Raila to beat Jubilee’s Uhuru in first round, says new poll

[Ab-Titchaz]

Raila to beat Jubilee's Uhuru in first round, says new poll

By ISAAC ONGIRI iongiri@ke.nationmedia.com ( email the author)

Posted Saturday, January 12 2013 at 00:30

In Summary

• Election survey shows the Prime Minister is ahead of the pack with 51 per cent against Mr Kenyatta's 39 per cent
• Survey says Cord coalition of PM and Kalonzo will beat Jubilee in the first round; Uhuru and Ruto to launch their campaign for top office today

Prime Minister Raila Odinga will secure a first round victory if the presidential election was held today, says a new opinion poll released on Friday.

The poll by Infotrak Research shows Mr Odinga of the Coalition for Reform and Democracy (Cord) would have garnered 51 per cent against Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta of Jubilee Coalition with 39 per cent of the votes.

It means the Cord team is running 12 percentage points ahead of the Jubilee coalition.

The findings came only 51 days to the General Election, a period within which political parties are expected to launch major campaigns that could tilt the balance in their favour.

The latest poll, conducted between December 28 last year and January 2, did not capture the impact of the official launch of Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi's presidential campaign and the move by New Ford Kenya leader to join the Amani coalition.

The poll showed that the UDF leader would have tied at three per cent with Mr Peter Kenneth of the Eagle coalition.

Narc Kenya's Martha Karua and her Restore and Build Kenya counterpart James ole Kiyiapi would have trailed with 0.3 per cent and 0.1 per cent respectively.

According to the poll, Cord is the most popular coalition with 49 per cent of the respondents supporting it. Jubilee enjoys 40 per cent of the support followed by UDF that commands three per cent.

Mr Kenneth's Eagle coalition enjoys two per cent of the national support.

Mr Odinga's popularity represented a massive jump in ratings compared to recent opinion polls.

In December, the same pollster projected that the PM's pairing with Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka would have won with 47 percent against a combination of Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto's 41 per cent.

But in November, Synovate opinion poll showed that Mr Odinga was leading with 33 per cent against Mr Kenyatta's 26 per cent.

http://elections.nation.co.ke/news/...poll/-/1631868/1663182/-/117f7sy/-/index.html

 

[Ngongo]

Mkuu Ab-Titchaz hii maneno Rutashubanyuma na Kabaridi wameiona ?.

 

[Mwita Maranya]

Mkuu Ab-Titchaz hii maneno Rutashubanyuma na Kabaridi wameiona ?.

Mkuu Ngongo hiyo maneno rafiki yangu Kabaridi ameshaiona na jana alinipa maoni yake, kwamba imefanyika mijini tu na wapiga kura wako mashinani.
Nilichoshangaa zaidi ni kwamba maoni haya ya kabaridi ni swa na maoni ya William Rutto juu ya opinion polls!

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

Mkuu Ab-Titchaz hii maneno Rutashubanyuma na Kabaridi wameiona ?.

Ngongo usichojua ni kuwa pollsters za hapa Afrika zimejaa ushabiki sana. Kumbukua Synovate na 61% iliyopangwa na JK mwenyewe na NEC wakairudia........can u trust them?? Unapoona sample ni watu 1500 na misingi ya hiyo sample hakuna anayeijua.....ujue lipo jambo.

Jingine pollsters wanatofautiana. Synovate kenya wanasema hakuna atakayeshinda raundi ya kwanza na ya pili hakuna atakayemshinda Uhuru...........which do you believe? Msema kweli ni kura zipigwe zihesabiwe tu........

 

[Royals]

Mkuu Ngongo hiyo maneno rafiki yangu Kabaridi ameshaiona na jana alinipa maoni yake, kwamba imefanyika mijini tu na wapiga kura wako mashinani.
Nilichoshangaa zaidi ni kwamba maoni haya ya kabaridi ni swa na maoni ya William Rutto juu ya opinion polls!

We hujui kuwa Kibaridi ndiyo mwenyewe huyo.

 

[Kabaridi]

We hujui kuwa Kibaridi ndiyo mwenyewe huyo.

Royals sidhani kama kuna mwanasiasa mkenya ambaye huwa anazuru JF mara kwa mara, they do not have such time.. Atapiga dili wakati gani?!

 

[Kabaridi]

Ngongo usichojua ni kuwa pollsters za hapa Afrika zimejaa ushabiki sana. Kumbukua Synovate na 61% iliyopangwa na JK mwenyewe na NEC wakairudia........can u trust them?? Unapoona sample ni watu 1500 na misingi ya hiyo sample hakuna anayeijua.....ujue lipo jambo.

Jingine pollsters wanatofautiana. Synovate kenya wanasema hakuna atakayeshinda raundi ya kwanza na ya pili hakuna atakayemshinda Uhuru...........which do you believe? Msema kweli ni kura zipigwe zihesabiwe tu........

Kweli ndugu rutta...Kuna synovate na infotrack moja yasema tofauti na mwingine.

Royals base sample ya watu 1500 kati ya wapiga kura 14 million

 

[nngu007]

Politics

GLANCE FACTS

Tough race

• Coalitions pair of Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and his running mate William Ruto would get 39 per cent of the votes cast to emerge second if polls are held today.

• Mudavadi's UDF party has been rated third with an approval rating of three per cent. The Eagle coalition that brings together Peter Kenneth's Kenya National Congress party and Raphael Tuju's Party of Action has a two per cent rating.


Updated Saturday, January 12 2013 at 00:00 GMT+3



[TABLE="width: 0"]
[TR]
[TD]

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
Results of opinion polls done by Infotrak[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

By Augustine Oduor

NAIROBI; KENYA: Coalition for Reforms and Democracy has been rated the most popular alliance among Kenyans today with an approval rating of 49 per cent.
The coalition's pair of PM Raila Odinga and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka would win the election today with some 51 per cent of the vote, according to a new study.

The Infotrak Harris poll conducted between December 28 and January 2 shows the Jubilee coalition comes second with a popularity rating of 40 per cent.

The coalition's pair of deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and his running mate William Ruto would get 39 per cent of the votes cast to emerge second if polls are held today.

The survey however casts doubts on possibility of a run off saying the ‘third force' may not be strong enough. "As things stand now, if the two coalitions mount an aggressive campaign ahead of the elections then a run off would be unlikely," said Infotrak CEO Angela Ambitho.

Approval rating
Musalia Mudavadi's UDF has been rated third with an approval rating of three per cent. Eagle coalition that brings together Peter Kenneth's Kenya National Congress party and Raphael Tuju's Party of Action has a two per cent rating.

But if polls are held today the Eagle coalition would get three per cent of the votes cast. Former Education PS James Kiyiapi and his Restore and Build Kenya party would only manage 0.1 per cent of the votes. The Pambazuka Coalition has an approval rating of 0.7 per cent as Martha Karua's Narc-Kenya having a popularity rating of 0.3 per cent.

A sample of 1,500 respondents was interviewed to represent the 14 million voters registered by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. The survey was conducted in 25 counties with a margin of error of 2.53 at a 95 per cent degree of confidence.

On regional support, CORD leads in all the provinces except Rift valley and Central. In Eastern and North Eastern, CORD enjoys 85 and 61 per cent support compared to 15 and 28 per cent for the Jubilee Coalition respectively.

The Raila and Kalonzo coalition also leads in Western and Nyanza with some 61 and 82 per cent rating. This also compares to Jubilee's three and 16 per cent rating in the same regions respectively.

However, Uhuru's coalition leads by 85 and 52 per cent in Central and Rift Valley, respectively. Mudavadi enjoys majority support in Western Province with 23 per cent support.

Ms Ambitho, however, said Nairobi and Mombasa counties may go either way of the coalitions depending on aggressiveness of the parties. According to the poll, CORD leads with 56 per cent against 38 of Jubilee. CORD also enjoys support in most of the counties where the polls were conducted.

In Nyanza for instance, CORD gets majority approval of all the four counties selected. These are Kisumu, Homabay, Migori and Kisii.

It also bags three of the selected counties at the coast-Mombasa, Kilifi and Taita Taveta. Jubilee, however, takes lead in all the three selected Nyeri, Murang'a and Kiambu counties in Central Province.

In the Rift Valley, Jubilee Alliance has a head start in Nandi, Nakuru, Uasin Gishu and Biomet. CORD only gets majority approval in Nark and Trans Nzoia of all the six counties selected for the survey. Further details of the findings indicate that if Mudavadi were to pull out of the race, 42.3 per cent of his supporters would vote for CORD. Only seven per cent of them would vote for Jubilee. Another 40 per cent of Narc-Kenya leader would vote for CORD Alliance, if she quits the race now.

If KNC leader, Kenneth, were to quit the presidential race, some 10. 3 per cent would vote for Uhuru's coalition. The other 30.8 would vote for Raila coalition.

Interestingly, 100 per cent of Kiyiapi's followers would vote for Cord were he to quit the race. Ambitho said the upcoming poll would be two horse race if the poll findings are anything to go by.

"If the coming polls will result into a three-horse race, the majority (52 per cent) of the surveyed respondents indicated that they would support CORD," she said. She said some 39 per cent of the voters would cast their ballots for the Jubilee Alliance as only nine per cent would vote for the third force.

The opinion poll suggests that many Kenyans would prefer Mudavadi and Kenneth alliance for the third force. "Assuming Mudavadi, Karua, Kenneth, Eugene Wamalwa and Kiyiapi were to create a third force, 32 per cent of the voters said they would prefer Mudavadi as the candidate and Kenneth as running mate," she said.

This survey could perhaps be a pointer to whom Mudavadi should talk to for a running mate. This is because, Kenneth candidature and Tuju as running mate would only attract 25.4 approval rating.

 

[Somoche]

Suala hapa sio hizo kura ni kwamba come march 4 AMOLLO NI RAIS wale watuhumiwa tunawaacha wamalize kesi kwanza...

 

[nngu007]

Mmeona VYAMA vya KENYA? Vinavyoungana na kutengana na WANANCHI wao hawabebi KADI za VYAMA -- NAPE NNAUYE UKO WAPI usome hii HABARI???

UKIANGALIA ORANGE PARTY ya ODINGA sasa hivi kimeungana na Chama Cha Kalonzo Muskoya na Sasa Muungano wao UNAITWA CORD... Na Unajua Kalonzo Muskoya Uchaguzi Uliopita kama chama chake kingejiunga na ORANGE cha ODINGA then ODINGA angekuwa Rais wa KENYA; lakini Tatizo ni kuwa hakuhakikishiwa nafasi ya Umakamu RAIS; Hakupenda hivyo

KENYA Siasa ZAO ni UONGOZI na walivyo WAKABILA wanapenda WATU wao WAWE MADARAKANI zaidi ya UTAIFA kama HAPA KWETU BONGO

 

[Royals]

Royals sidhani kama kuna mwanasiasa mkenya ambaye huwa anazuru JF mara kwa mara, they do not have such time.. Atapiga dili wakati gani?!

Haki ya nani aisee, Kabaridi wewe ni mheshimiwa sana wa URP.

 

[Ronal Reagan]

Siasa za Kenya ni tofauti na zina maajabu yake. Kwanza ni za kikabila/kikanda mno, pili zinaendeshwa kwa nguvu ya fedha (rushwa), tatu zina unasaba mwingi na pia mara nyingi sera ya uchumi ndio turufu ya sera zote.

Nijuavyo mimi kuna tishio kubwa la kususiwa na hata vikwazo vya kiuchumi na nchi za magharibi iwapo Kenyatta/Rutto watachaguliwa kwani bado wanaonekana ni wahalifu machoni pa mataifa mengi duniani. Lakini Wakikuyu (na baadhi ya makabila washirika) wameamua liwalo na liwe na kuwa lazima wampe mtu wao kura za urais.

Ktk siasa za Kenya tuna machache ya kujifunza na mengi ya kujiepusha nayo, IMO.

 

[Bilionea Asigwa]

naona kila bara jaluos wanataka kuweka mwakilishi..........

 

[mfianchi]

Ngongo usichojua ni kuwa pollsters za hapa Afrika zimejaa ushabiki sana. Kumbukua Synovate na 61% iliyopangwa na JK mwenyewe na NEC wakairudia........can u trust them?? Unapoona sample ni watu 1500 na misingi ya hiyo sample hakuna anayeijua.....ujue lipo jambo.

Jingine pollsters wanatofautiana. Synovate kenya wanasema hakuna atakayeshinda raundi ya kwanza na ya pili hakuna atakayemshinda Uhuru...........which do you believe? Msema kweli ni kura zipigwe zihesabiwe tu........

Kuna professor mmoja yupo Marekani alianiambia yeye hafanyi tafiti kwenye nchi za kiafrika sababu hakuna tafiti za kweli kuanzia kwa wahojiwa(respondents),watayarisha data,reports n.k,wote wanafanya uongo.Kwa mfano Tanzania ukimuuliza respondent kuwa kwanini unaipenda CCM,atakujibu sababu ina rangi ya Yanga(klabu ya mpira ya Yanga rangi zake ni manjano na kijani).Kaka ukienda field na pia ukaona questionnaires utacheshangaa,si hata kwenye sensa ya Tanzania mtu ana age ya miaka 6 yupo University na kaoa,na wengine hawahesabiwa lakini majina yao yapo kwenye hayo madodoso.Hata mimi hzo pollsters ni za kuwafurahisha walio wapa hiyo job na watu wao.Hata UDSM tulikuwa na research firm ya Chuo ambayo aliekuwa mkuu wake sasa ni Makamu wa Mkuu wa chuo,nayo ilikuwa inamuimba tu Kikwete,na sasa waliokuwa wanafadhili(wazungu)wakagoma kutoa misaada ya kifedha baada ya kuona haifanyi kazi kama ilivyotakiwa,sasa hiyo firm ipo ICU

 

[Nairoberry]

unfortunately infotrack is owned by relatives of raila read below all from one tribe

0n Friday, the Infotrak Harris released the much criticised poll that put the CORD alliance associated with Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka ahead of all other Presidential candidates.

The poll results generated a lot of political heat where critics argued that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party is using the pollster to market Prime Minister Raila Odinga's Presidential bid.

Since our aim is to inform Kenyans, we at the Kenyan DAILY POST without fear or favour, are going to expose the names behind the Infotrak Harris Company.

The company founder and group Chief Executive Officer (CEO) is Angela Ambitho

The General Manager is Tobias Otieno

Co- founder is Jerry Okungu

Senior researcher is Dr Adams Oloo

Qualitative and Head of Statistics is Daniel Obara

Senior Administration Officer is Lilian Awino

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

Kuna professor mmoja yupo Marekani alianiambia yeye hafanyi tafiti kwenye nchi za kiafrika sababu hakuna tafiti za kweli kuanzia kwa wahojiwa(respondents),watayari sha data,reports n.k,wote wanafanya uongo.Kwa mfano Tanzania ukimuuliza respondent kuwa kwanini unaipenda CCM,atakujibu sababu ina rangi ya Yanga(klabu ya mpira ya Yanga rangi zake ni manjano na kijani).Kaka ukienda field na pia ukaona questionnaires utacheshangaa,si hata kwenye sensa ya Tanzania mtu ana age ya miaka 6 yupo University na kaoa,na wengine hawahesabiwa lakini majina yao yapo kwenye hayo madodoso.Hata mimi hzo pollsters ni za kuwafurahisha walio wapa hiyo job na watu wao.Hata UDSM tulikuwa na research firm ya Chuo ambayo aliekuwa mkuu wake sasa ni Makamu wa Mkuu wa chuo,nayo ilikuwa inamuimba tu Kikwete,na sasa waliokuwa wanafadhili(wazungu)wakagoma kutoa misaada ya kifedha baada ya kuona haifanyi kazi kama ilivyotakiwa,sasa hiyo firm ipo ICU

mfianchi umesema kweli tupu..........

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

unfortunately infotrack is owned by relatives of raila read below all from one tribe

0n Friday, the Infotrak Harris released the much criticised poll that put the CORD alliance associated with Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka ahead of all other Presidential candidates.

The poll results generated a lot of political heat where critics argued that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party is using the pollster to market Prime Minister Raila Odinga's Presidential bid.

Since our aim is to inform Kenyans, we at the Kenyan DAILY POST without fear or favour, are going to expose the names behind the Infotrak Harris Company.

The company founder and group Chief Executive Officer (CEO) is Angela Ambitho

The General Manager is Tobias Otieno

Co- founder is Jerry Okungu

Senior researcher is Dr Adams Oloo

Qualitative and Head of Statistics is Daniel Obara

Senior Administration Officer is Lilian Awino

Nairoberry hawa Infortack leo wameumbuliwa pale uhuru park...................Nairobi yote imesimamisha shughuli na wapigakura zaidi ya 2 millions wamekuja kumuunga mkono uhru kenyatta........raila aandae concession speech ndilo lililobakia..........

 

[Mwita Maranya]

Nairoberry hawa Infortack leo wameumbuliwa pale uhuru park...................Nairobi yote imesimamisha shughuli na wapigakura zaidi ya 2 millions wamekuja kumuunga mkono uhru kenyatta........raila aandae concession speech ndilo lililobakia..........

Rutashubanyuma unajuaje kwamba Raila Odinga hatoweza kukusanya watu wengi siku akiingia uhuru park? siasa za Kenya bado zinaendeshwa kiukabila kwa percent kubwa lakini so far CORD wana sura ya kitaifa zaidi kutokana na vyama vinavyoshiriki muungano huo kuliko jubilee ambao ni dhahiri wamekaa kikabila-kikuyu-kalenjin.

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

Rutashubanyuma unajuaje kwamba Raila Odinga hatoweza kukusanya watu wengi siku akiingia uhuru park? siasa za Kenya bado zinaendeshwa kiukabila kwa percent kubwa lakini so far CORD wana sura ya kitaifa zaidi kutokana na vyama vinavyoshiriki muungano huo kuliko jubilee ambao ni dhahiri wamekaa kikabila-kikuyu-kalenjin.

Mwita Maranya kumbe umelala usingizi hata hujui Raila tayari alikwisha kuzindua kampeni zake pale uhuru park na mahudhurio hayafikii hata nusu ya hii ya leo? Kuhusu ukabila...................kenya is tribalistic and there is no a better than anybody else............................CORD ina sura ya utaifa na jubille ni makabila mawili tu.............Na Charity ngilu naye ni kabila ipi, Najib balala...........................ungeliwaona leo wakubwa wa Jubilee....................tatizo hata TV za matangazo ya kenya sidhani kama huwa unaiangalia......it is game over....................

 

[MkamaP]

Mwita Maranya kumbe umelala usingizi hata hujui Raila tayari alikwisha kuzindua kampeni zake pale uhuru park na mahudhurio hayafikii hata nusu ya hii ya leo? Kuhusu ukabila...................kenya is tribalistic and there is no a better than anybody else............................CORD ina sura ya utaifa na jubille ni makabila mawili tu.............Na Charity ngilu naye ni kabila ipi, Najib balala...........................ungeliwaona leo wakubwa wa Jubilee....................tatizo hata TV za matangazo ya kenya sidhani kama huwa unaiangalia......it is game over....................

Hata mie naamini game-over kwa Raila. Maana uhuru/ruto/balala.ngilu na wengine. mhhh Raila atapenya je hapo?