Kwa nini tusichapishe hela mpya?

Kibunango said:

Nchi kama nchi inaweza kuzuia fedha yake isianguke thamani yake kwa njia kama hiyo ama kwa serikali kukataa kuishusha thamani kwa maelekezo ya WB au IMF.. Tanzania iliwahi kufanya hivyo katika utawala wa Nyerere. Na hata awamu ya Mwinyi kuingia madarakani alikubaliana na masharti yao na thamani ikashuka kadili vyombo hivyo vya fedha vilivyotaka.

Katika Nchi za Tiger miaka ya Mwishoni wa Tisini uchumi katika kanda hiyo ulishuka sana, baadhi ya nchi walikubali kushusha thamani ya pesa zao. Malaysia iligoma na kuifix fedha yao. Hali hii ilidumu kwa muda na hata baada ya uchumi wa nchi hizo kurudi kwenye hali yake, ringgit iliachiwa na ikashuka thamani.

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Mkuu unachanganya mambo ile ya kina nyerere na mzee ruksa au hizo tigers na hata china sasa hivi inaitwa pegging. Kuna aina 2 za kuthamanisha hela yako kupeg au kuacha market iamue. Kupeg ndio kama vile unavyosema 1USD ni say sh10 regardless of market inasemaje. Hata huo mfano niliompa SteveD kuhusu Zimbabwe ni kwamba wao wamepegi 1USD kuwa Zim$30,000 lakini market haiko hivyo, market ndio iko kwenye masextrillioni au makwadrillioni.

Tukirudi bongo hela yetu sasa sisi inafloat tofauti na zamani ndio maana exchange rate inaweza kubadilika hata mara kumi kwa siku. Mkuu kibunango hili suala si zito kama unavyolifikiria it is just a language well unajua inafanyikaje, leo unaanzisha kitu say inaitwa tanzanian dollar TZD na unaitengenezea utaratibu kwamba 1TZD ni sawa na shilingi elfu moja, halafu unaondoa shillingi sokoni unabaki na TZD. Tht is how it is done Mozambique too did it, Zimbabwe , Uganda, Germany, Hungary, The old republics of Yugoslavia etc.

Tatizo tu hapa linakuwa kwenye inflation maana let's say sasa si 1USD ni shillingi 1250 baada ya miaka 2 labda itakuwa ini shillingi 2000 basi hata hiyo TZD inakuwa 2. Huoni kama inapendeza hiyo mkuu????

SteveD said:

Nyambala, tatizo jingine ni kwamba hela nyingi zilizo ibiwa hapa Tanzania zilikuwa kwenye foreign currency tayari. Na ndipo hapo ukaona watu wanaweza kuzipeleka hata kwenye ma offshore accounts...
SteveD.

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Na hapo ndio shida ilipo.
Na hawa jamaa wanaofanya huu uharamia wa kuweka pesa nje ya nchi huwa wanafikiri kwa makini kabla ya kufanya mambo hayo. Kwa Tanzania ya leo, sidhani kama bado kuna watu wanahifadhi mabilioni majumbani mwao. I stand to be corrected!

Kevo said:

Watu wamejaa porojo badala watoe sababu za kiuchumi zilizojaa akili!

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Ningekuona wa maana sana kama ungeandika sababu za kiuchumi ili na sie tuzichangie ama tukosoe, kuliko porojo ulizoandika hapo juu.
Unataka nani akufanyie kazi hiyo?
Think!

Nyambala said:

Mimi si mtaalamu wa uchumi wa la mtaalamu wa fedha, lakini nna wazo ambalo naomba wadau tulijadili. Kinachoonekana hivi sasa ni kwamba watu wengi sana wana cash money either kwenye masefu, uchagoni, au hata chini ya ardhi, sina uhakika pia kama hili ni kosa kisheria especially kwenye hii new tz order. Hii imedhihirika hata wakati wa kurudisha fedha za EPA ambapo kuna watuhumiwa walirudisha hizo hela cash kwenye mabegi. Kwa maana hiyo nadhani mitaani kuna hela nyingi tu chafu na ni mabilioni kama sio matrilioni. Hela hizi zinaweza kuwa aidha kutokana na drugs, ufisadi mabao haujawa exposed, illegal arms dealing na hata labda viungo vya binadamu who knows!!!!!!!

Hivyo basi si busara kwa serikali kubadili fedha kipindi hiki na ikiwezekana tukate sifuri tatu i.e mfano 1USD = 1250TZS iwe 1USD = 1.250TZD.

Katika kipindi hiki cha kubadilisha basi inaweza kuwa possible kunail down baadhi ya watu wenye mapesa yasiyoeleweka ( Note: I am not trying to bring the country back in those days when being rich was perceived to align with evilness). Pesa zinabadilishwa zote na maswali yanakuja next. Hii pia itatoa chanagamoto kwa watu kuweka feza benki.

Article hii inaweza kusaidia for wider thinking of this with the current world economic status: Redirect to the target website

Nakaribisha maoni..............

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Unaongelea mambo mawili tofauti kwa wakati mmoja. Jambo la kwanza ni kupunguza idadi ya tarakimu (i.e.,sufuri) katika noti za tanzania. Jambo la pili linahusu viwango vya ubadilishanaji fedha "exchange rate".

In short, exchange rate is a price just like a price of tomatoes, mangoes,etc. It only differs from the price of mangoes in that it is determined by demand and supply for foreign currency. Kwa hivi, kama katika hazina yenu pale BOT mnayo forex ya kutosha (i.e., supply) kuliko mahitaji yenu (i.e., demand) your shilling will appreciate. Otherwise, shillingi itandelea kuporomoka kwa kishindo.

sasa ukipunguza idadi ya sufuri kati noti ndio unaleta mgogoro zaidi. Yaani ukitaka kununua dola moja ya marekani ubebe kikapu kilichojaa noti za shilling moja moja, elfu moja?? Quality moja ya currency ni portability.

Kibunango said:

Wangeanza Zimbwabwe kama ni rahisi hivyo...

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Zimbabwe wako kivyao na sisi tuko kivyetu.....sasa kwa nini sisi tusifanye hivyo?

Mwanamalundi said:

Unaongelea mambo mawili tofauti kwa wakati mmoja. Jambo la kwanza ni kupunguza idadi ya tarakimu (i.e.,sufuri) katika noti za tanzania. Jambo la pili linahusu viwango vya ubadilishanaji fedha "exchange rate".

In short, exchange rate is a price just like a price of tomatoes, mangoes,etc. It only differs from the price of mangoes in that it is determined by demand and supply for foreign currency. Kwa hivi, kama katika hazina yenu pale BOT mnayo forex ya kutosha (i.e., supply) kuliko mahitaji yenu (i.e., demand) your shilling will appreciate. Otherwise, shillingi itandelea kuporomoka kwa kishindo.

sasa ukipunguza idadi ya sufuri kati noti ndio unaleta mgogoro zaidi. Yaani ukitaka kununua dola moja ya marekani ubebe kikapu kilichojaa noti za shilling moja moja, elfu moja?? Quality moja ya currency ni portability.

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Umesoma hii lakini?????????

Mkuu unachanganya mambo ile ya kina nyerere na mzee ruksa au hizo tigers na hata china sasa hivi inaitwa pegging. Kuna aina 2 za kuthamanisha hela yako kupeg au kuacha market iamue. Kupeg ndio kama vile unavyosema 1USD ni say sh10 regardless of market inasemaje. Hata huo mfano niliompa SteveD kuhusu Zimbabwe ni kwamba wao wamepegi 1USD kuwa Zim$30,000 lakini market haiko hivyo, market ndio iko kwenye masextrillioni au makwadrillioni.

Tukirudi bongo hela yetu sasa sisi inafloat tofauti na zamani ndio maana exchange rate inaweza kubadilika hata mara kumi kwa siku. Mkuu kibunango hili suala si zito kama unavyolifikiria it is just a language well unajua inafanyikaje, leo unaanzisha kitu say inaitwa tanzanian dollar TZD na unaitengenezea utaratibu kwamba 1TZD ni sawa na shilingi elfu moja, halafu unaondoa shillingi sokoni unabaki na TZD. Tht is how it is done Mozambique too did it, Zimbabwe , Uganda, Germany, Hungary, The old republics of Yugoslavia etc.

Tatizo tu hapa linakuwa kwenye inflation maana let's say sasa si 1USD ni shillingi 1250 baada ya miaka 2 labda itakuwa ini shillingi 2000 basi hata hiyo TZD inakuwa 2. Huoni kama inapendeza hiyo mkuu????

Nyambala said:

Mimi si mtaalamu wa uchumi wa la mtaalamu wa fedha, lakini nna wazo ambalo naomba wadau tulijadili. Kinachoonekana hivi sasa ni kwamba watu wengi sana wana cash money either kwenye masefu, uchagoni, au hata chini ya ardhi, sina uhakika pia kama hili ni kosa kisheria especially kwenye hii new tz order. Hii imedhihirika hata wakati wa kurudisha fedha za EPA ambapo kuna watuhumiwa walirudisha hizo hela cash kwenye mabegi. Kwa maana hiyo nadhani mitaani kuna hela nyingi tu chafu na ni mabilioni kama sio matrilioni. Hela hizi zinaweza kuwa aidha kutokana na drugs, ufisadi mabao haujawa exposed, illegal arms dealing na hata labda viungo vya binadamu who knows!!!!!!!

Hivyo basi si busara kwa serikali kubadili fedha kipindi hiki na ikiwezekana tukate sifuri tatu i.e mfano 1USD = 1250TZS iwe 1USD = 1.250TZD.

Katika kipindi hiki cha kubadilisha basi inaweza kuwa possible kunail down baadhi ya watu wenye mapesa yasiyoeleweka ( Note: I am not trying to bring the country back in those days when being rich was perceived to align with evilness). Pesa zinabadilishwa zote na maswali yanakuja next. Hii pia itatoa chanagamoto kwa watu kuweka feza benki.

Article hii inaweza kusaidia for wider thinking of this with the current world economic status: Redirect to the target website

Nakaribisha maoni..............

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Hilo la kupunguza zeros sioni sana umuhimu wake kwa kuwa Tsh haija depreciate ghafla na sidhani kama 1.25 ni convinient kuliko 1250

Kuhusu kubadili noti zote, hili ni zoezi kubwa sana ambalo litagharimu pesa nyingi mno, na sideeffects zake nazo zinaweza zikawa mbaya na sidhani kama italeta desired result, kwa mfano nini cha kuwazuia kuzibadili fedha zao kuwa dollar?

Labda utupe details kidogo ya process itakayotumika kubadili hizo noti, ndo tutaweza kujibu vizuri zaidi.

Kang said:

Labda utupe details kidogo ya process itakayotumika kubadili hizo noti, ndo tutaweza kujibu vizuri zaidi.

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Hii ni mojawapo ya issues nazotaka tujadili. Kumbuka hata hapa TZ tumewahi kupanga foleni think in early 80's kama kumukumbu yangu iko sawa kubadili fedha. Well nachokumbuka zilizokuwa benki zilikuwa zinabadilishwa automaticaly na ulizo nazo mfukoni au uchagoni unapeleka benki. That simple

Just a tip about Mozambique

.......The government's tight control of spending and the money supply, combined with financial sector reform, successfully reduced inflation from 70% in 1994 to less than 5% in 1998–99. Economic disruptions stemming from the devastating floods of 2000 caused inflation to jump to 12.7% that year, and it was 13% in 2003. The Mozambique's currency, the Metical (MZN), devaluated by 50% to the dollar in 2001, although in late 2001 it began to stabilize. Since then, it has held steady at about 24,000 MZN to 1 U.S. dollar. New Metical replaced old Meticals in rate thousand to one on January 1, 2007 bringing the exchange rate to 25 (new) MZN to 1 USD.

New Family Metical
June 27, 2006

The Government of Mozambique will be introducing the new family Metical (Mtn) on July 1, 2006. The new family Metical will be valued at 1,000 times the current Metical (Mt).
From July 1 to December 31, 2006 both the current Metical and the new family Metical will be in circulation. From January 1, 2007 only new family Meticais will be accepted as payment. From January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2007 "old" Meticais can be exchanged at local banks. From January 1, 2008 until December 31, 2012 "old" Meticais can only be exchanged at the Central Bank.

July 1, 2006 falls on a Saturday. The Government has announced that bank ATMs will be refitted over the course of Friday evening and Saturday. Since this process of refitting ATMs throughout the country may take more time than anticipated, it is advised to make necessary ATM transactions ahead of the scheduled change.

Ghana:

SPECIAL CIRCUMSTANCES: Effective July 1, 2007, the Government of Ghana redenominated the local currency, the cedi, introducing new banknotes ( Ghana cedi) and coins ( Ghana pesewa). 10,000 cedis = 1 Ghana cedi = 100 Ghana pesewas. Both currencies will be in circulation through December 31, 2007, after which date the cedi can be converted only at commercial banks or the Bank of Ghana. Travelers should be alert to persons who may try to defraud them with the old and new bills. The Government of Ghana has established a website, Source:
travel.state.gov

1.Fanya yote utakayofanya, hakuna kitu kitakacho replace production.Nyerere in his serendipitous way said it best, kipimo cha mtu ni kazi, pesa ni matokeo.

2.Kuchapisha hela mpya kuna gharama, kama huwezi kutuambia jinsi gani tutafaidika na kubadilisha fedha hizi unaweza kusababisha gharama zisizo haja.

3.Walioiba hela hizi either wameshaliona hili na kuiba katika hela za kigeni, hususan dola za kimarekani, au walipoiba tu kutokana na shilingi ya Tanzania kutokuwa stable walibadilisha hela na kuzifanya ziwe za kigeni.Zaidi ya hapo wanaweza kufanya hivyuo muda wowote ukizingatia wana ma benki na ma bureau de change.

Kubadilisha hela kwa sasa ni kujitakia gharama zisizo lazima, kuchapisha noti kuna gharama zake nyingi tu.

Kubadili fedha yetu simply kwa sababu ya mfisadi nadhani ni weak point.

1. Kama walivyosema wenzangu ni gharama(printing, distribution, collecting old ones, kuteketeza za zamani n.k) na inachukua almost mwaka mzima kubadilisha hela zilizoko kwenye mzunguko hivyo still mtu anaweza kubadilisha kidogo kidogo kwa muda wa mwaka mzima.

2. Tunaweza kufuta even 000 ili 1Tsh`=1USD but kama export yetu bado ni weak next three year itakuwa mbali sana. Lakini pia economicall we make our export expensive of which tunaweza kupoteza soko, But our imports becomes cheaper and we might endup being net importer tunamaliza foreign reserve tunaendup kuanzisha EPA ingine tena ama tunakopa .... madeni yanakuwa.... the trend goes on on...

3. Talk about madeni ya nje, Monetary Supply, talk abaout EA community this create practical problems kwenye implementation of the idea.

The bottom line ya kumaintain strength ya currency yetu ni kuwa strong forign earnings.
ukitaka kusoma zaidi kujua kwa nini tuo hapo tulipo soma Structural Adjustment Programs za IMF.

kwa mtazamo wangu sioni sababu ya kubadilisha fedha simply kwa sababu ya mafisadi.

mimi sio msomi wala mwanauchumi lakini nadhani cha kubadilishwa ni hawa viongozi wezi sio pesa, makaratasi yasio hatia.

Duh, ama kweli kazi tunayo!
Sasa kwa nini tuchapishe fedha mpya wakati target ni watu mafisadi ambao hawahusiani na thamani ya shilingi?..I mean hivi kweli kama kuna Mapanya ndani ya nyumba yako unaweza kubadilisha chakula unachokula ili hao Mapanya washindwe kula chakula kipya!..Dawa ni kuua hao panya nothing else ama sio basi wafuge kabisa wajulikane ni pets ndani ya nyumba..
Hawa mafisadi hawatakiwi kufikiria nje ya madhambi waliyoyafanya... fedha yetu imeibiwa na mahujumu tunawajua, kuchapisha fedha kwa sababu ya wahujumu hata nashindwa kuunganisha..

Again, hata mimi sio mchumi hivyo ila nachokifahamu uchapishaji wa fedha unakuja kwa sababu ya kiuchumi. Nchi kama Zimbabwe wamechapisha fedha na kujaribu kuongeza thamani ya fedha yao wakati uzalishaji wao unazidi kuporomoka..No matter what kama uchumi wa nchi ni dhaifu huwezi kuongeza thamani ya fedha yako...zaidi ya yote utazua inflation! pale demand ya vitu itapokuwa haitoshelezwi na supply hata kama watu wana fedha yenye thamani kiasi gani bado itategemea supply inayolingana na demand, laa sivyo kila siku watu watapanda bei kushindana kununua hata chunvi kwa sababu haitoshi kwa watu wote..
Hapa utaona kwamba waathirika mkuu wangu watakuwa mimi na wewe hawa jamaa zetu tayari wamejijenga kama Mugabe... Mkate unatoka South kwa ndege!

SteveD said:

Nyambala, tatizo jingine ni kwamba hela nyingi zilizo ibiwa hapa Tanzania zilikuwa kwenye foreign currency tayari. Na ndipo hapo ukaona watu wanaweza kuzipeleka hata kwenye ma offshore accounts... Hivyo kubadilisha kuna weza kusilete difference yoyote kama itakuwa ni kwa ajili ya kukamata wezi wa EPA na wezi wengine wakubwa.

Hawachelewi kuzileta hizo hela benki na kutoulizwa maswali yoyote, maana tulishasikia zile zilizotupwa nje ya benki without a trace and no one was reprimanded for that.

Either way, It is an idea with good intention.

SteveD.

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SteveD, lakini inaonekana bado mafisadi wana pesa chungu nzima majumbani mwao maana sidhani hizi shilingi 69 bilioni zinazodaiwa kurudishwa na mafisadi wa EPA (kama kweli zimerudishwa) zilitolewa katika mabenki. Ni wazo zuri sana kama gharama za uchapishaji noti mpya utakuwa nafuu.

Inategemea na stability ya pesa yetu na ukuaji wa uchumi wetu. Kama inflation ni ndogo, na uchumi unakuwa vizuri, hilo litakuwa ni wazo zuri sana. Hata hivyo, kama uchumi wetu unalegalega na inflation inapanda, kubadilisha sarafu hakutasaidia sana, na inaweza kuwa ni gharama isiyokuwa ya lazima. Zimbabwe walifanya hivyo mwaka juzi na mwaka jana lakini leo hii wanatumia noti za aina hii:







Watu wanaandika hundi za namna hii:

Argument kuhusu gharama za uchapishaji feza nadhani haiwezi kuwa strong mpaka tukijua what is the real cost involved na vile vile ni kwamba hata sasa pesa bado zinaendelea kuchapishwa kwa denominations tulizonazo. Well sina data ni kiasi gani kwa mwezi au kwa . Kama kuna mtu ana data hizi tafadhali azimwage hapa tujaribu kuanalyse

Nyambala said:

Argument kuhusu gharama za uchapishaji feza nadhani haiwezi kuwa strong mpaka tukijua what is the real cost involved na vile vile ni kwamba hata sasa pesa bado zinaendelea kuchapishwa kwa denominations tulizonazo. Well sina data ni kiasi gani kwa mwezi au kwa . Kama kuna mtu ana data hizi tafadhali azimwage hapa tujaribu kuanalyse

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Nadhani umenielewa vibaya kuhus hili la gharama. Nilisema kuwa ni gharama isiyokuwa ya lazima, siyo kwamba ni gharama kubwa. Katika hiyo gharama isiyokuwa ya lazima ni kama ifuatavyo:

1. Kuchapisha fedha mpya kunahitaji stencils ambazo zinahitaji kutengenezwa kwa gharama fulani; ukishakuwa na hizo stencil unabaki na kazi ya kuzitumia kufyatulia noti kadri zinavyohitajika. Itakuwa gharama isiyokuwa ya lazima kutengeneza stencil hizo huku ukijua kuwa kufanya hivyo hakuna faida yoyote kwa jamii.
   
   
2. Kila unapobadilisha sarafu, unahitaji kuanza zoezi la kuondoa ile ya zamani kutoka kwenye mzunguko; zoezi hili lina gharama zake ambazo ziyo za lazima kama kufanya hahkuna faida yoyote kwa jamii.

Nimekupata vizuri sasa mkuu kichuguu. Sasa tukitaka kupambana na hili tatizo la hela chafu mtaani tunafanyaje?

Nyambala said:

Nimekupata vizuri sasa mkuu kichuguu. Sasa tukitaka kupambana na hili tatizo la hela hafu mtaani tunafanyaje?

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Swali zuri sana. Nadhani jambo la kwanza ni kuimarisha wizara ya mambo ya ndani na ile ya fedha ili kuhakikisha kuwa serikali inawajua raia wake wote na mapato yao pamoja na malipo wanayofanya kwa watu wengine. Kwa mfano Marekani wanatumia utaratibu wa Social Security Number ambayo inatumika katika kodi na kufanya mapato ya halali ya kila raia au mkazi wa Marekani yajulikane. Nchi zote zilizoendelea zina utaratibu wa aina hiyo.

Jambo la pili ni kujenga sera nzuri ya utunzaji wa fedha. Kwa nchi kama Marekani, ukienda kununua gari kwa muuza magari ukalipa pesa taslimu dola elfu kumi, ujue unaweza kuishia kunakohusika, kwa sababu ya sheria za kuzuia money laundering.

Jambo la tatu ni kujenga utaratibu imara wa kukagua mapato ya raia wote kila mwaka kujua kama walilipa kodi sawasawa.

Inawezekana hayo hayatoshi ila yatasaidia sana kupunguza hela chafu mitaani.