Kenya debt to GDP ratio has officially crossed a 90% mark

Kenya debt to GDP ratio has officially crossed a 90% mark

Kenya’s debt ceiling is set to cross the current Sh9 trillion as the National Treasury faces one of the most challenging moments of preparing the 2021/22 budget amid revenue constraints.

Sources at the National Treasury Monday said that the new limit could be in the region of Sh12 trillion as per the proposed amendments to the Public Finance Management (National Government) Regulation.

The law changes are expected to be introduced once Parliament resumes from the long Christmas recess next month.

National Treasury Cabinet Secretary Ukur Yatani did not respond to our enquiries on the proposed amendments to increase the ceiling.

However, Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichung’wah, who chaired the National Assembly’s Budget and Appropriations Committee (BAC) that approved the 2019 amendments to raise the ceiling, said that the government has no alternative but to borrow.

“Unless they increase the debt ceiling by amending the regulations, the country will not have a budget,” Mr Ichung’wah, an accountant, said.

The proposal to raise the debt ceiling comes in barely two years of Parliament voting to amend the regulations to increase the country’s debt ceiling from the then 50 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the net present value (NPV) to the numerical figure of Sh9 trillion.

Debt to GDP ratio imefika 100 %
 
Mmepokea IMF loan of around $2.5bln! Fanya mahesabu lazy ass!
Wewe unajua jinsi loan ya IMF inavyokuwa disbursed? Loan za IMF huwa zinatolewa kidogo kidogo in tranches. Sasa hivi tumepokea ksh 34 billion pekee. Lazima tumeet certain conditions ndio zitoke. Tusipomeet those conditions basi hazitoki.
 
Wewe unajua jinsi loan ya IMF inavyokuwa disbursed? Loan za IMF huwa zinatolewa kidogo kidogo in tranches. Sasa hivi tumepokea ksh 34 billion pekee. Lazima tumeet certain conditions ndio zitoke. Tusipomeet those conditions basi hazitoki.
kwahiyo unakataa hamjapewa $2.5 bln? 🤣 🤣 🙆‍♂️ ☝️
 

Kenya’s economy slumped into recession after 18 years in September​

By Kepha Muiruri For Citizen Digital
time updated
Published on: January 28, 2021 08:26 (EAT)



Kenya's economy slumped into recession after 18 years in September

File image of Nairobi City. PHOTO| COURTESY

In Summary​

  • The contraction in growth was preceded by the first GDP contraction since September 2008 with GDP slumping by 5.5 per cent (revised from -5.7 per cent) between April and June.
  • While the government had moved to lessen restrictions on enterprise following the initial COVID-19, the retention of tough measures including a night time curfew alongside the closure of schools continues to inhibit economic activity.
  • The accommodations and restaurant sector for instance marked a 57.9 per cent contraction in growth following up a steeper 83.2 per cent decline in Q2 while the education sector shrunk by 41.9 per cent.

The Kenyan economy sunk to its first recession after exactly 18 years in September 2020 with gross domestic product (GDP) falling by 1.1 per cent in the third quarter.

The contraction in growth was preceded by the first GDP contraction since September 2008 with GDP slumping by 5.5 per cent (revised from -5.7 per cent) between April and June.

While the government had moved to lessen restrictions on enterprise following the initial COVID-19, the retention of tough measures including a night time curfew alongside the closure of schools continued to inhibit economic activity.

“The contraction was much lower than that recorded during the previous quarter largely against a backdrop of partial easing of COVID-19 containment measures that facilitated gradual resumption of a number of economic activities,” KNBS said in its quarter 3 GDP report published on Wednesday.

The hospitality and education sectors continued to bear the brunt of the pandemic as travel remained interrupted and school gates were shut.

The accommodations and restaurant sector for instance marked a 57.9 per cent contraction in growth following up a steeper 83.2 per cent decline in Q2 while the education sector shrunk by 41.9 per cent.

Other sectors to witness contraction in the period included manufacturing (-3.2%), wholesale & retail (-2.5%) and other services (-4.5%).

Moreover taxes on products declined by 4.2 per cent on the back of tax relief measures by government to cushion against the effects of the COVID-19 on the economy.

The economy however continued to find respite in the resilient agriculture sector which registered a higher 6.3 per cent growth from 5 per cent at the same time in 2019.

The standout performance was supported by increases in tea production, exports of fruit and sugar production according to the statistician’s office.

The solid growth in agriculture was supplemented by expansion in other sectors including construction (16.2%), ICT (7.3%), mining (18.2%), finance (5.3%) and real estate (5.3%).

According to the KNBS, Kenya’s last recession — defined loosely as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP growth — was registered between June and September 2002.

The recession definition however defers in various quarters with the US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) describing recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy and lasting more than a few months.

This effect is mirrored in real GDP growth, incomes, employment, industrial production and wholesale & retail sales.

The third quarter contraction however carried mixed signals with employment for instance rebounding with 1.8 million jobs created after 1.7 million job losses in the Q2.

The economy is however projected to have recovered in the fourth quarter to December anchoring better prospects for 2021 growth.

“Leading indicators for the Kenyan economy point to a recovery particularly in the fourth quarter of 2020, from the disruptions earlier in the year. This recovery is supported largely by strong performance in the agriculture and construction sectors, resilient exports, and continued recovery in manufacturing and services,” the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) said in a statement on Wednesday.

“Against this performance and the favourable global outlook, the economy is expected to rebound strongly in 2021, supported by recovery in the services sectors particularly education, manufacturing, resilient agriculture and the ongoing policy support through the Government’s economic recovery plan.”

 

Kenya’s economy slumped into recession after 18 years in September​

By Kepha Muiruri For Citizen Digital
time updated
Published on: January 28, 2021 08:26 (EAT)



Kenya's economy slumped into recession after 18 years in September's economy slumped into recession after 18 years in September

File image of Nairobi City. PHOTO| COURTESY

In Summary​

  • The contraction in growth was preceded by the first GDP contraction since September 2008 with GDP slumping by 5.5 per cent (revised from -5.7 per cent) between April and June.
  • While the government had moved to lessen restrictions on enterprise following the initial COVID-19, the retention of tough measures including a night time curfew alongside the closure of schools continues to inhibit economic activity.
  • The accommodations and restaurant sector for instance marked a 57.9 per cent contraction in growth following up a steeper 83.2 per cent decline in Q2 while the education sector shrunk by 41.9 per cent.

The Kenyan economy sunk to its first recession after exactly 18 years in September 2020 with gross domestic product (GDP) falling by 1.1 per cent in the third quarter.

The contraction in growth was preceded by the first GDP contraction since September 2008 with GDP slumping by 5.5 per cent (revised from -5.7 per cent) between April and June.

While the government had moved to lessen restrictions on enterprise following the initial COVID-19, the retention of tough measures including a night time curfew alongside the closure of schools continued to inhibit economic activity.

“The contraction was much lower than that recorded during the previous quarter largely against a backdrop of partial easing of COVID-19 containment measures that facilitated gradual resumption of a number of economic activities,” KNBS said in its quarter 3 GDP report published on Wednesday.

The hospitality and education sectors continued to bear the brunt of the pandemic as travel remained interrupted and school gates were shut.

The accommodations and restaurant sector for instance marked a 57.9 per cent contraction in growth following up a steeper 83.2 per cent decline in Q2 while the education sector shrunk by 41.9 per cent.

Other sectors to witness contraction in the period included manufacturing (-3.2%), wholesale & retail (-2.5%) and other services (-4.5%).

Moreover taxes on products declined by 4.2 per cent on the back of tax relief measures by government to cushion against the effects of the COVID-19 on the economy.

The economy however continued to find respite in the resilient agriculture sector which registered a higher 6.3 per cent growth from 5 per cent at the same time in 2019.

The standout performance was supported by increases in tea production, exports of fruit and sugar production according to the statistician’s office.

The solid growth in agriculture was supplemented by expansion in other sectors including construction (16.2%), ICT (7.3%), mining (18.2%), finance (5.3%) and real estate (5.3%).

According to the KNBS, Kenya’s last recession — defined loosely as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP growth — was registered between June and September 2002.

The recession definition however defers in various quarters with the US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) describing recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy and lasting more than a few months.

This effect is mirrored in real GDP growth, incomes, employment, industrial production and wholesale & retail sales.

The third quarter contraction however carried mixed signals with employment for instance rebounding with 1.8 million jobs created after 1.7 million job losses in the Q2.

The economy is however projected to have recovered in the fourth quarter to December anchoring better prospects for 2021 growth.

“Leading indicators for the Kenyan economy point to a recovery particularly in the fourth quarter of 2020, from the disruptions earlier in the year. This recovery is supported largely by strong performance in the agriculture and construction sectors, resilient exports, and continued recovery in manufacturing and services,” the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) said in a statement on Wednesday.

“Against this performance and the favourable global outlook, the economy is expected to rebound strongly in 2021, supported by recovery in the services sectors particularly education, manufacturing, resilient agriculture and the ongoing policy support through the Government’s economic recovery plan.”

Kwani saa hii ndio unajua? Ulikuwa wapi? Hata tuko karibu kutoka from recession.
 
Kenya’s debt ceiling is set to cross the current Sh9 trillion as the National Treasury faces one of the most challenging moments of preparing the 2021/22 budget amid revenue constraints.

Sources at the National Treasury Monday said that the new limit could be in the region of Sh12 trillion as per the proposed amendments to the Public Finance Management (National Government) Regulation.

The law changes are expected to be introduced once Parliament resumes from the long Christmas recess next month.

National Treasury Cabinet Secretary Ukur Yatani did not respond to our enquiries on the proposed amendments to increase the ceiling.

However, Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichung’wah, who chaired the National Assembly’s Budget and Appropriations Committee (BAC) that approved the 2019 amendments to raise the ceiling, said that the government has no alternative but to borrow.

“Unless they increase the debt ceiling by amending the regulations, the country will not have a budget,” Mr Ichung’wah, an accountant, said.

The proposal to raise the debt ceiling comes in barely two years of Parliament voting to amend the regulations to increase the country’s debt ceiling from the then 50 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the net present value (NPV) to the numerical figure of Sh9 trillion.


Ufisadi unawamaliza hawa nyang'au.
 
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