Bantugbro
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Msikilize JPM hapo kuanzia dakika ya 1:34:50
Last year transactions zilifikia Tsh 139.2 trillion which translate to Tsh 11.6 trillion monthly.
Kenya overtaken by Tanzania in mobile money transfer
Kenya overtaken by Tanzania in mobile money transfer
- Thread starter Geza Ulole
- Start date
Msikilize JPM hapo kuanzia dakika ya 1:34:50
Last year transactions zilifikia Tsh 139.2 trillion which translate to Tsh 11.6 trillion monthly.
Stano
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- Jan 19, 2019
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That roughly 60B dollars for Tanzania.
Kenya transacted around 20B dollars in 3rd Q of 2018 alone. Kenya mobile transactions (p2p & mobile commerce) I think matched GDP from 2nd Q of this year when it hit 19B dollars.
https://ca.go.ke/mobile-money-transfers-hit-ksh-2-trillion-as-penetration-shoots-to-100-per-cent/
2017 Kenya mobile money transactions value
Q1 - 11.7B
Q2 - 12.3B
Q3 - 16.5B
Q4 - 17.6B
Total for 2017 - 58B dollars
2018 Kenya Mobile Transactions value
Q1 -18B
Q2 - 19B
Q3 - 20B
Q4 - .? - not yet released.
So going by that trend - you can expect Q4 to be around 21-22B.
The total for last year[2018] will be around 80B - when GDP is expected to be around 90B.
This year 2019 is when mobile money transactions will probably exceed GDP annually . You're looking at more than 100B dollars.
And not this doesn't include mobile lending data - from more than 50 digital credit providers - who already have exceeded the normal banking loans to households.
Safaricom recently launched an overdraft facility - that has also flown off the shelf - netting more than 1B kshs in a week!
Kenya will continue to be global leader in mobile money. Tanzania is not doing badly. And so are Zimbwabwe & even Uganda.
Kenya transacted around 20B dollars in 3rd Q of 2018 alone. Kenya mobile transactions (p2p & mobile commerce) I think matched GDP from 2nd Q of this year when it hit 19B dollars.
https://ca.go.ke/mobile-money-transfers-hit-ksh-2-trillion-as-penetration-shoots-to-100-per-cent/
2017 Kenya mobile money transactions value
Q1 - 11.7B
Q2 - 12.3B
Q3 - 16.5B
Q4 - 17.6B
Total for 2017 - 58B dollars
2018 Kenya Mobile Transactions value
Q1 -18B
Q2 - 19B
Q3 - 20B
Q4 - .? - not yet released.
So going by that trend - you can expect Q4 to be around 21-22B.
The total for last year[2018] will be around 80B - when GDP is expected to be around 90B.
This year 2019 is when mobile money transactions will probably exceed GDP annually . You're looking at more than 100B dollars.
And not this doesn't include mobile lending data - from more than 50 digital credit providers - who already have exceeded the normal banking loans to households.
Safaricom recently launched an overdraft facility - that has also flown off the shelf - netting more than 1B kshs in a week!
Kenya will continue to be global leader in mobile money. Tanzania is not doing badly. And so are Zimbwabwe & even Uganda.
Geza Ulole
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And how about Tanzania's mobile money transfer for 2018 plus other loan facilities? R u trying to claim Tanzania does not have them? Do u know the effect of mobile interoperability to Tanzania? Ati Kenya's GDP $90bln? U r not even $70bln!
Stano
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You tell us about Tanzania mobile money transfer and economy. That would be more helpful than angrily ranting here.
Kenya GDP will this year end nearly $90B. It was $72B in 2016. We are just waiting for 4th Q figures that should be out around Feb/March but already the 3rd Q figures are out.
Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Report Third Quarter, 2018 - Kenya National Bureau of Statistics
2018 GDP figures - at current official CBK exchange rate (Kshs 101 to a dollar)
Q1 - Ksh 2.1 trillion - $20.5b
Q2 - Ksh 2.3 trillion - $22.5b
Q3 - Ksh 2.3 trillion - $22.5b
Q4 - ?
So you can see already without factoring the last Q - kenya economy is 65.5 - just 24.5B short of 90B - realistic we might close the last Q with around 22B - that will mean Kenya GDP will be around $88.5B up from I think 82B last year (2017).
Tanzania nominal GDP will probably close the year around 55B. If you're not "careful" Kenya economy might soon "double" your economy. Obviously this is mostly due to ever weakening Tshs against USD so hopefully you're doing fine GDP(PP) wise.
Kenya GDP will this year end nearly $90B. It was $72B in 2016. We are just waiting for 4th Q figures that should be out around Feb/March but already the 3rd Q figures are out.
Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Report Third Quarter, 2018 - Kenya National Bureau of Statistics
2018 GDP figures - at current official CBK exchange rate (Kshs 101 to a dollar)
Q1 - Ksh 2.1 trillion - $20.5b
Q2 - Ksh 2.3 trillion - $22.5b
Q3 - Ksh 2.3 trillion - $22.5b
Q4 - ?
So you can see already without factoring the last Q - kenya economy is 65.5 - just 24.5B short of 90B - realistic we might close the last Q with around 22B - that will mean Kenya GDP will be around $88.5B up from I think 82B last year (2017).
Tanzania nominal GDP will probably close the year around 55B. If you're not "careful" Kenya economy might soon "double" your economy. Obviously this is mostly due to ever weakening Tshs against USD so hopefully you're doing fine GDP(PP) wise.
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Geza Ulole
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Stano
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I gave you evidence from the horse mouth. The KNBS. I link you're quoting relies on 2017 WB global outlook. You should look out for one to be released today at Davos.
Kenya economy will end the year very close to 90B dollars - the data crunching is going on for last quarter - and we will know next month - it will be anything 88-89B as predicted by IMF last year. Tanzania will be around 56B.
If TZ are not careful then by 2023 when Kenya economy will be 150-160B - you'll be stuck around 70-80. That would be double your economy and you'll probably still be a LDC - while kenya will be approaching an upper middle class country.
You're growing at 6-7% while your population is growing at 3% plus - so per capita growth is about 3-4% compared to Kenya nearly 4% annually.
Kenya economy will end the year very close to 90B dollars - the data crunching is going on for last quarter - and we will know next month - it will be anything 88-89B as predicted by IMF last year. Tanzania will be around 56B.
If TZ are not careful then by 2023 when Kenya economy will be 150-160B - you'll be stuck around 70-80. That would be double your economy and you'll probably still be a LDC - while kenya will be approaching an upper middle class country.
You're growing at 6-7% while your population is growing at 3% plus - so per capita growth is about 3-4% compared to Kenya nearly 4% annually.
Tz_one
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Kuna deals chache we need to finalize kutuweka postion nzur mind you..incoming years we will
Sign
1..LNG Plant deal tutaanza ku export Gas
2..Start mining iron,coal and graphite..more likely we will see graphite products related industires like batteries ...we wont be importing iron if we mine our iron so construction cost will be low in Tz
3..With completion of major electricity projects our production will grow very fast
4 ..Hio SGR yetu itatumia very cheap electricity to run sio yenu mnayonunua disel uarabuni kuiendesha .oil price ikipanda na nyie cost of running inaongezeka
5..with more eletricity more industries
Hiv vitu vyote vinaenda sambamba unategemea GDP yetu ibaki kwenye 60-80bil usd ? Utakuwa huna akili kama huoni yote hayo..unahisi nyie tu ndo mna pace?
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tuusan
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TZ GDP was 56B last yr 2018,so how comes you expect the same figure for this yr?remember our economy is growing at 6-7% annually, so probably we gon hit 62B this yr if evething remains the same.
So if that is the case then by 2023 we might be close to 90 B when you'll be at 110 -120B ,don't be over ambitious
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Geza Ulole
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That data is January 2019 update!
diamond d
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Mnafurahiaaa jinsi CASHLESS SOCIETIES zinavyo andaliwa eee, haya sasa pia mkasome Bible Revelation 13:1...
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Teargass
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Stano
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Are we going to discuss your trading.economic website or data from credible institutions - 1) KNBS 2) WB and 3)IMF.
Kenya GDP 2018 anywhere btw 88-89B. Stop arguing.Tanzania Nominal GDP for same period [2018] will be 55-56B.
Ethiopia which was expected to overtaken Kenya but Ethiopia had the birr devalued and will end the year aroudn 86B.
There are two factors that affect Nominal GDP computation - 1) Economic growth rate 2) Currency appreciation or depriciation against USD and 3) Population growth rate for GDP per capita.
Today at Davos IMF or WB will release their outlook for 2019 - and we will see how this will end. Kenya will definitely be trending toward 100B - maybe 95B at end of 2019 and TZ will be lucky to hit 60B.
Kenya GDP 2018 anywhere btw 88-89B. Stop arguing.Tanzania Nominal GDP for same period [2018] will be 55-56B.
Ethiopia which was expected to overtaken Kenya but Ethiopia had the birr devalued and will end the year aroudn 86B.
There are two factors that affect Nominal GDP computation - 1) Economic growth rate 2) Currency appreciation or depriciation against USD and 3) Population growth rate for GDP per capita.
Today at Davos IMF or WB will release their outlook for 2019 - and we will see how this will end. Kenya will definitely be trending toward 100B - maybe 95B at end of 2019 and TZ will be lucky to hit 60B.
Stano
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All that is nice and great but who will commit to invest billions after seeing what you did to Acacia minning. Your LNG Gas is dead in water because Magufuli is too greedy. You SGR doesn't make sense - maybe if it was to be re-routed south to transport coal. There is hardly any serious cargo that you will find in Mwanza or Morogoro - so unless you lock Uganda down - I don't see how the tiny Rwanda or Burundi will help.
Bottas
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Currency yenu ya madafu sio stable against the USD ashaakwambia hapo juu
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Stano
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IMF will release their World Economic Outlook this afternoon.
World Economic Outlook Update, January 2019
Monday, January 21, 2019, Davos, Switzerland
2:00 p.m. Davos time (8:00 a.m. EST)
World Economic Outlook Update, January 2019
Monday, January 21, 2019, Davos, Switzerland
2:00 p.m. Davos time (8:00 a.m. EST)
tuusan
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Mwaka huu GDP lazima itapanda haiwez kua the same.ofcz pesa yetu haiko stable
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Stano
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The TZ economy is growing at 6.5% - but without a stable Tshs/USD exchange rate - then nominal GDP will not grow - coz everything get converted to dollars. But you'll be fine GDP (PPP). But hardly anybody uses GDP(PPP) as measure of anything outside poverty analysis internally. Creditors, Investors, name anybody will be looking at nominal GDP & GDP per capita.
Geza Ulole
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Estimates right? And every one knows u couldn't hit a 6% growth on urban GDP for 2018!
Stano
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The estimates are thorough and they miss by points - not a wide mark. IMF & WB had estimated Kenya economy would grow btw 5.5-6% - they keep revising their estimates ( i think twice a year) - and economy right now look likely to grow at 6 or 61.% in 2018. The Q1 was 5.7%, Q2 6.2% and Q3 was 6%. We again are waiting for final figures of Q4 and that should be out next month - and Kenya will officially announce it's 2018 economic performance.
In 2019 they are estimating around 6-6.1% - I think we should see higher growth of 6.5%. There are some who estimate Kenya economy would grow at 7% this year. Most are downbeat about Kshs strength against the dollar and think we could see some depriciation. I doubt that would happen. Kshs resilience reflect our economy resilience. For it to depreciate that much - the rest of Africa will see a BLOODBATH. Tshs would have to depricate by 10% for Kshs to depricate 3%.
For this to have impact on our gdp - we have to keep KSHS stable - it appears 100kshs to a dollar is a sweatpot we have found - and we have to keep reducing our population growth - until we get to under 1-2%. That will give us a demographic dividend boost and will see our GDP per capita rise quickly - and we should be Upper Middle class economy (4-12,000USD) in 2030 or even before.
In 2019 they are estimating around 6-6.1% - I think we should see higher growth of 6.5%. There are some who estimate Kenya economy would grow at 7% this year. Most are downbeat about Kshs strength against the dollar and think we could see some depriciation. I doubt that would happen. Kshs resilience reflect our economy resilience. For it to depreciate that much - the rest of Africa will see a BLOODBATH. Tshs would have to depricate by 10% for Kshs to depricate 3%.
For this to have impact on our gdp - we have to keep KSHS stable - it appears 100kshs to a dollar is a sweatpot we have found - and we have to keep reducing our population growth - until we get to under 1-2%. That will give us a demographic dividend boost and will see our GDP per capita rise quickly - and we should be Upper Middle class economy (4-12,000USD) in 2030 or even before.
Tz_one
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Currency haiko stable cause tumezuia exports of our major contibutors of foreign currency tht is cashew ...unahis govt kwann inazinunua cause world market haiko stable..ikiwa stable tutazi export tu cashew alone contribute over 600mil usd
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