they are proceeding as per the plans shared with Egypt and Sudan. At meetings, Ethiopia is always represented by its Water Resources minister while Egypt and Sudan invariably field their foreign ministers. Ethiopia projects the issue as one of water resources and not of security – unlike the latter two countries.[11]
Egypt first took the matter to the UNSC in June 2020, but that lost steam because the AU chair, South Africa, initiated a dialogue among the 5-member bureau of the AU, the three parties and invitees, including the US and the EU. This process has not been fruitful and meanders along, much like the Nile.[12]
Since then, the situation has altered. The AU chair has passed to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). President Tshisekedi of the DRC visited all three contending capitals in May 2021[13], but Ethiopia lacks confidence in the DRC as Chair. Moreover, the League of Arab States, of which Egypt and Sudan are both members, has adopted a harder line[14] which makes it difficult for the position of the League and the AU to coalesce. Ethiopia prefers the AU process, because it can better control the narrative of the Addis Ababa-headquartered organisation.
And there are now consequences of the Tigray conflict. With the start of the civil war in Tigray in November 2020, Sudan acquired a new role. Previously, Sudan played the middle between Egypt and Ethiopia on the GERD.[15] With the Tigray conflict, Sudan directly and Egypt quietly started to play a forward role. There is suspicion that Egypt, through Sudan, has been providing succour to the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF). The cost of the conflict, estimated at $2.5 billion, has dented the Ethiopian economy.
Sudan took the opportunity to reclaim al-Fashaga lands on the border, which were occupied by Ethiopian farmers under military protection.[16] Consequently, Sudan retains the area from where a humanitarian corridor can be opened into Tigray since Ethiopia has blocked southern routes into Tigray. Ethiopia resists this.
Now both Egypt and Sudan are united in asking Ethiopia to agree to a legally binding agreement on water flows, not mere guidelines. They seek clarity on how disputes will be resolved in the future. The tension has increased as they see the balance of power in the region shifting due to the Tigray war and the degrading of Ethiopian forces. The efforts to reduce it to a technical negotiation have now slowed. It is again a political and strategic pressure point on Ethiopia.
Ethiopia rekindles focus on the GERD to raise national consciousness which is dented by the Tigray civil war and the incomplete impact of the recent elections. The GERD is the main symbol of Ethiopian pride now – though ironically, it is the brainchild and effort of the previous leadership that the current regime disowns.
*About the author: Gurjit Singh is Former Ambassador of India to Germany, Current Chair of the CII Task Force on Asia-Africa Growth Corridor and Professor at the IIT, Indore.
Source: This article was written for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations.
References:
[1]Meeting on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Regional Relations, Security Council Report, 7 July 2021, Meeting on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Regional Relations : What's In Blue : Security Council Report
[2] African Union to hold meeting on GERD Thursday, Al Ahram, 23 June 2021, African Union to hold meeting on GERD Thursday - Politics - Egypt
[3] Benishangul-Gumuz Region - Wikipedia
[4] Sennar Dam | dam, Sudan
[5] Zvi Bar’el, Israel Catches Overflow of Egyptian Ire in Blue Nile Dam Dispute, Haaretz, 22 July 2021,Israel catches overflow of Egyptian ire in Blue Nile dam dispute
[6] Gurjit Singh, Timeout for the Millennium Dam, The Elephant, Time Out for the Millennium Dam? (theelephant.info)
[7] Raphael J. Piliero , Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam: Assessing China’s Role, USCNPM, 5 June 2021, Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam: Assessing China's Role - U.S.-China Perception Monitor
[8] Selling Egypt down the river? China supercharges Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam. - U.S.-China Perception Monitor
[9] Jack McMahon, The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a Big Deal, Borgen Magazine, 15 November 2020, The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a Big Deal - BORGEN
[10] Tewedaj Sintayehu, 2nd GERD reservoir impounding to be completed, The Reporter, 18 July 2021, https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/article/2nd-gerd-reservoir-impounding-be-completed-today
[11] Main points under the remarks made by Dr. @seleshi_b_a, Minister of Water, Irrigation and Energy of #Ethiopia, at the United Nations Security Council open briefing on the issue of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (#GERD). 9 July 2021, FDRE MFA website, FDRE Ministry of Foreign Affairs | MFA ETHIOPIA
[12] Communiqué of the Teleconference Meeting of the Bureau of the Assembly of the African Union Heads of State and Government held on 24 June 2021, 8 July 2021, Communiqué of the Teleconference Meeting of the Bureau of the Assembly of the African Union Heads of State and Government held on 24 June 2021 | African Union
[13] Ibid.
[14] Arab states call for UNSC intervention over Ethiopian dam dispute, Al Jazeera, 15 June 2021, Arab states call for UNSC intervention over Ethiopian dam dispute
[15] Gerd: Sudan talks tough with Ethiopia over River Nile dam, BBC news, 22 April 2021, Gerd: Sudan talks tough with Ethiopia over River Nile dam
[16] Containing the Volatile Sudan-Ethiopia Border Dispute OCHA Reliefweb, 24 June 2021, Containing the Volatile Sudan-Ethiopia Border Dispute - Ethiopia
The Politics Of The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam – Analysis
By Ambassador Gurjit Singh* On 5 July 2021, Ethiopia informed Egypt and Sudan that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia is undergoing its second filling. Cairo on…
www.eurasiareview.com
Geza Ulole
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Russia denies siding with Ethiopia in Nile dam dispute
Egypt interprets Russian reluctance to back its position in the GERD dispute as pro-Ethiopian, but Moscow says it is pursuing a balanced position between Cairo and Addis Ababa.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (2R) meets with Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (4L) on the sidelines of the 2019 Russia-Africa Summit in Sochi on Oct. 23, 2019. - SERGEI CHIRIKOV/AFP via Getty Images
Mohamed Sabry
@MohamedSabry079
TOPICS COVERED
Russian influenceWater Issues
August 11, 2021
Russia has denied taking Ethiopia’s side in its dispute with Egypt over a massive dam built by Addis Ababa on the Blue Nile, a main tributary of the Nile River.
While Ethiopia, an upstream nation, says the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is key to its economic development, Egypt fears the giant dam will imperil its water share from the Nile River, the country’s main source of fresh water. Egypt and Sudan, two downstream countries, have been seeking to reach a legally binding agreement with Ethiopia on the filling and operation of the GERD, a demand rejected by Addis Ababa.
As African Union-sponsored negotiations failed to produce any breakthrough, Egypt and Sudan requested a UN Security Council session on July 8 in an attempt to settle the decade-long dispute with Ethiopia.
During the session, Russia’s delegate to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzya, cautioned that the statements of a possible use of force to protect Egypt’s water rights should be avoided. The speech, however, was seen in Cairo as Russian support to the Ethiopian position in the GERD dispute.
But Russian Ambassador to Egypt Georgy Borisenko denied that his country supports Ethiopia in the GERD dispute, blaming the perception that Moscow was siding with Addis Ababa on “the misinterpretation of the Russian speech.”
He said in an interview with TEN TV that Russia, like other member states of the UN Security Council, thinks that the council was not the best venue for discussing water disputes. “Our position is balanced as both Egypt and Ethiopia are partners to Russia,” he said.
Borisenko explained that Moscow understands that the Nile River is a “truly existential issue” for Egypt, saying, “We understand the concerns of the Egyptian friends about the construction of the Renaissance dam.”
The Russian diplomat said his country is ready to work with Ethiopia to reach a negotiated agreement on the GERD. “We are ready to assist in this effort, including working with Addis Ababa to reach a mutually acceptable agreement at the negotiating table.”
A few days after the UN Security Council session, on July 12, Russia signed a military cooperation agreement with Ethiopia, raising eyebrows in Cairo.
The Russian envoy described the signing of the military agreement with Ethiopia days after the session as a “mere coincidence.” “The military cooperation deal is a framework agreement. It is one of routine agreements that Russia has signed and will sign with many of the world’s countries,” he said.
On July 24, the Russian Foreign Ministry denied any link between the military agreement with Ethiopia and the GERD dispute with Egypt, saying the deal “doesn’t have any destabilizing character” and is similar to joint cooperation agreements signed with other countries, including Egypt and Sudan.
Rakha Hassan, a former assistant foreign minister and member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, said Russia is maintaining a neutral position regarding the GERD dispute. “Russia has major interests in Ethiopia and does not want to lose any influence there,” Hassan told Al-Monitor by phone.
He said Russia, like China, is of the view that the UN Security Council should not be involved in river issues, as both have water disputes with their own neighbors. “These countries believe that as long as the African Union is dealing with the GERD issue, there is no need for the UN Security Council to get involved in the dispute,” Hassan added.
The former diplomat said Egypt should continue to mobilize major countries such as the United States, Italy, China and Russia to pile pressure on Ethiopia to help reach an agreement on the GERD. He said, “The GERD is a national security issue for Egypt. If the dispute is not solved peacefully, the situation will spiral out of control, something which Egypt does not seek.”
A research paper by the Center for Arab-Eurasian Studies attributed Russia’s support for Ethiopia to Moscow’s efforts to expand its influence on the African continent, taking advantage of the US estrangement with Addis Ababa over the Tigray conflict.
“Russia is still groping its way in the African continent and does not have the influence to impose its own vision to resolve any conflict, especially in a complex and protracted issue such as the GERD,” the paper read. “Whether Moscow supported the position of Cairo or Addis Ababa, this will not change anything, but Russia adheres to what appears to be a neutral position that carries with it support for the Ethiopian vision, and with it Moscow can achieve several gains for its national interests.”
Samuel Ramani, a tutor of international relations at the University of Oxford, said Russia considered a mediation role in the GERD dispute in 2019. He told Al-Monitor, “Russia, however, realized that Ethiopia is averse to any form of external mediation and that any attempt to arbitrate will just antagonize Ethiopia and produce no constructive results.”
“Egypt interprets Russia's reluctance to back its position in the UN Security Council as Moscow being pro-Ethiopian, but in reality, Russia is trying to balance between Cairo and Addis Ababa.”
Ramani believes that the progress on the Russian nuclear plant in Egypt, the resumption of Russian flights to Egyptian resorts and reports about Russian plans to expand its trading access to the Suez Canal “suggest that Egyptian officials are compartmentalizing their disagreements with Russia on the GERD, even if they are frustrated with Moscow's stance.”
“Back in 2019, Russia viewed mediation as the best way to balance closer ties with Egypt and Ethiopia. Now it realizes that mediation will actually undermine its balancing strategy. So Russia is pursuing a course of non-intervention in the GERD dispute, which is not unlike what the US and China are doing, and I don't see that position changing.”
Read more: Russia denies siding with Ethiopia in Nile dam dispute
Geza Ulole ,
..kuna wakati Egypt walitaka kuja kutuchimbia visima virefu Tanzania tusivute maji toka Lake Victoria na tusiungane na nchi za bonde la mto Nile kudai kubadilishwa kwa mkataba wa matumizi ya maji ya mto huo.
..Sasa hivi tena Egypt wana mgogoro na Ethiopia kuhusu mradi wa bwawa la kufua umeme. Ethiopia wanadai bwawa halitaathiri kiwango cha maji kinachohitajika na Egypt kwa ajili ya kilimo na shughuli nyingine.
..Egypt nao wanadai bwawa hilo na matumizi yake ya maji litawaathiri vibaya kiuchumi na kijamii. Wanataka Ethiopia watumie miaka kadhaa kujaza maji yatakayokwenda kuzalisha umeme.
..Kuna mataifa mengi ambayo yamejiingiza ktk mgogoro huo. Mataifa hayo yanaegemea upande, ama Egypt au Ethiopia kwa kuangalia zaidi maslahi yao, badala ya kuzingatia haki, na utatuzi wa mgogoro.
..Pia taarifa za wataalamu wa mazingira zinatofautiana. Zipo zinazotetea hoja ya Ethiopia, na zipo zinazotetea hoja ya Egypt.
..kuna wakati Egypt walitaka kuja kutuchimbia visima virefu Tanzania tusivute maji toka Lake Victoria na tusiungane na nchi za bonde la mto Nile kudai kubadilishwa kwa mkataba wa matumizi ya maji ya mto huo.
..Sasa hivi tena Egypt wana mgogoro na Ethiopia kuhusu mradi wa bwawa la kufua umeme. Ethiopia wanadai bwawa halitaathiri kiwango cha maji kinachohitajika na Egypt kwa ajili ya kilimo na shughuli nyingine.
..Egypt nao wanadai bwawa hilo na matumizi yake ya maji litawaathiri vibaya kiuchumi na kijamii. Wanataka Ethiopia watumie miaka kadhaa kujaza maji yatakayokwenda kuzalisha umeme.
..Kuna mataifa mengi ambayo yamejiingiza ktk mgogoro huo. Mataifa hayo yanaegemea upande, ama Egypt au Ethiopia kwa kuangalia zaidi maslahi yao, badala ya kuzingatia haki, na utatuzi wa mgogoro.
..Pia taarifa za wataalamu wa mazingira zinatofautiana. Zipo zinazotetea hoja ya Ethiopia, na zipo zinazotetea hoja ya Egypt.
Geza Ulole
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Ila ukweli unabaki Ethiopia ipo katika wakati mgumu na kama Egypt inataka kuichapa huu ndo muda! Maana wale watigrinya wameonyesha jinsi gani EDF ipo weak! Yaani Egypt inaweza kuwapa TLPF silaha halafu ikakaa kimya ikiangalia jinsi Ethiopia inavyosambaratika polepole!
..lakini muasisi wa bwawa la Ethiopia ni serikali na waziri mkuu aliyetokana na TPLF.
..sasa Egypt anataka kuwatumia TPLF kukwamisha mradi huo?
..pia TPLF au Watigrinya ni asilimia ndogo sana ya watu wa Ethiopia, sidhani kama watataka kupigana vita na Ethiopia nzima.
..Watigrinya sanasana watataka kujitenga na Ethiopia, kwa hiyo Egypt anatakiwa awe makini ktk kujiingiza ktk mgogoro huo.
..Egypt wamechelewa sana kuupinga mradi wa Ethiopia. Ilitakiwa mradi huo usianze kabisa, na kwa hatua mradi ulipofikia, Egypt anatakiwa atumie busara kuliko nguvu.
..Kwa maoni yangu Egypt anatakiwa ajipange jinsi ya kuishi huku bwawa la Ethiopia likifanya kazi. Mbona Israel wanadunda ktk taifa lenye ukame kuliko Egypt?
Haifungiki
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Vitu zingine zinafaa Uzi mpya
Geza Ulole
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hebu angalia genesis halafu wapi Mekelle ipo na sasa hivi wameungana na Oromo! Ethiopia si strong kama inavyojipambanua! internal strifes r bringing the country to its knees.
Another Tigray? The Horn of Africa nears the brink again
ON 4TH MAY 2021 BY SIMON TZOURBAKIS IN AFRICAA few months past, the Horn of Africa experienced an immensely costly conflict, the calamitous consequences of which are only gradually coming to light. Initially, Ethiopian prime minster and Nobel laureate Abiy Ahmed intended for a simple “law-enforcement operation” against the seditious Tigrayan Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF), who had fortified their native Tigray region in the northeast of Ethiopia. Soon after, as observers and press were allowed back into Tigray, reports of mass atrocities clearly refuted his narrative. At the same time, the aftermath of this war already threatens to affect different fronts.
The Tigray war has had major spillover effects for Ahmed, enflaming both a long-frozen border dispute with Sudan as well as aggravating Egypt’s opposition to an Ethiopian Nile dam. It is crucial for policymakers and observers not to avert their attention and let these disputes engulf the Horn of Africa in yet another humanitarian disaster. To that end, a clear-eyed look at the current disputes is sorely needed, especially in a media landscape highly polarised by contradicting narratives. It is crucial to dispel bellicose narratives and policies, adopt countervailing actions, and mediate the ongoing disputes in whichever way possible.
Al-Fashaqa
The disruptive effect of the Tigray intervention was felt beyond Ethiopian borders. In large part due to Ahmed having dispatched his Eritrean allies and militias from the Amhara region into Tigray. It is a shared animosity that united these actors, despising the TPLF due to the atrocities it perpetrated during a 30-year rule over Ethiopia (1991-2018).[1] Thus, the conflict devolved into genocidal warfare against the whole of Tigray, including forced starvation and mass killings[2]. Tens of thousands of Tigrayans had to flee this carnage,[3] finding shelter in neighbouring Sudan. Amhara militias advancing towards its borders caused alarm in Sudan. Specifically, Khartoum was concerned about the status of a long-disputed border area called al-Fashaqa. By virtue of a 2008 agreement, ethnic Amharans from Ethiopia were allowed to farm in this region, while Khartoum retained formal sovereignty. This compromise was necessary as two contradictory colonial-era treaties gave both sides a claim to this triangle-shaped area of around 12 km2.In response to the threat emerging from events in Tigray, Khartoum decided to strengthen its defensive posture. It did so by reasserting full sovereignty over al-Fashaqa, expelling resident Amhara farmers in late 2020. In Addis, however, Khartoum was perceived as opportunistically breaking the status quo of 2008, while its forces were distracted in Tigray. Tensions increased further as Khartoum received an influx of fleeing Tigrayans. Addis subsequently accused Khartoum of also giving asylum to suspected TPLF leaders, seeing this as a prelude to a Sudanese intervention in Tigray. Khartoum fired back, accusing Addis of supporting rebellious militias operating on Sudanese territory to regain al-Fashaqa.
GERD
With tensions already being thoroughly enflamed between Addis and Khartoum, their acrimony further spilled over into a regional dispute that has plagued the Horn of Africa since late 2010. It is at that time that a still TPLF-ruled Addis Ababa decided to start construction on the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). It would staunch a Blue Nile stretch flowing through its western Benishangul-Gumuz region, just before entering Sudan. Despite offering huge hydroelectric potential for Ethiopia, it is downstream countries like Sudan and Egypt that would have their water security jeopardised by the dam.[4]Although initially rejecting Addis’ right to exploit its natural features entirely, an Egypt swept up by the Arab Spring was unable to enforce its stance when Addis unilaterally started construction on the GERD. The current generation of leaders, Abiy Ahmed and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, have so far held on to intransigent positions, preferring boisterous and threatening speeches to compromise.
The GERD dispute saw al-Sisi renew Egyptian engagement in Eastern and Central Africa in search of allies, especially along the White Nile. This Nile-tributary originates in the Great Lakes region and gives its name to the so-called “White Nile Alignment” that has been assembled by Cairo.[5] On top of its African allies, multiple Arab states have also assured Cairo of their “absolute support” in the GERD dispute.[6]
This extensive international backing together with his quest for domestic approval and the saliency of water security, has driven al-Sisi to take a hard-line stance vis-à-vis Addis. Although having had to accept the completion of GERD as a fait accompli, he set a clear red line with the unilateral filling of its reservoir. Instead of choosing a cooperative tone, al-Sisi has chosen a domineering one to get his wish, declaring “no one can take a single drop of Egypt’s water”.
Ahmed, although having lost many international backers due to his Tigray campaign,[7] is nevertheless forced by domestic considerations to take a tough stance in the GERD dispute. Foremost among them is the centrality of the dam for Ethiopians’ national pride. Seeing as the dam would guarantee energy self-reliance, it has come to symbolise the country’s independence in general. The issue of warding off foreign domination is crucial to the Ethiopian psyche, it being the only African country to successfully repel attempts of colonialism. Ahmed’s stance is further cemented by the ethnic turmoil plaguing Ethiopia. As the Oromo people, who constitute Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, increasingly feel alienated by his consolidation of power within his Prosperity Party, Ahmed is ever more reliant on Amharan support. This alliance has forced him to take a resolute stance in al-Fashaqa and in turn also in the GERD dispute.
Where to go from here?
History has taught us that issues as sensitive as water security have to be dealt with extreme prudence, as no leader would allow another country to deny it access to such a vital resource. An example where such an issue was solved through an equitable and mutually beneficial agreement is the Diama Dam over the Senegal river in West Africa. However, due to multiple disputes and mutual distrust simmering in the Horn, achieving such a solution will take a concerted effort by both regional and international actors.Leaders must eschew inflammatory rhetoric and zero-sum stances in negotiations. Although the most recent effort by African Union Chair and CAR President Félix Tshisekedi broke down due to Ethiopia rejecting a bigger role by international actors (EU and USA), pressure has to be kept up. Third-party negotiators (EU, USA, and the AU) have to recommit themselves even during this time of Covid-induced overstretch. The livelihoods of the affected people must be put first, before any self-serving geopolitical interests.
Sources
[1] The Eritrean-TPLF rivalry has its roots in the brutal war the TPLF waged against Eritrean during 1998-2000, when it still ruled in Addis.[2] Especially in the south-eastern sector of Tigray, around the capital Mekele, where local Tigrayans were expelled or slaughtered to make room for settlers from the neighbouring Amhara region.
[3] The number of Tigrayan refugees fleeing into Sudan is estimated to be as high as 60’000, according to the UNHCR (18.01.2021).
[4] Egypt’s dependency on the Niles water is at a whopping 90%, since it is its only fresh-water source. This overwhelming reliance informs Cairo’s result stance when it comes to any attempts at regulating the natural water flow of the Nile.
[5] The White Nile Alignment includes Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, and the DRC. See Michaël Tanchum: “Europe-Mediterranean-Africa Commerical Connectivity: Geopolitical Opportunities and Challenges”, Med Dialogue Series (31), Nov. 2020.
[6] Arab allies supporting Egypt and Sudan in the GERD dispute KSA, Bahrain, Yemen (Hadi-government), and Oman.
[7] Former international backers that cut aid to Addis: US, EU, multiple UN bodies. This leaves China as Ethiopia’s only strong international ally.
Illustration
“Border tensions mount between Sudan, Ethiopia”, Ayin Network, 26.01.2021
Another Tigray? The Horn of Africa nears the brink again
A few months past, the Horn of Africa experienced an immensely costly conflict, the calamitous consequences of which are only gradually coming to light. Initially, Ethiopian prime minster and Nobel…
a-global-perspective.com
Geza Ulole
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Geza Ulole
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MY TAKE
Ethiopia should stay on alert...!