Mkullo, Ndullu na Uchumi Uchwara

[GodfreyTajiri]

I am interested to know who are economic advisers of our President kwasababu watakuwa wanaishi labda nchi tofauti na hii tunayoishi. Nauliza hivi kwasababu economic advisers wa rais ndio wana sauti ya mwisho kwa rais na wao ndio wanatoa independent view ya ishu muhimu ambazo rais anapelekewa na waziri na gavana wake. Vile vile wao ndio wanatengeneza mbadala wa mapendekezo ya waziri au gavana wakiona ni bomu. Hivyo tujiulize washauri wa rais akina nani tutapata kujua tatizo liko wapi.

naamini ni dr philip mpango, dr khamisi mwinyimvua and mrs elsie kanza.
kama sikosei dr. mwinyimvua alifundishwa na prof. ndulu udsm

 

[Dogo Tundu]

huu mjadala ni mzuri sana, naamini hawa wakuu huwa wanapitagapitaga humu jamvini, sio vibaya wakapima kwa hizi hoja kuona kama bado wanaweza kuwaletea unafuu wa maisha watanzania, HONGERA SANA Mr. MCHAMBUZI kwa huu mjadala.

 

[Mdondoaji]

naamini ni dr philip mpango, dr khamisi mwinyimvua and mrs elsie kanza.
kama sikosei dr. mwinyimvua alifundishwa na prof. ndulu udsm

Una CV zao mkuu utusaidie maana itaweza kutoa mwangaza wa kitu wanachokishauri. Mfano kama ni watu wa labour economics watakuwa wanapenda serikali itoe misaada kwa makampuni na wafanyakazi. Kama ni watu wa financial economics watakuwa wanapendelea kusaidiwa kwa sekta za mabenki na kadhalika. Kama unayo CV utusaidie. Vile vile kama sio wachumi tufahamu kama hilo nalo tatizo.

 

[Stuxnet]

Nimefuatilia mjadala huu wa kutetereka kwa uchumi wetu na nampongeza mchambuzi kwa namna alivyowasilisha mada. Ila mimi naona kama vile wachangiaji wote wana "beat about the bush" kuhusu chanzo cha mdororo wa uchumi wetu. Kwangu mimi tatizo ni JK mwenyewe na si washauri au akina Ndullu au Mkulo. Ukishaitwa mshauri kazi yako inaishia kutoa maoni tu, ni juu ya "decision maker" kuyafanyia kazi au kuyaweka kapuni.

Kwa hiyo hata leo kama ungemleta madame Lagarde boss wa IMF awe mshauri wa JK haitasaidia nchi ya Tanzania kama JK hayuko tayari kufuata ushauri. Washauri wote wa JK hawako tayari kumpa ushauri utakao athiri masilahi yao kikazi au kisiasa kwa hiyo wana amua bora liende. Je kwa mfano wakati JK anataka kusafiri kwenda nje na timu yake ya wapambe jiulize kama Ndullu au Mkullo anaweza kumuambia kuwa ni matumizi mabaya ya fedha. Ni nini kitafuata baada ya hapo, jibu unalo. Naona JK amepanua wigo wa matumizi kwa ukubwa wa baraza lake na safari ambazo anasafiri na wapambe wake kwenda nchi za nje. Kwa hiyo hata TRA wakusanye kodi kiasi gani kama hakuna discipline ya matumizi ni kazi bure.

Ukiangalia upande wa uwekezaji huoni mtaji wowote wa maana ulioingia nchini kama Direct Investment kuanzia mwaka 2006. Ktk utawala wa awamu ya 4 wawekezaji wanaonekana kama mafisadi. Utaona kuwa wanasiasa wetu wamewa brand wawekezaji katika sekta za madini, fedha na mawasiliano kama wezi wa mali ya waTanzania.

Tatizo la kutokuwa na umeme nalo limechangia kuifanya nchi yetu ionekane siyo mahali mwafaka kwa uwekezaji. Na katika hili unaona moja kwa moja kuwa kuna makundi masilahi kutoka sehemu ya Bunge, Serikalini na hata kwenye sekta binafsi ambazo zinashindana katika kujitwalia chochote wanachoweza kupata toka kwenye sekta ya nishati.

Namkumbuka mjumbe mmoja wa Nyerere Foundation aliyesema kuwa Chama chake imtose JK kama hawezi kufanya maamuzi magumu. Hapa kweli tuna ombwe la uongozi. Hebu jiulize kama kweli ni kitendo mwafaka kwa mkuu wa nchi aliyekuwa nje kwa zaidi ya siku 10 na baada ya kurudi moja ya priorities zake ni kumuona Vengu mchekeshaji wa komedi

 

[MWEEN]

Nashukuru Juma contena. Kuhusu magazeti, hakuna lililo bora kuliko mtandao wa JF - mengi ni aidha uchwara au yamenunuliwa na mafisadii. Kinachosubiriwa kwa hamu na wananchi ni teknolojia rahisi ya wao kuweza kuwa sehemu ya JF. Siku hiyo inakuja kwani teknolojia haimtupi mja wake.

Ahsante sana kwa elimu hii. Naona ingesaidia kama ungeshuka na summary (abstract) ukaibandika hapa halafu the whole paper ukaweka kama pdf attachment.

nashukuru.

 

[GodfreyTajiri]

Una CV zao mkuu utusaidie maana itaweza kutoa mwangaza wa kitu wanachokishauri. Mfano kama ni watu wa labour economics watakuwa wanapenda serikali itoe misaada kwa makampuni na wafanyakazi. Kama ni watu wa financial economics watakuwa wanapendelea kusaidiwa kwa sekta za mabenki na kadhalika. Kama unayo CV utusaidie. Vile vile kama sio wachumi tufahamu kama hilo nalo tatizo.

Elsie S. Kanza
- appointed to the Presidency in March 2006, as Personal Assistant to H.E. Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete,
responsible for Economic Affairs.

- Ministry of Finance from 2002 to 2006 on secondment from the (central) Bank of Tanzania. At the Ministry, Elsie served as Personal Assistant
to the Permanent Secretary to the Treasury (2004 – 2006), Acting Commissioner for Debt Policy and Principal Policy Analyst for Finance and Capital Markets (2002 – 2004). While at the Ministry she was instrumental in the successful preparation of Tanzania's proposal for eligibility for USA's Millennium Challenge Account assistance, development of government credit guarantee schemes, establishing frameworks to facilitate private sector lending in the mortgage finance sector, and concluding HIPC debt cancellations with 16 countries.

- From 1997 to 2002 Elsie worked with the Bank of Tanzania as a Financial Market Analyst and as a Money Market Dealer in the Directorate of Financial Markets. Elsie was instrumental in the computerization of the Government Securities auction system, as well as introducing Government Treasury Bonds and Repurchase Agreements.

- holds a BSc (cum laude) in International Business Administration from the United States International University – Africa,
- MSc in Finance from the University of Strathclyde
- MA in Development Economics from Williams College.

She is also an Archbishop Desmond Tutu Leadership Fellow (2008), an Honorary Committe Member of the 1x1microcredit.org, and is a Member of the World Economic Forum's Regional Agenda Council on Africa for 2010-11.

source: http://cde.williams.edu/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Elsie-Kanza-Bio.pdf

 

[GodfreyTajiri]

Una CV zao mkuu utusaidie maana itaweza kutoa mwangaza wa kitu wanachokishauri. Mfano kama ni watu wa labour economics watakuwa wanapenda serikali itoe misaada kwa makampuni na wafanyakazi. Kama ni watu wa financial economics watakuwa wanapendelea kusaidiwa kwa sekta za mabenki na kadhalika. Kama unayo CV utusaidie. Vile vile kama sio wachumi tufahamu kama hilo nalo tatizo.

cv za mwinyimvua na mpango sijazipata ila nadhani mwinyimvua ni mtaallamu wa masuala ya taxation.

 

[Mkasika]

Is poverty in Tanzania deliberate. The answer is yes. Yes, not because we are not given enough aid. But because of greed , corruption, wrong priorities and lack of political will to fight it.

Most countrys in Africa follow the west in almost all aspects including having strong Military. (for what) They are always strengthening their Military even when they've never been at war for almost 40 years (Watch the National holidays like independence day, the focus is always on military parades and 4 fighter jets thurdering above National stadium sky ).

Why does, Tanzania for example allocate 100 billion shillings to the department of Defence and 15 billion to depart of agriculture, While agriculture is the engine to the economy?

What a big difference will it make if Agriculture was allocated 100 billions and Defence 15 billion, Life for Tanzanians will for sure change so will the economy.

With one terrorist attack , what other aggression , internal or external can the Tanzanian Military stop.

Just a thought?

 

[Mchambuzi]

Mkuu,

Kwanza kuhusu SME sio kweli kwamba sasa hivi wapo chini it is among the key booming financial sector in our country with an estimate portfolio around $2 Billion. SME ndio wamesababisha NMB kuwa benki iliyoongoza kwa kupata faida nchini. CRDB na NBC ambazo zimekijika katika corporate lending wameachwa mbali na NMB. Hivyo kusema SME ni sekta ndogo I do not think you are correct anyway hilo sio la msingi.

Pengine tuassume kweli construction, trade (which I suspect you are also mixing with manufacturing) are the leading lending sector in the country. Wakisema waongeze interest rate na kupunguza money available for lending what will happen? Kwanza sekta ya ujenzi gharama za ujenzi zitapanda na serikali ambayo some of the construction projects wana guarantee wataend up kulipa zaidi. Vile vile constructions projects involves large corporate investment na gharama zikipanda eventually mtumiaji wa huduma hizo ndio atakayeishia kulipa gharama hizo kwasababu bei za vitu zitaongezeka na serikali haitakuwa na budi bali kuongeza kodi iweze kumudu gharama hizo.

Tukihamia corporate lending especially kwa wafanyabiashara kama Bakhressa, Mohamed Enterprises etc wakipandishiwa interest ya mkopo ni mtumiaji wa unga wa Bakhressa au Mchele wa Mohamed Enterprises ndie atakayeishia kulipia gharama ya ziada. Hivyo utaona the multiplier effect ya kupanda interest on credit itahamishiwa kwa mtumiaji wa kawaida ambaye ni mlalahoi.

!

Mdondoaji,
Thanks for the data on SMEs and the $2 billion figure ya credit to the sector. Sijui nilisoma wapi lakini kwamba leading sectors zinazopata mikopo Tanzania ni Construction (ujenzi wa barabara, majengo makubwa na real estate) ikifuatiwa na trade; nitaendelea kuzitafuta ili nizichunguze zaidi, otherwise you have a point.
Kuhusu NMB kupata faida kutokana na credit to SMEs, I can understand that ila tujue kwamba mikopo mingi sana to SMEs ni government guaranteed, sio mikopo ambayo benki zenyewe zinafanya maamuzi yake ya ndani based on credit scores etc; kwa mfano, in 2006 – 2007, the government set aside Tsh 21 billion for soft loans to micro and small enterprise in Tanzania wakati Zhakia Meghji akiwa Waziri wa fedha. Ninachofahamu ni kwamba watu wengi walichukua mikopo hii, some kwa njia sahihi, some kwa njia ya upendeleo na mrejesho wake hatuujui. Inawezekana zimerudi, inawezekana mrejesho wake unasua sua Kwahiyo kuzidi kuchangia inflation. But the bottom line is, kwa fedha kama hizi kutoka serikalini kwenda into the public hands (via soft loans to SMEs), serikali yoyote makini itazipeleka kwenye benki zake, sio benki za nje, ndio maana banks kama NMB wakawa wa kwanza katika list kusaidia serikali kuzisukuma fedha hizi kwa SMEs.

Kitu ambacho bado kinanitatiza kuelewa ni kwamba je:
Hizi government guaranteed loans to SMEs, are these part of the domestic credit provided by the banking sector?
Are these included katika figures telling us the percentage of firms using banks to finance investment?
Sina majibu but I can try to shed light into this – according to the latest figures, domestic credit provided by the banking sector is only 18%; swali la kujiuliza, nani ndio wanapata hizi and where is rest of the 82% of the domestic credit come from? Is it from outside the country? Vinginevyo, one doesn’t need to be Albert Einstein to realize kwamba kama 18% is the total domestic credit provided by the banking sector ambayo hiyo hiyo ndio Mkullo anaenda kuomba Stanbic, Standard Chattered kujalizia kwenye bajeti yake; na kama ni hizo hizo mining companies and other Multi nationals wanaziwinda, then ushindani hapo ni mkubwa sana na hivyo SMEs za Tanzania katika ushindani huu watakuwa marginalized; na hivyo kuchochea uwepo wa uchumi uchwara to the majority of Tanzanians (over 70%).

Food for thought
Miaka ya 1990 – 1994, Tanzania ilikuwa ranked as the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] poorest country in the world only ahead of Somalia and Afghanistan. Lakini takwimu on domestic credit provided by the banking sector katika miaka hiyo zinaonyesha hii figure ilikuwa record breaking, swali la kujiuliza ni je, nani alikuwa anapewa fedha hizi na zilikuwa zinafanya nini kwenye uchumi?

Jedwali: Domestic Credit provided by the bang sector

Year	Percentage
1990	34%
1991	29%
1992	29%
1993	32%
1994	27%

Source: World Bank Tables…
Kwanini domestic credit provided by the banking sector ikiwa juu, watanzania ndio wanazidi kuwa chini zaidi? Something is Fundamentally Wrong, na ndio Uchumi Uchwara ninao uongelea.

Let us look at another set of figures
Tuangalie takwimu on firms using banks to finance investments (out of all firms in Tanzania). In 2001, about 24% of all registered firms in Tanzania obtained their sources of investments from banks. Cha ajabu ni kwamba, by 2003, that figure had dropped to 6%. Tukumbuke pia kwamba Tanzania started to record impressive economic growth from the 2000-2001 financial year (over 6%) and we haven’t gone below that since then; Kulikoni wakati uchumi unazidi kushika kasi, domestic credit to domestic firms inashuka from 24% to 6%? Mind you, GDP growth katika kipindi hicho was as follows:
2001 = 6.1%; 2002 = 2002%; 2003 = 7.0%; and 2004 = 7.8%;
Sasa this impressive growth was for who? Kwani hata marekani sasahivi, an increase in GDP growth by even 0.05% will put Obama back on track to win back the white house; Sasa kwetu sisi uchumi huu ulikuwa na unakua for who? For the elite? For wawekezaji who then wanabeba faida zao zote na kukimbiza nje? Katika bahati kama hii ya kukua uchimi kwa kasi hivi, tunakusanya kodi?
Something is fundamentally wrong here, the impressive growth we have been experiencing is not pro – poor growth bali uchumi ni uchwara wa Mkullo na Ndullu. Pia kuna an indication kwamba, ile figure yako ya $2billion as credit that went to SMEs usikute ilienda to only a handful of SMEs, tunaweza shikwa na butwaa kama tutapata data on who and how many SMEs provided with that credit. Waliopo bungeni watusaidie majibu ya hili, lakini tusisahau kwamba mpaka kikao cha mwisho cha Bunge kilipokuwa kinamalizika, Mkullo alikuwa anabania list aliyoamriwa na Spika aitoe juu ya masuala ambayo yanafanania na haya tunayozungumza.

SMEs have been extended with credit as you put it rightly, but we don’t know the quantity and quality of it (in terms of SMEs); and this still makes many of us believe kwamba access ya SMEs to credit in large part bado ni tatizo. Based on the figure ya 2003 telling us kwamba it was only 6% of the firms in Tanzania that relied on domestic banks as source of capital/investment, ingawa hatuna figure za leo, I doubt kama things have gotten better. Na tusisahau kwmba domestic credit provided by the banking sector was juu sana in early to mid 1990s but still Tanzanians walitumbukia into extreme poverty kuliko kipindi kingine chochote katika historia ya nchi yao.
Sasa kama banking sector in Tanzania inachangia kiasi kidogo hivyo to firms’ credit, then what are their other sources?
An obvious answer is fedha za nje, unless kama mtu ana taarifa ya uwepo wa unofficial source of capital. Otherwise data on fedha za nje (official) zipo, so les try make sense of them: Below ni takwimu on private inflows toka nje ambazo zinakuja kama investment capital kwenye uchumi wetu Tanzania. It is obvious kwamba majority of foreign capital inflows zinaenda katika uwekezaji kwenye miradi aidha foreign owned by 100%, au yenye ubia na government au yenye ubia na wazawa (wenye bahati hiyo). Ni chenji ndogo sana ambazo zinaenda kwenye Dar stock market as portfolio investments kwani DSE is still at a very infant stage. Mfano, Portifolio inflows (DSE) in 2009 was only about USD 3 million.

Now figures below za private capital flows ni pamoja na zile wenzetu ‘wazawa’ wenye bahati ya kuwa na heka zao kadhaa na kufanikiwa kumpata mwekezaji toka nje aje alime nae mazao, au mzawa mwenye kiwanja chenye thamani kwahivyo mwekezaji anakuja kujenga hoteli, apartments etc.

Jedwali: Private capital inflows into Tanzania (2001 – 2009)

Year	Capital Inflows (%)	GDP Growth (%)
2009	1.9	6.7
2008	1.9	7.4
2007	3.5	7.1
2006	2.8	6.7
2005	6.6	7.3
2004	3.4	7.8
2003	3.7	6.9
2002	3.8	7.1
2001	3.7	6.0
2000	4.5	5

Source: World Bank

Tunagundua haraka kwamba by 2009, we were at the lowest point in terms of foreign capital inflows i.e at 1.9% katika kipindi cha miaka kumi (2000 – 2009) na pia tunagundua kumbe ule uchumi ulioanza kukua kwa kasi ya ajabu ulitokana na mitaji toka nje, sio za ndani which is understandable. Cha kuangalia kwa ukaribu hapa ni: Kwanini hapo awali tuliona domestic credit provided by the banking sector (ambayo ofcoz ndio source kubwa kwa SMEs) ilikuwa inazidi kuteremka huku GDP ikipaa na foreign capital entry nayo ikipaa? Hii inaonyesha kwamba huu sio uchumi wetu, ni uchumi wa ‘wenyewe’;
Tumalizie kwa kuangalia, je hizi capital inflows from nje zilienda ku stimulate what economic activities na hizi activities zina real value ya namna gani kwa the 70% of Tanzanians. Tunachojaribu ni kuangalia ule uchumi ulioanza kupaa from the year 2000 ambao uliambatana na kushuka kwa domestic credit from banks to firms in Tanzania sambamba na an increase in foreign capital flows kwenda kuwekezwa kwenye various sector, nani ametajirika na nani amezidi kuwa maskini, na kwanini maskini kawa maskini na tajiri kawa tajiri?

Jedwali: Sectoral contribution to real GDP by economic activities (%)

	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Agriculture	28.6	28.7	29.5	27.6	26.2	25.7%	24.6%	25.5%	26.5
Mining	2.1	2.4	2.6	2.9	3.2	3.5	3.3	3.5	3.7
Manufacturing	8.3	8.3	8.1	7.9	7.8	7.8	8.3	9.4	10.2
Electricity	2	1.9	1.8	1.7	1.5	1.6	1.7	1.8	2.0
Water Supply	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.5
Construction	6.8	8	7.9	7.8	7.8	7.8	7.9	8.6	9.4
Trade and Repair	12.4	12	11.4	11	11.4	11.5	11.8	12.7	13.8
Hotel and Restaurants	2.6	2.4	2.3	2.5	2.6	2.7	2.3	2.4	2.3
Transport	5	4.8	4.6	4.4	4.3	4.2	5	5.3	5.7
Communication	1.2	1.3	1.5	1.7	1.7	2.3	2.1	2.6	3.2
Financial Services	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.7	1.8	2.0
Real estate	9.7	9.4	9.1	8	9.6	9.5	9	9.7	10.3
Public administration	7.2	7.2	7.7	7.7	8	8	8.1	8.7	9.3

Source: Delloitte

• Tunaona kwamba GDP inachangiwa sana na activities za kilimo.

Maswali:

• Je, how much investment goes to Kilimo?
• Je, mchango wa kilimo unatokana na quality of investment or quantity of peasants (70% of the labour force)?
• Jibu ni kwamba takwimu hizi strongly suggest kwamba kilimo hakipati much credit flows na ingawa huko ndio majority of labour force ipo. Huo ndio uchumi uchwara wa Mkullo. The real quality ya contribution of sekta ya kilimo can be seen from value added figures below.

Jedwali: Agriculture Value Added

Year	Annual Growth	(% of GDP)	Value added per worker in dollars
2009	3.2	28	$283
2008	4.5	29	$281
2007	4	29	$275
2006	3.8	30	$270
2005	4	31	$266
2004	5.9	33	$261

Source: World Bank
Note: Value added per worker in 1990 was $219, so only a change of $83 in 20 years.

• Nadhani tayari tunapata picha halisi ya uchumi uchwara wa Mkullo in the context of “KILIMO KWANZA” kwani hapo juu we see kwamba value added kwenye sekta ya kilimo is actually declining.

Je tukirudi kwenye Jedwali letu la awali on: Sectoral Contribution to real GDP by economic activities (hapo juu):Je, ni sekta gani nje ya kilimo zina intense economic activities? Je zina linkages zipi na majority of Tanzanians (70%) vijijini? Tumeshaona kilimo kina mchango ingawa wakulima hawapati mikopo yoyote ya maana; je watanzania wengi (out of the 70%) wapo katika sekta nyingine zipi ili tujue wanafaidika vipi? kwani kwa kwaida, the more economically active the sector, the more attractive it becomes to the banking sector, thereby faidisha wazawa. I have figures ‘valued added’ figures za manufacturing sector (chemicals, food beverages, textiles and clothing, machinery and transport equipments), kwa kweli ni za kusikitisha, san asana kutokana na matatizo ya umeme lakini pia low productivity ya the manufacturing sector in general, sasa sijui tatizo ni access to credit? Small domestic market? Inferior technology to compete with foreign goods nje as well as imported goods? Lack of innovation? Poor sectoral policies, atleast from the implementation perspective? I don’t know, but all I know is Uchumi wa Mkullo na Ndullu ni Uchwara.

 

[Mdondoaji]

Mdondoaji,
Thanks for the data on SMEs and the $2 billion figure ya credit to the sector. Sijui nilisoma wapi lakini kwamba leading sectors zinazopata mikopo Tanzania ni Construction (ujenzi wa barabara, majengo makubwa na real estate) ikifuatiwa na trade; nitaendelea kuzitafuta ili nizichunguze zaidi, otherwise you have a point.
Kuhusu NMB kupata faida kutokana na credit to SMEs, I can understand that ila tujue kwamba mikopo mingi sana to SMEs ni government guaranteed, sio mikopo ambayo benki zenyewe zinafanya maamuzi yake ya ndani based on credit scores etc; kwa mfano, in 2006 – 2007, the government set aside Tsh 21 billion for soft loans to micro and small enterprise in Tanzania wakati Zhakia Meghji akiwa Waziri wa fedha. Ninachofahamu ni kwamba watu wengi walichukua mikopo hii, some kwa njia sahihi, some kwa njia ya upendeleo na mrejesho wake hatuujui. Inawezekana zimerudi, inawezekana mrejesho wake unasua sua Kwahiyo kuzidi kuchangia inflation. But the bottom line is, kwa fedha kama hizi kutoka serikalini kwenda into the public hands (via soft loans to SMEs), serikali yoyote makini itazipeleka kwenye benki zake, sio benki za nje, ndio maana banks kama NMB wakawa wa kwanza katika list kusaidia serikali kuzisukuma fedha hizi kwa SMEs.

Kitu ambacho bado kinanitatiza kuelewa ni kwamba je:
Hizi government guaranteed loans to SMEs, are these part of the domestic credit provided by the banking sector?
Are these included katika figures telling us the percentage of firms using banks to finance investment?
Sina majibu but I can try to shed light into this – according to the latest figures, domestic credit provided by the banking sector is only 18%; swali la kujiuliza, nani ndio wanapata hizi and where is rest of the 82% of the domestic credit come from? Is it from outside the country? Vinginevyo, one doesn't need to be Albert Einstein to realize kwamba kama 18% is the total domestic credit provided by the banking sector ambayo hiyo hiyo ndio Mkullo anaenda kuomba Stanbic, Standard Chattered kujalizia kwenye bajeti yake; na kama ni hizo hizo mining companies and other Multi nationals wanaziwinda, then ushindani hapo ni mkubwa sana na hivyo SMEs za Tanzania katika ushindani huu watakuwa marginalized; na hivyo kuchochea uwepo wa uchumi uchwara to the majority of Tanzanians (over 70%).

Food for thought
Miaka ya 1990 – 1994, Tanzania ilikuwa ranked as the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] poorest country in the world only ahead of Somalia and Afghanistan. Lakini takwimu on domestic credit provided by the banking sector katika miaka hiyo zinaonyesha hii figure ilikuwa record breaking, swali la kujiuliza ni je, nani alikuwa anapewa fedha hizi na zilikuwa zinafanya nini kwenye uchumi?

Jedwali: Domestic Credit provided by the bang sector

Year	Percentage
1990	34%
1991	29%
1992	29%
1993	32%
1994	27%

Source: World Bank Tables…
Kwanini domestic credit provided by the banking sector ikiwa juu, watanzania ndio wanazidi kuwa chini zaidi? Something is Fundamentally Wrong, na ndio Uchumi Uchwara ninao uongelea.

Let us look at another set of figures
Tuangalie takwimu on firms using banks to finance investments (out of all firms in Tanzania). In 2001, about 24% of all registered firms in Tanzania obtained their sources of investments from banks. Cha ajabu ni kwamba, by 2003, that figure had dropped to 6%. Tukumbuke pia kwamba Tanzania started to record impressive economic growth from the 2000-2001 financial year (over 6%) and we haven't gone below that since then; Kulikoni wakati uchumi unazidi kushika kasi, domestic credit to domestic firms inashuka from 24% to 6%? Mind you, GDP growth katika kipindi hicho was as follows:
2001 = 6.1%; 2002 = 2002%; 2003 = 7.0%; and 2004 = 7.8%;
Sasa this impressive growth was for who? Kwani hata marekani sasahivi, an increase in GDP growth by even 0.05% will put Obama back on track to win back the white house; Sasa kwetu sisi uchumi huu ulikuwa na unakua for who? For the elite? For wawekezaji who then wanabeba faida zao zote na kukimbiza nje? Katika bahati kama hii ya kukua uchimi kwa kasi hivi, tunakusanya kodi?
Something is fundamentally wrong here, the impressive growth we have been experiencing is not pro – poor growth bali uchumi ni uchwara wa Mkullo na Ndullu. Pia kuna an indication kwamba, ile figure yako ya $2billion as credit that went to SMEs usikute ilienda to only a handful of SMEs, tunaweza shikwa na butwaa kama tutapata data on who and how many SMEs provided with that credit. Waliopo bungeni watusaidie majibu ya hili, lakini tusisahau kwamba mpaka kikao cha mwisho cha Bunge kilipokuwa kinamalizika, Mkullo alikuwa anabania list aliyoamriwa na Spika aitoe juu ya masuala ambayo yanafanania na haya tunayozungumza.

SMEs have been extended with credit as you put it rightly, but we don't know the quantity and quality of it (in terms of SMEs); and this still makes many of us believe kwamba access ya SMEs to credit in large part bado ni tatizo. Based on the figure ya 2003 telling us kwamba it was only 6% of the firms in Tanzania that relied on domestic banks as source of capital/investment, ingawa hatuna figure za leo, I doubt kama things have gotten better. Na tusisahau kwmba domestic credit provided by the banking sector was juu sana in early to mid 1990s but still Tanzanians walitumbukia into extreme poverty kuliko kipindi kingine chochote katika historia ya nchi yao.
Sasa kama banking sector in Tanzania inachangia kiasi kidogo hivyo to firms' credit, then what are their other sources?
An obvious answer is fedha za nje, unless kama mtu ana taarifa ya uwepo wa unofficial source of capital. Otherwise data on fedha za nje (official) zipo, so les try make sense of them: Below ni takwimu on private inflows toka nje ambazo zinakuja kama investment capital kwenye uchumi wetu Tanzania. It is obvious kwamba majority of foreign capital inflows zinaenda katika uwekezaji kwenye miradi aidha foreign owned by 100%, au yenye ubia na government au yenye ubia na wazawa (wenye bahati hiyo). Ni chenji ndogo sana ambazo zinaenda kwenye Dar stock market as portfolio investments kwani DSE is still at a very infant stage. Mfano, Portifolio inflows (DSE) in 2009 was only about USD 3 million.

Now figures below za private capital flows ni pamoja na zile wenzetu ‘wazawa' wenye bahati ya kuwa na heka zao kadhaa na kufanikiwa kumpata mwekezaji toka nje aje alime nae mazao, au mzawa mwenye kiwanja chenye thamani kwahivyo mwekezaji anakuja kujenga hoteli, apartments etc.

Jedwali: Private capital inflows into Tanzania (2001 – 2009)

Year	Capital Inflows (%)	GDP Growth (%)
2009	1.9	6.7
2008	1.9	7.4
2007	3.5	7.1
2006	2.8	6.7
2005	6.6	7.3
2004	3.4	7.8
2003	3.7	6.9
2002	3.8	7.1
2001	3.7	6.0
2000	4.5	5

Source: World Bank

Tunagundua haraka kwamba by 2009, we were at the lowest point in terms of foreign capital inflows i.e at 1.9% katika kipindi cha miaka kumi (2000 – 2009) na pia tunagundua kumbe ule uchumi ulioanza kukua kwa kasi ya ajabu ulitokana na mitaji toka nje, sio za ndani which is understandable. Cha kuangalia kwa ukaribu hapa ni: Kwanini hapo awali tuliona domestic credit provided by the banking sector (ambayo ofcoz ndio source kubwa kwa SMEs) ilikuwa inazidi kuteremka huku GDP ikipaa na foreign capital entry nayo ikipaa? Hii inaonyesha kwamba huu sio uchumi wetu, ni uchumi wa ‘wenyewe';
Tumalizie kwa kuangalia, je hizi capital inflows from nje zilienda ku stimulate what economic activities na hizi activities zina real value ya namna gani kwa the 70% of Tanzanians. Tunachojaribu ni kuangalia ule uchumi ulioanza kupaa from the year 2000 ambao uliambatana na kushuka kwa domestic credit from banks to firms in Tanzania sambamba na an increase in foreign capital flows kwenda kuwekezwa kwenye various sector, nani ametajirika na nani amezidi kuwa maskini, na kwanini maskini kawa maskini na tajiri kawa tajiri?

Jedwali: Sectoral contribution to real GDP by economic activities (%)

	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Agriculture	28.6	28.7	29.5	27.6	26.2	25.7%	24.6%	25.5%	26.5
Mining	2.1	2.4	2.6	2.9	3.2	3.5	3.3	3.5	3.7
Manufacturing	8.3	8.3	8.1	7.9	7.8	7.8	8.3	9.4	10.2
Electricity	2	1.9	1.8	1.7	1.5	1.6	1.7	1.8	2.0
Water Supply	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.5
Construction	6.8	8	7.9	7.8	7.8	7.8	7.9	8.6	9.4
Trade and Repair	12.4	12	11.4	11	11.4	11.5	11.8	12.7	13.8
Hotel and Restaurants	2.6	2.4	2.3	2.5	2.6	2.7	2.3	2.4	2.3
Transport	5	4.8	4.6	4.4	4.3	4.2	5	5.3	5.7
Communication	1.2	1.3	1.5	1.7	1.7	2.3	2.1	2.6	3.2
Financial Services	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.7	1.8	2.0
Real estate	9.7	9.4	9.1	8	9.6	9.5	9	9.7	10.3
Public administration	7.2	7.2	7.7	7.7	8	8	8.1	8.7	9.3

Source: Delloitte

• Tunaona kwamba GDP inachangiwa sana na activities za kilimo.

Maswali:

• Je, how much investment goes to Kilimo?
• Je, mchango wa kilimo unatokana na quality of investment or quantity of peasants (70% of the labour force)?
• Jibu ni kwamba takwimu hizi strongly suggest kwamba kilimo hakipati much credit flows na ingawa huko ndio majority of labour force ipo. Huo ndio uchumi uchwara wa Mkullo. The real quality ya contribution of sekta ya kilimo can be seen from value added figures below.

Jedwali: Agriculture Value Added

Year	Annual Growth	(% of GDP)	Value added per worker in dollars
2009	3.2	28	$283
2008	4.5	29	$281
2007	4	29	$275
2006	3.8	30	$270
2005	4	31	$266
2004	5.9	33	$261

Source: World Bank
Note: Value added per worker in 1990 was $219, so only a change of $83 in 20 years.

• Nadhani tayari tunapata picha halisi ya uchumi uchwara wa Mkullo in the context of "KILIMO KWANZA" kwani hapo juu we see kwamba value added kwenye sekta ya kilimo is actually declining.

Je tukirudi kwenye Jedwali letu la awali on: Sectoral Contribution to real GDP by economic activities (hapo juu):Je, ni sekta gani nje ya kilimo zina intense economic activities? Je zina linkages zipi na majority of Tanzanians (70%) vijijini? Tumeshaona kilimo kina mchango ingawa wakulima hawapati mikopo yoyote ya maana; je watanzania wengi (out of the 70%) wapo katika sekta nyingine zipi ili tujue wanafaidika vipi? kwani kwa kwaida, the more economically active the sector, the more attractive it becomes to the banking sector, thereby faidisha wazawa. I have figures ‘valued added' figures za manufacturing sector (chemicals, food beverages, textiles and clothing, machinery and transport equipments), kwa kweli ni za kusikitisha, san asana kutokana na matatizo ya umeme lakini pia low productivity ya the manufacturing sector in general, sasa sijui tatizo ni access to credit? Small domestic market? Inferior technology to compete with foreign goods nje as well as imported goods? Lack of innovation? Poor sectoral policies, atleast from the implementation perspective? I don't know, but all I know is Uchumi wa Mkullo na Ndullu ni Uchwara.

Mchambuzi ,

Narrowness of the credit sector inatokana na factors nyingi na wewe umeangalia upande mmoja tu wa serikali na priorities zake but among other factors is tabia ya mabenki ya nchini kuwa tabia ya kuogopa kukopesha watu wa kawaida. Hivyo badala ya kulaumu serikali pekee na sisi watanzania we share the part of the blame kwa kutokuwa waaminifu na matapeli katika mahusiano yetu na mabenki. Kuhusu government guarantee loans to SMEs niliwahi kusema mwaka 2009 kuwa hilo ni another EPA in the making since no one knows who needs the money to borrow and what agricultural sectors needs the loan.

Labda nikuulize Mchambuzi wewe unashaurije akina Mkulo na Ndulu nini wafanye kuokoa hali iliyopo?

 

[Mtoboasiri]

Sijakuelewa Dar si Lamu....

Huwezi kumuelewa maana hata yeye mwenyewe hajielewi! Anaganga njaa tu!

 

[Godwine]

Godwine,

Wewe sio uliyesema unapendelea Shillingi ishuke zaidi. Halafu huu ushauri la viwanda unaweza kutuambia viwanda bila ya watu hela mifukoni hivyo viwanda vitamuuzia nani bidhaa??? Viwanda bila ya umeme vitazalisha nini? Ushauri wako nadhani umekaa kisiasa zaidi ya kitaaluma i suggest fikiria vizuri zaidi kwani viwanda haviwezi kuokoa uchumi wa Tanzania kwasasa.

Mkulo na Ndulu have themselves to blame for this disaster kwasababu walikuwa wanaopportunity kuavert hii crisis kabla haijakuwa worse off. Hakuna mtu ana chuki binafsi (kama kawaida yetu kila kitu tunachukulia siasa tu) ila tunasemea kwamba wanatakiwa waact in the interest of the nation na sio kufanya maamuzi ya kisiasa. Umeme limekuwa tatizo tangu 2009 kwanini waziri wa fedha asimshinikize waziri mwenzie wa nishati kulitafutia ufumbuzi wa kudum
u? Kwanini waziri wa fedha asitenge budget (emergency budget to save the nation from the brink of economic collapse)? Kwanini waziri asiwe na alternative plan ya kuongeza vyanzo vya kodi ikiwa sekta ya uzalishaji na huduma itazorota baada ya matatizo ya umeme?

Wanalaumika kwa kuwa tu wameachia mzunguko mkubwa wa fedha katika uchumi uliotokana na kuingiza fedha mpya na zamani. Matokeo yakawa kuongezeka kwa purchasing power na inflationary pressures.
Hakuna mtu ana chuki binafsi na mtu

kwanza kabisa naomba tuweke wazi kwanza kuwa fedha ni njia ya mbadilishano tu, lakini biashara inaweza kufanyika bila ya uwepo we fedha

Lazima tutambue ya kua exchange rate na inflation ni vitu viwili tofauti ingawa kuna wakati vinakuwa na mahusiano, kwasasa kupanda kwa bei katika nchi yetu kunamahusiano moja kwa moja kupanda kwa thamani ya dola ya marekani sababu ni kuwa bidhaa nyingi tunazotumia tunaziagiza kwa kutumia fedha hii ya dola ya kimarekani,

kutokana na mahitaji makubwa ya dola ya kimarekani imesababisha mahitaji yake kuwa makubwa (high demand) , hivyo basi kama tungeweza kuzalisha bidhaa nyingi nchini kwetu tungeweza kupunguza mahitaji ya dola katika kuagiza bidhaa . demand ya dola ingekuwa chini na fedha yetu isingeshuka thamani kulinganisha na dola kwa kiasi hiki,

Lakini katika balance of trade(uwiano wa kibiashara) ili uwe katika nafasi nzuri ya kiuchumi ni lazima uwe unauza nje bidhaa au huduma yenye kiasi kikubwa kuliko wewe unavyoagiza toka nje. lakini sisi kutokana na kutokuwepo na viwanda vya kutosha basi tunafanya kinyume na mahitaji ya kanuni yani tuanaagiza vingi kuliko tunavyouza.

Kuna watu wengi wanazani wizara ya fedha inaandaa bajeti za wizara zote. kila wizara inaandaa bajeti ya awali katika waizara husika na kuiwasilisha kwa wizara ya fedha. Wizara ya fedha inachofanya ni majumuisho ya bajeti ili ziendane na kuwango cha pato la taifa na matarajio ya makusanyo katika kipindi husika.

Kama wizara ya Viwanda wameandaa bajeti yao ya kiasi kidogo na kutoweka fedha kwa ajili ya upanuzi wa viwanda sahau kuwa wizara ya fedha wataweka fedha pasipo kuombwa na wizara husika.

Hivyo ukisema mkulo ndio awashinikize wizara ya viwanda na Nishati ni kitu ambacho hakiwezi kutokea na sidhani kinaweza kutokea na kikitokea ni kama utani tu na si utendaji na majukumu yake

 

[Mchambuzi]

Mchambuzi ,

Narrowness of the credit sector inatokana na factors nyingi na wewe umeangalia upande mmoja tu wa serikali na priorities zake but among other factors is tabia ya mabenki ya nchini kuwa tabia ya kuogopa kukopesha watu wa kawaida. Hivyo badala ya kulaumu serikali pekee na sisi watanzania we share the part of the blame kwa kutokuwa waaminifu na matapeli katika mahusiano yetu na mabenki. Kuhusu government guarantee loans to SMEs niliwahi kusema mwaka 2009 kuwa hilo ni another EPA in the making since no one knows who needs the money to borrow and what agricultural sectors needs the loan.

Labda nikuulize Mchambuzi wewe unashaurije akina Mkulo na Ndulu nini wafanye kuokoa hali iliyopo?

kwanza kabisa, naomba niseme hakuna anaetoa lawama hapa kwa serikali mdondoaji, at least not me, what i am doing is 'nina hoji', na natumia takwimu hizo hizo zinazotolewa na serikali, nimejaribu kukaa mbali kabisa na siasa, i am talking numbers and policy mzee;

Kuhusu credit to SMEs, kama umekuwa unanifuatilia, especially in the context of my original post, nimeongelea sana about the relationship between the banking sector and SMEs, independently from the role of the government in this mix; kwakifupi, what Ndullu did with the bank rate and the cash reserve requirement was to control the flow of credit from banks to domestic firms (SMEs included) and we had a discussion on that;

Kuna tatizo kama unavyosema kwa upande wa watanzania pia in terms of uaminifu and stuff when it comes to mikopo but kwa bahati mbaya, sababu hiyo hiyo imekuwa kichaka kwa taasisi zetu za fedha kukwepa watanzania wengine ambao they are credit worthy; ila tatizo hili linaanza kupungua ingawa safari bado ni ndefu sana; tatizo kubwa la watanzania wengi juu ya mikopo sio uaminifu, ni collateral, otherwise benki haitumii vigezo vya uaminifu kumpa mtu mkopo, labda marekani kwenye nchi yenye credit system whereby mtu au taasisi inaangaliwa credit history yake; miaka ya mwisho ya utawala wa mkapa alianzisha mkakati mzuri sana wa ku formalize assets za watanzania akisaidiwa na mchumi mmoja aliekuwa mshauri wake kutoka south america, someone 'desoto'; desoto argued kwamba kuna so much dead capital in Tanzania but just because haina hati na haijafanyiwa valuation, inaonekana useless; he even came up with a figure showing such assets to be in billions of dollars; upon completion, mradi huu ulikuwa usaidie watu sasa wawe na title deeds za viwanja vyao, mashamba yao, nyumba zao na ziwe na valuation so that mtu akitaka kwenda kuchukua mkopo benki asipate shida; serikali ya sasa sijui kama ili pick up from Mkapa on that; washauri wa mkapa kiuchumi kina Kwaku (mghana from the world bank), hernando desoto na wao wakayeyuka wakati administration nyingi huwa zinawabakiza wataalam kama hawa hata kama anaechukua nchi ni mtu kutoka chama kingine cha upinzani; mfano Obama ameacha watu wengi tu, hata Greespan alibakia;

Kuhusu swali lako je Mkullo na Ndullu wafanye nini kuokoa hali iliyopo, hiyo ndio sababu yangu ya kuleta hii mada ili tuijadili mzee; mimi siwezi kuwa na jibu, nachofanya ni kuchukua hoja mbalimbali humu na kuzifanyia kazi zaidi kwa kuzichambua then kurudisha mawazo yangu kama nimevyokuwa nafanya. Ni wajibu wetu wote interested in this thread kukubadilana na diagnosis then propose cure kwa pamoja na vile vile prevention; it is my belief kwamba we are doing great on that end so far na nashukuru sana for your valuable input;

 

[Ndinani]

Nashukuru sana Ndinani kwa kunipa moyo kwani mimi nia yangu ni kutoa mchango wangu tu badala ya kulalamikia serikali vijiweni. Kuhusu Magazeti, aslimia ya watanzania wanaosoma magazeti sio zaidi ya 2% Ndinani, njia nzuri ya kuwafikia wengi ni kupitia mijadala ya kwenye Radio kwani vijana wengi hivi sasa wamekuwa na interest kubwa sana ya kusikia mijadala kuhusu maendeleo ya nchi; kwahiyo vijana kadhaa wakijipanga na mada zao watawaifikia wengi sana, hasa wa vijijini; ila kuhusu wabunge, kama unaona content yangu ina mambo mazuri for them to grasp, njia ya gazeti hapo itafaa kwa kweli, nashukuru sana kwa ushauri huo;

Kuhusu Lipumba, nilimtaja tu kama mwanasiasa ambae kabobea katika uchumi na huwa ana hoja nzuri sana, sasa ili apimwe, ushauri wangu ni kwamba Rais amteue mbunge na ampe nafasi katika kamati ya Kigoda ya uchumi na Fedha tuone mchango wake, vinginevyo upo sahihi kabisa kwamba kuna wachumi wazuri sana ambao hawapo in main stream thoughts. Kuhusu Rwegasira nimemsoma sana na nakubaliana na wewe juu ya uwezo wa mtu huyu, ila bado yupo huyu mtu? Kuna kitabu chake nilisoma, cha siku nyingi but still very useful alikiandika na wenzake - Green (from University of Sussex) and Brian Arkadie (from institute of Social Studies, the hague) - kitabu cha 1982 titled - Economic Schocks and National Policy Making: Tanzania in the 1970s; this is a very good read.

Mchambuzi usikatishwe tamaa hasa kwa kijana kama wewe uliyesoma vizuri hawa minions wataandika ilil ukate tamaa, endelea na juhudi zako za kuchambua mambo, you are on the right track. Lipumba akiwa mbunge he will be compromised muache apige kelele huku huku nje kwa kupitia CUF, akiingia bungeni viposho vitamzidi nguvu kama wenzie wengi tuliowaona wameingia humo wamedoda!! Professor Delphine Rwegasira yupo anafundisha uchumi UDSM, buheri wa afya na amekwisha staafu toka IMF na kumbuka aliwahi kuwa Director wa Research BOT kwa muda mrefu wengi walio senior managers waliwahi kufanya kazi chini yake. He could make a fantastic Governor!! Record yake as Research Director speaks for itself.

 

[Ndinani]

kwanza kabisa, naomba niseme hakuna anaetoa lawama hapa kwa serikali mdondoaji, at least not me, what i am doing is 'nina hoji', na natumia takwimu hizo hizo zinazotolewa na serikali, nimejaribu kukaa mbali kabisa na siasa, i am talking numbers and policy mzee;

Kuhusu credit to SMEs, kama umekuwa unanifuatilia, especially in the context of my original post, nimeongelea sana about the relationship between the banking sector and SMEs, independently from the role of the government in this mix; kwakifupi, what Ndullu did with the bank rate and the cash reserve requirement was to control the flow of credit from banks to domestic firms (SMEs included) and we had a discussion on that;

Kuna tatizo kama unavyosema kwa upande wa watanzania pia in terms of uaminifu and stuff when it comes to mikopo but kwa bahati mbaya, sababu hiyo hiyo imekuwa kichaka kwa taasisi zetu za fedha kukwepa watanzania wengine ambao they are credit worthy; ila tatizo hili linaanza kupungua ingawa safari bado ni ndefu sana; tatizo kubwa la watanzania wengi juu ya mikopo sio uaminifu, ni collateral, otherwise benki haitumii vigezo vya uaminifu kumpa mtu mkopo, labda marekani kwenye nchi yenye credit system whereby mtu au taasisi inaangaliwa credit history yake; miaka ya mwisho ya utawala wa mkapa alianzisha mkakati mzuri sana wa ku formalize assets za watanzania akisaidiwa na mchumi mmoja aliekuwa mshauri wake kutoka south america, someone 'desoto'; desoto argued kwamba kuna so much dead capital in Tanzania but just because haina hati na haijafanyiwa valuation, inaonekana useless; he even came up with a figure showing such assets to be in billions of dollars; upon completion, mradi huu ulikuwa usaidie watu sasa wawe na title deeds za viwanja vyao, mashamba yao, nyumba zao na ziwe na valuation so that mtu akitaka kwenda kuchukua mkopo benki asipate shida; serikali ya sasa sijui kama ili pick up from Mkapa on that; washauri wa mkapa kiuchumi kina Kwaku (mghana from the world bank), hernando desoto na wao wakayeyuka wakati administration nyingi huwa zinawabakiza wataalam kama hawa hata kama anaechukua nchi ni mtu kutoka chama kingine cha upinzani; mfano Obama ameacha watu wengi tu, hata Greespan alibakia;

Kuhusu swali lako je Mkullo na Ndullu wafanye nini kuokoa hali iliyopo, hiyo ndio sababu yangu ya kuleta hii mada ili tuijadili mzee; mimi siwezi kuwa na jibu, nachofanya ni kuchukua hoja mbalimbali humu na kuzifanyia kazi zaidi kwa kuzichambua then kurudisha mawazo yangu kama nimevyokuwa nafanya. Ni wajibu wetu wote interested in this thread kukubadilana na diagnosis then propose cure kwa pamoja na vile vile prevention; it is my belief kwamba we are doing great on that end so far na nashukuru sana for your valuable input;

Mdondoaji. nadhani umefurahia sikukuu ya Eid kwa neema na amani; kwakumuuliza mchambuzi angemshauri nini waziri wa fedha nadhani hapo humtendei haki kijana, kwanza kabisa huyu kijana amechambua na kuonesha kwanini monetary policy intervention ya BOt haiwezi kuwa suluhisho la kudumu la mfumuko wetu wa bei unaowatesa the majority of our people, na wewe pia ulishaandika kwenye uzi wako kuwa ulisha wahi waambia wakubwa kuwa measures zao haziwezi kuzaa matunda na sababu ulikuwa nazo ambazo zilikuwa sahihi kabisa. Mimi nadhani ukikutana nao hawa waheshimiwa waeleze kuwa structural transformation ya uchumi wetu ndio suluhisho la muda mrefu wa matatizo yetu both inflation na depreciation of the value of the shililing. This transformation will only succeed if Mkullo, Ndullu and the whole of the Kikwete government put the country's priorities in order!!Barabara lazima zijengwe ilil mazao yafike sokono kwa bei nafuu, Reli lazima itengemae mizigo mikubwa na mizito iweze kusafirishwa kwa reli badala ya barabara ambayo ni ghali, Bandari ishuhulikiwe ili iongeze ufanisi, the energy issue has to be addressed in its totality ili iviwanda viweze kuzalisha mali za kuuza nje ya nchi. Ili haya yote yafanyike yanahitaji layout kubwa ambayo itapatikana iwapo serikali idhamilie badala ya kununua majumba ya fahari New-york na Washington hizo fedha zingetumika kuwalipa contractors wa barabara waliosimamisha ujenzi wao kwasababu ya kutokulipwa. Serikali pia akipunguza matumizi yasiyo ya lazima [vikiwemo wizi kwenye halmashauri pamoja na rushwa kwenye contracts] tunaweza pata mshiko angalau kidogo kusaidia hii transformation.The big picture should be analysed and implemented in a similar manner. Migodi ya dhahabu kama Barrick ibanwe ili ilipe royalty/kodi stahiki badala ya sasa wanalipa wanavyotaka wao!! Sasa Mdondoaji wewe unaweza pengine kusaidia kwa hii migodi isikwepe kodi kama uko huko ndani, usiogope kuwaeleza hao wakubwa kwani kama kazi umeishafanya zote duniani iliyobaki kuanza kuswali tu badala ya kumeza brandy!!

 

[Ndinani]

naamini ni dr philip mpango, dr khamisi mwinyimvua and mrs elsie kanza.
kama sikosei dr. mwinyimvua alifundishwa na prof. ndulu udsm

Wote hao Mpango na Mwinyimvua ni vijana wake aliwafundisha na akawanao pale World Bank country office alipofanya kazi pale kwa muda na yeye ndio kawapachika pale walipo kwahiyo influence yake kwao ni kubwa!! Hivyo yupo Ikulu ,BOT na hazina pia!! It is tragic for the country, no wonder he manouvred and succeeded to remove DR.BUKUKU from BOT who was known to be an independent thinker.

 

[Mchambuzi]

Kwa kuanzia, Ndullu aingilie the other 50% of the money in circulation, the 20b shillings per day ambayo ameamua aidha kwa makusudi au kwa kuzidiwa nguvu na vodacom kutoiingilia na hivyo kubakia with only the other half of the money in circulation from commercial banks which is about 20b shillings a day; Jumla ya transactions nchini daily i.e. the total amount of cash exchanging hands in this economy is 40b shillings, with 20bil being M-PESA alone; Ndullu's intervention with cash reserve requirements and bank rate is useless kama ataendelea kuwaogopa M-PSA. These people need to be monitored na BOT;

Kwa upande wa Mkullo, yeye kwa atafute njia nyingine kutafuta fedha for his mini budget that might be presented anytime; the tax base is already over stretched, asiende huko (unless ni kwenye madini tunaponyonywa) or else kuongeza kodi kwa walala hoi itazidi kuleta matatizo ya kisiasa, kijamii na kiuchumi; otherwise in the next budget assuming atakuwa bado waziri wa fedha, aonyeshe kuwa anajitahidi kupunguza budget deficit, not expanding it; pia ratio ya matumizi ya kawaida versus ya maendeleo has to be narrowed down, not a level of 6:4 ya sasahivi; kwa miaka mingi sana, kila bajeti, fedha zinazotengwa kwa ajili ya maendeleo hazizidi 40% ya bajeti yote, atleast 60% inaenda kwanye matumizi ya mishahara na posho; inawezekana hii ni sababu ya kuwatuliza urban elites at the expense of the rural mass but meza zikigeuka, itakuwa kazi zaidi kuwatuliza the rural mass;

JK ahutubie wananchi kuhusu hali ya uchumi ilivyo kwa sasa, kwanini tumefika hapa, tunatokaje na tutajikinga vipi in the future, bila kuegemea sana on events happening in the world market kwani watendaji wake wanachangia sana matatizo yaliyopo sasa; mfano, kwanini mpaka leo Tanzania haina strategic reserves za mafuta? Ni sisi ambao ni the only country with no strategic reserve, why, why, why?; pakizuka vita hapa au itokee ukanda wa bahari ukapata tsunami sijui kitu gani na bandari zetu tatu zisifanye kazi kwa muda, nchi hii itamalizika kwa sababu ni nchi pekee katika dunia ya leo isiyokuwa na strategic reserve ya mafuta; na hili pia linachangia bei ya mafuta kuwa juu kwani kama hauna akiba it means unanunua mafuta at the current going rate; Pia ni kwanini zile depo za mafuta mikoani zimefutwa, kumnufaisha nani? kwanini watu wa mikoani wasipate mafuta toka depo zao huko huko zilizo chini ya TPDC badala ya kutegemea yasafirishwe toka Dar kila siku? Ikibidi hivyo, then kwanini hiyo isiwe ndio iwe biashara ya kuifufua reli yetu ya kati? nchi gani dunia ya leo inategemea mafuta ya nchi yasafirishwe na malori? malori have to be sehemu ndogo, majority ni treni na pipelines; au Kuna njama hapa ya kuua TRC? Kwani miaka ya nyuma mwalimu alipotaka jenga Tazara alipata pingamizi kubwa sana toka kwa mabepari kwani waliona kiwanda cha firestone cha kenya kitakosa biashara ya matairi ya malori na mabasi; je tunarudia tatizo lile lile? Mwalimu aliamua songa mbele na ikabidi ategemee China.

Hakuna nyakati tunazomuhitaji Mwalimu Nyerere kama sasa. kama tumeweza fufua ATC ambayo sekta yake ina ushindani mkubwa mno, tumeshindwa fufua TRC kwanini? Tunafahamu kilichoua ATC ni ndoa na SA Airways kwani wao nia yao ni kutawala anga la Afrika, ndio maana Kenya waliwakataa kabisa na kujiunga na KLM; SA airways walikuja kwa dhamira moja tu - kuua ATC na walifanikiwa katika hilo; Tunashindwaje fufua TRC sekta ambayo ni uti wa mgongo wa taifa lolote lile, na biashara yake ya mafuta na cargo in general ipo wazi, na haina ushindani? Bila shaka, kama wakubwa wangekuwa na biashara iliyoshamiri ya usafiri wa ungo, basi ATC ingetishia sana biashara yao na hivyo kupelekea ATC kufa moja kwa moja. Hicho ndicho kifo kinachoinyemelea TRC lakini tutapigana mpaka kieleweke kwani mwalimu hakujenga miuondo mbinu hii kwa manufaa binafsi au kwa malengo ya kubahatisha.
Kwanini TPDC hadi leo haijapewa hata shillingi na serikali baada ya serikali kuamua kuiruhusu kushiriki katika shughuli ya mafuta? Kwanini Stiglers Gorge haipewi mwekezaji? kuna investors walikuwa tayari kujenga lile bwana within 5 yrs kwa hela zao wenyewe na kuzalisha over 2000 MW za umeme which is twice ya mahitaji ya sasa ya nchi, kuipa serikali hisa nyingi tu, na kuuza umeme mwingine kwa majirani kwani ungekuwa ni mwingi sana but nasikia kigogo mmoja alihoji, umeme wote huu tutaupeleka wapi! Kwanini that project was shelved kama kweli nia ni kuinua uchumi wetu? if that project was launched in 2006, by this year tungesema kwaheri mgao;

Pia Mchuchuma, waziri wa madini wa wakati ule Daniel Yona aliwahi sema kuna makaa ya kuweza washa umeme Tanzania kwa miaka mia moja bila mgao, kwanini tunasua sua kuwaachia wawekezaji wenye uwezo kufanikisha hilo? Yote haya yanaonyesha sababu kubwa za matatizo ya sasa zi za kujitakia, events in the global economy sio kielelezo pekee; Washauri wa Rais Kikwete wanamuangusha sana na hivyo kupelekea watanzania zaidi ya milioni 30 kuendelea kuishi katika lindi la umaskini huku viongozi wakijificha kwenye migongo na visingizio vya global events kama ndio chanzo pekee. Global events zinakukumba kama haujajipanga; mbona Botswana and increasingly Rwanda wapo more resilient? Do you think viongozi wao wanauthubutu wa kuwaambia wananchi matatizo yenu yanatokana sijui na machafuko Libya sijui nini? Bila umakini, Chadema itachukua nchi kwa sababu ambazo CCM ingeweza zirekebisha kama wangeweka nchi kwanza, ubinafsi baadae.