That's a good question. There are two routes to industrialization katika nchi kama zetu ambazo zilishakosa mapinduzi ya viwanda late 19[SUP]th[/SUP] to 20[SUP]th[/SUP] centrury:
· IMPORT SUBSTITUTION STRATEGY (ISS)
· EXPORT PROMOTION STRATEGY (EPS).
Import Substitution Strategy (ISS) – Hapa, a country produces products to replace imports. This was very common during Ujamaa and also in many parts of South America and Some Asian countries (not Asian Tigers), during the post colonial period. In these countries, they had just won political independence na sasa kazi ilikuwa ni kujaribu ku undergo agricultural transformation that would led to the development of the modern sector – Viwanda. The idea was to get rid of the system left by wakoloni, of to: Produce What You Don't Consume and Consume What You Don't Produce. Mfumo huu ndio ule ambao Walter Rodney anaujadili in his ingenious work: How Europe Under Developed Africa. This man was shot dead later.
Tanzania hatukuwa na choice zaidi ya hiyo ya ISS (we will see punde why), na hatukwenda nayo mbali despite kuweza fikisha industrial contribution to GDP wakati wa Mwalimu to 12%, level ambayo haijawahi fikiwa tena Tanzania hadi leo. It is important kwa wanaomkebehi Mwalimu kujua kwamba ISS was the only industrial strategy option available for us, including all newly independent countries of that time, unless the WEST wanted otherwise (we will see what I mean by that, shortly). Na nchi nyingi sana Asia na South America, zilifeli kama Tanzania na ISS baadae, bila ya kujali kama walikuwa wajamaa au walikuwa wanafuata soko huria.
Export Promotion Strategy – This is the second route to industrialization, and the focus here is to produce for the purpose to export. This was pursued by South Korea, Malaysia and other so called Newly Industrialized Countries – the Asian Tigers. Watu, including wanasiasa wetu, huwa wanajichanganya sana wanapojenga hoja kwamba South Korea walikuwa kama Tanzania in terms of Per Capita Income in the 1960s, lakini wao sasa hivi wapo mbali, na kwamba if we had followed or now follow their strategy, tungekuwa/titaenda mbali; Hoja za namna hii zinashindwa kuelewa kwamba hili suala sio la black and white as they think, kwani Asian Tigers wameendelea kwa sababu ya Cold War, kule ilikuwa ni battle ground. Zilifanywa ziwe Satellite states za WEST wakati wa Cold War and US, Britain, Japan, West Germany, France, etc, did all they could to make sure kwamba the Soviet did not occupy these countries na ukomunist, hivyo kuwapa all the goodies waone Ubepari Unalipa;
In the process, the WEST gave these countries so much aid to finance capitalism kiserikali, whereby bureaucrats ndio walikwa entrepreneurs; The west pia wakawapa ahadi kwamba watawafungulia mipaka ili bidhaa zao zote za viwandani ziende Japan, and the West, hence Export Promotion Strategy; Akili moja waliyokuja nayo hawa tigers ikawa kuendeleza sekta ya elimu haraka na zile fedha, kwani in 1950s, South Korea kwa mfano, less than 20% of the population walikuwa wanajua kusoma na kuandika, na over 70% of the country was rural and agricultural based economy. Wakafanya yale yale ya Mwalimu Nyerere on elimu bure, waka invest in Science and Technology etc, hivyo kuweka misingi mizuri sana kwa fedha zile za bure.
Ni vizuri tukatambua kwamba mafanikio ya hawa wenzetu yalikuwa ni ya kupakatwa moja kwa moja, hayakuja by market forces, bali direct state intervention – state capitalism. Wakati wenzetu wakifaidi haya, sisi na the rest of the third world tukawa tunahenya na Kilimo chetu cha kikoloni, na kujitahidi na ISS strategy, kwani katika vita vya cold war, zaidi ya Zaire, hatukuwa na maana sana to the west. Mobutu angekuwa na kichwa cha Nyerere, ile nchi ingekuwa mbali sana. Otherwise the rest of the continent, kaburu aliachiwa jukumu la ku contain ukomunist, huku the west wakihakikisha we don't industrialize, kwani ukoloni mamboleo, just as ukoloni asili, nia yake ilikuwa kufanya Afrika iwe a permanent rural backyard for Europe and Amerika, by providing Cheap labour to kilimo, Raw Materials (mazao na madini) and Market for the west's industrial goods;
Swali la kujiuliza leo ni je:
Iwapo Tanzania tunataka viwanda, should we pursue again ISS? Au Tujaribu EPS? Au a combination of both?
As we already know, viwanda vya West baadae vilihamia nchi kama China, Vietnam, etc, kwani in the west, labour was costly na pia society ikaanza kuwa conscious na pollution etc; Since China, Vietman etc walikuwa wameshajipanga in S&T, Human Capital, institutions, infrastructure, etc, wakabahatika na mabadiliko ya WEST in terms of industrialization strategy zao; As of today, labour sio cheap tena in China, and increasingly nchi kama Vietnam etc, kutokana na improved quality of life of the population, uwepo wa the right institutions to protect workers' rights through legislations etc; So kwa sasa, the WEST is eyeing Africa and other countries in Asia and Latin America zilizokuwa nyuma kidogo kimaendelea lakini mbele zaidi ya wenzao kimaandalizi (human capital, S&T, miundombinu etc).
Challenge yetu Tanzania miundo mbinu kama reli, umeme wa uhakika, barabara za uhakika, educated labour force, national innovation systems zinazotokana na investments in Science and Technology etc; Na pia, kwa Mtazamo wangu unaoweza kuwa finyu, tukichagua ISS, we will only succeed if we operate in regional blocks e.g. SADC, EAC kwa ajili ya soko la pamoja na pia policy ya kuvilinda viwanda vyetu; Je, tuna jeusi/uwezo huo? On the other hand, if we go for EPS, we may face difficulties to set up export industries because of the competition from the more established and efficient industries Latin America, Asia as we have seen hapo juu; Muhimu zaidi ni kwamba, success under EPS, itahitaji tupate ile window kama waliyopata South Korea, Malaysia etc wakati wa Cold War; Otherwise tutakwama in no time, kwani bado kutakuwa na competition from maskini wenzetu wa Asia & South America ambao as we have seen wapo nyuma kidogo ya nchi kama Vietnam etc, lakini wapo mbele yetu sana in terms of strong institutional frameworks, miundo mbinu, innovation systems, educated labour force etc, hivyo kuwavutia WEST zaidi in terms of EPS.
Tuna safari ndefu sana, muhimu zaidi lakini ni kuwa na kiongozi/Rais Bora, ambae atakuwa sio George Washington wetu (BABA WA TAIFA), kwani tunae Mwalimu tayari kwenye hilo, bali yule ambae historia itamtunuku heshima kama ya Abraham Lincoln, Thomas Jefferson, au Tony Blair wa Tanzania.