Kenya’s SGR cargo volumes cast doubt on its viability

Kenya’s SGR cargo volumes cast doubt on its viability

Nah it did not since the opposition was divides the same way NASA is.
If you are in Jubilee, what is your consern about NASA unity? its none of your business, and in any case Did the so called divided opposition not boot out KANU from power and usher in a new constitution? Revolt 3.0 comming soon, dont blink
 
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That thing will be subsidised for its whole lifespan as the moment SGR on the central corridor is ready it will have a competitive edge think of 80 km/h vs 120 km/h for cargos! Think of a cheaper electrical run vs diesel run engines! Ooh God can't wait!
 
That thing will be subsidised for its whole lifespan as the moment SGR on the central corridor is ready it will have a competitive edge think of 80 km/h vs 120 km/h for cargos! Think of a cheaper electrical run vs diesel run engines! Ooh God can't wait!
hahahah waiting for the construction to complete hahahahahahahahahaha what a wanker
 
That thing will be subsidised for its whole lifespan as the moment SGR on the central corridor is ready it will have a competitive edge think of 80 km/h vs 120 km/h for cargos! Think of a cheaper electrical run vs diesel run engines! Ooh God can't wait!
Borrowing Eurobond to Subsidize another country's imports! As in borrowing money to give to UG & RW..Jubilee ni kichaa aisee
 
That thing will be subsidised for its whole lifespan as the moment SGR on the central corridor is ready it will have a competitive edge think of 80 km/h vs 120 km/h for cargos! Think of a cheaper electrical run vs diesel run engines! Ooh God can't wait!
Why does it nag you so much?
 
This guy mkikuyu timamu is well equipped aisee , hoja juu ya hoja , and good thing is, he knows mwasat and his gang are jubilee keyboard worriers from slums
 
Kenya’s SGR cargo volumes cast doubt on its viability
SUNDAY MARCH 4 2018
miritini.jpg

Taxis parked at the forecourt of the Mombasa SGR terminus. With the low cargo volumes and changes in pricing, will SGR become self-sustaining as soon as projected? PHOTO | NMG

In Summary
  • With the low cargo volumes and changes in pricing, will it become self-sustaining as soon as projected?
  • Before the launch of the service in January, the government had indicated that four freight trains would run daily — with a future outlook of eight daily trains — each carrying 216 TEUs.
  • But, at the current 12,452 tonnes per week, the SGR will have hauled on average, a mere 647,504 tonnes by the end of the year, casting doubt on the viability of the project.
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By ALLAN OLINGO
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At 5pm on January 1, the first cargo train arrived at the Nairobi Inland Container Depot (ICD), Embakasi, via the standard gauge railway, laden with 104 containers.

At hand to receive it were senior officials from Kenya Railways, Kenya Ports Authority (KPA) and the line operator.

Symon Wahome, the KPA head of inland container depots, said the train would revolutionise transportation of cargo in Kenya.

“The old train used to carry up to 30 containers, but now the new train can carry 216. Four trains will operate daily and we intend to increase these to eight,” he said, beaming with pride for reaching another milestone in the journey to modernise Kenya’s railway services.

Self-sustaining?

For the next three days, there was no cargo so the train did not make the trip. The next journey was on Friday January 5.

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Two months on, the operator has started accepting the reality of teething problems at the project billed as a game-changer in the transport and logistics sector.

With the low cargo volumes and changes in pricing, will it become self-sustaining as soon as projected?

In recent update, KPA said the volume of cargo transported on the SGR was on the rise.

“We had some 671 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) delivered upcountry last week, an increase of 233 TEUs the previous week. We have started seeing an increase in the usage of the SGR service,” said KPA managing director Catherine Mturi-Wairi.

Before the launch of the service in January, the government had indicated that four freight trains would run daily — with a future outlook of eight daily trains — each carrying 216 TEUs.

This would mean that on each day, the ICD would receive a minimum of 800 TEUs, making 5,600 TEUs weekly and 291,200 TEUs annually. But the train hit its highest number of more than 600 TEUs mid February, one-tenth of the envisioned capacity.

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Cargo shortage has hit the standard gauge railway’s goods haulage business, forcing Kenya Railways to delay the daily service. PHOTO | NMG


But the government is determined to make the service, which had been monopolised by truckers, work. Already, shippers and transporters are accusing the authorities of coercion, intimidation, boardroom intrigues and enticement.

Twice in the past two months, Kenya Railways has cut costs and by mid this month, a three-month offer that has seen the operator halve the cost of transporting goods from Mombasa to Nairobi will lapse, having attracted only a marginal number of importers.

William Ojonyo, chairman of the Kenya International Freight and Warehousing Association told The EastAfrican in Mombasa that achieving the requisite numbers will be a tough task “even if they decide to offer the freight services for free.”

“Before you place your goods on the SGR, it must make business sense. Under current conditions, it doesn’t,” he said.

Transport and Infrastructure Cabinet Secretary James Macharia is, however, confident that the volumes will increase, pointing out that the new service is just struggling through an initial set of bottlenecks before it picks up.

On Thursday, Mr Macharia reshuffled 14 out of 16 heads of department at the port of Mombasa as the country seeks to see through its directive for imported cargo to be ferried through the SGR.

No compromise

“We will not compromise on cargo transportation to Nairobi’s inland container depot. We are targeting to have six trains leave the port transporting cargo to the ICD daily beginning end of June. Currently we have 28 million tonnes of cargo arriving through the port, therefore, transporters should not be worried about loss of business when cargo is transported through the SGR. Nobody will be out of business. Even if you say eight million tonnes belong to Mombasa, 20 million tonnes will go to Nairobi and the maximum the SGR can take is 10 million tonnes. So we still have 10 million tonnes of cargo which can go by road,” Mr Macharia said.

At the outset, the country had planned to haul 4,000 tonnes per trip, peaking at 16,000 tonnes daily; 106,000 tonnes weekly and 5.5 million tonnes annually to break even and repay its construction and operational costs.

But, at the current 12,452 tonnes per week, the SGR will have hauled on average, a mere 647,504 tonnes by the end of the year, casting doubt on the viability of the project.

Across the world, rail transport dynamics are essentially market-driven, with the customer, and in the SGR case the cargo owners, having a major input. But the Kenya government last month directed that all imports coming in through the Mombasa port be transported by the SGR, setting off a round of protests from businesses.

“We arrived at this decision after consulting with other players, including container freight station (CFS) owners, and agreed to have goods moved by train,” said Kenya Railways managing director, Atanas Maina.

The bottom line

At the port, CFS owners and the clearing and forwarding agents, say such orders will kill their business, as importers will have to liaise with new service providers to access the Embakasi ICD.

“Initially, we agreed to have the Nairobi CFS mainly handle such cargo as raw materials and industrial inputs. Now that they have ordered all un-nominated cargo to be transported by the rail, thereby putting our businesses at risk,” said James Rarieya, the chairman of the CFS Association.

The CFS came into operation a decade ago in a bid to ease congestion at Mombasa port, which saw ships charged for delayed cargo deliveries, and these costs passed on to clients.

“Our business is made on volumes moved from port to customers’ premises and that is why the government directive is hitting our bottom line hard. We attract clients by not only charging less on storage but also giving incentives. It is seamless when we work with clearing agents and it is this wholesome package that endears us to clients,” Mr Rarieya said.

Bulk freight issue

But Kenya Railways deny intending to kill this element of logistics services, saying that they are only shifting a point of cargo handling.

“The Nairobi ICD cannot handle the 28 million tonnes. We still have a lot of opportunities for them to do business and I am certain that the CFS owners have identified opportunities at the Nairobi facility too,” Mr Maina said.

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Kenya's Transport and Infrastructure Cabinet Secretary James Macharia. FILE PHOTO | NATION MEDIA GROUP


For freighters and warehousing agents, who have been very vocal against the directives on cargo, only managing storage costs and improving the port’s efficiency will lure importers to the SGR.

“It is more about efficiency and KPA is still very slow. When cargo stays for more than four days, it goes to storage, which has to be paid for,” Mr Ojonyo said.

Traditionally, importers negotiate with clearing agents to get at least a month of free storage of their cargo and this is what KPA and Kenya Railways need to address to attract the much needed cargo.

“Within the KPA system, storage is a very expensive affair. For instance, the fine for a 20-day storage within the port is $2,100. You cannot attract importers by dangling cheap freight charges, then force them to pay high storage charges. It doesn’t make business sense,” Mr Ojonyo said.

Convenience

Manufacturers, too, who make up a substantial number of the cargo business clientele, have also noted that outside of the storage costs, the train’s ability to move bulk freight is limited. Last week, the manufacturers from Nairobi’s Industrial Area met with Mr Maina and aired their grievances on the limitations the new cargo service.

“One of the main challenges we have is that the current line does not have the capacity to haul bulk cargo which disadvantages us. We are also at a disadvantage especially that the last mile element is missing. The old metre gauge line offered direct access to heavy clients’ bulk cargo,” the manufactures said.

Kenya’s SGR cargo volumes cast doubt on its viability

TANZANIA BUYS TRAINS FROM NEW ZEALAND
Posted 4 years ago by Corporate Digest
An initial 34 Ganz-Mavag Class EM/ET electric multiple-unit cars which a South African rolling stock broker has acquired fromAn initial 34 Ganz-Mavag Class EM/ET electric multiple-unit cars which a South African rolling stock broker has acquired from Greater Wellington Regional Council (GWRC) for reuse in Tanzania and Zimbabwe has been shipped from New Zealand.
Hahahahahah Kumbe trains on that SGR are all second Hand from Newzeland.. wakidanganya heti "bullet train"
 
TANZANIA BUYS TRAINS FROM NEW ZEALAND
Posted 4 years ago by Corporate Digest
An initial 34 Ganz-Mavag Class EM/ET electric multiple-unit cars which a South African rolling stock broker has acquired fromAn initial 34 Ganz-Mavag Class EM/ET electric multiple-unit cars which a South African rolling stock broker has acquired from Greater Wellington Regional Council (GWRC) for reuse in Tanzania and Zimbabwe has been shipped from New Zealand.
Hahahahahah Kumbe trains on that SGR are all second Hand from Newzeland.. wakidanganya heti "bullet train"
The 44 Hungarian-built two-car EMUs entered service in 1982. They are being replaced by a fleet of 83 Matangi EMUs which GWRC ordered from a consortium of Hyundai Rotem and Mitsui in 2007, 2008 and 2013.

The remainder of the 42 Ganz-Mavag units which have been sold will go to Africa once the next batch of Matangi EMUs arrives in Wellington in mid-2015. One unit is to be retained for heritage purposes.
 
The 44 Hungarian-built two-car EMUs entered service in 1982. They are being replaced by a fleet of 83 Matangi EMUs which GWRC ordered from a consortium of Hyundai Rotem and Mitsui in 2007, 2008 and 2013.

The remainder of the 42 Ganz-Mavag units which have been sold will go to Africa once the next batch of Matangi EMUs arrives in Wellington in mid-2015. One unit is to be retained for heritage purposes.
csm_tn_nz-ganz-mavag-emu-boat_0be6cef142.jpg

New Zealand trains sold to Tanzania and Zimbabwe
 
That thing will be subsidised for its whole lifespan as the moment SGR on the central corridor is ready it will have a competitive edge think of 80 km/h vs 120 km/h for cargos! Think of a cheaper electrical run vs diesel run engines! Ooh God can't wait!

The reality is that both these railways won't have much to transport out since both these countries are not huge exporters of anything. It's not like the current narrow gauge rails were struggling to export millions of tonnes of cargo. There is not much to transport from this region unless we start serious manufacturing in the next few years. Kenya is just finding out what Tanzania will find out in a few years once its own railway is complete.
 
The reality is that both these railways won't have much to transport out since both these countries are not huge exporters of anything. It's not like the current narrow gauge rails were struggling to export millions of tonnes of cargo. There is not much to transport from this region unless we start serious manufacturing in the next few years. Kenya is just finding out what Tanzania will find out in a few years once its own railway is complete.
unajua mining projects lined up in Tanzania alone, nickel, copper, steel, coal, helium gas, nobium, coltan, rare earth metals, titanium and graphite aside farm outputs tobacco, cotton, coffee. ujinga wenu ni kujaribu kushindana na mining giant!
 
unajua mining projects lined up in Tanzania alone, nickel, copper, steel, coal, helium gas, nobium, coltan, rare earth metals, titanium and graphite aside farm outputs tobacco, cotton, coffee. ujinga wenu ni kujaribu kushindana na mining giant!

Interesting, first things first, please note that the Tanzanian SGR is projected to haul 17M tonnes of cargo per year. That's a whole lot of Cargo! Unfortunately, the details don't look good for the SGR just like the Kenyan one UNLESS manufacturing capacity is increased dramatically. Dar port mostly handles inbound cargo, currently handles only 2.4M tonnes of export cargo per year. Where will the cover come from?

1. Steel - Tanzania produces little steel (200k metric tonnes vs current demand of 800k metric tonnes). Common sense dictates that any future production from the Liganga steel plant (1.1m metric tonnes annual capacity) will most probably be consumed locally. See here and here.
2. Nickel - This project has yet to kick off since 2005. You do. the. math.
2. Helium - Apparently, helium gas will be transported via "giant airships" straight from the mines according to the mining company here.
3. Coal - Isn't Tanzania's coal is concentrated in the south of the country and not on the SGR's course.
4. Coltan - The plan is to smelt coltan in the country to produce niobium (see next point) which will be sold to other countries.
5. Niobium - The Panda hill niobium project is in Mbeya which I believe is in the southern highlands and out of the SGR's course. This though is the only feasible metal for export using the SGR if the smelting plant in Dar will be built as Rwanda, Congo, Burundi are all major importers.
6. Graphite - Tanzania's major graphite deposits are concentrated in the south-east of the country and Epanko, Nachu & Namangale graphite Projects would use TAZARA to transport said graphite to the port.
7. Tobacco - Now this is the one thing that makes sense. Tobacco is Tanzania's leading export crop and the growing regions (North East of the country) match the SGR's trajectory. Though the SGR will need much more than just tobacco exports to thrive.
8. Cotton - This also makes sense given Tanzania's growing areas are in the north-west. Production though is relatively low (~600k metric tonnes for 2016/17 harvest) assuming that all this will be exported and nothing retained for local consumption.
9. Coffee - This is Tanzania's major export crop. Tanzania produces 30 - 40k metric tonnes of coffee every year. Assuming all this coffee is exported, this makes just about 0.24% of the projected tonnage of the SGR. This is probably a week's haulage and a bad example of how to break even.

What the country needs to focus on (and not just Tanzania, Kenya too) is large-scale manufacturing that will ensure goods such as Processed agricultural goods - Milk (Tanzania owns one of the largest herd of livestock in Sub-Saharan Africa), Eggs, processed fish, Processed Honey - Finished textiles/carpets/rugs, leather goods, mobile phones, motor vehicles, laboratory equipment e.t.c (stuff that's actually manufactured in a company and not mined from the ground) are transported back on the SGR to Dar port and out to Europe and Asia. This is the surest way for the SGR to repay itself otherwise like the existing rail, IT WILL BE SUBSIDIZED BY THE GOVERNMENT. The Kenyans are already experiencing this, the Tanzanians will shortly learn this truth too. The good news is JPM has half seen this and is pushing for industrialization. Whether that will materialize in time to be utilized by the SGR is anyone's guess.

In conclusion, I'm not interested in TZ vs KE back and forth, I'm simply agreeing with the World Banks assessment that the region was better off upgrading existing lines instead of building new ones.
 
Interesting, first things first, please note that the Tanzanian SGR is projected to haul 17M tonnes of cargo per year. That's a whole lot of Cargo! Unfortunately, the details don't look good for the SGR just like the Kenyan one UNLESS manufacturing capacity is increased dramatically. Dar port mostly handles inbound cargo, currently handles only 2.4M tonnes of export cargo per year. Where will the cover come from?

1. Steel - Tanzania produces little steel (200k metric tonnes vs current demand of 800k metric tonnes). Common sense dictates that any future production from the Liganga steel plant (1.1m metric tonnes annual capacity) will most probably be consumed locally. See here and here.
2. Nickel - This project has yet to kick off since 2005. You do. the. math.
2. Helium - Apparently, helium gas will be transported via "giant airships" straight from the mines according to the mining company here.
3. Coal - Isn't Tanzania's coal is concentrated in the south of the country and not on the SGR's course.
4. Coltan - The plan is to smelt coltan in the country to produce niobium (see next point) which will be sold to other countries.
5. Niobium - The Panda hill niobium project is in Mbeya which I believe is in the southern highlands and out of the SGR's course. This though is the only feasible metal for export using the SGR if the smelting plant in Dar will be built as Rwanda, Congo, Burundi are all major importers.
6. Graphite - Tanzania's major graphite deposits are concentrated in the south-east of the country and Epanko, Nachu & Namangale graphite Projects would use TAZARA to transport said graphite to the port.
7. Tobacco - Now this is the one thing that makes sense. Tobacco is Tanzania's leading export crop and the growing regions (North East of the country) match the SGR's trajectory. Though the SGR will need much more than just tobacco exports to thrive.
8. Cotton - This also makes sense given Tanzania's growing areas are in the north-west. Production though is relatively low (~600k metric tonnes for 2016/17 harvest) assuming that all this will be exported and nothing retained for local consumption.
9. Coffee - This is Tanzania's major export crop. Tanzania produces 30 - 40k metric tonnes of coffee every year. Assuming all this coffee is exported, this makes just about 0.24% of the projected tonnage of the SGR. This is probably a week's haulage and a bad example of how to break even.

What the country needs to focus on (and not just Tanzania, Kenya too) is large-scale manufacturing that will ensure goods such as Processed agricultural goods - Milk (Tanzania owns one of the largest herd of livestock in Sub-Saharan Africa), Eggs, processed fish, Processed Honey - Finished textiles/carpets/rugs, leather goods, mobile phones, motor vehicles, laboratory equipment e.t.c (stuff that's actually manufactured in a company and not mined from the ground) are transported back on the SGR to Dar port and out to Europe and Asia. This is the surest way for the SGR to repay itself otherwise like the existing rail, IT WILL BE SUBSIDIZED BY THE GOVERNMENT. The Kenyans are already experiencing this, the Tanzanians will shortly learn this truth too. The good news is JPM has half seen this and is pushing for industrialization. Whether that will materialize in time to be utilized by the SGR is anyone's guess.

In conclusion, I'm not interested in TZ vs KE back and forth, I'm simply agreeing with the World Banks assessment that the region was better off upgrading existing lines instead of building new ones.

In addition palm oil in Kigoma, much more minerals in the Western and Lake Victoria area. FYI there is copper there aside the fact DRC exports most of their minerals from the East through Dar.

TRY to look at Lake Victoria basin mineral concentration maps n u will see aside gold, silver n platinum, plenty of other minerals exist including limestone n several gemstones in Morogoro n Singida. We have plenty of Uranium in Dodoma too. Uganda wants our gas to produce iron ore n no gas pipeline so far exists. U forgot Titanium too..
 
SGR should not be Judged as if its a business venture where the capital employed should have sensible ROI to justify the investment. SGR is like a road, there is no verifiable ROI on such infrastruture the benefits accrue to the country by making transportation effecient and cost effective for all. Just the same way a national referal hospital makes health accesible.
The Main Point of concern is the OPEX costs, how much is required to run the service, and This is where JPM has got it right, prefering Not To use commercial loans whose intrest payable monthly would cripple the working capital of the railway making the SGR fall victim to what all other rails have succumed to., Lack of money to operate the line and pay workers
 
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