Mkullo, Ndullu na Uchumi Uchwara

[DAR si LAMU]

Ulikuwa na bado upo sahihi; cha kushangaza ni kwamba Ndullu ni mmoja wa wachumi wa hali ya juu kabisa kimataifa na ameandika mambo mazuri mengi sana miaka ya nyuma covering uchumi chini ya Nyerere hadi Mkapa lakini hatuoni akiyatekeleza kwa vitendo; Lipumba ambae ni mwenzake as World Class Economists toka IV League nae anasema mengi sana sasahivi on the root cause of the problem and how we can get out of it; Kinachoonekana ni kwamba walimu ni wazuri kwa maneno yao, sio matendo yao. Kuhusu washauri wa Rais katika masuala ya uchumi, ni dhahiri amezungukwa na wataalamu wengi sana, tatizo labda wanamwogopa na wanajitahidi kumweleza yale tu ambayo wanadhani atapenda kuyasikia wakati ukweli ni kwamba JK ni msikilizaji mzuri. Kama mnavyokumbuka enzi za iddi amin - true story - alitembelea siku moja Central Bank of Uganda ghafla after uchumi kuanza kuporomoka na kukutana na gavana, wakiwa kwenye corridor akauliza "Mr Gavana, tatizo ni nini"? Gavana akajibu, 'it is inflation your excellency', Amin akasimama na kuhamaki na kumwangalia usoni , "the problem is inflation?????, who is this inflation individual?" Gavana kuona hali ngumu na kwamba ni tatizo kumkosoa Rais, akamwonyeshea afisa mmoja aliekuwa karibu yao na kusema 'that's him sir'; iddi Amin akatoa amri - "Give him V.I.P treatment right away' meaning auliwe, walinzi wakatekeleza hayo.

...Mchambuzi, naomba urudie kusoma ulichokiandika, kama vile kaandika mtu mwingine. Utagundua kuwa, majibu yako kwenye hizo para mbili. Soma -between the lines- ya ulichokiandika.

...Asante kwa majibu.

 

[DAR si LAMU]

Ulikuwa na bado upo sahihi; cha kushangaza ni kwamba Ndullu ni mmoja wa wachumi wa hali ya juu kabisa kimataifa na ameandika mambo mazuri mengi sana miaka ya nyuma covering uchumi chini ya Nyerere hadi Mkapa lakini hatuoni akiyatekeleza kwa vitendo; Lipumba ambae ni mwenzake as World Class Economists toka IV League nae anasema mengi sana sasahivi on the root cause of the problem and how we can get out of it; Kinachoonekana ni kwamba walimu ni wazuri kwa maneno yao, sio matendo yao. Kuhusu washauri wa Rais katika masuala ya uchumi, ni dhahiri amezungukwa na wataalamu wengi sana, tatizo labda wanamwogopa na wanajitahidi kumweleza yale tu ambayo wanadhani atapenda kuyasikia wakati ukweli ni kwamba JK ni msikilizaji mzuri. Kama mnavyokumbuka enzi za iddi amin - true story - alitembelea siku moja Central Bank of Uganda ghafla after uchumi kuanza kuporomoka na kukutana na gavana, wakiwa kwenye corridor akauliza "Mr Gavana, tatizo ni nini"? Gavana akajibu, 'it is inflation your excellency', Amin akasimama na kuhamaki na kumwangalia usoni , "the problem is inflation?????, who is this inflation individual?" Gavana kuona hali ngumu na kwamba ni tatizo kumkosoa Rais, akamwonyeshea afisa mmoja aliekuwa karibu yao na kusema 'that's him sir'; iddi Amin akatoa amri - "Give him V.I.P treatment right away' meaning auliwe, walinzi wakatekeleza hayo.

...Majibu yamo kwenye hizi paragraph mbili.

 

[Mchambuzi]

...Ninavyoona, inflation hii inachochewa na mahitaji makubwa ya chakula; nchi jirani kama Kenya, Zambia, Malawi, n.k zimekuwa soko kubwa la nafaka yetu. Kukosekana kwa umeme mara kwa mara kumepelekea gharama za uzalishaji kupanda; kwakuwa mafuta yanatumika zaidi. Utegemezi wa manunuzi mengi toka nje, yenye kutumia dollar, huku shilingi ikishuka thamani kumechangia; bei za vitu vingi vitokavyo nje zimepanda.

...Ningependa kufahamu, Mkapa alikuwa anashauriwa na kina nani. Watanzania, au Wamarekani na Waingereza?

Mkapa alikuwa na washauri wazuri wa ndani na nje, mfano Dr. Kwaku ambae ni Mghana but seasoned economist wa World Bank; pia Hernandos Desoto, a prominent South America economist ambae aana kitabu kizuri sana nadhani by the name of 'the misery of capital; pia alikuwa na vichwa vizuri sana pale hazina - kina Doctor Kipokola na wengineo; BOT bado kulikuwa na watu wazuri sana; lakini pia mawaziri wake wa fedha, especially Dr. Kigoda and Professor Mbilinyi were very sober, hawakuteuliwa hivi hivi tu kuongoza wizara nyeti ya fedha; uteuzi wizara ya fedha haitakiwi uwe wa kisiasa au kiurafiki, pale panahitaji high level of professionalism;

 

[Mchambuzi]

...Majibu yamo kwenye hizi paragraph mbili.

Sijakuelewa Dar si Lamu....

 

[Mchambuzi]

Sijakuelewa Dar si Lamu....

Dar Si Lamu, nadhani nimekusoma; ulichonichanganya ni uliposema 'paragraph mbili', ilikuwa vigumu kwangu kufahamu zipi hizo hasa, lakini i think in the post i made two major points and i am assuming that it is the very two points that you are referring to kwamba ndizo zenye majibu.......

 

[Mchambuzi]

Ningekuwa na nafasi ya kumshauri Rais kuhusu nani ampe nafasi ya kuongoza wizara ya fedha, ningemshauri aweke mtu makini ambae ana profession ya uchumi lakini pia ana shauku sio tu ya kujenga uchumi imara but pia kuonyesha kwamba kazi anaiweza na huyu sio mwingine zaidi ya Professor Anna Tibaijuka. Huyu kwanza is a good professor wa uchumi, ana experience in theory, research, lecturing na vilevile katika anga za kimataifa; na since ni Mwanamke, dhana ya mwanamke anaweza versus mwanamka akiwezeshwa anaweza will make her excel;
Mkullo ningemwamishia wizara nyingine akasaidie huko kwani ana uzoefu mzuri alioupata PPF akiwa DG, he makes a good minister but NOT finance; On the same token, kama sio Mama Tibaijuka then Amina Salum Ali, balozi wa AU kwenye UN; Amina Ali ni msomi mzuri sana wa economics, aliwahi kuwa naibu mzuri sana wa fedha wa Mwinyi, then waziri wa fedha ZNZ na she was excelling well and was a threat kwa wagombea urais ZNZ, mpango ukafayika akapelekwa UN;

Nafasi ya katibu mkuu ningemteua professor mmoja mzuri wa uchumi au mtu mmoja seasoned in economics kutoka Chuo kikuu cha Dar-es-salaam badala ya kuweka katibu mkuu ambae ni mtumishi wa kawaida wa umma; Nafasi ya Naibu Waziri ningeiacha wazi kwani haina tija zaidi ya uwakilishi wa mtu toka upanda mwingine wa muungano;

Gavana ningemwacha Ndullu kwasababu ingawa uchumi wake uchwara, yeye ni mchumi mzuri sana; mbali ya matatizo mengine yanayomfanya uchumi wake uwe uchwara, there also too much political interference at the BOT;

Ningemteua Professor Lipumba kuwa mbunge wa kuteuliwa halafu kumsukuma aingie kwenye kamati ya bunge ya uchumi na fedha iliyo chini ya Dr. Kigoda; Dr Kigoda is very sober in economics, angesaidiana vizuri na Lipumba;

Mwisho ningemweka karibu sana Kabwe Zitto kama moja ya watu naosikiliza mawazo yao kwani he is a very sober young man, especially in what he does best.

Baada ya hapo miaka yangu minne ningetulia kwa amani, raha na starehe kwani uchumi wa Tanzania hautaacha kuwa uchwara baada ya haya mabadiliko lakini ni dhahiri utakuwa uchumi ambao benefits trickle down to the poor;

Lakini sina nafasi hiyo ya kumshauri JK na hata kama nikiipata, wapo watakaomwambia ushauri huo ni mbovu;

 

[Ndinani]

umedesa mada mahala hukiilewa unaleta hapa kutupa usumbufu

Ondokana na akili yako mbovu, mwenzio amekaa na akafanya uchambuzi wa maana na wenye akili wamemuelewa!! Uchambuzi wako MCHAMBUZI ni wa kitaalam na unawatia aibu NDULLU na MKULLO pamoja na vikaragosi vyao hapo BOT na Hazina[Mipango] ikiwaonesha kuwa hatua wanazochukua haziwezi kuwa suluhisho la kudumu la kuthibiti mfumuko wa bei na kuwa hatua walizochukua haziwasaidii wananchi waliowengi kuwapunguzia wamakali ya maisha kwani the majority of the population still survive in the non-monetized economy. Ningekushauri mchambuzi, upeleke uchambuzi wako ili ukachapishwe kwenye gazeti kama vile RAIA MWEMA au Mwananchi kama wanaweza ili wananchi wengi wapate kufaidika na uchambuzi huu. Humu janvini ni sisi wachache wenye umeme ndio tunapata fursa ya kusoma na hata hivyo siku nyingine umeme unakatika. Jitahidi uchapishe kwenye gazeti I am sure wabunge watafurahia uchambuzi wako!! Ingawaje natofautiana na wewe na hao watu unaowapendekeza kwa nafasi hizo za kumshauri Rais; unajua kuwa Lipumba alikuwa mshauri wa uchumi wa rais Mwinyi? Kuna wachumi wengi wazuri usiowafahamu ambao ni zaidi ya huyo Ndullu na Lipumba, je umewahi kumsikia mchumi anaitwa Delphine Rwegasira; huyu Kikwete anamfahamu kwani alikuwa mwalimu wao yeye na Kigoda lakini anaogopa kumtumia kwani hayumbiswi sio kama Ndullu!!!

 

[Ndinani]

I am interested to know who are economic advisers of our President kwasababu watakuwa wanaishi labda nchi tofauti na hii tunayoishi. Nauliza hivi kwasababu economic advisers wa rais ndio wana sauti ya mwisho kwa rais na wao ndio wanatoa independent view ya ishu muhimu ambazo rais anapelekewa na waziri na gavana wake. Vile vile wao ndio wanatengeneza mbadala wa mapendekezo ya waziri au gavana wakiona ni bomu. Hivyo tujiulize washauri wa rais akina nani tutapata kujua tatizo liko wapi.

Kama ulishakutana na Mkullo na ukampa ushauri BAK na Contena wakiwa mashahidi basi wewe lazima uko karibu na jikoni na huwezi kupata taabu kuwajua washauri wa uchumi wa Rais. Tatizo la mkweree ni kwamba anaogopa washauri wenye msimamo watamwambia kweli kuwa yeye ni part of the problem especially kwenye expenditure front hivyo ndio maana anawashauri vijana wadogo wanaomuogopa!! Mdondoaji, tatizo la revenue side of the equation sio size ya tax-base, kwasababu the monetized part of our economy is very small, in order to enhance what is being collected by TRA we should enhance methods to curb tax-avoidance which is rampant in the country!!

 

[Godwine]

Daima tumezoea kushambulia kwenye matokeo na si sababu, kwa mara hii tena ngoja niwaambie kuwa katika watu walio safi kwenye uendeshaji wa wizara zao ni mkullo na msaidizi wake ndullu.


yote tunayoongea kudondoka kwa uchumi wetu na pia mfumuko wa bei unasababishwa na vitu vingi lakini kikubwa si tatizo katika wizara ya fedha bali tatizo liko kwenye uzalishaji wa bidhaa na uwiano wa biashara


Naweka wazi kuwa watu mnaomshambulia ndullu au mkullo kwenye jambo la kudondoka kwa uchumi wetu bila ya kushambulia kuzorota kwa viwaza ya viwanda inayosababisha tatizo kubwa kwenye uchumi wetu hamumtendei haki na nasita kusema mna chuki binafsi

Tatizo letu tanzania hatuna viwanda vya kutosha kuzalisha bidha kwa matumizi ya ndani na mauzo ya nje hili ni tatizo linalosababisha kuyumba kwa uchumi wetu lakini wengi badala ya kushambulia wizara ya viwanda wanashambulia wizara ya fedha, je mna chuki binafsi au tatizo lenu liko wapi?

 

[Mchambuzi]

Ondokana na akili yako mbovu, mwenzio amekaa na akafanya uchambuzi wa maana na wenye akili wamemuelewa!! Uchambuzi wako MCHAMBUZI ni wa kitaalam na unawatia aibu NDULLU na MKULLO pamoja na vikaragosi vyao hapo BOT na Hazina[Mipango] ikiwaonesha kuwa hatua wanazochukua haziwezi kuwa suluhisho la kudumu la kuthibiti mfumuko wa bei na kuwa hatua walizochukua haziwasaidii wananchi waliowengi kuwapunguzia wamakali ya maisha kwani the majority of the population still survive in the non-monetized economy. Ningekushauri mchambuzi, upeleke uchambuzi wako ili ukachapishwe kwenye gazeti kama vile RAIA MWEMA au Mwananchi kama wanaweza ili wananchi wengi wapate kufaidika na uchambuzi huu. Humu janvini ni sisi wachache wenye umeme ndio tunapata fursa ya kusoma na hata hivyo siku nyingine umeme unakatika. Jitahidi uchapishe kwenye gazeti I am sure wabunge watafurahia uchambuzi wako!! Ingawaje natofautiana na wewe na hao watu unaowapendekeza kwa nafasi hizo za kumshauri Rais; unajua kuwa Lipumba alikuwa mshauri wa uchumi wa rais Mwinyi? Kuna wachumi wengi wazuri usiowafahamu ambao ni zaidi ya huyo Ndullu na Lipumba, je umewahi kumsikia mchumi anaitwa Delphine Rwegasira; huyu Kikwete anamfahamu kwani alikuwa mwalimu wao yeye na Kigoda lakini anaogopa kumtumia kwani hayumbiswi sio kama Ndullu!!!

Nashukuru sana Ndinani kwa kunipa moyo kwani mimi nia yangu ni kutoa mchango wangu tu badala ya kulalamikia serikali vijiweni. Kuhusu Magazeti, aslimia ya watanzania wanaosoma magazeti sio zaidi ya 2% Ndinani, njia nzuri ya kuwafikia wengi ni kupitia mijadala ya kwenye Radio kwani vijana wengi hivi sasa wamekuwa na interest kubwa sana ya kusikia mijadala kuhusu maendeleo ya nchi; kwahiyo vijana kadhaa wakijipanga na mada zao watawaifikia wengi sana, hasa wa vijijini; ila kuhusu wabunge, kama unaona content yangu ina mambo mazuri for them to grasp, njia ya gazeti hapo itafaa kwa kweli, nashukuru sana kwa ushauri huo;

Kuhusu Lipumba, nilimtaja tu kama mwanasiasa ambae kabobea katika uchumi na huwa ana hoja nzuri sana, sasa ili apimwe, ushauri wangu ni kwamba Rais amteue mbunge na ampe nafasi katika kamati ya Kigoda ya uchumi na Fedha tuone mchango wake, vinginevyo upo sahihi kabisa kwamba kuna wachumi wazuri sana ambao hawapo in main stream thoughts. Kuhusu Rwegasira nimemsoma sana na nakubaliana na wewe juu ya uwezo wa mtu huyu, ila bado yupo huyu mtu? Kuna kitabu chake nilisoma, cha siku nyingi but still very useful alikiandika na wenzake - Green (from University of Sussex) and Brian Arkadie (from institute of Social Studies, the hague) - kitabu cha 1982 titled - Economic Schocks and National Policy Making: Tanzania in the 1970s; this is a very good read.

 

[Mdondoaji]

Daima tumezoea kushambulia kwenye matokeo na si sababu, kwa mara hii tena ngoja niwaambie kuwa katika watu walio safi kwenye uendeshaji wa wizara zao ni mkullo na msaidizi wake ndullu.


yote tunayoongea kudondoka kwa uchumi wetu na pia mfumuko wa bei unasababishwa na vitu vingi lakini kikubwa si tatizo katika wizara ya fedha bali tatizo liko kwenye uzalishaji wa bidhaa na uwiano wa biashara


Naweka wazi kuwa watu mnaomshambulia ndullu au mkullo kwenye jambo la kudondoka kwa uchumi wetu bila ya kushambulia kuzorota kwa viwaza ya viwanda inayosababisha tatizo kubwa kwenye uchumi wetu hamumtendei haki na nasita kusema mna chuki binafsi

Tatizo letu tanzania hatuna viwanda vya kutosha kuzalisha bidha kwa matumizi ya ndani na mauzo ya nje hili ni tatizo linalosababisha kuyumba kwa uchumi wetu lakini wengi badala ya kushambulia wizara ya viwanda wanashambulia wizara ya fedha, je mna chuki binafsi au tatizo lenu liko wapi?

Godwine,

Wewe sio uliyesema unapendelea Shillingi ishuke zaidi. Halafu huu ushauri la viwanda unaweza kutuambia viwanda bila ya watu hela mifukoni hivyo viwanda vitamuuzia nani bidhaa??? Viwanda bila ya umeme vitazalisha nini? Ushauri wako nadhani umekaa kisiasa zaidi ya kitaaluma i suggest fikiria vizuri zaidi kwani viwanda haviwezi kuokoa uchumi wa Tanzania kwasasa.

Mkulo na Ndulu have themselves to blame for this disaster kwasababu walikuwa wanaopportunity kuavert hii crisis kabla haijakuwa worse off. Hakuna mtu ana chuki binafsi (kama kawaida yetu kila kitu tunachukulia siasa tu) ila tunasemea kwamba wanatakiwa waact in the interest of the nation na sio kufanya maamuzi ya kisiasa. Umeme limekuwa tatizo tangu 2009 kwanini waziri wa fedha asimshinikize waziri mwenzie wa nishati kulitafutia ufumbuzi wa kudumu? Kwanini waziri wa fedha asitenge budget (emergency budget to save the nation from the brink of economic collapse)? Kwanini waziri asiwe na alternative plan ya kuongeza vyanzo vya kodi ikiwa sekta ya uzalishaji na huduma itazorota baada ya matatizo ya umeme?

Wanalaumika kwa kuwa tu wameachia mzunguko mkubwa wa fedha katika uchumi uliotokana na kuingiza fedha mpya na zamani. Matokeo yakawa kuongezeka kwa purchasing power na inflationary pressures.

Hakuna mtu ana chuki binafsi na mtu

 

[Mchambuzi]

Daima tumezoea kushambulia kwenye matokeo na si sababu, kwa mara hii tena ngoja niwaambie kuwa katika watu walio safi kwenye uendeshaji wa wizara zao ni mkullo na msaidizi wake ndullu.


yote tunayoongea kudondoka kwa uchumi wetu na pia mfumuko wa bei unasababishwa na vitu vingi lakini kikubwa si tatizo katika wizara ya fedha bali tatizo liko kwenye uzalishaji wa bidhaa na uwiano wa biashara


Naweka wazi kuwa watu mnaomshambulia ndullu au mkullo kwenye jambo la kudondoka kwa uchumi wetu bila ya kushambulia kuzorota kwa viwaza ya viwanda inayosababisha tatizo kubwa kwenye uchumi wetu hamumtendei haki na nasita kusema mna chuki binafsi

Tatizo letu tanzania hatuna viwanda vya kutosha kuzalisha bidha kwa matumizi ya ndani na mauzo ya nje hili ni tatizo linalosababisha kuyumba kwa uchumi wetu lakini wengi badala ya kushambulia wizara ya viwanda wanashambulia wizara ya fedha, je mna chuki binafsi au tatizo lenu liko wapi?

Hakuna mtu anaeshambuliwa binafsi hapa, ila nafasi zao na kama umesoma vizuri maana ya uchumi uchwara, maana yake tuna uchumi worthless to the majority of Tanzanians na wanayoyafanya Mkullo na Ndullo in that context ni useless to the 70% of Tanzanians. Sasa kama suala ni viwanda na uzalishaji, what role do they play on that front kuelekeza uchumi huko? do you know the powers Mkullo has as the minister wa finance? Yeye ndie anasema wizara ya viwanda mwaka huu ipate 50% of the budget as long as he justifies it, na anaweza hata kushauri (mfano tu) iundwe wizara ya vichochoro ili kushughulikia tatizo la mbu kwenye nyasi...whatever it takes kusaidia uchumi wa nchi yetu; Pia ni vizuri tukaangalai records za Mkullo alipokuwa PPF ili tujue uwezo wake kamili kuongoza wizara kama ya fedha; vinginevyo kama nilivyosema hapo awali Ndullu ni mchumi mzuri, sijui kama he makes the best governor out of watanzania wengine, na sijui kama ufanisi wake mdogo ni kutokana na political interference, i dont know, but he is not doing the right thing at the moment;

Tunachoangalia hapa ni watu waliopewa dhamana ya kusimamia raslimali zetu, kama wanalega lega lazima wasemwe - sera zao sio pro - poor, na hivyo kupelekea uchumi wao kuwa uchwara, hakuna chuki binafsi katika hilo, it is obvious watabakia nafasi zao for the next 4 years, wajitahidi kupunguza uchwara wa uchumi;

 

[Mdondoaji]

Kama ulishakutana na Mkullo na ukampa ushauri BAK na Contena wakiwa mashahidi basi wewe lazima uko karibu na jikoni na huwezi kupata taabu kuwajua washauri wa uchumi wa Rais. Tatizo la mkweree ni kwamba anaogopa washauri wenye msimamo watamwambia kweli kuwa yeye ni part of the problem especially kwenye expenditure front hivyo ndio maana anawashauri vijana wadogo wanaomuogopa!! Mdondoaji, tatizo la revenue side of the equation sio size ya tax-base, kwasababu the monetized part of our economy is very small, in order to enhance what is being collected by TRA we should enhance methods to curb tax-avoidance which is rampant in the country!!

Ndinani,

Kudos mkuu kwa kunikumbusha tax avoidance this is also a problem nilishasahau. Lakini pengine tutazame ni akina nani wanakwepa kodi utaona ni makampuni ya wakubwa wenyewe. sasa sijui unashauri litatuliwe vp ndugu yangu.

 

[Mdondoaji]

Mdondoaji, ni kweli kwamba nishati na mafuta vinachangia. Suala la nishati limeshazungumzwa sana na tatizo lake ni kwamba kwanza - ni tabia yetu CCM kujaribu kukwepa kumruhusu waziri fulani aibuke kuwa a hero na mradi fulani kwani itamtengenezea njia ya Urais, ndio maana miaka yote, mawaziri wote ambao system iliyopo haimtaki awe next president wanapewa wizara za kawaida sana - kwahiyo siasa zinatangulizwa kuliko maslahi ya taifa; pia katika miradi migongano ya kisera (mawaziri) na kiutendaji (makatibu wakuu) huwa wanagongana sana na mwisho wake miradi mingi kuwa shelved; vile vile mawaziri wengi wanapenda kuchangamkia miradi ya upesi upesi kwani hiyo inawapatia ten percent mapema wakiwa bado kwenye nyadhifa zao kuliko kusubiri miradi yenye milolongo mirefu, na matokeo yake ni Richmond, IPTL n.k.

Pia kuna taarifa kwamba kwa miaka mingi sana WorldBank iliamua at any cost to discourage development of any major project za umeme zilizokuwa cheaper than Gas before songosongo's project starts to pay back kwani IFC wana hela zao mle, ndio maana miradi mikubwa mikubwa kama Mchuchuma imakuwa inapigwa danadana; viongozi wetu wakiamua shinika wanaweza geuza hili but wengi they dont because ya mambo ambayo baadhi yake nimeyaelezea hapo tu; pale tu songo songo itakapoanza kuwarudishia IFC fedha zao ndipo tutaanza kuona miradi mikubwa ya umeme ikipewa ukipa umbele;

Kuhusu monetary policy and credit squeeze, hivi ni sekta gani zinapata the largest chunk of credit Tanzania? Ni mbili tu - construction and trade by very far; manufacturing na SMEs zipo way down the bottom;

Kuhusu kushauri gavana aachie inflation iendelee, this is problematic kwani it would eat up earnings za all factors of production namely wages, rent, interest, profits especially if margins zake zipo below the rate of inflation; pia malipo kama pension kwa wazee wetu wastaafu purchasing power yake would erode kwani hiz ni fixed amount for the rest of your life; nadhani point yako ni kwamba suala sio to arrest inflation bali to match it with the availability of goods in the circulation and thats where masuala ya umeme na uzalishaji yanakuja; but all in all, inflation rate that is above rewards of other factors of production, capital in particular is problematic; a desirable rate is that of single digits, and the lower the better;

Mkuu,

Kwanza kuhusu SME sio kweli kwamba sasa hivi wapo chini it is among the key booming financial sector in our country with an estimate portfolio around $2 Billion. SME ndio wamesababisha NMB kuwa benki iliyoongoza kwa kupata faida nchini. CRDB na NBC ambazo zimekijika katika corporate lending wameachwa mbali na NMB. Hivyo kusema SME ni sekta ndogo I do not think you are correct anyway hilo sio la msingi.

Pengine tuassume kweli construction, trade (which I suspect you are also mixing with manufacturing) are the leading lending sector in the country. Wakisema waongeze interest rate na kupunguza money available for lending what will happen? Kwanza sekta ya ujenzi gharama za ujenzi zitapanda na serikali ambayo some of the construction projects wana guarantee wataend up kulipa zaidi. Vile vile constructions projects involves large corporate investment na gharama zikipanda eventually mtumiaji wa huduma hizo ndio atakayeishia kulipa gharama hizo kwasababu bei za vitu zitaongezeka na serikali haitakuwa na budi bali kuongeza kodi iweze kumudu gharama hizo.

Tukihamia corporate lending especially kwa wafanyabiashara kama Bakhressa, Mohamed Enterprises etc wakipandishiwa interest ya mkopo ni mtumiaji wa unga wa Bakhressa au Mchele wa Mohamed Enterprises ndie atakayeishia kulipia gharama ya ziada. Hivyo utaona the multiplier effect ya kupanda interest on credit itahamishiwa kwa mtumiaji wa kawaida ambaye ni mlalahoi.

Kwanini nasema inflation ningeliaacha kama Gavana kwasababu kama nilivyosema mwanzo inflation pressure za nchi yetu zinatokana na vitu viwili vikuu. a. Umeme b. Mafuta. Bei ya mafuta katika ulimwengu imepanda sana kwasababu ya mtikisiko wa benki (2008), eventually fall out of the economic crisis and finally the Arab uprising. Economist walitegemea bei ya mafuta kuanza kushuka mwaka huu lakini kutokana na matatizo ya ulaya ya madeni bado hali hiyo haijatengamaa. Hata hivyo kuna matumaini especially baada ya nchi za mataifa ya ulaya kuweza kukubaliana vp wataweza kutatua tatizo la madeni ya ulaya. Vile vile Uchumi wa Marekani unaonyesha dalili za uhai. Ikiwa bei ya mafuta itashuka mwaka 2012 eventually na sisi pressure ya inflation itashuka na eventually maisha yatakuwa na unafuu.

La msingi wanatakiwa watatue tatizo la umeme. Hilo unalolizungumzia la kushuka kwa kiwango cha thamani ya pesa (value for money) ni la muda mfupi na lina impact ndogo kushinda kujaribu kulitatua kwa kutumia monetary tools tulizonazo. Kumbuka mchambuzi we need to grow ili uchumi wa nchi uweze kutoa kazi kwa wananchi, uzalishaji uendelee na maisha yaendelee. If they decide to act now to control inflation what will happen is inflation inaweza kushuka kwa muda mfupi but external inflation pressure zinaweza kuisukuma tena juu. Sasa ikitokea hivyo ndio kitatokea kama kilichotokea Asian financial crisis ya 1997-1998. Ambapo nchi za Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Korea zilikimbilia kujaribu kuokoa inflation pressure na currency depreciation in value that resulted in a complete economic meltdown!!!

 

[Mdondoaji]

Hakuna mtu anaeshambuliwa binafsi hapa, ila nafasi zao na kama umesoma vizuri maana ya uchumi uchwara, maana yake tuna uchumi worthless to the majority of Tanzanians na wanayoyafanya Mkullo na Ndullo in that context ni useless to the 70% of Tanzanians. Sasa kama suala ni viwanda na uzalishaji, what role do they play on that front kuelekeza uchumi huko? do you know the powers Mkullo has as the minister wa finance? Yeye ndie anasema wizara ya viwanda mwaka huu ipate 50% of the budget as long as he justifies it, na anaweza hata kushauri (mfano tu) iundwe wizara ya vichochoro ili kushughulikia tatizo la mbu kwenye nyasi...whatever it takes kusaidia uchumi wa nchi yetu; Pia ni vizuri tukaangalai records za Mkullo alipokuwa PPF ili tujue uwezo wake kamili kuongoza wizara kama ya fedha; vinginevyo kama nilivyosema hapo awali Ndullu ni mchumi mzuri, sijui kama he makes the best governor out of watanzania wengine, na sijui kama ufanisi wake mdogo ni kutokana na political interference, i dont know, but he is not doing the right thing at the moment;

Tunachoangalia hapa ni watu waliopewa dhamana ya kusimamia raslimali zetu, kama wanalega lega lazima wasemwe - sera zao sio pro - poor, na hivyo kupelekea uchumi wao kuwa uchwara, hakuna chuki binafsi katika hilo, it is obvious watabakia nafasi zao for the next 4 years, wajitahidi kupunguza uchwara wa uchumi;

Mchambuzi,

Mkulo hakuwapo PPF bali alikuwapo NPF ambayo ilirun into bankruptcy kwa ufisadi hadi Mkapa alipokuja kuikoa kwa kuifuta na Mkapa kuisuka upya na kuwa NSSF.

 

[Mchambuzi]

Kama ulishakutana na Mkullo na ukampa ushauri BAK na Contena wakiwa mashahidi basi wewe lazima uko karibu na jikoni na huwezi kupata taabu kuwajua washauri wa uchumi wa Rais. Tatizo la mkweree ni kwamba anaogopa washauri wenye msimamo watamwambia kweli kuwa yeye ni part of the problem especially kwenye expenditure front hivyo ndio maana anawashauri vijana wadogo wanaomuogopa!! Mdondoaji, tatizo la revenue side of the equation sio size ya tax-base, kwasababu the monetized part of our economy is very small, in order to enhance what is being collected by TRA we should enhance methods to curb tax-avoidance which is rampant in the country!!

Ndidani,
I am in accord with you contention kwamba tatizo ni the size of the monetized sector – it is just too small; nikiangalia kazi za Mkullo, I see a lot of inrony in it:– upande mmoja tunajivunia kwamba tax reforms zimesaidia sana kwa serikali kupata revenue growth mwaka hadi mwaka ; upande mwingine tunajificha nyuso tukiulizwa then why the increase in budget deficit mwaka hadi mwaka? As you put it rightly Ndidani, monetized sector ni ndogo – it is already exhausted, we cannot expand it anymore, cha kufanya ni for the government to identify new sources of revenue including increasing the monetized sector na kupunguza the subsistence sector, hence be in a position to comfortably increase the tax base;

On Tax avoidance
Hali inatisha. Tax exemptions have been increasing each year and as of now, this figure is above 30% of our total tax revenue, sasa nikisema uchumi wa Mkullo ni Uchwara ni kumshambulia binafsi jamani? These exemptions create loopholes for tax evasion and revenue leakages; this revenue would have been used to reduce government’s dependency on AID which now tunasikia inaanza kuwa packaged kwenye boksi moja na Ushoga.

 

[Mchambuzi]

Mchambuzi,

Mkulo hakuwapo PPF bali alikuwapo NPF ambayo ilirun into bankruptcy kwa ufisadi hadi Mkapa alipokuja kuikoa kwa kuifuta na Mkapa kuisuka upya na kuwa NSSF.

Thanks for the input Mdondoaji. Wow, NPF went bankrupt chini ya Mkullo? How can such a fund go bankrupt? Na kama ni kweli, is that person fit to run our economy? does it explain why we are going bankrupt now? it is just a few questions that makes me wonder.

 

[Mdondoaji]

Thanks for the input Mdondoaji. Wow, NPF went bankrupt chini ya Mkullo? How can such a fund go bankrupt? Na kama ni kweli, is that person fit to run our economy? does it explain why we are going bankrupt now? it is just a few questions that makes me wonder.

Siwezi kusema yeye kuwa ni fisadi kwani sina evidence ya hilo ila NPF najua ilikuwa bankrupt kwasababu ya dili za ufisadi. Na yeye ndio alikuwa mkurugenzi mkuu. Pitia rekodi zako za zamani kulikuwa na allegation nyingi za NPF na ufisadi miaka 1990s.

 

[DAR si LAMU]

Dar Si Lamu, nadhani nimekusoma; ulichonichanganya ni uliposema 'paragraph mbili', ilikuwa vigumu kwangu kufahamu zipi hizo hasa, lakini i think in the post i made two major points and i am assuming that it is the very two points that you are referring to kwamba ndizo zenye majibu.......

...Haswaaa. Na nimesoma huko chini, ushaweka wazi zaidi.

...Tujikumbushe historia kidogo, ingawa baadhi ni za mataifa ya magharibi. Natumai wote tunafahamu dhana za uendeshaji serikali zinazojulikana kama Reaganomics na Thatcherism. Bila kumsahau our very own Mwl. JKN na Ujamaa na Kujitegemea. Inategemewa kwamba, kila kiongozi aingiaye madarakani atakuwa na sera mahsusi kwa ajili ya kuboresha uchumi, n.k hasa pale inapooneka kuna mahitaji makubwa ya kufanya hivyo; mara nyingi baada ya mambo fulani kudorora.

...Je, tunaposema hali si nzuri na mambo hayaendi vizuri tunamtegemea nani ayanyooshe? au ayasimamie yaende vile inavyotegemewa?

...Kila mtu ana kazi yake; mshauri kazi yake ni kushauri, full stop.

 

[DAR si LAMU]

Mkapa alikuwa na washauri wazuri wa ndani na nje, mfano Dr. Kwaku ambae ni Mghana but seasoned economist wa World Bank; pia Hernandos Desoto, a prominent South America economist ambae aana kitabu kizuri sana nadhani by the name of 'the misery of capital; pia alikuwa na vichwa vizuri sana pale hazina - kina Doctor Kipokola na wengineo; BOT bado kulikuwa na watu wazuri sana; lakini pia mawaziri wake wa fedha, especially Dr. Kigoda and Professor Mbilinyi were very sober, hawakuteuliwa hivi hivi tu kuongoza wizara nyeti ya fedha; uteuzi wizara ya fedha haitakiwi uwe wa kisiasa au kiurafiki, pale panahitaji high level of professionalism;

...Timu ya ushindi. Ila, alitia dosari kwa aliyoyafanya 2nd term yake.