Kenya overtaken by Tanzania in mobile money transfer

Kenya overtaken by Tanzania in mobile money transfer

They are very close. They need to be about 62B dollars on population of 60M. The cut off is $1,025 per capita. Their population growth rate is 3% - so they are adding nearly 1.5-2M people annually - that is the moving target - so next year they may hit 60B dollars but their population maybe 61-62M. Then Tshs is vulnerable against the dollar. I think give and take - based on their projected gdp & pop growth rate- they will get there around 2022.About 70 dollars for population of 66M

Tz will be graduating from LDC by then lol
 
Maybe you need to float Tshs so it can find it base. You can still do what Kenya's CBK does - which is to defend Kshs in open market according to monetary policies of the gov. The problem in TZ is forex control. Those are archaic tools in 21st century.
Currency haiko stable cause tumezuia exports of our major contibutors of foreign currency tht is cashew ...unahis govt kwann inazinunua cause world market haiko stable..ikiwa stable tutazi export tu cashew alone contribute over 600mil usd

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Maybe you need to float Tshs so it can find it base. You can still do what Kenya's CBK does - which is to defend Kshs in open market according to monetary policies of the gov. The problem in TZ is forex control. Those are archaic tools in 21st century.
Fake news TZS is not controlled. KSH has been removed from floating category to managed category by IMF
 
The estimates are thorough and they miss by points - not a wide mark. IMF & WB had estimated Kenya economy would grow btw 5.5-6% - they keep revising their estimates ( i think twice a year) - and economy right now look likely to grow at 6 or 61.% in 2018. The Q1 was 5.7%, Q2 6.2% and Q3 was 6%. We again are waiting for final figures of Q4 and that should be out next month - and Kenya will officially announce it's 2018 economic performance.

In 2019 they are estimating around 6-6.1% - I think we should see higher growth of 6.5%. There are some who estimate Kenya economy would grow at 7% this year. Most are downbeat about Kshs strength against the dollar and think we could see some depriciation. I doubt that would happen. Kshs resilience reflect our economy resilience. For it to depreciate that much - the rest of Africa will see a BLOODBATH. Tshs would have to depricate by 10% for Kshs to depricate 3%.

For this to have impact on our gdp - we have to keep KSHS stable - it appears 100kshs to a dollar is a sweatpot we have found - and we have to keep reducing our population growth - until we get to under 1-2%. That will give us a demographic dividend boost and will see our GDP per capita rise quickly - and we should be Upper Middle class economy (4-12,000USD) in 2030 or even before.
Gdp is quoted in current USD. IMF has stated that ksh is 17.5% overstated..CBK differe with them and said gave conservative figures of 5% . In otherwords, GDP is 5-17.5% overstated. It depends on who's figures you trust. Its hard to trust corrupt GoK the rest of the world trusts IMF
 
We would have to wait for it to pan out - then we will know if IMF were right or wrong - so far Kshs is holding steady if not strengthening. CBK didn't not claim it was overvalued by 5% - they simply criticized IMF for using a new methodology best suited for advanced economy on Kenya. According to Njoroge(CBK Governor) who worked as economist at IMF - Kenya was being used a guninea pig in the new EBA Lite methodology.

Edit: CBK admitted if there was any misallignment then it was less than 5%.

Anyway ever since then I think Kshs has strengthen from 103-105 to 102-101 now.

Gdp is quoted in current USD. IMF has stated that ksh is 17.5% overstated..CBK differe with them and said gave conservative figures of 5% . In otherwords, GDP is 5-17.5% overstated. It depends on who's figures you trust. Its hard to trust corrupt GoK the rest of the world trusts IMF
 
We would have to wait for it to pan out - then we will know if IMF were right or wrong - so far Kshs is holding steady if not strengthening. CBK didn't not claim it was overvalued by 5% - they simply criticized IMF for using a new methodology best suited for advanced economy on Kenya. According to Njoroge(CBK Governor) who worked as economist at IMF - Kenya was being used a guninea pig in the new EBA Lite methodology.

Edit: CBK admitted if there was any misallignment then it was less than 5%.

Anyway ever since then I think Kshs has strengthen from 103-105 to 102-101 now.
Having previously worked with IMF is no ground for assuiming sm1 is credible. Look at Rotich and his idiotic credit cap laws, a fellow who worked with IMF.
IMF Applies fomular based on data reported by KNBS. They are not fools who pluck things from thin air a chooze to apply to country X and not Y. There is a reason and the reason is in the numbers supplied by KNBS - you cannot have your cake and eat it.
Best case senario depreciate GDP by 17.5 % and Appreciate $ denominated Loans by 17.5% . That is the real state of the economy and what the ordinary mwananchi feels..
The rest is Just PR and cooking Books
 
Rotich didn't initiate or support the credit cap laws. This was parliament - private member bill - that was and remain very popular. Kshs is not weakening -it actually strengthening - and until that happens - Kenya GDP will remain nearly 90B dollars.We still have 8B plus forex reserve - more than adequate to cover our imports for nearly six months.

Meanwhile your Tshs continues to get a beating - and is now exchanging at 2,318 to a dollar - the highest ever. So TZ nominal GDP is probably going to be less than 55B dollar.

Having previously worked with IMF is no ground for assuiming sm1 is credible. Look at Rotich and his idiotic credit cap laws, a fellow who worked with IMF.
IMF Applies fomular based on data reported by KNBS. They are not fools who pluck things from thin air a chooze to apply to country X and not Y. There is a reason and the reason is in the numbers supplied by KNBS - you cannot have your cake and eat it.
Best case senario depreciate GDP by 17.5 % and Appreciate $ denominated Loans by 17.5% . That is the real state of the economy and what the ordinary mwananchi feels..
The rest is Just PR and cooking Books
 
Rotich didn't initiate or support the credit cap laws. This was parliament - private member bill - that was and remain very popular. Kshs is not weakening -it actually strengthening - and until that happens - Kenya GDP will remain nearly 90B dollars.We still have 8B plus forex reserve - more than adequate to cover our imports for nearly six months.

Meanwhile your Tshs continues to get a beating - and is now exchanging at 2,318 to a dollar - the highest ever. So TZ nominal GDP is probably going to be less than 55B dollar.
1. Credit cap bill came from treasury and was tabled in parliament by duale in his position as leader of Gvt business. You cant be that ignorant!
2. You dont measure the forex reserve by amount of dollars but amount of months it can cover the import bill. Tz has 7.8 month cover while Ke has 5.6 month cover..Tz has highest in the region
3.You have pedestrian knowledge of currency valuation. Tz is cutting down on imports , substituting diesel with Natural Gas while at the same time ramping up exports. Such a situatuion needs a weak currency. A strong currecy would hurt exports and undermine benefits of import substitution. Kenya on the otherhand is substituting local industries with imports, even for basic agricultural goods like sugar maize and rice. A strong currecy is best in this senario
 
Interoperable network impact on Tanzania

jul3mobilemoney.jpg

MONEY TRANSFER TECHNOLOGY: Records show that there are more than 25 million subscribers with access to mobile money transfer technology which is accommodated by all mobile phone companies operating in the country. COURTESY PICTURE


DAR ES SALAAM, Tanzania - In any country in the world, its unified national economy becomes stronger to a certain extent due to the circulation of local currency which among other tasks is to regulate the high rising inflation rates in order to build up stronger economies of the people and the community at large.

The growth of the national economy is always determined by the rate at which Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increases, and this is being contributed by all sectors of the economy in the country including communication sector.

GDP increase in the country is also determined by a strong local market exchange of goods.

Statistics by Tanzania’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicate that, Tanzania’s GDP keeps on increasing at an annual rate of between 6% and 7%. This slow moving rate is an indication that the country needs to put much effort into developing its own resources and achieve more in order to cater for the need of local demand.

In addition to that, the country needs to strengthen its economic and solidify major financial bases in order to widen the gap that still exists between the poor and the rich.

It is from this point of view that, mobile phone communication companies operating in the country established ‘Money Transfer Technology (MTT) systems whose major focus is to boost national economy.

With the introduction of MTT interoperable network in Tanzania, commercial banks which form part of country’s economy have been flourishing as customers make regular transactions to cater for their daily business needs.

Interoperability refers to the ability of different information technology systems and software that permit the transfer of funds from one mobile account to the mobile account of yet another telecommunication company.

The mobile telecommunication companies are MIC Tanzania Ltd via TigoPesa, Vodacom Company via M-Pesa, Bhati Ltd via Airtel Money and Zantel via Ezy-Pesa respectively.

With these companies, Tigo has become the only operator in Tanzania to offer interoperability with the rest of other operating companies, and Vodacom which joined the system in late 2015 has created the largest mobile financial eco-system in Tanzania.

TigoPesa services being the most acknowledged innovative technology has enabled its customers to enjoy a greater variety of the company’s services, now have access to Africa’s first universal mobile money exchange system.

Interoperability can help businesses manage costs, increase efficiencies through shared infrastructure and increase transaction volumes. The technology is among the last to seek a solution in industry wide standards for data management.

According to financial experts the technology has highly advanced and widely used although it is currently being dominated by four mobile phone companies operating in the country. The system has proved successful with the help of their potential customers who use their mobile phone handsets for easy facilitation.

It is now clear from the working systems that, “all cell phone companies operating in the country have merged with the main objectives of expanding the interoperability eco-systems in Tanzania’s mobile financial inclusion”.

An interoperable network already set up by mobile phone communication companies, aims at increasing the country’s economy by unifying financial systems which eases banking activities for the promotion of national economic development activities.

According to a Dar es Salaam based financial expert Mr. Ruan Swanepoel the MTT service technology is able to move funds in customers’ mobile wallets to boost mobile financial service ecosystem in Tanzania.

He believes that the interoperability is crucial to the success of mobile money and the wider goal of increasing financial inclusion. It is also a fundamental building block towards constructing a digital economy, enabling merchants and other start-ups to participate in the financial services ecosystem”.

Interoperability in Tanzania today is not exclusive to mobile operators, and also includes more than 25 banks. The country’s 16 million mobile financial users transact the equivalent of more than 50 percent of Tanzania’s GDP each month.

“Thanks to this growing network, Tanzania is now the leading place for mobile money in east Africa, overtaking Kenya

This model, which has the approval of Tanzania’s central bank, the Bank of Tanzania (BOT), allows all Tanzanian mobile money operators to create powerful new loyalty incentives for customers.

The Bank of Tanzania (BOT) says that, with the on-going technology the total balance of trust accounts held in commercial banks in the country which backs through mobile payment services has amounted to TSh.448.3 billion as at the end of January 2015.

BOT’s Director of National Payment Systems Bernard Dadi says that the number of registered active mobile payment services users for mobile phone companies who facilitated such financial transaction reached 14.2 million out of 38.8 million registered accounts.

According to him, “such meteoric rise has caused a tremendous development impact on the conventional banking services by enhancing their operations which in turn is a boost to national economy”.

This is contrary to the beliefs of many business stakeholders in the country who think that the persisting mobile money transfer technology would kill banking services as most customers divert their transactions and prefer the use of mobile money transfer services.

However, the BOT says that such services in the country has also improved liquidity in the banking system as the money which is circulating electronically are backed by funds deposited in trust accounts held by commercial banks operating in the country.

According to BOT officer, the system platform has enabled some banks to partner with the mobile payment service providers where the banks acts as agents for providing cash out services.

East Africa regional economic integration is a major development strategy that without mobile money transfer technology, to a certain extent trade across the border is rendered inefficient and ineffective as well. According to Dadi, with the cross-border mobile money transactions currently in place, more opportunities for business will be created for Tanzanian small-scale entrepreneurs.

In addition, the interoperability systems among mobile phone companies is expected to go at a higher scale and hence bring down transaction costs and fair competition to service providers which will result in better quality services, he said.

Statistics from the Bank of Tanzania (BOT) shows that, Tanzania is among the leading countries in the world in using mobile phones to pay and receive money.

Official records show that there are more than 25 million subscribers with access to mobile money transfer technology which is accommodated by all mobile phone companies operating in the country, of which nine million are active users of the accounts undertaking at least a transaction per month.

In just four years, from 2009 to 2013, the usage of non-bank formal financial services, mainly mobile financial services, increased from just under 7 percent to almost 44 percent, bringing the rate of financial inclusion from around 16 percent to close to 58 percent as per Financial Sector Deepening Trust.

By Kenneth Ofumbi, Tuesday, July 19th, 2016

http://busiweek.com/index1.php?Ctp=2&pI=5402&pLv=3&srI=69&spI=221&cI=11
Mwaka wa 2018 tumefikisha $39B hebu leteni data yenu tuangalie vile tumewaacha mbali


Kenyans' 2018 mobile money use hits $39.4bn despite higher taxes | IOL Business Report
 
You really do enjoy lying.
1) Interest cap was Private Bill by Kiambu Mp Njomo. The treasury & gov had misgiving about it but eventually signed. Treasury has attempted nearly every year since 2016 to repeal the law but they know such a decision will never see the light of day.

In any case I think mobile lending that doesn't fall in the armpits of these laws already exceed lending to household. I think they are doing more than 150B lending now.

2) TZ forex reserves are 5.1 month (or maybe less now). I think they have forex reserves of around 5B for a import bill of around 10B. Kenya has forex reserve of around 8B for import bill trending toward 20B.

3) Currency valuation is not not monetary policy. Currency valuation is the value of currency as of now...not what TZ Central & Treasurry want it to be (that would be their monetary & fiscal policy) - .Maybe they want it devalued - and generally TSHs doesn't need any help there..it continues to get devalued as the country see decrease foreign investment & Inflows thank to Maguful mercurial leadership.Obviously the country is suffering because it has huge trade deficit and they are spending more dollars to import stuff. The external debt repayment is also becoming a steep climb.

TZ are not exporting anything more than previously. They are at best doing import substitution. Their exports are stuck around 3B - like kenya which are stuck around 5-6B. And unlike kenya that has impressive list of items it exports - most of the exports in your country are minerals.

In conclusion there is very little TZ can teach Kenya on matters economy. It very obvious that you have economy at best at 55B - and Kenya trending towards 90B - with 10M less people.

1. Credit cap bill came from treasury and was tabled in parliament by duale in his position as leader of Gvt business. You cant be that ignorant!
2. You dont measure the forex reserve by amount of dollars but amount of months it can cover the import bill. Tz has 7.8 month cover while Ke has 5.6 month cover..Tz has highest in the region
3.You have pedestrian knowledge of currency valuation. Tz is cutting down on imports , substituting diesel with Natural Gas while at the same time ramping up exports. Such a situatuion needs a weak currency. A strong currecy would hurt exports and undermine benefits of import substitution. Kenya on the otherhand is substituting local industries with imports, even for basic agricultural goods like sugar maize and rice. A strong currecy is best in this senario
 
You really do enjoy lying.
1) Interest cap was Private Bill by Kiambu Mp Njomo. The treasury & gov had misgiving about it but eventually signed. Treasury has attempted nearly every year since 2016 to repeal the law but they know such a decision will never see the light of day.

In any case I think mobile lending that doesn't fall in the armpits of these laws already exceed lending to household. I think they are doing more than 150B lending now.

2) TZ forex reserves are 5.1 month (or maybe less now). I think they have forex reserves of around 5B for a import bill of around 10B. Kenya has forex reserve of around 8B for import bill trending toward 20B.

3) Currency valuation is not not monetary policy. Currency valuation is the value of currency as of now...not what TZ Central & Treasurry want it to be (that would be their monetary & fiscal policy) - .Maybe they want it devalued - and generally TSHs doesn't need any help there..it continues to get devalued as the country see decrease foreign investment & Inflows thank to Maguful mercurial leadership.Obviously the country is suffering because it has huge trade deficit and they are spending more dollars to import stuff. The external debt repayment is also becoming a steep climb.

TZ are not exporting anything more than previously. They are at best doing import substitution. Their exports are stuck around 3B - like kenya which are stuck around 5-6B. And unlike kenya that has impressive list of items it exports - most of the exports in your country are minerals.

In conclusion there is very little TZ can teach Kenya on matters economy. It very obvious that you have economy at best at 55B - and Kenya trending towards 90B - with 10M less people.
Typical Parroting with no evidence Table the evidence. I realy wonder why kenyans keep tabs with Tz, A country with a smaller economy, you should be comparing kenya with say SA, Angola or closer home ethiopia. Very unambitious
 
Like Geza your last resort is to ask for evidence when Google is a click a way.
1) Exhibit 1 :A Kenyan lawmaker who successfully introduced a law capping interest rates is now proposing to limit how much the government can borrow from local commercial banks and wants a five-fold increase in the core capital the lenders hold
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

2) Exhibit 2: BOT DEC 2018 Monthly Review.

Gross official reserves amounted to USD 5,078.8 million as at end November 2018, sufficient to cover about 5.0 months of projected imports of goods and services.

https://www.bot.go.tz/Publications/MonthlyEconomicReviews/DEC_18 MER Final.pdf

You can better Tanzania forex have been eroded with continued weaking of their shilling and things don't look.

Next time don't ask for evidence you can easily find. And indeed kenya has bigger fish to fry. I think we are mostly here to help Tanzania realize they need to stop their petty jealously & competition, embrace kenyans as brothers and most importantly learn from Kenya!

Typical Parroting with no evidence Table the evidence. I realy wonder why kenyans keep tabs with Tz, A country with a smaller economy, you should be comparing kenya with say SA, Angola or closer home ethiopia. Very unambitious
 
Fake news TZS is not controlled. KSH has been removed from floating category to managed category by IMF
Shifting goal post to suit your position, dogo tulia ufunzwe, the same IMF does not dispute Kenya current GDP and further more he world bank has no issues at all with the KShs in compariosn the Tshs will loose by up to 12 % its current value by the end of this year, it will be trading almost 32 Tsh to1 ksh
 
I think there is confusion here. We got Central bank figures (39.5B) and CA (nearly 80B). I assume CA double count - for example in p2p - they would count the amount received and amount sent.
TBT Bantugbro

TZ annual transactions ni around USD 46 billion
KE annual transactions ni around USD 36 billion
 
Mkikuyu really trusts IMF 😀😀 siku ya nyani kufa miti yote uteleza
 
Mkikuyu really trusts IMF 😀😀 siku ya nyani kufa miti yote uteleza
IMF were just bitter that we didn't bend to their wants,they are still keen on working with Kenya even though our treasury seems to be shrugging them off nowadays!
 
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