Barcelona
It's amazing how only one player can absolutely destroy an entire prediction, but that's what happened when
Sergio Busquets got suspended in the second leg against PSG and is unable to face Juve on Tuesday. Without the world's best holding midfielder, Barça's new formation, the 3-3-1-3, becomes almost impossible to figure out, but we have a few hints from the few games in which the new system has been used.
First, we know that
Javier Mascherano, Gerard Piqué and Samuel Umtiti will be involved. This back three is crucial, but without Busquets, that's where the fun begins: the natural, most obvious choice would be André Gomes, who has played multiple games as the holding midfielder, doing well in most of those games. But consider a few factors:
1 - The first time
Luis Enrique used the 3-3-1-3 against
Atlético Madrid, Mascherano was not on the pitch and the back three was formed by Piqué, Umtiti and Jérémy Mathieu, who was fantastic at the
Calderón but got injured in that match and hasn't featured in the new formation since.
2 - Juventus are very good at set pieces. Mathieu is very good at set pieces.
3 - Javier Mascherano has played holding midfield many times before and Barça's holding midfielder on Tuesday needs to be fast and mobile to deal with Paulo Dybala, who plays as a center attacking midfielder behind Gonzalo Higuaín in Juve's new formation.
4 - Mascherano is fast and mobile.
5 - André Gomes is not fast and mobile.
6 - Do you really not know where I'm going with this?
Yup, no André Gomes in Busquets' place, Mathieu on the left, Umtiti in the middle, Piqué on the right of a back three, Mascherano as the holder to deal with Dybala.
Piqué on the right isn't a problem because Juve's left winger is Mandzukic, who isn't quick and mobile. In front of Mascherano, Iniesta and Messi, with Rakitic and
Sergi Roberto alternating between center midfield and right wing, which worked wonders against
Sevilla (who played a 4-2-3-1 that day).
You think I'm crazy? Me too, but I think André Gomes in terrible form is too easy an answer. Something more complicated is coming, and the Atlético Madrid lineup with Mascherano in place of Busquets is the possible complicated thing coming. It could backfire, but don't be shocked if it happens.
Predicted XI: Ter Stegen | Piqué, Umtiti, Mathieu | Rakitic, Mascherano, Iniesta | Messi | Roberto, Suárez, Neymar