Mkuu lait ungejua sources za umeme zilivyo na mahesbu yake nafikiri usinge uliza swali kama hili na hasa ukizingatia usomi wako unaojaribu kuuuza kwetu, ni wa shule ya msingi au chuo cha mambo ya economics.
Naomba nikujuze kidogo kuhusu sources za umeme na mlolongo wake. Nafikiri unajua kuwa kuna souerces nyingi ambazo zina weza tumika kutupatia umeme, kama;
makaa ya mawe (coal), gesi yetu asilia (Natural gas), maji (hydro Power), nuclear power, Solar, wind na kadhalika.
Ukiiangalia nchi yetu nadhani utatambua kuwa hii nchi imebarikiwa na mwenyeezi mungu kwa kuwa na rasilimali zote tunazo zihitaji kuzalisha chuma. Makaa ya mawe tunayo, Gesi asilia pia tunayo na Uran nayo ipo sources ambazo tunaweza tukazitumia kuzalisha umeme utakao tumika kwenye kuzalisha products za chuma.
Technology na gharama za kuzalisha umeme ulimwenguni ni very very cheap na primitive. Tukiachana na Solar energy, sources nyingine zote zinahitaji aidha synchronous or asynchronous driven generators ambazo kwa namna moja au nyingine zimeunganishwa na Turbines au engines through a shaft.
Katika turbines unatumia nguvu za maji, mvuke au fuel. Na isitoshe unaweza uka combine Gas turbine na Steam turbine ukawa na G and S combined cycle unit. Yaani ni hivi; Gas turbine ina drive generator na kutoa umeme upande mmoja tuseme umeme wa 20MW na upande mwingine hewa ya joto kali linalo toka kwenye hiyo turbine linapelekwa kwenye Heat exchanger ambayo ina heat maji kuwa mwvuke na huo mvuke unakwenda ku drive Steam turbine ambayo nayo inatoa umeme kupitia generator iliyo unganishwa nayo ya let us say 15MW. Efficiency yake hapa kwenye combined cycle ni 80% to 90% ya total input.
Kwa hiyo naomba niambie, what is so special and unique kwenye teknolojia hii? It is so simple and is very old.
Wewe ni amature katika mambo haya na ni theoretician. Naweza nikakupa somo katika mambo haya ya energy kimahesabu na exergy yake. Sijui kama unajua maana ya exergy nini? Kama hujui basi definitio yake ni hii hapa: Share of energy that is converted into the desired, economically usable form (e.g. electrical energy)
Na kwenye Thermodynamics and natural sciences tunajifunza kuwa;
The law of conservation of energy expresses the fact that energy is a conserved quantity, i.e. that the total energy of a closed system does not change with time. Energy can be converted between different forms of energy, for example from kinetic energy to thermal energy. It can also be transported out of or into a system, but it is not possible to generate or destroy energy.
Nafikiri hapa sasa tutakuwa tumeelewana. Msipende kuwazarau watu msio wajua. Mimi sija soma ili nifaulu mitihani kama wewe. Nimesoma ili kuelewa vitu na kuvifanyia kazi.
Zaidi hapo chuma kwa kejerumani "Roheisen" (pig ion) inazalishwa kwa njia ya hewa (Oxygen) na ama gesi asilia au oil au makaa ya mawe na sio lazima umeme utumike. Hapa nina maanisha kuna viwanda ambavyo vinatumia process ya electrolytes kuproduce chuma ni ile chuma itwayo steel. Kuna aina nyingi sana za steel kulingana na matumizi yake.
Sasa turudi kwenye mada. Sikiliza msomi wetu, mimi kusema ule ukweli sielewi tatizo lako la ufahamu wa biashara ya chuma upo wapi? Kabla hatujalizungumzia swala la usafirishaji wa products zinazo tokana na chuma kwanza kabisa ulitakiwa ujue chuma ikitengenezwa ina kuwa katika forms gani.
Kujibu swali lako kuhusu swala la usafirishaji wa tonnes za chuma mbona ni kitu rahisi? Hizi nondo zinazo agizwa nchini zina safirishwa na nini kwenda mikoani? Bidhaa zilizo tengenezwa na chuma, I mean Steel, sio lazima zisafirishwe na treni, trucks zinaweza pia fanya kazi hiyo.
Ndiyo treni na reli ni vitu muhimu sana katika Heavy Metal Industries, lakini hata hivyo sioni kama ni kitu kikubwa sana kiasi ambacho nchi yenye chuma (iron ore) nyingi kiasi hicho kama Tanzania ikashindwa weka infrastructure za reli kutoka kiwandani mpaka sehemu tuseme bandari ipo.
Mbali na hayo reli ya kufika mpaka bandarini DSM tayari ipo kinacho takiwa ni kiongezeo tu cha kipande cha reli mpaka kiwandani.
Kuhusu running costs za kuendesha hicho kiwanda, na amount ya products zitakazohitajika kuzalishwa in order to break even? Inategemea na soko jinsi lilivyo na kama ulivyo sema aina na qaulity ya chuma tunayo produce.
Kwa conditions jinsi zilivyo nina uhakika kuwa chuma yetu itaweza ku compete na chuma inayo zalishwa nchi nyingine kama China kwa vitu viwili vikubwa; cha kwanza ni kwamba tuna cheap labor na pili vyanzo vya kutuwezesha sisi kuproduce umeme mwingi wa ku feed hicho kiwanda vipo, hivyo ambavyo nimevitaja hapo juu kama makaa ya mawe na gesi asilia amabvyo pia havita gharimu pesa nyingi kuvi utilize.
Kuhusu Dangote naweza sema kuwa baadhi ya watanzania na hata wizara ilitumika kumfanyia uhuni tu aanguke kwa sababu ya kuhofia kuua viwanda vilivyopo vya simenti kwa competitiveness ya product yake ukilinganisha na products za wazalishaji wengine kwenye bei. Lakini Rais alipoamua kuwa achimbe mwenyewe makaa ya mawe, naona mambo yameenda vizuri?
Na huu ndio upumbavu wa sisi watanzania tunaoufanya ambao nyie wakamba mlitakiwa kuukemea. Watanzania wanamtindo wa kuwakatisha tamaa wawekezaji kwa kutaka kupata faida kubwa ya mara moja kutoka kwa wawekezaji. Alafu wawekezaji wakishindwa na conditions tunazo wawekea, wakoma wa hii nchi badala ya kuyakemea hayo majitu yanayo fanya ujinga huo, wao ndiyo kwanza wanamtupia Magufuli lawama ya kwamba serikali yake inafukuza wawekezaji. Watanzania ni mijitu mijinga sana.
Sie kweli kwamba dunia ina ugomvi na China kutokana na cheap export ya chuma chake bali wachina wanautumia vibaya utajiri wao walio upata. Wachina wana lengo la kutaka kuutawala ulimwengu na kuua bishara zote zinazo fanywa na mataifa mengine, kitu ambacho hakuna taifa liko tayari kukubali dhamira mbovu ya namna hiyo. Ni nyie wakoma wa kiafrika ndiyo mnashangilia uzandiki wa namna hiyo. Kwa sababu hamwelewi vitu na hamtaki kusoma habari za nje. Mmeng'ang'ana sana na habari za udaku za nchini na za uchochezi za BBC, VOA, DW na Al Jaseera. Fungueni macho na tembeeni.
Kama haitoshi makampuni mengi ya china yana compete na makampuni ya nje kwa sababu serikali yao ina wapa Subvention wakati viwanda na makampuni mengi ya kigeni yanajitegemea yenyewe. Hayapati kubebwa kiasi kikubwa namna hiyo kama serikali ya China inavyo fanya kwa makampuni yake.
Zaidi ya hayo chukua kampuni kama hili la kutengeneza smart phones la HUAWEI, wewe unafikiri linauwezo gani wa kusambaza 5G technology network uliwenguni bila serikali kuishika mkono?
Ningekushauri kufanya uchunguzi kwanza kabla ya kuleta theories zako za vyuoni.
Muhimu ya yote kwanza ni wewe mwenyewe kutambua ili uwe na heavy industries unahitaji umeme wa uhakika, kitu ambacho Magufuli anakifanyia Tanzania kwa sasa. Kwa ivyo kitendo cha kulaumu hakuna kiwanda cha chuma kikubwa wakati umeme wenyewe tia maji maji ni kumuonea Magufuli.
Pili unaweza kuwa umesomea mambo ya electrical engineer (just giving you the benefit of the doubt) lakini inaonekana unapwaya kwenye strategic planning za energy security hasa kwa zama hizi za environmental concerns.
Duniani leo kuna umuhimu wa ku-balance kati ya reliable sources and looking after the environment using renewable sources. The goal is to reduce the Earth temperature, anyway kama ulivyogusia this was not the focus of your thread. However not sure if your familiar with international energy sufficient strategies as to what the world is doing (by that I mean developed nations own policies on that front) I got from reading from your post.
Now turudi kwenye icho kiwanda chako cha chuma kabla ya watu kukurupuka na kuamua kufanya investment kuna maswali ya kuulizana na kuyapatia majibu either wanafanya shughuli au wana outsource (logic map) kutokana na mazingira ya soko lao.
Moja ya swali ni strategic importance ya kufanya hiyo shughuli; jibu la haraka yes kiwanda cha chuma Tanzania kinahitajika in the long term and anyone can justify that. Tatizo wengi wenu mnaishia hapo kwenye decision za kutaka kuona serikali inafanya ivyo.
But that is just one question bado kuna maswali mengine luluki yanayo hitaji majibu na yenyewe to justify investment.
Je, tuna watu wenye ‘special knowledge’ ya kuendesha such an industry; ukiangalia kwenye ujenzi wa SGR kuna assembly plant imejengwa kati ya Dodoma na Morogoro inayosimamiwa na wageni. Ukisikiliza engineers wakitanzania walioajiriwa kama supervisors watakwambia hiyo ajira imewapa perspective na knowledge kubwa itakayo wasaidia baadae.
Haya unataka kiwanda cha heavy iron industry ushawahi liona lile li beseni linalopokea chuma na process yote ya iron casting hadi kupata kitu kama reli, unao hao wataalamu? If no inabidi ujibu utawatoa wapi, the answer is simple usomeshe au uajiri wageni? Kama kusomesha this takes time to educate and giving them experience huko nje ya nchi at least six years. Kwa ivyo busara ni kuajiri wageni kwanza walau usomeshe kwa miaka mitatu experience wapewe na wageni.
On the political side kiwanda icho icho kikianza na wageni mtapiga kelele mnawasomi sijui wamesoma ulaya hila serikali imeajiri wageni.
Kuna swala la cost kama ulivyoona Dangote ajajenga sehemu yake ya kuzalishia umeme kwa bahati mbaya it was part of his plan given our electricity capabilities. Kiwanda kikubwa cha saruji kama chake kinahitaji umeme mkubwa. Kwa ivyo kupata umeme wa uhakika ndio imebidi achukue hiyo option ili afikie production target zake za mwaka na arudishe hela yake kwa muda aliojipangia.
Ina maana kiwanda chako cha chuma na chenyewe itabidi ukijengee umeme wake, bado cost za kujenga kiwanda si ajabu ukijikuta gharama zake ni nusu ya bwawa la Nyerere? Is this opportunity cost worth it? Would such an industry enhance the economy given the pace of infrastructure industry, can we compete in cost compared to China in the end (who receive government subsidies to make their products comptitive), in terms of fighting for the market would a Kenyan builder opt to Tanzania Iron product over China because of price, do we have the infrastructure to ship to our neighbours in large volumes, how many tones would we have to produce just to break even?
Maswali mengine kama ya; dependability, speed to reach other market, flexibility, quality etc. Haya kuyaongelea shida maana yanataka supporting infrustructure kama tunaongelea heavy iron industry.
Ni hivi mnatabia ya kuongelea vitu juu juu tu lakini amuwelewi what it takes for those things to be successful. Hapo ata sijagusia strategic planning ya short term, mid term na wala long term ya kuhakikisha kiwanda kinabaki productive for years. Kitu ambacho ata wewe ujagusia kabisa.
Listen mwacheni Magufuli awaandalie mazingira ambayo watoto wenu watakuja faidika nayo kwa kuwatengenezea miundombinu itakayo kuja kuchochea uchumi muda wao sio kuandika mambo mnayoyajua kwa juu juu tu na kudhani ni mepesi kuyatekeleza.