Interlinkages between climate change, peace and security

[Green Thoughts]

Some of the effects of climate change on security are more obvious and noticeable right away.

For instance, many islands and low-lying coastal regions are highly vulnerable to the threats of sea level rise, including saltwater intrusion, floods, and infrastructure damage, which may obliterate livelihoods and compel families to relocate.

Example, scientific studies predicted that Mafia Island could be submerged due to catastrophic rise in sea level caused by melting of polar ice around 2100. Other effects are more complex and manifest through channels like rising inequality, food insecurity, and poverty.

The cascading effects of climate change may also manifest at the level of complex human systems, where they may have an impact on geopolitical stability, global food prices, and employment markets.

This interaction between climate change and other elements has the potential to impact human, community, state and international security when critical thresholds are exceeded and coping capability is impaired.

Live examples of the inter-linkages.

- Water shortages caused by rainfall fluctuation might expose women and children who are responsible for water collection in 80% of households to increased risks of sexual and gender-based violence as they are forced to walk farther to collect water

- Increased temperatures, drought, and sea level rise create more volatile food prices, increase competition for natural resources and make livelihoods less secure.

- The increase in climate change-related extreme weather events is already creating new demands for militaries in their capacity as first responders. In addition they have costly impacts on military installations and capacities, especially naval bases.

 

[kinjekitile70]

Baadhi ya athari za usalama za mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa ni dhahiri zaidi na zinaonekana mara moja. Kwa mfano, visiwa vingi na maeneo ya ukanda wa chini wa pwani yako katika hatari kubwa ya vitisho vya kupanda kwa kina cha bahari, ikiwa ni pamoja na kuingiliwa na maji ya chumvi, mafuriko na uharibifu wa miundombinu, ambayo inaweza kuharibu maisha na kulazimisha familia kuhama.

Kwa mfano, tafiti za kisayansi zimetabiri kuwa Kisiwa cha Mafia kinaweza kuzamishwa na maji kutokana na janga la kupanda kwa kina cha bahari kulikosababishwa na kuyeyuka kwa barafu kwenye ncha ya mwaka wa 2100. Athari zingine ni ngumu zaidi na hujidhihirisha kama njia kama vile kuongezeka kwa ukosefu wa usawa, uhaba wa chakula na umaskini.

Madhara ya kushuka kwa mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa yanaweza pia kucheza katika kiwango cha mifumo changamano ya binadamu, ambapo yanaweza kuathiri utulivu wa kijiografia, bei ya chakula duniani na soko la ajira. Mwingiliano huu kati ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa na vipengele vingine unaweza kuathiri usalama wa binadamu, jamii, serikali na kimataifa wakati vizingiti muhimu vinapopitwa na uwezo wa kukabiliana na hali umeharibika.

Mifano hai ya miunganisho. - Uhaba wa maji unaosababishwa na kubadilika kwa mvua unaweza kuwaweka wanawake na watoto ambao wana jukumu la kukusanya maji katika 80% ya kaya katika hatari kubwa ya unyanyasaji wa kijinsia na kijinsia, kwani wanalazimika kutembea zaidi kuchota maji.

Kuongezeka kwa halijoto, ukame na kuongezeka kwa viwango vya bahari husababisha bei tete ya vyakula, kuongeza ushindani wa maliasili na kufanya maisha kuwa salama. - Ongezeko la matukio ya hali mbaya ya hewa yanayohusiana na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa tayari yanaleta mahitaji mapya kwa wanajeshi kama washiriki wa kwanza. Zaidi ya hayo, yana madhara ya gharama kubwa kwa vifaa na uwezo wa kijeshi, hasa besi za majini.