We unaongelea future ya mbali sana.... maximum performance ya reli zetu itakua ni kati ya year 40 -70 from now ambapo oil bado itakua king..... Na hio future hio unayoongelea ikifika, hata nyaya za stima zitakua ni alloy tofauti, kutakua pia na transformers tofauti ambazo itabidi hata nyinyi mfanye upgrage ya line nzima kana kwamba mnaanza upya....
Anyway, kuhusu hio ratio ya 1:2....
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This is the problem which freight electrification faces. While electrification would represent a lessening in fuel expenses, especially as the price of oil is expected to rise another 20-30% over the long-term, this is a fairly minor savings for the railroads. Take, for example, Union Pacific, the largest freight railroad in the United States. Fuel expenses in 2011 came to 3.5 billion dollars, about one quarter of total expenses. At 6.5 gallons to the mile (a back calculation from 480-ton miles to the gallon and typical 3100 ton train) and $3.25 per gallon for a typical train vs 80 kilowatts per train mile (2 Class 92 locomotives) and 12 cents per kilowatt (LA Metro's cost of electricity), the cost would be halved, from $21.125 per train-mile to $9.6 per train-mile, resulting in a total annual savings of $2 billion, trending upwards as the price of oil rises faster than the price of electricity. However, this is actually less than the $2.243 billion which Union Pacific charged in freight surcharges. So long as the freight railroads are permitted to charge fuel surcharges, they have no economic incentive to electrify.
Reason & Rail: Why Freight Will Never Electrify