Kenya overtaken by Tanzania in mobile money transfer

They are very close. They need to be about 62B dollars on population of 60M. The cut off is $1,025 per capita. Their population growth rate is 3% - so they are adding nearly 1.5-2M people annually - that is the moving target - so next year they may hit 60B dollars but their population maybe 61-62M. Then Tshs is vulnerable against the dollar. I think give and take - based on their projected gdp & pop growth rate- they will get there around 2022.About 70 dollars for population of 66M

Tz will be graduating from LDC by then lol
 
Maybe you need to float Tshs so it can find it base. You can still do what Kenya's CBK does - which is to defend Kshs in open market according to monetary policies of the gov. The problem in TZ is forex control. Those are archaic tools in 21st century.
 
Fake news TZS is not controlled. KSH has been removed from floating category to managed category by IMF
 
Gdp is quoted in current USD. IMF has stated that ksh is 17.5% overstated..CBK differe with them and said gave conservative figures of 5% . In otherwords, GDP is 5-17.5% overstated. It depends on who's figures you trust. Its hard to trust corrupt GoK the rest of the world trusts IMF
 
We would have to wait for it to pan out - then we will know if IMF were right or wrong - so far Kshs is holding steady if not strengthening. CBK didn't not claim it was overvalued by 5% - they simply criticized IMF for using a new methodology best suited for advanced economy on Kenya. According to Njoroge(CBK Governor) who worked as economist at IMF - Kenya was being used a guninea pig in the new EBA Lite methodology.

Edit: CBK admitted if there was any misallignment then it was less than 5%.

Anyway ever since then I think Kshs has strengthen from 103-105 to 102-101 now.

 
Having previously worked with IMF is no ground for assuiming sm1 is credible. Look at Rotich and his idiotic credit cap laws, a fellow who worked with IMF.
IMF Applies fomular based on data reported by KNBS. They are not fools who pluck things from thin air a chooze to apply to country X and not Y. There is a reason and the reason is in the numbers supplied by KNBS - you cannot have your cake and eat it.
Best case senario depreciate GDP by 17.5 % and Appreciate $ denominated Loans by 17.5% . That is the real state of the economy and what the ordinary mwananchi feels..
The rest is Just PR and cooking Books
 
Rotich didn't initiate or support the credit cap laws. This was parliament - private member bill - that was and remain very popular. Kshs is not weakening -it actually strengthening - and until that happens - Kenya GDP will remain nearly 90B dollars.We still have 8B plus forex reserve - more than adequate to cover our imports for nearly six months.

Meanwhile your Tshs continues to get a beating - and is now exchanging at 2,318 to a dollar - the highest ever. So TZ nominal GDP is probably going to be less than 55B dollar.

 
1. Credit cap bill came from treasury and was tabled in parliament by duale in his position as leader of Gvt business. You cant be that ignorant!
2. You dont measure the forex reserve by amount of dollars but amount of months it can cover the import bill. Tz has 7.8 month cover while Ke has 5.6 month cover..Tz has highest in the region
3.You have pedestrian knowledge of currency valuation. Tz is cutting down on imports , substituting diesel with Natural Gas while at the same time ramping up exports. Such a situatuion needs a weak currency. A strong currecy would hurt exports and undermine benefits of import substitution. Kenya on the otherhand is substituting local industries with imports, even for basic agricultural goods like sugar maize and rice. A strong currecy is best in this senario
 
Mwaka wa 2018 tumefikisha $39B hebu leteni data yenu tuangalie vile tumewaacha mbali


Kenyans' 2018 mobile money use hits $39.4bn despite higher taxes | IOL Business Report
 
You really do enjoy lying.
1) Interest cap was Private Bill by Kiambu Mp Njomo. The treasury & gov had misgiving about it but eventually signed. Treasury has attempted nearly every year since 2016 to repeal the law but they know such a decision will never see the light of day.

In any case I think mobile lending that doesn't fall in the armpits of these laws already exceed lending to household. I think they are doing more than 150B lending now.

2) TZ forex reserves are 5.1 month (or maybe less now). I think they have forex reserves of around 5B for a import bill of around 10B. Kenya has forex reserve of around 8B for import bill trending toward 20B.

3) Currency valuation is not not monetary policy. Currency valuation is the value of currency as of now...not what TZ Central & Treasurry want it to be (that would be their monetary & fiscal policy) - .Maybe they want it devalued - and generally TSHs doesn't need any help there..it continues to get devalued as the country see decrease foreign investment & Inflows thank to Maguful mercurial leadership.Obviously the country is suffering because it has huge trade deficit and they are spending more dollars to import stuff. The external debt repayment is also becoming a steep climb.

TZ are not exporting anything more than previously. They are at best doing import substitution. Their exports are stuck around 3B - like kenya which are stuck around 5-6B. And unlike kenya that has impressive list of items it exports - most of the exports in your country are minerals.

In conclusion there is very little TZ can teach Kenya on matters economy. It very obvious that you have economy at best at 55B - and Kenya trending towards 90B - with 10M less people.

 
Typical Parroting with no evidence Table the evidence. I realy wonder why kenyans keep tabs with Tz, A country with a smaller economy, you should be comparing kenya with say SA, Angola or closer home ethiopia. Very unambitious
 
Like Geza your last resort is to ask for evidence when Google is a click a way.
1) Exhibit 1 :A Kenyan lawmaker who successfully introduced a law capping interest rates is now proposing to limit how much the government can borrow from local commercial banks and wants a five-fold increase in the core capital the lenders hold
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

2) Exhibit 2: BOT DEC 2018 Monthly Review.

Gross official reserves amounted to USD 5,078.8 million as at end November 2018, sufficient to cover about 5.0 months of projected imports of goods and services.

https://www.bot.go.tz/Publications/MonthlyEconomicReviews/DEC_18 MER Final.pdf

You can better Tanzania forex have been eroded with continued weaking of their shilling and things don't look.

Next time don't ask for evidence you can easily find. And indeed kenya has bigger fish to fry. I think we are mostly here to help Tanzania realize they need to stop their petty jealously & competition, embrace kenyans as brothers and most importantly learn from Kenya!

Typical Parroting with no evidence Table the evidence. I realy wonder why kenyans keep tabs with Tz, A country with a smaller economy, you should be comparing kenya with say SA, Angola or closer home ethiopia. Very unambitious
 
Fake news TZS is not controlled. KSH has been removed from floating category to managed category by IMF
Shifting goal post to suit your position, dogo tulia ufunzwe, the same IMF does not dispute Kenya current GDP and further more he world bank has no issues at all with the KShs in compariosn the Tshs will loose by up to 12 % its current value by the end of this year, it will be trading almost 32 Tsh to1 ksh
 
I think there is confusion here. We got Central bank figures (39.5B) and CA (nearly 80B). I assume CA double count - for example in p2p - they would count the amount received and amount sent.
TBT Bantugbro

TZ annual transactions ni around USD 46 billion
KE annual transactions ni around USD 36 billion
 
Mkikuyu really trusts IMF πŸ˜€πŸ˜€ siku ya nyani kufa miti yote uteleza
 
Mkikuyu really trusts IMF πŸ˜€πŸ˜€ siku ya nyani kufa miti yote uteleza
IMF were just bitter that we didn't bend to their wants,they are still keen on working with Kenya even though our treasury seems to be shrugging them off nowadays!
 
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