Mugabe unlikely to be swept from power

ByaseL · 2011-02-22T09:02:48+00:00

Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe is unlikely to be forced out by a popular uprising like those in Egypt and Tunisia and plans to entrench his 31-year rule through elections later this year, analysts said. His election plans have angered impoverished Zimbabweans and led to clashes between supporters of the ruling Zanu-PF party and those of the Movement for Democratic Change, formerly the main opposition, now his uneasy coalition partner. The protests which toppled Hosni Mubarak and Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in Egypt and Tunisia have not gone unnoticed in Zimbabwe but Mugabe's supporters have vowed to keep their elderly leader in power. Political analysts say that while conditions are ripe for mass anti-government protests, and Zimbabweans follow events in the Arab world on satellite television, the ruling party's tight control of the security forces and state institutions mean protests are unlikely to succeed. Also, the Internet and cellphones were used extensively in Egypt and Tunisia to coordinate protests, but this would be difficult in Zimbabwe where just over half the population have cellphones and only 12% have access to the internet. "There is so much less power and capacity to organise using technology that we have seen in North Africa. This puts people at a real disadvantage," said Sisonke Msimang, executive director of the Open Society Initiative for Southern Africa. The army and police have a long history of cracking down on opposition protests, and in the 1980s North Korean-trained Zimbabwean troops killed thousands when they crushed a five-year insurgency in Matabeleland province. Elections since 2002 have also been marked by violent state crackdowns on the opposition. A disputed 2008 election was marred by violence which the MDC says was orchestrated by the military and left more than 200 of its supporters dead. Security chiefs, many of whom have been given farms seized from white farmers, say they would not accept a president who did not fight in the 1970s independence war, a reference to Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, Mugabe's long-time rival. "It is not easy to get crowds onto streets in Zimbabwe, as the security apparatus is thoroughly controlled by Zanu-PF and they have not hesitated to intimidate and inflict pain on dissenters or opposition members willing to protest," said Mark Schroeder, sub-Saharan Africa analyst at Stratfor

Thread starter ByaseL
Start date Feb 22, 2011

ByaseL

JF-Expert Member

Feb 22, 2011

pmwasyoke

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